Inflation Inflation! EK what to expect of the pay review?
 

UAE inflation will accelerate to 10.1% this year before easing to 8.9% in 2008, the poll showed. Prices rose 9.3% in 2006, the fastest pace in 19 years.

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/50640...in-2008-?ln=en

2006 = 9.3%
2007 = 10.1%
2008 = 8.9%
Total = 27.3%
So Basically 19.4% in the last 2 years. How much pay raise did we get? About 10% a year? (Can't count the 3% since it is not a pay raise but a salary increment) Just enough to keep up with inflation. What if we consider exchange rate? And what if we consider the cost neutral changes to the credits. You end up working more for your money.
So finally it comes to light that we end up making less today than 2 years ago. What's in store for 2008? My guess 10% + 3%
So really, are we making more money then 2 years ago?
What do you think?

I agree with you all the way, but do you think that TC and AAR really care as long as they see bums on pilots seats.

They don't care where their from or the quality of pilot, just numbers. Look at how the training's been brought down to the absolute minimum. :=

It's been that way for years so don't expect it to change anytime soon. :ugh:

Inflation?
 

And how high is the inflation rate in your home country?
Don't just focus on the UAE, where the cost of day-to-day living is still relatively low as compared to Europe, Canada or the USA!
Don't forget that the cost of petrol and insurance for your car is much lower than at home - for one thing......could mention many more.
Pilots all over the world (and not only pilots!) are being hit by inflation, increase in taxation and decrease in salary and working conditions!

With all respect, but what I saw in the UAE recently, you guys in the Gulf region are not too badly off. Of course, there is always something better somewhere else...but not for many!

Do some research and you will find that others are also facing some - sometimes even big - problems.

And looking forward.....in another three years or so, things might really get hard for many!

Cheers,

JI

So Puff,
Your post would infer that you then are a quality pilot. Such arrogance is usually an indicator of the opposite. Does that mean that the earlier the selection the higher quality the pilot.

That would make you of lesser quality than all the guys that joined before you. EK has always needed more pilots so using your logic you are of a quality of your selection year. The best at the start and the worse at the end. So you see its all relative. Bit like a wine vintage for w@nkers.

Interesting that people slag off the selection much like A levels are easier each year, and yet one of the first arguments used vis a vis ek detractors is a slagging based on the assumption that they failed selection and so are bitter.

What a crock of sh1t. I know some quality people that have joined EK on both seats in the last year. and some utter t0ssers as long ago as 2000.
You do the math.:ok:

So funny
 

I don't post much here for the exact reason of these two examples. Is it so hard to stay with the subject of the thread. I'm asking you what do you thing EK will do in 2008. Not what is the inflation in Europe, Canada, USA, Or about your perception of someone posting a reply. At least Puff brought a point related to the question. Talk about the subject. If you have emotional relief to be exercised, please do it on a proper thread.
And the question was...
What do you think EK will do in 2008 to counter the record inflation in the UAE?
Pretty simple?

My guess:
Not more and not less than during the earlier years. If the gvt says their very true and unbiased inflation is 9,3%, we'll get a 9% rise. If the big cheats say we barely made the profit target and fuel is sooo expensive, then we'll get 51/2 weeks profit share. If you behaved well, did all the pelesys sh*t dilligently, you'll get 3% carreer rise. The housing is only a problem for EK, the ones who are out of compacc are left alone, the'll get maybe 5% more and end up paying 20% more out of their pocket. Schooling increases will be none of EK's business so parents will have to brunt the 20% more. Below the line end of the month we'll all have about 8% less, the difference to the effective inflation.
And still pilots continue to come as Del Amitri sing: "Nothing ever happens, nothing happens at all, the needle returns to the start of the song and we all sing along as before, and we'll all be lonely tonight and lonely tomorrow".
Before 2005 we were able to save a little, today we are just covering our costs. Tomorrow we'll have to pay to stay, meaning a negative balance. That's when the big bunch is going to leave. Mainly Europeans, Kiwis and Australians.
Before some heavy metal is grounded for lack of crew, the glorious emperors AAM, TC, MF and AAR will continue to parade naked and everybody continues to tell them how neatly they are dressed. Behind their backs we all despise them today already. And it shows on the motivation, some crews lately weren't too far off BA or DL ambiente....

