PVR rates at 10 year high.
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Dallas, 15,000 troops have exceeded harmony guidelines in recent times. 15,000 not enough for you?
Adam Ingram, former Minister, stated that he didn't care about harmony; as long as the task was being achieved, then the Armed Forces were not overstretched. It is this cold, calculated view on overstretch, that has meant that troops serving in Afg and Iraq have not been given time to recover from physical and mental injuries, time to be with their families and get to know their kids again. This has led to the unprecedented rush to the door.
If you can't see that, then you are as deluded as CDS, Browne and the rest.
The future crisis has been caused by the current policy of managed overstretch meeting the task.
Adam Ingram, former Minister, stated that he didn't care about harmony; as long as the task was being achieved, then the Armed Forces were not overstretched. It is this cold, calculated view on overstretch, that has meant that troops serving in Afg and Iraq have not been given time to recover from physical and mental injuries, time to be with their families and get to know their kids again. This has led to the unprecedented rush to the door.
If you can't see that, then you are as deluded as CDS, Browne and the rest.
The future crisis has been caused by the current policy of managed overstretch meeting the task.
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'Any takers on the state of the RN, Army and RAF by then?'
Apparently, 80% of the RAF budget currently goes on Typhoon.
Doesn't leave much financial support for the guys on the ground does it?
PingDit
Apparently, 80% of the RAF budget currently goes on Typhoon.
Doesn't leave much financial support for the guys on the ground does it?
PingDit
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nige
15,000 is way too many, but my point is the task - the fighting, the supporting, the resupplying - are all being done, albeit with men and women who are exceeding guidelines, but it is being done.
It's when we physically don't have those people because, as you alluded to, because existing conditions have forced them to rush to the door, we are in deep trouble. In my opinion that is the point of 'overstretch' and we're certainly headed towards it.
Until that point, when Pte Smith has to routinely fire 2 weapons because there isn't anyone else, until there routinely isn't a helo to drop him more ammo, until the airbridge grinds to a halt every day, we're struggling and in a dire situation, but the boys and girls are making it work.
My opinion is subjective, but I also think we need to keep a word up our sleeves for when it breaks down. Because we're going to need it.
15,000 is way too many, but my point is the task - the fighting, the supporting, the resupplying - are all being done, albeit with men and women who are exceeding guidelines, but it is being done.
It's when we physically don't have those people because, as you alluded to, because existing conditions have forced them to rush to the door, we are in deep trouble. In my opinion that is the point of 'overstretch' and we're certainly headed towards it.
Until that point, when Pte Smith has to routinely fire 2 weapons because there isn't anyone else, until there routinely isn't a helo to drop him more ammo, until the airbridge grinds to a halt every day, we're struggling and in a dire situation, but the boys and girls are making it work.
My opinion is subjective, but I also think we need to keep a word up our sleeves for when it breaks down. Because we're going to need it.
In my opinion that is the point of 'overstretch' and we're certainly headed towards it....
Until that point, when Pte Smith has to routinely fire 2 weapons because there isn't anyone else, until there routinely isn't a helo to drop him more ammo, until the airbridge grinds to a halt every day, we're struggling and in a dire situation, but the boys and girls are making it work.
Until that point, when Pte Smith has to routinely fire 2 weapons because there isn't anyone else, until there routinely isn't a helo to drop him more ammo, until the airbridge grinds to a halt every day, we're struggling and in a dire situation, but the boys and girls are making it work.
But I agree you have hit the nail on the head with the can do attitude of personnel papering over the cracks created by the incompetence of spineless yes men, accountants and useless politicians. But that is all we are doing, papering over the cracks. How many body bags turning up at Brize will it take? How many delayed Timmy flights out of theatre leaving hundreds of troops stranded at end of tour and missing R&R will it take? How many scrubbed sorties will it take due to ac u/s, lack of crews etc will it take?
Just what will it take for those at the top to see what is REALLY going on and that they are crippling us militarily for the next generation at least? I have no idea, but 200 coffins turning up at Brize since 2001 doesn't seem to have made much of an impact on those taking the decisions!
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"It's when we physically don't have those people because, as you alluded to, because existing conditions have forced them to rush to the door, we are in deep trouble. In my opinion that is the point of 'overstretch' and we're certainly headed towards it."
Dallas
My subjective view is that when you get to this point you are not overstreched but broken.
regards
retard
Dallas
My subjective view is that when you get to this point you are not overstreched but broken.
regards
retard
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Ping Dit said:
Which is of course utter tosh. The Typhoon attracts less than 10% of the Air Command budget. The equipment budget isn't the RAF's in any case but the Typhoon programme wouldn't get close to 80% of that either. Do check facts.
