Defence: Public ignorance, the media, and cutbacks
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It is plain that Joe Public does care about the price of fuel but at the moment he probably blames Bush and Blair for stirring up the ME and causing the current price inflation. Whilst this may be justified even Joe Public understands that a secure oil supply needs stability in the ME and the forces to ensure that.
Pulling out of Iraq now would only serve to encourage those who are currently involved in the anti-western terrorist action. Joe might not understand that but then he probably reads a tabloid newspaper and votes Blair.
Pulling out of Iraq now would only serve to encourage those who are currently involved in the anti-western terrorist action. Joe might not understand that but then he probably reads a tabloid newspaper and votes Blair.
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It would be very interesting to see the rate of oil production from Iraq over, say, the last 5 years. I suspect, notwithstanding protestations to the contrary, that the 'allied' politicians have oil production right at the top of the agenda for the rebuilding of Iraq.
Cynical, moi? Well yes, I suppose so, and I do accept that this will be essential if Iraq is to have any chance of stability in the long-term.
Cynical, moi? Well yes, I suppose so, and I do accept that this will be essential if Iraq is to have any chance of stability in the long-term.
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It's all down to panic by the buyers. Production is at it's highest level for years so prices should be low. However, the oil companies are stock piling so they can still sell at high prices if it all goes pear shaped.
Interestingly, when the price of oil drops the cost of petrol will remain high as they have paid for the stockpiled oil and need to recover that cost. Funny how the cost of petrol seemed to go up immediately the scare started and didn't wait for the cheap oil, that was already in the purchasing system, to run out.!!
Interestingly, when the price of oil drops the cost of petrol will remain high as they have paid for the stockpiled oil and need to recover that cost. Funny how the cost of petrol seemed to go up immediately the scare started and didn't wait for the cheap oil, that was already in the purchasing system, to run out.!!
Nobody has yet mentioned how much of the cost of petrol in this country goes straight to that nice Mr Brown. Perhaps the Opec countries have a point when they say the cost of fuel would be cheaper in the west if the governments reduced the tax they charge on it? ....... (taking cover now!!)
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It is of course quite possible that the Powers That Be were fully informed of the fact that Iraq did not possess any chemical weapons, and that therefore, issuing the troops with suits, masks, and other countermeasures against such a potential threat was unnecessary.
Now why was it that "we" went into Iraq again? Oh yes, it was 9/11, wasn't it.
Oh no, hang on, that was Afghanistan and the Taliban and Osama bin B@stard.
Iraq was about....um....well, it couldn't have been the switch from the US dollar to the Euro as the currency for oil transactions, back in October 2000, now could it. That would smack of conspiracy theory.
Now why was it that "we" went into Iraq again? Oh yes, it was 9/11, wasn't it.
Oh no, hang on, that was Afghanistan and the Taliban and Osama bin B@stard.
Iraq was about....um....well, it couldn't have been the switch from the US dollar to the Euro as the currency for oil transactions, back in October 2000, now could it. That would smack of conspiracy theory.
Thread Starter
Maybe this explains it....
Found this very interesting paper on the net...
Overstretch and the changing relationship between the military and civil society
Overview
At the heart of the problem of overstretch lies the public’s reluctance to provide the armed forces with adequate recruits and resources.
If the forces are to secure adequate personnel and equipment they will have to convince the public that the services are an attractive career and deserve the investment necessary to bring them up to the strength needed to fulfill their commitments.
The relationship between the military and society has undergone a profound change over recent years. This change has affected society’s willingness to support the armed forces.
Society has undergone profound changes while the military has resisted change. The result is that the armed forces have become detached from the lives and aspirations of everyday people.
I suggest clicking on the link and reading the full article...
There are lots of other papers availible from the UK Defence Forum on all sorts of topics.
Overstretch and the changing relationship between the military and civil society
Overview
At the heart of the problem of overstretch lies the public’s reluctance to provide the armed forces with adequate recruits and resources.
If the forces are to secure adequate personnel and equipment they will have to convince the public that the services are an attractive career and deserve the investment necessary to bring them up to the strength needed to fulfill their commitments.
