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Iranian Guard Targeting US Troops?

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Old 31st Jan 2007, 12:36
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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Iranian Guard Targeting US Troops?

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- The Pentagon is investigating whether a recent attack on a military compound in Karbala was carried out by Iranians or Iranian-trained operatives, two officials from separate U.S. government agencies said. "People are looking at it seriously," one of the officials said.

That official added the Iranian connection was a leading theory in the investigation into the January 20 attack that killed five soldiers. The second official said: "We believe it's possible the executors of the attack were Iranian or Iranian-trained."

Five U.S. soldiers were abducted and killed in the sophisticated attack by men wearing U.S.-style uniforms, according to U.S. military reports. Both officials stressed the Iranian-involvement theory is a preliminary view, and there is no final conclusion. They agreed this possibility is being looked at because of the sophistication of the attack and the level of coordination. "This was beyond what we have seen militias or foreign fighters do," the second official said.

The investigation has led some officials to conclude the attack was an "inside job" -- that people inside the compound helped the attackers enter unstopped. Investigators are looking particularly at how the attackers got U.S.-style military uniforms and SUVs similar to those used by U.S. troops. "'Who was behind it all?' was the fundamental question," the first official said.

The U.S. military on Friday confirmed accounts that the soldiers had been abducted and driven away from their compound. The military had said in a January 20 press release only that "five U.S. soldiers were killed and three wounded while repelling the attack."

Some Iraqis speculate that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps carried out the attack in retaliation for the capture by U.S. forces of five of its members in Irbil, Iraq, on January 11, according to a Time.com article published Tuesday. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has a reputation for taking harsh and unrelenting revenge on its enemies, the Time.com article says.

The five Iranians are still in U.S. custody.

The U.S.-led coalition has said a preliminary investigation found links between the detainees and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which has provided funds, weapons, bomb technology and training to extremist groups in Iraq.

The Bush administration has authorized U.S. forces to kill or capture Iranian agents plotting attacks in Iraq, a U.S. national security official said Friday. "If Iran escalates its military actions in Iraq to the detriment of our troops and/or innocent Iraqi people, we will respond firmly," Bush said Monday in an interview with National Public Radio.


Time Article: .....American forces still hold five members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Arrested by American forces in Erbil on Jan. 11, the five are accused by the Administration of helping the Iraqi opposition kill Americans.

I've written here before that the IRGC has a long history of calculated violence against its enemies, particularly the United States. The Administration's accusations are plausible. But at the same time the U.S. needs to remember what a serious spoiler the IRGC can be when provoked.

In July 1982, after a Christian Lebanese militia kidnapped the Iranian charge d'affaires in Beirut, the IRGC set in motion a campaign of retaliatory kidnappings, hijackings and assassinations against the U.S. and the West. The Iranian charge was a senior IRGC officer, and the IRGC had no intention of letting his kidnapping go unanswered. The IRGC campaign lasted for more than 10 years and dragged the U.S. into Iran-contra and the arms-for-hostages deal that nearly brought down the Reagan Administration.

Some Iraqis speculate that the IRGC has already started a campaign of revenge with the killing of five American soldiers in Karbala on Jan. 20, nine days after the arrest of the IRGC members in Erbil. As the logic of the rumor goes, five American soldiers were killed for five Iranians taken; Karbala was an IRGC message to release its colleagues — or else.

The speculation that Karbala was an IRGC operation may have as much to do with Iraqis' respect for IRGC capacity for revenge as it does with the truth. Nevertheless, we should count on the IRGC gearing up for a fight. And we shouldn't underestimate its capacities.

Aside from arming the opposition, the IRGC is capable of doing serious damage to our logistics lines. I called up an American contractor in Baghdad who runs convoys from Kuwait every day and asked him just how much damage. "Let me put it this way," he said. "In Basra today the currency is the Iranian toman, not the Iraqi dinar." He said his convoys now are forced to pay a 40% surcharge to Shi'a militias and Iraqi police in the south, many of whom are affiliated with IRGC.