Apparently, 80% of the RAF budget currently goes on Typhoon.
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The PVR rate may be high but Harry Staish at Odious assures us that we have the lowest rate of PVR's in the RAF.
He wasn't quite so forthcoming with figures for personnel who aren't signing on though....
He wasn't quite so forthcoming with figures for personnel who aren't signing on though....
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Reallity will bite sooner than you think
Numbers aren't everything. The dilution rate of experience is cutting really deeply in some Branches (one of which has 70% of their SO2s with less than 3 years in rank).
Those taking options aren't 'routinely' counted, however, I understand that this was researched at Air Command recently and the results locked away securely!
The headline rate of PVRs is increasing, as are the option departures, hence the increased numbers on OACTU (DIOT for the elderly) next year where courses are to be increased to 150 (vice current 120). In addition they are running 3 recruitment boards a week at OASC (Vice 1) in order to get as many through the door as possible.
Just my humble opinion, but these increases are being brought in to paper over the crack that will start to appear next year in the officer cadre of the RAF. Dependent on which source you use, there will be a deficit of 24% of officers (i.e. 24% undermanned not recruitment) either next year or within 2 years. Whilst the time varies, independent sources have used the same number
A spokesman for the Ministry of Defence said the forces were working hard but the current situation was "manageable".
Now that's what I call unmanageable.
Those taking options aren't 'routinely' counted, however, I understand that this was researched at Air Command recently and the results locked away securely!
The headline rate of PVRs is increasing, as are the option departures, hence the increased numbers on OACTU (DIOT for the elderly) next year where courses are to be increased to 150 (vice current 120). In addition they are running 3 recruitment boards a week at OASC (Vice 1) in order to get as many through the door as possible.
Just my humble opinion, but these increases are being brought in to paper over the crack that will start to appear next year in the officer cadre of the RAF. Dependent on which source you use, there will be a deficit of 24% of officers (i.e. 24% undermanned not recruitment) either next year or within 2 years. Whilst the time varies, independent sources have used the same number
A spokesman for the Ministry of Defence said the forces were working hard but the current situation was "manageable".
Now that's what I call unmanageable.
Last edited by In Tor Wot; 21st Jul 2007 at 19:41.
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In Tor Wot, aah yes, but you miss the subtle fact that the person who made that statement is Sir Jock Stirrup and he will not be in that post in 2 years time, so it really doesn't matter, does it?
More seriously, I completely agree with your post. Crisis within 18-24 months on the cards. And I also agree with another poster, this will take a generation to sort out.
The RAF is being sold down the river by people who should know better.
More seriously, I completely agree with your post. Crisis within 18-24 months on the cards. And I also agree with another poster, this will take a generation to sort out.
The RAF is being sold down the river by people who should know better.
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Funny you should say that 'In Tor Wot' . I went through OASC in May 05 Literally as the doors were being closed on the numbers being accepted in due to the cut backs, and we all said then, even the selection panel agreed that this would bite the RAF hard on the ass in a few years. How true is has come! There was talk them and this too came from the boarding officers that the current twice a week selection was going to be reduced to one and less taken on at any time. The RAF has deserved all it gets. Who the hell would want to join up now.
It's hardly surprising people are voting with their feet. Two wars fought for a regime that is good at waving the flag and wishing us all well, but the support is rubbish; poor equipment, lower pay than a good deal of our coalition partners (the Ozzie I sit next to is on tax-free pay, and extra allowances, and so stands to make in excess of £35,000 for his 6-monther!!), sub-standard medical care for our injured...and by injured we don't mean broken toes, it's multiple amputations, burns, and psycological damage too. The increase in tour length to 6 or 9-months will increase the push factor.
Thread Starter
In the last 30 years, the RAF has seen a progressive deterioration in every field.
Jock Strap should bloody well think back to how it was when we were both at RAFC Cranwell!
To restore the RAF to even half of what it was back then would take billions and decades to achieve.
As well as the closure or emasculation of all these places which were still open when I joined:
Abingdon
Acklington
Andover
Aston Down
Ballykelly
Bassingbourn
Bentwaters
Bicester
Biggin Hill
Binbrook
Bovingdon
Brawdy
Chivenor
Church Fenton
Cranwell North
Driffield
Elvington
Finningley
Fulbeck
Gaydon
Gravely
Greenham Common
Hamble
Honington
Hullavington
Kemble
Leconfield
Lindholme
Little Rissington
Manby
Newton
North Luffenham
North Weald
Oakington
Ouston
Pershore
Scampton
Spitalgate
St Davids
Stradishall
Strubby
Swinderby
Syerston
Tangmere
Ternhill
Thorney Island
Waterbeach
Wattisham
Watton
West Malling
West Raynham
White Waltham
There is the loss both of core military capabilities (strategic bombing and photographic reconnaissance, for example) - but more importantly, the loss of personnel in sufficient numbers or even the means to train them.