The relationship between the military and society has undergone a profound change over recent years. This change has affected society’s willingness to support the armed forces.
Society has undergone profound changes while the military has resisted change. The result is that the armed forces have become detached from the lives and aspirations of everyday people.
I suggest clicking on the link and reading the full article...
There are lots of other papers availible from the UK Defence Forum on all sorts of topics.
Last edited by WE Branch Fanatic; 21st Jun 2004 at 09:15.
Suspicion breeds confidence
Today's Times is reporting that the cuts announcements will be made next month. The Army is to lose 4 battalions. With the RN and RAF listed to get "severe" cuts. The RN's rumour mill suggests that the Sea King Fleet will be axed. The "logic" for this being that the airframes are old and maintenance intensive. Not a million miles from the truth. The RAF is likely to lose it Pumas for similar reasons. If the gossip about the Tranche 1 of Eurofighter being sold on to Foreign buyers is true then these cuts are going to be incredibly painful for all.
Thread Starter
Do they know? Do they care?
Nato gaurds skies over Euro 2004
And the Olympics
But few people will think about that, but without adeqaute security measures would events like these still take place?
And Afgahnistan
And the Olympics
But few people will think about that, but without adeqaute security measures would events like these still take place?
And Afgahnistan
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One of the main issues in the forthcoming cuts, sorry, strategic realignement is the numers of Typhoons we're ordering.
I have this one simple question, which if there are any brave enough to stick their heads above the parrapets, I would love the no-good waste of space expensive chisselling bean counters and number crunchers to think about (I would say answer but I'll retire before I get a straight one).
Our original order was for 232 airframes, a combination of AD, offensive support/recce as the Jag replacement, 2-seat trainers and probably a few for reserves. Apparently we no longer need this many.
The Swedish airforce have a requirement for 200+ Grippens. Although very professional and capable, they do not do the World Policeman thing nearly as much as UK Plc (nos combat ac deployed to Gulf 1/2, Balkans, Afghanistan etc etc ). If the Swedish govt thinks it needs 200+ to maintain a credible defence of Sweden combined with its other commitments without all the levels of commitment UK plc provides around the world, why oh why do our bean counters think we don't need 232 ac any more.
And before the bean counters kick-off about ex Cold War ac, out of date blah blah blah, think about this lot:
1. Yes it was designed as a Cold War weapon. Yes the Sovs aren't playing anymore. They aren't playing at all which means their kit is being flogged off around the world, and we still end up facing it when we go on ops. If DROC had kicked off, are the bean counters aware of how many FULCRUMS and FROGFOOTS there are in Central Africa. Or in any other s**t hole we're likely to end up in, more often than not crewed by ex-Sov pilots making some money. Hmmm me thinks not. The threat is still there for the Typhoon to face.
2. It was designed as an air superiority fighter which we don't need anymore. True, reading the small print in the late 90s SDR, UK AD had been pushed down the bottom of the list of priorities. After all, where will the air threat come from now there are no Sovs coming over the Kola??? As such lets cut down and not get the final tranche because we need OS rather than AD ac/ Hmmm, which is the tranche that is optimised for ground attack/offensive ops that we are doing lots of these days. Oh that will be the one you are cutting.
3. We DO still need an AD capability, albeit for deployed ops. It's all well and good sticking the Pongos on a beach and telling them to crack on. Not going to happen until we have total air superiority. And before you all quote Iraq, it doesn't count when the enemy pack up and go home before kick-off - that's a rarity
And when we do go off on ops and the Pongos are getting a pasting against a state that actually decides to fight, whether that be in FROGFOOTS or anything else, can I please be there when the bean counters tell them they will have to put up with it because the fiscal planning didn't take into account Umongo-Bongo land using their air assets when we invaded so there's no air cover.
4. Plus many other logical arguments that the military shouldn't have to spell out in words of less than on syllable.
This round of cuts has to be the most ludicrous and short sighted bit of thinking it has ever been my privilege to see. When will the accountants and civil servants realise that you cannot put a cash value on defence. The sort of value they need to realise investing in defence brings is the ability to get to their comfy Whitehall office without being gassed on the tube, or go on holiday without being hijacked en route.
