Is war likely with Iran? Consequences for EK?
 

Is Obama giving in to Israeli pressure over Iran? — RT

Is Obama giving in to Israeli pressure over Iran?
Get short URL email story to a friend print version
Published: 02 March, 2012, 21:13

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks with US President Barack Obama (AFP Photo / Mandel Ngan)
TRENDS:
Israel vs Iran
TAGS: Meeting, Military, Iran, USA, Israel, War
When US President Barack Obama and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet on Monday, neither heads of state will have to worry too much about plotting their war on Iran. Pentagon officials are saying that those wheels are already in motion.
After wrapping up a speech before the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) this weekend, President Obama will spend Monday meeting with PM Netanyahu, and there is little doubt that the duo will be disputing the whens, whats and hows of a joint strike on Iran. It’s been a matter of debate for months now as rumors continue to abound over an alleged nuclear warhead being developed at a secret Iranian facility. With that meeting marking perhaps the last time the two mega leaders will come together before an eventual and almost certain attack, officials from within the walls of the US Defense Department headquarters report that the blueprints for the battle are already in the works.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, Pentagon sources this week say that both Washington and Jerusalem defense officials have already begun discussions on how the countries will work in cooperation with one another should they follow through with an attack.
Pentagon officials tell Israel’s Debka news outlet that US Defense Department Secretary Leon Panetta and his Israeli counterpart, Ehud Barak, met in Washington on Thursday of this week to discuss the dynamics between the two country’s militaries. The US has been hesitant to formally endorse a strike on Iran, though has offered their support to Israel throughout the ordeal. Despite a long-lasting friendship between the two, Israel has in recent weeks condemned America over their hesitance, with Netanyahu reported to have called a top-ranking US general a “servant of Iran” last week. While the two nations have not been seeing exactly eye-to-eye as of late, Barak and Panetta are believed to be orchestrating plans that will put both nations officially in cahoots in terms of taking on Iran.
According to Pentagon sources speaking to Debka, both nations are currently considering military options that will begin in the not-so-distant future. Those plans, they report, will call for the US “providing refueling for Israeli planes and include attacking the pillars of the clerical regime,” which they add are comprised of “the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its elite Qods Force, regular Iranian military bases and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security.”
With Obama preparing to go before the AIPAC conference this weekend, there are already talks that the United States’ commander-in-chief is considering giving in to Israeli pressure to align against Iran with force, fearing what repercussions could come on Election Day should he walk. Obama has been hesitant to throw his weight behind any actual endorsements of war so far — and much to the chagrin of Israel — but this week’s meeting between Barak and Panetta suggest that Obama may soon crack. While the Iranian issue will no doubt be discussed during Monday’s meeting with Netanyahu, the two will now have time beforehand to mull over details divulged between the two defense heads.
Also on Thursday, White House press secretary Jay Carney told reporters, “I think we have been clear about this – that any (Israeli) military action in that region threatens greater instability in the region, because Iran borders both Afghanistan and Iraq – we have civilian personnel in Iraq, we have military personnel as well as civilians in Afghanistan,” while also insisting that America will, for the time being, “pursue the diplomatic path that we’ve taken, combined with very aggressive sanctions.”
Speaking to RT’s Alyona Minkovski that same day, Retired Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson warned that “sanctions as diplomacy won’t work.”
In an interview published Friday with The Atlantic, President Obama himself adds that he has never ruled out any war on Iran. Should those sanctions fail, the US will be ready to respond with force.
"I think that the Israeli government recognizes that, as president of the United States, I don't bluff," reveals Obama in his latest sit-down. "I also don't, as a matter of sound policy, go around advertising exactly what our intentions are. But (both) governments recognize that when the United States says it is unacceptable for Iran to have a nuclear weapon, we mean what we say."

So what??? Been here in the "gulf" for two decades and a bit, they all been running their mouths constantly, wish they would all shut up and let life go on..war?? doubt it.....:ugh:

I disagree, IB. Yes, it's true, "they all run their mouths constantly" around here, so take that with a grain of salt.
However, if you look at the political machinations...is stopping the purchase of Iranian oil by Europe a 'sanction' or a 'preparation'?...BBC reported that the Isreali parliament was debating whether 'covert activities' (killing scientists and stuxnet-type things) were successfully interdicting, or whether stronger measures were required, agreeing unanimously that it was the latter.....congress debated last week whether Israel's request for 200 bunker buster weapons (gee, I wonder what they would be for?) should be granted....
Then there is the real stuff- noticed any 'activity' as you've been pottering around the gulf lately? The second carrier has been here for a few weeks now- when the third arrives, you'll have your answer.

