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Future Carrier (Including Costs)

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Future Carrier (Including Costs)

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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 07:57
  #5521 (permalink)  
 
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I see what many forecast has come to pass - a Royal Navy with half its surface destroyers and frigates ships in repair/upgrade (list in today's "Times") and the QE "dehumidifying" leaving 9 serious vessels available world-wide
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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 10:23
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The list (table) mentioned in #5526 is in this Times article:-

US ‘offered help in strait days before Stena Impero was seized’
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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 11:42
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really depressing I thought

Didn't Nelson always say he could never have enough frigates?
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 09:06
  #5524 (permalink)  
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Yes but Nelson did not live in an age of submarines, aircraft, guided missiles..... Ships were simpler then,sailors needed less training, and were less likely to walk for disruption to family life!

The management of news from HMS Queen Elizabeth has been terrible. In an information has been dreadful, but she was been shipshape enough for a families day and to be moved in port:



I believe most of the FOST objectives had been met - fire fighting and damage control exercises, casualty drills, machinery and steering breakdown drills, boat operations, a lot of rotary wing flying with Merlin HM2, Merlin HC4, Chinooks, and Apache, gunnery serials against both waterborne and airborne threats, and controlling fighters.
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 09:24
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The carriers strike me as the Defence equvalent to HS2.
  • Somebody, for all the wrong reasons, decides its a good idea to build two massive Carriers
  • Defence budget gets cut but the Carriers have gone too far to cancel
  • The carriers are built but there's nothing for them to do, no-on to man them and we cant afford to use them
  • The decision to buy the carriers has far reaching implications, meaning we've bought the least capable and most expensive version of the F35
  • The carriers are expensive to maintain and unreliable, spening more time in port than at sea
  • The second carrier will only make a bad situation worse
  • Meanwhile what's left of the RN stumbles on, starved of manpower and funds

You literally couldnt think of a worse, more catastrophic state of affairs, for what once was a Navy that ruled the waves.
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 10:51
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Originally Posted by andrewn
The carriers strike me as the Defence equvalent to HS2.
<snip>
You literally couldnt think of a worse, more catastrophic state of affairs, for what once was a Navy that ruled the waves.
The word "cobblers" springs to mind but it's clear that you have already made up your mind.
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 17:01
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WEBF,


.. Ships were simpler then, sailors needed less training, and were less likely to walk for disruption to family life!

Oh come on! I think that they were FAR more likely to 'walk" seeing as they had to be press ganged in the first place!
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 17:22
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Untrue - the role of the press gang has been hugely exaggerated. Even in the days of sail most men were volunteers - of course life ashore in those day or aboard a merchant ship was not much fun. The exact phrase I was going to use was "log onto JPA and opt for six (or is it seven?) clicks to freedom."
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 18:53
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Originally Posted by andrewn
The carriers strike me as the Defence equvalent to HS2.
<snip>
You literally couldnt think of a worse, more catastrophic state of affairs, for what once was a Navy that ruled the waves.
Originally Posted by SamYeager
The word "cobblers" springs to mind but it's clear that you have already made up your mind.
I've got bad news for you, Sam. The PM's senior adviser is exercising firm control of the agenda across Whitehall and has the same view of the carriers as andrewn:

Originally Posted by Dominic Cummings
...aircraft carriers are no longer safe from cheap missiles. I started making these arguments in 2004 when it was already clear that the UK Ministry of Defence carrier project was a disaster. Since then it has been a multi-billion pound case study in Whitehall incompetence, the MoD’s appalling ‘planning’ system and corrupt procurement, and Westminster’s systemic inability to think about complex long-term issues. Talking to someone at the MoD last year they said that in NATO wargames the UK carriers immediately bug out for the edge of the game to avoid being sunk. Of course they do. Carriers cannot be deployed against top tier forces because of the vast and increasing asymmetry between their cost and vulnerability to cheap sinking.
If he's wrong, someone needs to get him briefed PDQ before the next spending round. He's a disciple of Boyd so is probably clued-up enough about combat aircraft to ask awkward questions about F35 combat radius versus safe stand-off, tanker requirements, tanker basing and vulnerability, etc. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in No10 when the cost of protecting the boat against DF-21 type threats is added to the through-life bill for a capability that was considered only marginally cheaper to keep than to cancel just a few years ago. The problem the carriers now pose for Defence is that they're too prominent not to be used, and too valuable and symbolic to put in danger (imagine one being lost with 30+ aircraft and thousands of souls aboard). This creates an imperative to invest more and more in protecting something that is nowhere near central to our strategic requirement. That's politics...

