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F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

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F-35 Cancelled, then what ?

Old 15th Jun 2018, 15:38
  #11421 (permalink)  
 
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"Albeit late and at a price to make one's eyes bug out"....

True, but perhaps an understatement. This is no ordinary PITA combo of delays and overruns, because the world's largest air force has bet everything on the program's performance. And lost.

As Dave Deptula and others repeat often, the USAF's operational fighter force is now the oldest in its history, by an increasing margin. This would not be the case if F-35 had met its 2009 schedule and procurement cost, let alone its 2001 numbers. The AF has not reached its nominal replacement rate (based on 1900 fighters and a 30-year lifetime). And there is little money available to update F-15s and F-16s to anything near the standards of current production fighters without cutting further into F-35.

Meanwhile, as F-35s get delivered, but are not at a stage where the units can accept pilots fresh out of T-38s, the operational-but-not-deployed squadrons remaining can't produce enough qualified fighter pilots, and the AF is looking at a three-digit buy of armed trainers, which it will then be stuck with for many years.
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Old 15th Jun 2018, 20:15
  #11422 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
Hmm, still not cancelled.
Now, F-35's delivered to the UK. If we do a modest review of the history, we will note whence the majority of the complaining posters are from since about post 1 of this thread. (My "ya gotta be kiddin' me" response in re the two years to sort out the tail hook pales in comparison to the other noise still being heard ... )

So, ladies and gentlemen, now that it is not only not cancelled, but delivered (albeit late and at a price to make one's eyes bug out) might I ask one of you to start a new thread?
Any chance the moderator can be asked to rename the thread or is that a no no on this forum?
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Old 15th Jun 2018, 20:35
  #11423 (permalink)  
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If you look at the first post the original subject was as to what would be the consequences of the UK cancelling it’s F-35 order due to defence cuts - not the entire program being cancelled.

I would suggest that while the original tranche of 48 seem secure, the question of whether the entire planned purchase of around 140 will occur is still moot - particularly since the present defence minister seems to be leaning towards additional Typhoon, presumably for the same defence review/cost reasons.

The title would therefore still seem apt - if parochial......
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Old 17th Jun 2018, 00:39
  #11424 (permalink)  
 
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First European built F-35 for the RNLAF begins assembly

-RP
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Old 17th Jun 2018, 12:23
  #11425 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Rhino power View Post

"sniggers"
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Old 17th Jun 2018, 17:27
  #11426 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by George K Lee View Post
I'm not sure why F-35 fans need to preface all their thrice recycled PR pablum positive program news with insults. A Trumpish inferiority complex, no doubt.

That said, it's been the whiners who have, so far, correctly predicted the delays and increased costs of the program. We'll see how that plays out as the RAF gets intimately familiar with the system's demands, and gets the bill for the mandatory C2D2 upgrade package. And we'll see how long it takes to get to 800 FMS sales. Maybe North Korea will be added to the list now.

Jet engines whine, and they are powerful and essential to aerospace and defense...
George, your post above is nothing BUT a huge insulting whinge and whine.
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Old 17th Jun 2018, 19:40
  #11427 (permalink)  
 
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Seriously, Brat - I'm making the assertion that those who have held negative views of the program (the same goes for GAO, DOT&E and the Joint Estimating Team) have consistently been correct in predicting schedule and cost problems. Dispute that with facts if you can. (You can't.)

I don't believe, for example, that any program advocate predicted that the USAF would have trouble getting to 80/year. Or that the first step in Block 4 - however it is defined now - would be fixing stuff left over from Block 3.
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Old 17th Jun 2018, 21:42
  #11428 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by SamYeager View Post
Any chance the moderator can be asked to rename the thread or is that a no no on this forum?
There's no point in doing that, Sam.
This long running discussion began in 2010 and is aptly named for its intended purpose.
It's got over 11,000 posts. If you've followed the discussion here on PPRuNe as various concerns came to light on this ever-so-controversial aircraft, I think you'll find some nuggets of pure gold in and around the rants and piss taking.
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Old 17th Jun 2018, 22:21
  #11429 (permalink)  
 