Iran: Countries used for attack will be targets
 

gulfnews : Iran: Countries used for attack will be targets

Tehran vows to strike neighbours hosting hostile forces
APPublished: 00:00 February 7, 2012

Tehran:*Iran will target any country from where an attack against it is staged, a senior Guard commander warned on Sunday, the latest Iranian threat tied to growing tensions over its nuclear programme and Western sanctions.
General Hussain Salami, deputy commander of the elite Revolutionary Guard, Iran's most powerful military force, did not elaborate. His comments appeared to be a warning to Iran's neighbours not to let their territory or airspace be used as a base for an attack.

"Any place where enemy offensive operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran originate will be the target of a reciprocal attack by the Guard's fighting units," the semi-official Fars news agency quoted Salami as saying.
The Revolutionary Guard started manoeuvres in the country's south on Saturday following naval exercises near the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil export route, additional muscle flexing by Iran to ward off the prospect of a military strike against its nuclear facilities. Iran has threatened to close off the strait if Western sanctions limit Iranian oil exports.


The US and its Western allies charge Iran is producing atomic weapons. Iran says itsI programme is meant to produce fuel for future nuclear power reactors and medical radioisotopes needed for cancer patients.
Israel and the US have said all options are open, including military action, if Iran continues with its programme.

United Arab Emirates - dKosopedia

US Military Bases

The U.S. Military has few bases in the UAE. Two of the most important are Al Dhafra air base and Jebel Ali port. Al Dhafra supports fighters and aerial refueling aircraft, in addition to occassional U-2 and Global Hawk reconnaissance flights. Meanwhile, the Navy makes about 200 calls a year at Jebel Ali port. The UAE is considered as one one of the main allies in the war against terrorism.




U.S., UAE reach deal for missile-defense system - CNN

U.S., UAE reach deal for missile-defense system
UAE

December 30, 2011|By the CNN Wire Staff

The United States and the United Arab Emirates have signed a deal for a missile-defense system in the Persian Gulf country, the Pentagon said Friday.
The $3.48 billion agreement was signed December 25, according to press secretary George Little. It was not clear why the deal was announced Friday.
The vital Strait of Hormuz separates the UAE and Iran. The Obama administration said Iran has been "saber-rattling" over its threat to block the Strait.

The pact will deliver two anti-missile batteries, 96 missiles, radars, training and logistics to the UAE, the Pentagon said.
"Acquisition of this critical defense system will bolster the UAE's air and missile-defense capability and enhance the already robust ballistic missile-defense cooperation between the United States and the UAE," the Pentagon said.
The two countries "enjoy a strong bilateral defense relationship, driven by common interests in a secure and stable Gulf region," Little said in a statement.
Raytheon Company said it will provide two radars and services through 2018 to the country. "This $582.5 million contract for the radars is part of the first sale of THAAD missile systems to an international customer," it said in a statement.

-------------------------

The questions are:

1) Should the US or Israel attack Iran as looks likely over next 3-6 months, will the UAE become a target due to assisting the US by use of ports and airbases?

2) What effect would this have on the Emirates/Etihad/Qatar bases? Would operations be suspended?

3) For those with families, what preperations if any are considered wise should the perhaps inevitable break out whilst you are down route?

IMHO the Guards bluster is just that, bluster. Based primarily on the fact that, what would they use other than plastic boats as most if not all other assets will get walloped.

Though interstingly the other day talking to Tehran ATC the controller had real problems pronouncing his Rs and Ls..................

Good and valid query.

Obviously this is all conjecture and projectionist:

Yes the Israelis will hit Iran if they don't stop - which is hard to imagine them stopping.

Effect on Gulf? Pretty severe for about a year...but probably no worse than GFC of 2008.

Perception of safety traveling through area will be affected...Turkish to make a good run of it as a result.

Serious detrimental effect on real estate prices again probable.

Best case: US/coalition of the willing - air war with regime collapse in Tehran followed by Arab spring like awakening in Iran - 10 tear recovery for Iran itself, the Gulf returns quickly to normality

Worst case: 5th fleet hit in Bahrain, Minhad here and the base in Doha, rockets at cities throughout Israel, straits of Hormuz blocked....and that would destroy the tourism industry in Dubai for two years.