It is not a happy picture.
As they sowed, so shall they reap....
Jock Strap should bloody well think back to how it was when we were both at RAFC Cranwell!
To restore the RAF to even half of what it was back then would take billions and decades to achieve.
As well as the closure or emasculation of all these places which were still open when I joined:
Abingdon
Acklington
Andover
Aston Down
Ballykelly
Bassingbourn
Bentwaters
Bicester
Biggin Hill
Binbrook
Bovingdon
Brawdy
Chivenor
Church Fenton
Cranwell North
Driffield
Elvington
Finningley
Fulbeck
Gaydon
Gravely
Greenham Common
Hamble
Honington
Hullavington
Kemble
Leconfield
Lindholme
Little Rissington
Manby
Newton
North Luffenham
North Weald
Oakington
Ouston
Pershore
Scampton
Spitalgate
St Davids
Stradishall
Strubby
Swinderby
Syerston
Tangmere
Ternhill
Thorney Island
Waterbeach
Wattisham
Watton
West Malling
West Raynham
White Waltham
There is the loss both of core military capabilities (strategic bombing and photographic reconnaissance, for example) - but more importantly, the loss of personnel in sufficient numbers or even the means to train them.
It is not a happy picture.
As they sowed, so shall they reap....
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Beagle
Honington - emasculate?
Honington is the depot of the RAF Regiment and home to several RAF Regiment sqns that are demonstrating daily in hot and sandy places that they are neither feeble nor ineffective - nor are they deprived of force or vigour.
Honington - emasculate?
emasculate deprive of force or vigour; make feeble or ineffective
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But the RAF Honington of today, like the majority of the rest of the Service, operates forces that are actually used.
Last edited by Climebear; 21st Jul 2007 at 22:25.
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The PVR rate has trebled over the past few months.
The only way of obtaining this knowledge is for the desk officers to physically count the paper applications that pass accross their desk, there is no other way to monitor the pvr outflow rates.
The sad thing is that ACOS manning have no idea how to rectify this unsustainable exodus.
That said-neither do I!
1. Work/Life balance-There is none, and there will continue to be none for the foreseeable future.
2. Money-I'm unaffordable to a public Service. A meer 59k is peanuts when I will die within 5 years of retirement if I stay in 'til 55 (statistically-of course).(and get a 50% pay rise when I leave!)
3. Working conditions. Ummm-not so modern and comfortable-the prospect of RAF stansted-even with flag poles out the front......
4. Working within an honest forward looking, innovative public Service that is both focused and driven towards excellence-thought it was there when I joined, occasions when it was, certainly not now.
I now find myself working for a company that is run along civilian lines (but without the freedom of manouevre and competence) with just 'acceptable' standards, that expects the loyalty and committment of a public Service.
You cannot pay for one and expect another.
When I leave I will improve 1-3 and most of 4.
Statistically and morally (first time for everything!)I have to leave.
The only way of obtaining this knowledge is for the desk officers to physically count the paper applications that pass accross their desk, there is no other way to monitor the pvr outflow rates.
The sad thing is that ACOS manning have no idea how to rectify this unsustainable exodus.
That said-neither do I!
1. Work/Life balance-There is none, and there will continue to be none for the foreseeable future.
2. Money-I'm unaffordable to a public Service. A meer 59k is peanuts when I will die within 5 years of retirement if I stay in 'til 55 (statistically-of course).(and get a 50% pay rise when I leave!)
3. Working conditions. Ummm-not so modern and comfortable-the prospect of RAF stansted-even with flag poles out the front......
4. Working within an honest forward looking, innovative public Service that is both focused and driven towards excellence-thought it was there when I joined, occasions when it was, certainly not now.
I now find myself working for a company that is run along civilian lines (but without the freedom of manouevre and competence) with just 'acceptable' standards, that expects the loyalty and committment of a public Service.
You cannot pay for one and expect another.
When I leave I will improve 1-3 and most of 4.
Statistically and morally (first time for everything!)I have to leave.
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RAF Deaths
Frm Sunday Times
........The men had been resting as there were no aircraft moving and were about to go back on patrol when the mortar landed, killing them instantly. Squadron Leader Jason Sutton, their commanding officer, described the men’s loss as “simply devastating” to his small unit of about 100 men. The deaths take to 162 the total of British servicemen and women who have died since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Of those, 126 were killed in action.