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Indeed, T28B. I took the time to skim some early pages the other day. The thread started after the US program director, Mike Heinz, had been fired ("Heinz Gets Canned" as some evilminded headline writer put it) and just as the MoD began its lurch towards cats and traps, with Boeing quietly pushing the Super Hornet. The new program boss was in the process of defenestrating most of the senior management and it would take another three years before anyone could commit to a schedule or a budget. I suspect from that evidence that the picture on the inside was worse than the most avid naysayer could imagine.
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Old 18th Jun 2018, 20:13
  #11430 (permalink)  
 
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Hmm, still not cancelled.
Now, F-35's delivered to the UK. If we do a modest review of the history, we will note whence the majority of the complaining posters are from since about post 1 of this thread.
Well he may not have posted on PPRuNe, AFAIK, but…..

The Pentagon's own Director of OT&E - a retired USAF Major General, a respected and highly experienced TP has said:

"​​​​​​​The operational suitability of the F-35 fleet remains below requirements and is dependent on work-arounds that would not meet Service expectations in combat situations.”

This is not the conclusion of some jaded and cynical journalist, conditioned to expect the worst after living with the trials and tribulations of what has been a difficult, troubled and much delayed programme for most of his adult life. Nor has it originated from the F-35’s competitors. This is the judgement of the Pentagon’s own head of Operational Test and Evaluation – a high official with an unequalled view of the F-35 development, test and evaluation programme, and the senior advisor to the Secretary of Defense on operational and live fire test and evaluation of Department of Defense weapon systems.

Nor is Behler out of step with his predecessor, Dr. Michael Gilmore, who judged that “the operational suitability of all variants continues to be less than desired by the Services."

Last year, Gilmore concluded that “if used in combat, the F-35 aircraft will need support to locate and avoid modern threat ground radars, acquire targets, and engage formations of enemy fighter aircraft due to unresolved performance deficiencies and limited weapons carriage availability.”

The fact that they've delivered a handful to the UK proves nothing. It doesn't even answer the many criticisms levelled at the aircraft in the Times, by the NAO, or by the House of Commons Defence Committee in their paper.

​​​​​​​
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Old 18th Jun 2018, 20:16
  #11431 (permalink)  
 
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Or indeed at aerospaceanalysis/posts/906982352841257 on Facebook…..
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Old 19th Jun 2018, 07:25
  #11432 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.sea...emplate=ampart

It’s my understanding that these four were on their way to Israeli AF.
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Old 19th Jun 2018, 12:45
  #11433 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NineEighteen View Post
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.sea...emplate=ampart

It’s my understanding that these four were on their way to Israeli AF.
Your link is dodgy, at least according to my browser... (opera)

-RP
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Old 19th Jun 2018, 13:33
  #11434 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting. It worked on my phone but not in my Mac (Just to clarify, this is Portsmouth, New Hampshire, USA)



PORTSMOUTH -- Four of what appeared to be the newest models of the Air Force's F-35 fighter jets made a stop at the Portsmouth International Airport at Pease on Monday.

The newest jets represent the fifth generation of the Air Force fighters, according to Lockheed Martin's website, which manufactures the fighters.

Pease crash and rescue firefighters could be seen around the plane late Monday afternoon, which was sitting at Runway 34 near the Pease Golf Course.

A large group of onlookers stopped to get a look at the fighters.

Bruce Cultrera, the owner of Seacoast Helicopters, said he viewed two of the F-35s located in a hangar close to his, and another was on the runway.

"And they're all brand new," Cultrera said late Monday afternoon.

The F-35 Lightning II, as the new generation of fighters are called, combine "advanced stealth with fighter speed and agility, fully fused sensor information, network-enabled operations and advanced sustainment," according to the Lockheed Martin website.