The interesting thing is there would be jobs for a lot of guys in East Asia as crises stay regional more so than in past due to monster global economy finding ways around obstacles.

f

Thanks for the offer EK but....
 

If there was ever a thread on Pprune to deter anyone from taking the job with EK, this oughta do it :) Even I am getting a bit curious as to the potential of an attack in the UAE. :hmm:

All joking aside, I think we all need to at least discuss this with our better halves. Especially if you guys are on the road and even more so if you are here with children.

I recall reading last year that the top 4 defense spenders globally where: US, China, Russia, and drumroll......UAE.?! I was shocked. Missle defense, aircraft, IT, etc.

Sure if the Iranians were stupid enough to attack the UAE (#1 trading partner) some missles maybe would get through (Aegis missle cruiser parked off shore?) however I guess their top targets would be: Long range, Israel and Short range, Bahrain, Qatar. Will make a helluva mess on Qatari gas fields. They even may loft a few Saudi's way since there's no love lost between them and likely the warplanes from Israel transited Saudi's airspace....

Day one of a all-out shooting war: Complete loss of all Irainian subs, surface ships, coastal radar, C&C inland. The straits will stay open. The americans have wargamed this for 30 years.

Within days the PR machine will say the region has stabilized....flights will return to normal, EK will march on. This is NOT Iraq, there will be no land battle, no year long air campaign.

If you ever fly over Iran territory, and in good weather so you can have a look at that country, you will understand why the war did not start yet.

With this history, why is there a conflict between the two?
 

Although confusion runs amok in my life I was just passing on what I recall I read!!! Thanks for your due diligence.

And I don't think anyone was questioning the heart of the people of Iran. History is rife with rulers who do not have the support of the people.

Attack
 

Well an attack can happen, will it depend on the nature of the mission. Length of the mission no normal human knows, only the supreme elite know.

Putin is now President what will his frign policy be?
Will he start war games with Syria and Iran with some foreign backing from communist Latin or South American countries?

Remember The Cold War? Well it never ended; it just evolved into something different.

I say, if you see the Iranians and Russians in The UAE running home start to worry.

Home | Foreign Affairs

Are there any shelters in Dubai? Anybody living close to the Burj Khalifa should be looking for one....

It's comments such as yours and people's naivity (yet again, such as yours) that have put the world in the position that it's in now. The constant "bending over backwards" and Europe's insistency in being politically correct (or incorrect in my opinion) when it comes to tolerating certain beliefs have shown that Israel should be commended for its stance against this oppressive regime.

Have you seen Israel openly call for destruction of the Arab world? How about the other way around?

Another thing - value of life. Suicide bombings - weapon of choice for whom? Would you want a suicide bomber around with a nuclear weapon? Ever see Israelis run around doing suicide bombings?

I don't particularly care for Israel, but let's call spade a spade...

Ever see Atheists running around doing suicide bombings...there's the problem right there.... My money is on between April and June, clearer skies....

Israel, a Country with a Government that respects and values life vs Iran, one that has depraved indifference to the existence of another.

Big difference... Israel defends its interest and right to exist while Iran, and yes, along with Syria provide the means to other to attack Israel.

By the way, Russia is no angel in this mess either by selling arms to both Iran and Syria. Would anyone like to venture a guess as to how many Russian scientist are helping the development of Iran's, (and my hands can barely type out the words), but here goes... nuclear program for medicinal purposes and for the good of mankind:yuk:?

I don't think a "war" is likely, but yes if so it could be a bit messy here...

Are you familiar with the terms Martyr, Suffer for a Cause, Willing Victim, Sacrificial Victim, Sacrifice?

I guess in plain English... acceptable loss of life for a fanatic's cause.

@ captjns: You, Sir, are a genius :D

You do realise the whole Iran vs Israel conflict is about Palestinian rights, right ?

I was listening to the Today program on BBC radio, and there was some good commentary. Basically, the Israelis 'red line' is the implementation on more centrifuges (where the Iranians are now). The USA's red-line is the creation of nuclear weapon grade uranium. They both will not let Iran create a nuclear weapon, regardless of what the Russians or Chinese may say.

No-one can see the Iranians stopping their research, so come late summer, the Israelis will do something, with or without the US.