Last edited by Easy Street; 3rd Aug 2019 at 19:13.
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 20:36
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Easy Street,



I've got bad news for you, Sam. The PM's senior adviser is exercising firm control of the agenda across Whitehall and has the same view of the carriers as andrewn:


He really, really is not.
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 20:56
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
Easy Street,



I've got bad news for you, Sam. The PM's senior adviser is exercising firm control of the agenda across Whitehall and has the same view of the carriers as andrewn:


He really, really is not.
Explain Penny Mordaunt's sacking, Steve Baker's refusal to take a ministerial post and the sea-change on Brexit then. Big decisions have always been the preserve of No10 and the Treasury but they're becoming ever more so. Do you really think the rush of policy announcements since Boris took over is a result of considered analysis by the departments concerned? Making SPADs report to No10 is not new, but the zeal with which it's being done is.

Edit: 'an Army of 82000' and the Strike Brigade concept are other recent examples of policy being made in No10 without MOD's endorsement.

,

Last edited by Easy Street; 3rd Aug 2019 at 21:15.
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 21:02
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
Easy Street,



I've got bad news for you, Sam. The PM's senior adviser is exercising firm control of the agenda across Whitehall and has the same view of the carriers as andrewn:


He really, really is not.
I take it you both rub shoulders as you cross the road using the cenotaph as your pelican crossing then?
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 21:06
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weemonkey,

Yep.
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 21:13
  #5534 (permalink)  
 
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EasyStreet,

That takes absolutely no account of how and by whom Special Advisers are employed and paid, to whom they report, and how Government works.

Steve Baker did not want a repeat of his last Ministerial post and was open about that. He did not want to be a junior minister in a department that he saw as being usurped by Michael Gove and his 7 days a week Brexit committee meetings. The rush of announcements, or rather the list of emotional claims to be positive, are simply because the PM wants to leave when he campaigned to leave, 31st Oct, and has about 90 days to do it, all without seeming to weaken his hard line "do or die" leave goal as he knows that would result in him being engulfed in a Brexit Party revival that would be terminal for the Tories.
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 21:26
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pr00ne,

Where there's Gove, there's Cummings. At least that's what the civil servants I know say! There's clearly a centralising focus because of 31 October, but if the Government survives beyond that date we should expect a similar way of doing business to pervade the annual routine. That's why I think Cummings's views on defence matters are interesting. Does anyone know if the PM has any?!
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 22:20
  #5536 (permalink)  
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Easy Street

Perhaps Mr Cummings forgot to tell the US Navy and the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy these things? Now why is it the nation that produces DF-21 is building carriers? Why was it that NATO asked for the UK to commit a carrier to the NATO Response Force? Something to do with task group operations?

Thousands of souls aboard? Where? Perhaps a bit more attention detail?

Surely Col Boyd's work related (primarily) to aircraft fighting each other within visual range? Some hardcore disciples wanted the F-16 to have neither radar nor missiles!

Also you forget:

1. A carrier is not the only high value unit in a task group. There might well be amphibious forces, or important RFAs, or crisis response shipping. What is the best way to protect them from aircraft with anti ship missiles, that they can fire from beyond the range of any ship based surface to air missile? How do you protect them from submarines most effectively?

Perhaps this page from the USS Dwight D Eisenhower Strike Group might be informative?

2. Once upon a time I was planned that the Royal Navy's main role in NATO would be to provide ASW. Large 'through deck cruisers' were intended to carry multiple ASW Sea Kings. Then of course there was a need to counter the Soviet Bear maritime patrol aircraft, and there was a conveniently sized V/STOL aircraft that could be navalised.