So I go back to my original question. If Sweden thinks it needs 200+ Grippen, any chance of a re-think on our cutting the numbers of Typhoons?
Answers on a postcard to T Bliar, 10 , The Funny Farm, London
I have this one simple question, which if there are any brave enough to stick their heads above the parrapets, I would love the no-good waste of space expensive chisselling bean counters and number crunchers to think about (I would say answer but I'll retire before I get a straight one).
Our original order was for 232 airframes, a combination of AD, offensive support/recce as the Jag replacement, 2-seat trainers and probably a few for reserves. Apparently we no longer need this many.
The Swedish airforce have a requirement for 200+ Grippens. Although very professional and capable, they do not do the World Policeman thing nearly as much as UK Plc (nos combat ac deployed to Gulf 1/2, Balkans, Afghanistan etc etc ). If the Swedish govt thinks it needs 200+ to maintain a credible defence of Sweden combined with its other commitments without all the levels of commitment UK plc provides around the world, why oh why do our bean counters think we don't need 232 ac any more.
And before the bean counters kick-off about ex Cold War ac, out of date blah blah blah, think about this lot:
1. Yes it was designed as a Cold War weapon. Yes the Sovs aren't playing anymore. They aren't playing at all which means their kit is being flogged off around the world, and we still end up facing it when we go on ops. If DROC had kicked off, are the bean counters aware of how many FULCRUMS and FROGFOOTS there are in Central Africa. Or in any other s**t hole we're likely to end up in, more often than not crewed by ex-Sov pilots making some money. Hmmm me thinks not. The threat is still there for the Typhoon to face.
2. It was designed as an air superiority fighter which we don't need anymore. True, reading the small print in the late 90s SDR, UK AD had been pushed down the bottom of the list of priorities. After all, where will the air threat come from now there are no Sovs coming over the Kola??? As such lets cut down and not get the final tranche because we need OS rather than AD ac/ Hmmm, which is the tranche that is optimised for ground attack/offensive ops that we are doing lots of these days. Oh that will be the one you are cutting.
3. We DO still need an AD capability, albeit for deployed ops. It's all well and good sticking the Pongos on a beach and telling them to crack on. Not going to happen until we have total air superiority. And before you all quote Iraq, it doesn't count when the enemy pack up and go home before kick-off - that's a rarity
And when we do go off on ops and the Pongos are getting a pasting against a state that actually decides to fight, whether that be in FROGFOOTS or anything else, can I please be there when the bean counters tell them they will have to put up with it because the fiscal planning didn't take into account Umongo-Bongo land using their air assets when we invaded so there's no air cover.
4. Plus many other logical arguments that the military shouldn't have to spell out in words of less than on syllable.
This round of cuts has to be the most ludicrous and short sighted bit of thinking it has ever been my privilege to see. When will the accountants and civil servants realise that you cannot put a cash value on defence. The sort of value they need to realise investing in defence brings is the ability to get to their comfy Whitehall office without being gassed on the tube, or go on holiday without being hijacked en route.
So I go back to my original question. If Sweden thinks it needs 200+ Grippen, any chance of a re-think on our cutting the numbers of Typhoons?
Answers on a postcard to T Bliar, 10 , The Funny Farm, London
Last edited by CatpainCaveman; 22nd Jun 2004 at 23:59.
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Memo to St Tone, Vicar of St Albions from AC;
Mate, ignore all the previous militeresque ranting, they're has-beens that's why I put Buff in charge - its edukayshun and helff where it counts, deefence is the last of our worries, they won't strike they'll just knuckle down and get on with it, their bosses will all come onside if we give the wifey a sniff of a Ladyship and half one of our pensions (would a KCB help?).
Reply from Vicar of St Albion
Like, er cool, er y'know, er, I mean, er, so we could cut them back to my Vatican guard of 100 of those embassy raiders, a couple of helos and one of those giant Hercules thingy's.
PS what Have you done with Cherries royal yacht oh and I'd rarther like one of those G Dubya flying jackets, y'know like I'mean with wings on so the parishioners can identify with me,
( memo to Carol) - would I look better in a G Dubya stylee leather jacket with airforoce wings or navy wings, AC wodya rekkon ?