If Israel stays calm, cool and collected nothing will happen.

Reminds me of Munich in 1938...when we had "Peace in Our Time"!!!

Iran have stated they are not into nuclear weapons. If that is a lie, then anything should be on the cards. Israel can "stay cool, calm and collected" until a big bang sees the end of them. That will not be allowed to happen.

Iran will never start a war they can not win. They just want to have a voice in the UN. This project will keep the proud Perzian people united, whoever is in power.

Turkey intercepted Iranian chemical weapons shipment to Syria
 

http://israelmatzav.********.com/201...mical.html?m=1

January 21st 2012

Four Iranian trucks that were intercepted by Turkey near the Syrian border two weeks ago were carrying raw materials for ballistic missiles and chemical weapons according to the Turkish daily Taraf. Iran denied that the trucks were carrying weapons.

While Turkish officials did not publicize the contents of the cargo in the Iranian trucks, Taraf reported that one truck was carrying for six-meter-long cylindrical tanks and heat-resistant materials, while the other three vehicles were transporting 66 tons of sodium sulfate, which can be used to make chemical weapons.

Turkey - which imposed an arms embargo on Syria last September - has dispatched a scientific team to study the contents of the freight, while the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency has also requested a report on the trucks' materials.

The Iranian embassy in Ankara denied earlier this month that the four trucks held by Turkish customs were carrying military equipment from Iran to Syria, while a spokesman for Turkey's foreign ministry said an investigation was still in progress.

The trucks were confiscated in Turkey's southeast province of Kilis at the Oncupinar border crossing into Syria.
YNet adds:
Details on the documents obtained from the trucks suggested that the materials belonged to a leather company in Tehran and that they were being delivered to a person in Aleppo, Syria, for leather production.

Taraf has claimed that the same materials can be used in the production of chemical weapons and that the leather company is likely a cover up, recalling that thousands of people were killed by chemical weapons in Syria in 1982.
Syria already has chemical weapons, which has to make you wonder why they think they need more. Hmmm.

Sitty - one of the reasons they can have nukes is that they are the only democracy in the Middle East or were at least until the "The Spring" - surrounded by nutters who believe there are 70 virgins waiting for them if they die killing Jews .

The Arabs are not strong enough to form stable democracy yet - working towards it though - not holding my breath.

f.

These virgins.....Who chooses whether they are male or female?:suspect:

Well, if they decide to stay in Iran they'll turn into very hot people.

Stingidly, what flavor is that Kool-Aid you are drinking?
Iran a "somewhat" oppressive regime? They are not even allowed a free and open election much less free speech. You may not like the Jews but how can you defend Iran? They have the whole middle east scared including Saudia and the UAE.
Let's not get into the Palenstines cause. No one cares about them including the Arab states and they have brought most if not all of their problems on themselves. Ever hear of an educated Palenstinian? One that thinks of his country over himself?
And why should health care be a government requirement?

Alas, I don't think there's any more good and bad sides, who's right or wrong, friend or foe, the oppressor or the oppressed.

The enemy now is inevitable and unavoidable war itself.

Iran Threatens Israel With Destruction
 

Iran Threatens Israel With Destruction, But the Times Doesn

Sittingidly, here is the answer to your query....

02.03.2012

Today’s speech by Iran’s Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, about the sanctions on his country and its determination to persist in its quest for nuclear capability was a significant news event. Khamenei served notice on the United States that he would not be bluffed into giving up his nuclear plans. Though he conceded*the economic pressure on his country has hurt, he said Iran is undaunted and would retaliate against the United States should its nuclear facilities come under attack. All this was reported in newspapers around the world, including the New York Times, which posted a story on the speech Friday morning.

However, there was something missing from the Times report of Khamenei’s speech that was reported elsewhere. Other accounts noted that in addition to threatening the United States, Khamenei said this: “The Zionist regime is a cancerous tumor and it will be removed.”