Just think about this - when HMS Hermes operated Sea Harrier FRS1, Harrier GR3, Sea King HAS 2 and a few Sea King HC4 in the South Atlantic in 1982, she launched and recovered jets in some pretty nasty weather. If she had still been operating Sea Vixens and Buccaneers - or a replacement (small) CTOL jet, could she have achieved this? Could the RAF have provided rapid reinforcement without a V/STOL aircraft?

weemonkey

Errr.... Not sure what you mean!

pr00ne

I wonder what great parliamentarians from the past like Churchill or Attlee would have thought of all these special advisers?

Last edited by WE Branch Fanatic; 8th Aug 2019 at 20:32.
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 22:33
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Originally Posted by WE Branch Fanatic

Just think about this - when HMS Hermes operated Sea Harrier FRS1, Harrier GR3, Sea King HAS 2 and a few Sea King HC4 in the South Atlantic in 1982, she launched and recovered jets in some pretty nasty weather. If she had still been operating Sea Vixens and Buccaneers - or a replacement (small) CTOL jet, could she have achieved this? Could the RAF have provided rapid reinforcement without a V/STOL aircraft?
I beleive that had a direct influence in choosing the F-35B......

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Old 4th Aug 2019, 02:54
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Originally Posted by WEBF
Perhaps Mr Cummings forgot to tell the US Navy and the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy these things?
China and the USA have very different geo-strategic priorities to the UK. Each has more ability to tolerate combat losses, for differing reasons. And the US has invested spectacular amounts of money in developing ballistic missile defence capability for its task groups.

Originally Posted by WEBF
Now why is it the nation that produces DF-21 is building carriers?
One, China's strategic priorities don't include poking around the fringes of US home territory. Two, it might previously have assumed that the INF treaty would prevent the US from fielding an equivalent. Things change!

Why was it that NATO asked for the UK to commit a carrier to the NATO Response Force? Something to do with task group operations?
Investing so much in a capability inevitably creates political pressure for it to be used for something. See also: fast jets doing 'drone' work in the Middle East.

Thousands of souls aboard? Where? Perhaps a bit more attention detail?
Fair enough, hundreds. But I'll pay attention the other way too and increase the number of aircraft to 40+. It's still a single point of strategic failure and its loss would deal a devastating blow to UK air power and national prestige.

Originally Posted by WEBF
Surely Col Boyd's work related (primarily) to aircraft fighting each other within visual range? Some hardcore disciples wanted the F-16 to have neither radar nor missiles!
Beyond aviation circles, Boyd is best known for the OODA loop, but fanatics who delve deeply into his works (presumably including Cummings) would gain awareness of debates over combat radius, loiter time, tanker requirements etc which are all applicable here. Boyd is also appreciated for his mantra “people, ideas, machines - in that order”, which tellingly is opposite to MOD thinking on most subjects and especially the carriers.

Originally Posted by WEBF
1. A carrier is not the only high value unit in a task group. There might well be amphibious forces, or important RFAs, or crisis response shipping. What is the best way do protect them from aircraft with anti ship missiles, that they can fire from beyond the range of any ship based surface to air missile?
With modern technology the best way is to ignore the launch aircraft and deploy an effective, sustainable counter-missile capability.

Originally Posted by WEBF
How do you protect them from submarines most effectively?
Perhaps this page from the USS Dwight D Eisenhower Strike Group might be informative?
Which scenario are you envisaging?

Last edited by Easy Street; 4th Aug 2019 at 08:49.
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Old 4th Aug 2019, 07:56
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Webf, this whole thread is 278 pages of you espousing why carriers are the answer to the Nations defence woes. But it doesnt matter how many articles you dredge up or how many VADMs or 1SLs you quote, it doesnt make you any more right...

The carriers were and are a vanity project to protect Scottish Labour votes, nothing more, nothing less.

They are junk and will both be gone in 10 years time.
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Old 4th Aug 2019, 09:56
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Originally Posted by andrewn
Webf, this whole thread is 278 pages of you espousing why carriers are the answer to the Nations defence woes. But it doesnt matter how many articles you dredge up or how many VADMs or 1SLs you quote, it doesnt make you any more right...

The carriers were and are a vanity project to protect Scottish Labour votes, nothing more, nothing less.

They are junk and will both be gone in 10 years time.
If hard reality sets in...
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