Mindful of the spreading chaos in Iraq, President Bush has promised not to take the war into Iran. But it won't matter to the IRGC. There is nothing the IRGC likes better than to fight a proxy war in another country.
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Old 31st Jan 2007, 15:55
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There is nothing the IRGC likes better than to fight a proxy war in another country.
Cant think what country that reminds me of.

Invade/attack Iran anyone? USA, Israel, UK perhaps? At least they won't need to invent a 'WMD' type excuse for pre-emptive/preventative action, just some other sort.

Wonder what that could be...
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Old 31st Jan 2007, 17:18
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As the logic of the rumor goes, five American soldiers were killed for five Iranians taken; Karbala was an IRGC message to release its colleagues — or else.
Good thing I am not in charge....I would hang the five and tell the IRGC that is the fate of anyone else caught with their fingers in the pie. To remind them of the seriousness....I would also take out five Iranian oil platforms as a subtle reminder of what is like to play in the big leagues. They would either decide to stifle or get stuck in....both of which can be dealt with.

Thus far, the IRGC have not been slapped...and negotiation will not work with them. They see us as weak and vulnerable because we have not stood against them as we should have.

I agree with everything you say....they are a force to be reckoned with and not be under-estimated.
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Old 31st Jan 2007, 17:31
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As the logic of the rumor goes,
Still, it's a good job future Military Strategy appears to be based on rumour and speculation, as we have a solid track record in this region. If only there were some recent example we could fall back on, where pi$$-poor intelligence analysis got us into a spot of bother with the locals...
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Old 1st Feb 2007, 04:11
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Sasless every time tyou go for the 'confrontation' approach. This whole attitude that any problem has to be solved with a 'war on...' or a 'war against...' or a 'either for us or against us' isn't working. It only did during a total global war which killed millions of people and it hasn't worked since.

Lets try the little bit cleverer option eh? Talk.
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Old 1st Feb 2007, 09:23
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That's a very shortsighted comment, Ratty. One may think of this in the context of the wider picture that may, in fact, become an air power issue in the future...
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Old 1st Feb 2007, 09:30
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How convienent that that Iran is attempting to arm wrestle the USA from a distance. It's almost an invitation for an attack on Iranian interests which of course would prompt a further response from Iran, just what the USA wants but not what it needs.

Dick Chenney and crew desperately need to wedge the USA into Iran before their front man GW Bush is ousted from office in a couple of years. But leaving the strongest to last is a recipe for disaster as I'm sure Iran will offer
a stern response with home field advantage, practicality will win over ego. This is a shame I don't want to see the once great nation (USA) stagger ever lower in it's drunken state
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Old 1st Feb 2007, 09:55
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Originally Posted by SASless
To remind them of the seriousness....I would also take out five Iranian oil platforms as a subtle reminder of what is like to play in the big leagues.
Last time I looked, Iran weren't playing five-a-side with jumpers for goalposts.
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Old 1st Feb 2007, 10:24
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unfortunately, I dont think it is posturing that is causing the yanks
1) to double their strategic petroleum reserve... (http://www.axcessnews.com/modules/wf...rticleid=12809)
2) Placing 2 Aircraft carriers in the gulf...(http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070103/...a_gulf_navy_dc)
3) Increasing purchases of Aviation Fuel in the Gulf...
If they do this, it will be the biggest walk into a trap ever made. The current Premier of Iran is standing on very thin ice with the populace; it would be best left alone to allow democracy, as supported by Iran, to oust this despot. Any action against iran, pictures of dead iranian babies in the news, poisoned water supplies after the yanks bomb factories producing enriched uranium, will only prove right everything Ahmadinejad has said so far...

Just as the american populace will do with the incumbent nut in place in America at the next elections. I dont fancy risking my life for incumbent nutters over arguments that have very little do with the real world and lots to do with ego.
 
Old 1st Feb 2007, 10:39
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Well said my friend. Anybody who has seen those mountains along the Iran/Iraq border from low level near Al Amarah would certainly agree with you. Not the kind of place you really want to play a mass version of Op Anaconda in.
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