------------------
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Israel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"Wiped off the map" controversy

On October 26, 2005, IRIB News, an English-language subsidiary of the state-controlled Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), filed a story on Ahmadinejad's speech to the "World Without Zionism" conference in Asia, entitled: Ahmadinejad: Israel must be wiped off the map.[1] The story was picked up by Western news agencies and quickly made headlines around the world. On October 30, The New York Times published a full transcript of the speech in which Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying:
Our dear Imam (referring to Ayatollah Khomeini) said that the occupying regime must be wiped off the map and this was a very wise statement. We cannot compromise over the issue of Palestine. Is it possible to create a new front in the heart of an old front. This would be a defeat and whoever accepts the legitimacy of this regime has in fact, signed the defeat of the Islamic world. Our dear Imam targeted the heart of the world oppressor in his struggle, meaning the occupying regime. I have no doubt that the new wave that has started in Palestine, and we witness it in the Islamic world too, will eliminate this disgraceful stain from the Islamic world.[2]

Ahmadinejad said that the issue with Palestine would be over "the day that all refugees return to their homes [and] a democratic government elected by the people comes to power",[3] and denounced attempts to normalise relations with Israel, condemning all Muslim leaders who accept the existence of Israel as "acknowledging a surrender and defeat of the Islamic world."
The speech indicated that he considered Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip to be a trick, designed to gain acknowledgment from Islamic states. In a rally held two days later, Ahmadinejad declared that his words reflected the views of the Iranian people, adding that Western world was free to comment, but its reactions were invalid.[4]

Sooooo ya think this is the voice you want ehoing in the UN?

What will happen when (not if) the Iranians have their nuclear weapons? Will they attack Israel?

Do you really think so? Starting a nuclear attack would mean the immediate and complete retaliation and thus destruction of most Iranian cities, military installations and industrial centres. I don't know if you are aware that Israel has nuclear armed submarines, so Iran cannot destroy Israel's nuclear capability by a simple attack with long rang missiles.

There is a simple law in modern strategy, it says that not one country with nuclear weapons has ever attacked another (with nuclear weapons). This is not a lucky circumstance (although luck belonged to it during the cold war), this is pure logic. Since nuclear attacks lead to the nuclear holocaust of all parties involved (plus others).

So, the question runs down on a simple one: Are the religious and political leaders crazy enough to accept their own death to erase Israel? I think not. They are no suicide bombers. They just have a few of them.

So there is no danger to be expected from Iran.

The bigger question is what danger erupts from a preemptive strike from Israel and/or USA to try to cut down the nuclear capabilies of Iran. Well, this means (conventional) war for sure. Iran would be forced to retaliate.

So, everyone comes to the clear conclusion, that doing nothing is the best way to go forward.

Dani

If war breaks out in the Middle East, all countries that have neglected to support the legitimate demands of the Palestinian people will pay a price.

The only thing Iran is doing, is verbal provocation, they will never attack first. Iran is just waiting for Israel to loose their nerves.

The best thing that can happen to the region is that Iran and Iraq are united under one flag or become close allies supported by Russia and China.

The lobbyists of the weapon industry control the Middle East foreign policy of the USA. They were the reason for the war between Iraq and Iran.

Anyone who thinks this is erased from the memory of the ordinary Iraqi or Iranian is neglecting a key factor in understanding the emotions that are present in their minds.

The main reason for 9/11 is the hypocritical attitude of the USA with regard to Saudi Arabia. Once the USA is less dependent on Middle Eastern oil everything will change. Obama has been very clear on that.

Given this context it is understandable, that any ally of the USA who behaves in a unreasonable way with regard to the faith of the Palestinians is treated in a similar way.

Another example is CNN. Altough CNN tried to focus on modern slavery, not a single word is mentioned on Middle Eastern practises in this respect.

As far as EK and the UAE is concerned, they are just (ab)using the USA as a lobbyist for their global expansion. More planes & weapons = more USA jobs = more new destinations = more UAE locals that feel as strangers in their own country.

This whole mess was started by the British political elite, everything they stick their noses in, changes into ****.

The reason you dont see this issue mentioned in the UAE and because the CNN you see in the UAE is broadcast from Abu Dhabi! Abu Dhabi CNN is nothing like the CNN in the USA or CNN International that is broadcast in the rest of the world from the same building in Atlanta!

I couldn't agree more. Blair and his cronies have a lot to answer for. Now we have a PM who has no backbone or guts and has done nothing to promote peace in the region. Blair just sticks his nose in ME affairs and swans around acting in the role of an envoy.

If anything started by either side all this govt will do is put up the price of fuel.

Thank you Sitty, good to know I'm not the only one here seeing the bigger picture.


To all who think Ahmedinejad wants to distroy Israel, watch both till end:






Now go back to watching Cable News Nonsense.