Yesterday a military source in Basra said in an e-mail that attacks on the base there had reached up to 30 a day and the forces were “relying on luck to keep them alive”
He added that many personnel were living in tents with no overhead protection. The source said the attack that killed the RAF men had also caused “lots of injuries”........
I also understand that people are relying on luck to keep them alive. 300 rocket attacks last month and a casevaced air traffic controller due stress of attack after only 2 odd weeks in theatre. Four years on and men are still sleeping in tents despite the continuous attacks. When AVM Loader visited recently his pep talk, (allegedly), to troops in Basra was that being in RAF these days was like being on the *train to glasgow. Its a bit rough and if they dont like it they can just get off the train!***
Now then, this is the RAF High Command approach to leadership. No word of improving the safety of the accommodation at Basra, just tough words about the future. Well, I have some words for AVM Loader. Given the choice between the RAF train to Glasgow and the Virgin train to Glasgow, I'd much rather travel with Virgin thank you very much. Judging by the PVR figures, a great many people are jumping off the train and catching the Virgin special.
........The men had been resting as there were no aircraft moving and were about to go back on patrol when the mortar landed, killing them instantly. Squadron Leader Jason Sutton, their commanding officer, described the men’s loss as “simply devastating” to his small unit of about 100 men. The deaths take to 162 the total of British servicemen and women who have died since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Of those, 126 were killed in action.
Yesterday a military source in Basra said in an e-mail that attacks on the base there had reached up to 30 a day and the forces were “relying on luck to keep them alive”
He added that many personnel were living in tents with no overhead protection. The source said the attack that killed the RAF men had also caused “lots of injuries”........
I also understand that people are relying on luck to keep them alive. 300 rocket attacks last month and a casevaced air traffic controller due stress of attack after only 2 odd weeks in theatre. Four years on and men are still sleeping in tents despite the continuous attacks. When AVM Loader visited recently his pep talk, (allegedly), to troops in Basra was that being in RAF these days was like being on the *train to glasgow. Its a bit rough and if they dont like it they can just get off the train!***
Now then, this is the RAF High Command approach to leadership. No word of improving the safety of the accommodation at Basra, just tough words about the future. Well, I have some words for AVM Loader. Given the choice between the RAF train to Glasgow and the Virgin train to Glasgow, I'd much rather travel with Virgin thank you very much. Judging by the PVR figures, a great many people are jumping off the train and catching the Virgin special.
Last edited by nigegilb; 22nd Jul 2007 at 09:02.
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Or as heard from one of the posters last week, the mis-match between out and in-flow is such that the RAF is rapidly heading for the state whereby it will be unable to sustain its own training regime, mainly on the aircrew front admittedly. Once the service reduces beyond a certain level, it goes down past a self-sustaining level and unless something drastic is done, will be virtually irrecoverable with the current commitments.
It's a worry.
It's a worry.
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PVR rates may well be at a 10 year high but, as said previously, the danger in the meduim term (from an aircrew perspective) is retention past 16/38.
The vast majority of the captains where I am don't want to carry on past 38, can see no reason why promotion is the way forward, and are merely staying in for the hours, pension and gratuity. Which means further erosion of experince on the front line sqns.
There's no question that 99% of the Sqn are can-do people and take pride what we're doing. However the constant erosion of standards, life/work balance and increase in time away is slowly but surely undermining the career aspirations of the boys. Most (me included of late) think of it more as a job and not so much as a way of life which is very sad.
The reason I will stay in is because of the poeple I work and fly with. But I will go at 38, and I know lots who will too.
The state of the RAF has changed my thinking dramatically so much so, that I would now urge my son not to join. If we had a military to be proud of then I wouldn't hesitate, and that for me is the saddest part.
The vast majority of the captains where I am don't want to carry on past 38, can see no reason why promotion is the way forward, and are merely staying in for the hours, pension and gratuity. Which means further erosion of experince on the front line sqns.
There's no question that 99% of the Sqn are can-do people and take pride what we're doing. However the constant erosion of standards, life/work balance and increase in time away is slowly but surely undermining the career aspirations of the boys. Most (me included of late) think of it more as a job and not so much as a way of life which is very sad.
The reason I will stay in is because of the poeple I work and fly with. But I will go at 38, and I know lots who will too.
The state of the RAF has changed my thinking dramatically so much so, that I would now urge my son not to join. If we had a military to be proud of then I wouldn't hesitate, and that for me is the saddest part.