[img]blob:https://www.pprune.org/5c91aefd-9e2d...7-7f017b5bf207

Source: seacoastonline dot com

Last edited by NineEighteen; 19th Jun 2018 at 20:02. Reason: Clarification on location
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Old 19th Jun 2018, 15:55
  #11435 (permalink)  
 
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​​​​​​​This picture raised a few questions in my mind

What current inventory weapons are currently cleared on the UK F-35B apart from Paveway IV? Has the UK acquired any of the weapons currently used by US F-35s? Is ASRAAM still cleared for external carriage only (eg in non-stealthy configuration)? Does the UK have any examples of the right variant of AMRAAM for internal carriage? When will the gun pod be available, and has the UK acquired any?
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Old 19th Jun 2018, 19:06
  #11436 (permalink)  
 
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Jackonicko, the answers to most of your queries are probably classified.

By the way, please PM me so that I can give you the address to which I'd like you to return my VC10K3 'secondary role' slides.
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Old 19th Jun 2018, 19:24
  #11437 (permalink)  
 
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Brat,
George, your post above is nothing BUT a huge insulting whinge and whine.
I think you are having trouble identifying successful aircraft programs from not so successful aircraft programs. Successful programs deliver excellent products as advertised and on time. Not so successful programs deliver marginal products late.

From history for example, there were two successful programs that developed aircraft in a timely manner and maintained their technological advantages against adversaries of their day.

The P-51 Mustang was designed in 1940 and 102 days later the first aircraft flew. By 1943, it was flying bomber escort missions over Germany and in early 1944 was flying combat missions. Over 15,000 were produced at a unit cost of $50,985 in 1945 $$$s. It was used in the early stages of the Korean War which started in 1950, until the F-86 took over. This is a definition of a successful program. Had the P-51 been developed on the F-35 timeline, it wouldn’t have been ready for combat until after the Korean War was over besides being obsoleted by the F-86 Sabre.

In 1945, design of what was to become the F-86 commenced. The first flight occurred in 1947 and the USAF had them in inventory starting in 1949 and early 1950. It became the primary combat fighter in the Korean War. 9,800 F-86 combat jets were produced at a typical unit cost of $219,460. It was the first American aircraft to have swept wings, an axial-flow J47 jet engine and the ability to break the sound barrier. Had the F-86 been developed on the F-35 timeline, it might have been good to go for the Vietnam War. These were two successful programs that developed aircraft in a timely manner, maintaining their technological advantages against adversaries of their day, there were others as well.

The F-16 & F-15 programs are good examples of more modern day successful programs. Sadly, the F-35 program is not a successful program, much like the F-111 program wasn’t that resulted in only 563 of all the variants being built and none for the USN that was one half the original program intent.

Whatever the numerous technological advantages being claimed for the F-35 some have been compromised by excessive time to the marketplace, e.g., real combat readiness with all the bells and whistles working as they should be. Excessive time always indicates excessive costs, failure to have had a robust risk management program to sort out a reliable technology path and a meaningful timeline forward.

It certainly is interesting to see four new F-35 aircraft sitting in the UK supposedly on the way to Israel, gifted by the US to Israel. The US gives a military support package to Israel that provides an average of $3.8 billion a year over the next decade, already the largest recipient of American aid, including financing for missile defense systems that defend against rockets fired by nearby adversary groups. Under a previous 10-year agreement that expires in 2018, the United States provided about $3 billion a year, but lately Congress has added up to $500 million a year for missile defense. Also, the Israelis can now use some of the money provided to buy military items from their own military industries, something that wasn't permitted in past agreements. The Israelis will no doubt put some of this money to use improving the capability of their new F-35s. They are extremely good at improvement technologies and they will accomplish it at a speed far greater than LM could or will. The Israeli Air Force will have the most advance F-35s long before anyone else and we might see how good they perform in actual combat...
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Old 19th Jun 2018, 20:28
  #11438 (permalink)  
 
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JN - Threshold Block 3 weapons for the B remain AIM-120C AMRAAM (internal), AIM-9X/ASRAAM (external), 2k JDAM (internal) and 500lb Paveway (either). According to Defense News, the UK jets will use the remaining ASRAAM current versions until they are replaced by the CAMM-based CSP in 2022. As long as the current inventory of AMRAAMs includes C-models, they will fit. I have no idea whether the UK is buying gun pods.
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Old 19th Jun 2018, 21:00
  #11439 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jackonicko View Post