Reply from the Rev Dubya , Church of the Latter Day Morons,er Vicar Tone, watch and pray, lest you join my list of those folks who are in need of a regime change. Eyerak, Germanland, Froggyland and St Abionland'
Vicar of St Albion.... bending over now Your Holiness.......
I could go on.......
Load moving............
Mate, ignore all the previous militeresque ranting, they're has-beens that's why I put Buff in charge - its edukayshun and helff where it counts, deefence is the last of our worries, they won't strike they'll just knuckle down and get on with it, their bosses will all come onside if we give the wifey a sniff of a Ladyship and half one of our pensions (would a KCB help?).
Reply from Vicar of St Albion
Like, er cool, er y'know, er, I mean, er, so we could cut them back to my Vatican guard of 100 of those embassy raiders, a couple of helos and one of those giant Hercules thingy's.
PS what Have you done with Cherries royal yacht oh and I'd rarther like one of those G Dubya flying jackets, y'know like I'mean with wings on so the parishioners can identify with me,
( memo to Carol) - would I look better in a G Dubya stylee leather jacket with airforoce wings or navy wings, AC wodya rekkon ?
Reply from the Rev Dubya , Church of the Latter Day Morons,er Vicar Tone, watch and pray, lest you join my list of those folks who are in need of a regime change. Eyerak, Germanland, Froggyland and St Abionland'
Vicar of St Albion.... bending over now Your Holiness.......
I could go on.......
Load moving............
CatpainCaveman,
Just for the record, the detail of the cuts isn't being decided by civil servants or beancounters, in the main it is serving personnel at OF5/1* who are making the suggestions as to the shape of future forces, particularly the platform mix required.
It's true that there are some massive cost overuns driving the need for this, largely due to a couple of big programmes going massively over budget, plus the compounding, but unforeseen (by the Treasury), effect of RAB on real year on year cash flow. Given that the Government are not prepared to put more cash into defence to compensate, the DMB has little choice but to force some savage "efficiency" measures through.
If we end up with an unbalanced capability that is inadequate for the conflicts we find ourselves in, then it's worth remembering that the blame may well lie with a handful of career minded senior officers who see the opportunity here to curry favour. Unfortunately, common sense often seems to go out of the window when this happens, as we will no doubt find out officially in mid-July.
Just for the record, the detail of the cuts isn't being decided by civil servants or beancounters, in the main it is serving personnel at OF5/1* who are making the suggestions as to the shape of future forces, particularly the platform mix required.
It's true that there are some massive cost overuns driving the need for this, largely due to a couple of big programmes going massively over budget, plus the compounding, but unforeseen (by the Treasury), effect of RAB on real year on year cash flow. Given that the Government are not prepared to put more cash into defence to compensate, the DMB has little choice but to force some savage "efficiency" measures through.
If we end up with an unbalanced capability that is inadequate for the conflicts we find ourselves in, then it's worth remembering that the blame may well lie with a handful of career minded senior officers who see the opportunity here to curry favour. Unfortunately, common sense often seems to go out of the window when this happens, as we will no doubt find out officially in mid-July.
CaptainCaveman,
You're a bit out of date and touch with the Swedich situation (OOoer)
They have had their own series of Defence cuts and realignments and have a requirement for far less than 200 Grippens. They are peddling them around the world to anyone who is interested and all of their early Grippens are being replaced by a later updated NATO compatible version resulting in around half of the Grippen order being declared surplus.
Plus it is their only FJ so it has to do the lot. They are declaring a grand total of 4 to be available for UN sponsored peace keeping missions.
You're a bit out of date and touch with the Swedich situation (OOoer)
They have had their own series of Defence cuts and realignments and have a requirement for far less than 200 Grippens. They are peddling them around the world to anyone who is interested and all of their early Grippens are being replaced by a later updated NATO compatible version resulting in around half of the Grippen order being declared surplus.
Plus it is their only FJ so it has to do the lot. They are declaring a grand total of 4 to be available for UN sponsored peace keeping missions.
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The national cake is sliced up according to the pollies wishes (and they argue that they are responding to the wishes of the 'people').
The defence budget is then passed down from the Treasury to the Big Wheel civil servants in the MOD who then have a meeting with the Big *s in green, dark blue and light blue. They then go off with their worry beads and it eventually comes down to the sqn ldr staff officers who then have to produce a paper which then works its way back up the chain to the Big *s office who pronounces himself well pleased with the efficient staff work. He then passes it on to the Big Wheel civil servants who pass it on to the Treasury who pass it on to the Cabinet and the PM says to the public "Lo, we have achieveth what thou hast asked for and have managed to restrict prescription charges to only a quid rise this year"
Moral: It's the bloke next door's fault so go and kick his nuts in. You are certainly not going to get any Big *s giving in their notice on principle (Sorry Prime Minister, you are talking bollocks. We cannot do what you want with this level of resources. You can do without my services)
The defence budget is then passed down from the Treasury to the Big Wheel civil servants in the MOD who then have a meeting with the Big *s in green, dark blue and light blue. They then go off with their worry beads and it eventually comes down to the sqn ldr staff officers who then have to produce a paper which then works its way back up the chain to the Big *s office who pronounces himself well pleased with the efficient staff work. He then passes it on to the Big Wheel civil servants who pass it on to the Treasury who pass it on to the Cabinet and the PM says to the public "Lo, we have achieveth what thou hast asked for and have managed to restrict prescription charges to only a quid rise this year"
Moral: It's the bloke next door's fault so go and kick his nuts in. You are certainly not going to get any Big *s giving in their notice on principle (Sorry Prime Minister, you are talking bollocks. We cannot do what you want with this level of resources. You can do without my services)
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PrOOne -
The Swedish situation???? The ladies beach-volleyball team getting rowdy again?? Volunteers to intervene for the sake of northern Europe security one pace forward - and watch for the stampede!
Thanks for the update - it's a fair cop, I have been somewhat pre-occuppied with issues other than Swedish defence procurement and the Grippen site could do with updating. However I think the gist of my point still stands, and judging by some of the other replies I think others may agree with my general sentiment.
I still can't understand why if the Grippen is so capable (Typhoon detractors keep plugging it as a cheaper but equally handy option) why the Swedes need so many for a relatively limited requirement that doesn't extend much further than their ADZ? I don't think it's anything to do with Swedish military expansionism, more a realisation that a credible defence needs investment, which our government needs to realise.
VP959 - the OF5/1* are mearly trying to allocate the resources they are given. It's still the Sir Humphries of this world that work out how much pocket money we get to spend on toys according to our political masters' wishes and vote-winning needs. Rather than simply taking it up the hoop, it would be nice to finally see some of them stand up and defend the military amd what we need. Or don't they believe we are worth defending anymore??????? Some one please prove me wrong - being sent into a war where people have 20 rounds and no body armour means guys & girls at the coal face are beginning to seriously doubt how much of our collective interests they have at heart.
If all the rumours are true - carriers to be mothballed, aircraft types axed, regiments sold off to the lowest bidder, and I realise these are all worst case scenario media-led stories, it will be a catastrophe. Can you imagine the headlines if the NHS turned round and said that we have reviewed our capability requirements and have decided to axe all heart surgery to meet budgetary constraints? Well take that analogy and transfer to MOD ........
The Swedish situation???? The ladies beach-volleyball team getting rowdy again?? Volunteers to intervene for the sake of northern Europe security one pace forward - and watch for the stampede!
Thanks for the update - it's a fair cop, I have been somewhat pre-occuppied with issues other than Swedish defence procurement and the Grippen site could do with updating. However I think the gist of my point still stands, and judging by some of the other replies I think others may agree with my general sentiment.
I still can't understand why if the Grippen is so capable (Typhoon detractors keep plugging it as a cheaper but equally handy option) why the Swedes need so many for a relatively limited requirement that doesn't extend much further than their ADZ? I don't think it's anything to do with Swedish military expansionism, more a realisation that a credible defence needs investment, which our government needs to realise.