This picture raised a few questions in my mind

What current inventory weapons are currently cleared on the UK F-35B apart from Paveway IV? Has the UK acquired any of the weapons currently used by US F-35s? Is ASRAAM still cleared for external carriage only (eg in non-stealthy configuration)? Does the UK have any examples of the right variant of AMRAAM for internal carriage? When will the gun pod be available, and has the UK acquired any?
Great shot. So many things to stop VL, doors how many? engine nozzle, even more doors, a part time lift fan and drive system, and then the usual stuff that fecks up, UC flaps etc etc..

Weapons, 4 bombs and SRAAM.

Hmm..internal carriage on the "B" Hmmmmm it's gone very quiet on that over the last year or so, well apart from AMRAAM fails to provide confidence in it's operation and the $52,000,000 Contract for the development and INTEGRATION of the SDB.

Who'd have thought it.# 1

Oh and..



Lockheed Martin Selects Raytheon To Deliver Next Generation F-35 Sensor System

The Raytheon-built DAS will be integrated into F-35 aircraft starting with Lot 15 aircraft, expected to begin deliveries in 2023.

Who'd have thought it # 2...

Last edited by glad rag; 20th Jun 2018 at 22:04.
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Old 19th Jun 2018, 21:06
  #11440 (permalink)  
 
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Lockheed Martin to deliver first F-35A to Turkey next week

(Flight Global)

Lockheed Martin plans to formally deliver an F-35A Lighting II to Turkey in a ceremony in Fort Worth, Texas on 21 June, despite protests by US lawmakers and diplomats.

The F-35A will remain in the USA until Turkish pilots are trained to operate the aircraft, upon which time it will be flown to Turkey.

However, US representatives and senators have objected to Turkey receiving the state-of-the-art stealth fighter after the country signed a contract with Russia to buy the Almaz-Antey S-400 Triumf system, one of the most advanced surface-to-air missile systems on the export market. It's advertised by Rosoboronexport with an "anti-stealth range" up to 81nm (150km).

Lawmakers and State Department officials have also complained about what they say is Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s disregard for the rule of law, diminishment of individual freedoms, consolidation of power and strategic decisions out of line with US interests.

Separate efforts within the US Senate and House of Representatives are underway to block the transfer of the aircraft to Turkey unless the country declines to purchase the S-400 anti-aircraft system and changes its other policies.

Erdoğan seemed to up the ante when he reportedly announced in an interview on Turkish 24 TV that he had reached out to Russian President Vladimir Putin with a proposal for Turkey to jointly produce the S-500 anti-aircraft missile system with Russia. The S-500 announcement was made on the same day, 14 June 2018, that Lockheed announced the rollout ceremony of the F-35.

Turkey, a NATO ally and partner in fighting ISIS, has ordered a total of 100 conventional take-off and landing F-35As. The first batch of 14 are already purchased. A total of 30 F-35As are scheduled for delivery to the Turkish Air Force by the end of 2022.

For its part, Lockheed has tried to avoid the controversy and billed the upcoming ceremony as routine.

“The F-35 program traditionally hosts a ceremony to recognise every US and international customers’ first aircraft,” said Lockheed. “The roll out ceremony for Turkey’s first F-35 aircraft is scheduled for June 21. The aircraft will then ferry to Luke Air Force Base, Arizona, where Turkish pilots will join the F-35A training pool.”

It is not clear when Turkey might be able to move its F-35s from Luke AFB, Arizona to within its borders. Questions about that timeline emailed to the F-35 Joint Programme Office were not answered.

The Royal Air Force received its initial four F-35Bs at RAF Marham in Norfolk, Britain on 6 June some six years after that country formally was delivered its first aircraft. For its part, the Israeli Air Force landed its initial two F-35Is on home soil in December 2016 about five months after the formal rollout ceremony.
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