VP959 - the OF5/1* are mearly trying to allocate the resources they are given. It's still the Sir Humphries of this world that work out how much pocket money we get to spend on toys according to our political masters' wishes and vote-winning needs. Rather than simply taking it up the hoop, it would be nice to finally see some of them stand up and defend the military amd what we need. Or don't they believe we are worth defending anymore??????? Some one please prove me wrong - being sent into a war where people have 20 rounds and no body armour means guys & girls at the coal face are beginning to seriously doubt how much of our collective interests they have at heart.
If all the rumours are true - carriers to be mothballed, aircraft types axed, regiments sold off to the lowest bidder, and I realise these are all worst case scenario media-led stories, it will be a catastrophe. Can you imagine the headlines if the NHS turned round and said that we have reviewed our capability requirements and have decided to axe all heart surgery to meet budgetary constraints? Well take that analogy and transfer to MOD ........
Last edited by CatpainCaveman; 23rd Jun 2004 at 22:38.
Don't you just love it when the political spin starts? It's common knowledge that there isn't enough dosh to provide the kit that is desperately needed, and that what dosh there was has been savagely cut. In steps the Treasury, with the following quotes from the Mail:
"A spokeswoman said reports that as many as 15,000 personnel, four Army battalions and six Navy warships were facing the chop were "totally wrong".
The spending review would provide sufficient funding to ensure that the armed forces were equipped for the tasks facing them, she said.
"Far from cuts, the 2002 spending review delivered the biggest sustained increase in defence spending for 20 years.
"On top of that, we have met in full the cost of campaigns in Iraq, Afghanistan and the war on terror," said the spokeswoman.
"We are ensuring, and will continue to ensure, that our armed forces are best equipped to do the job we ask of them."
Anyone care to place bets on how "totally wrong" the rumours are? My guess is that "totally wrong" might mean cuts of 12,000 instead of 15,000.......................
"A spokeswoman said reports that as many as 15,000 personnel, four Army battalions and six Navy warships were facing the chop were "totally wrong".
The spending review would provide sufficient funding to ensure that the armed forces were equipped for the tasks facing them, she said.
"Far from cuts, the 2002 spending review delivered the biggest sustained increase in defence spending for 20 years.
"On top of that, we have met in full the cost of campaigns in Iraq, Afghanistan and the war on terror," said the spokeswoman.
"We are ensuring, and will continue to ensure, that our armed forces are best equipped to do the job we ask of them."
Anyone care to place bets on how "totally wrong" the rumours are? My guess is that "totally wrong" might mean cuts of 12,000 instead of 15,000.......................
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As a taxpayer who has to go private to get dental treatment, has to use BUPA to get timely medical attention, had to pay boarding school fees to get his kids a decent education and is still paying National Insurance contributions well after his 60th birthday because he has no choice in the matter I wonder if some philanthropist will come up with a way I can buy defence of my homeland on easy payments.
It is quite obvious that in my lifetime no government has looked after my needs and this one looks like sacrificing my ultimate insurance - our armed forces.
It is quite obvious that in my lifetime no government has looked after my needs and this one looks like sacrificing my ultimate insurance - our armed forces.
VP959,
BTW, is that a Devon? Might have flown in it.
....."and that what dosh there was has been savagely cut."........
Sorry mate, that simply is not true, an extra £2billion last year, an extra £500million for Iraq and Afghanistan and the leak of the Cabinet spending review promising real term increases of 1% per annum for the next three years.
What we need is what is changing, priorities and emphasis are changing. The changes are being driven by guys in Khaki and light and dark blue.
Overspend on many major procurement 'big ticket' items and a DLO and DPA who couldn't organise a fun night in a brothel and boozer?
That's a different matter!
BTW, is that a Devon? Might have flown in it.
....."and that what dosh there was has been savagely cut."........
Sorry mate, that simply is not true, an extra £2billion last year, an extra £500million for Iraq and Afghanistan and the leak of the Cabinet spending review promising real term increases of 1% per annum for the next three years.
What we need is what is changing, priorities and emphasis are changing. The changes are being driven by guys in Khaki and light and dark blue.
Overspend on many major procurement 'big ticket' items and a DLO and DPA who couldn't organise a fun night in a brothel and boozer?
That's a different matter!