My X-mas wish this year is that some top body or top shot tells them they look awfull, all naked, and not some smoking hole.
Now let's replay Del Amitri

Marry Christmas
GMDS

another day another price increase.
 

situation is great, everything cost more.

todays price hike item is bottled gas will now be 96 AED for the medium bottle while in September 2006 when I showed up it was 64AED.

calculate how you like, in the 16 months its 50% increase in that item alone,

Oh and we get knock on effects when you eat out because it cost them more to cook.

Im shocked over the price of bottled gas , but if you are with EK you dont pay.

euro zone inflation is ca. 2.4 %.... no comparison..mate.

I was talking today with a long-term Dubai resident who isn't in Aviation, but to listen to him, you'd think he was, for his complaints - (complaints that he says are shared by most of the people he deals with in Dubai) - were almost exactly what you see here from the EP Pilots' Moan Club (of which I believe I am a charter member). He even mentioned one friend who is planning to up sticks and move his business to Bahrain - same problems, but a cheaper cost of living and, most importantly, the ability to enjoy a lifestyle that Dubai's gigantic building site/perpetual traffic jam simply won't allow any more.

The conversation led me to saying that someone at the top in Dubai seems to have fallen into the trap of believing their own propaganda. Why did Western expats come to the Sandpit back in the 70's and earlier, to live in what were in many ways pretty difficult conditions? The answer is - the money. People were willing to put up with a lot of discomfort because they were able to put enough away to make the pain worthwhile, and leave them with enough money saved to enjoy a comfortable life post-Sandpit.

That equation has been lost for 99% of Dubai residents over the last few years, from Pakistaini labourers to middle level Western managers (which most of us would probably feel we equate to). Simply put, for almost everyone, the cash flow dribbling into the bucket on the right shoulder is no longer balancing the **** pouring at a far faster rate into the bucket on the left shoulder.

And unless someone towards the top recognises this fact really soon, enough (including this little black duck) are going to cry "enough" and give the Sandpit away.

Apologies to all for this reply but it needs saying;

Peterowensfanclub

Before you launch another written tirade against a fellow ppruner, perhaps you should have all your facts available first. If you have been in EK for at least the last 4 years or so, you'll realise that 'puff m'call' was merely stating facts. Training has been brought down to a minimum.

Initial CRM used to be a 3 day event off at some hotel. It's now a 2 day in the classroom. The 3 yearly all day Pilot dedicated CRM recurrent has now been replaced with a 2 hour SEP slanging match with the Cabin Crew. No wonder this years 'useful' topic is stress management. Our 4 day recurrent PPC was reduced to 3 days 2 years ago and is now a 2 day affair. Everything is now becoming a tick in the box exercise on our home computers through pelesys. Even a 30 minute course on how to become better leaders. Yeah right, that'll work. They want the end product but they don't want to pay for it. And that's what's happening to some extent with recruitment as well.
The standards are still within the required level but they're most definately not as high as several years ago. The levels of performance and experience of new Pilots has dropped within this band and is now reaching the lower part of which we can drop no further. Unless of course entry requirements are lowered. I have yet to meet any trainer who would say otherwise. Of course there are some very capable guys but it's the average standard that's declined, especially pertaining to communication.

I'll be happy to discuss further on another forum or PM me but don't ever come on here as a 'professional' and slag someone off when all you're proving is your ignorance.

Harry

Now, back to the thread.......................

Tx for sticking to the post. Inflation it is.
 

By the way! Here is an update!
UAE consumers will be hit hard, with inflation likely to rise to 12%, the chairman of Sharjah Chamber of Commerce and Industry told Emirates Business 24/7. Ahmed Mohammed Al Midfa said “With many families in the UAE depending on salaries, high inflation will affect the purchasing power of the residents.
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/50659...ue-to-escalate
Remember the tendency of agencies to be very conservative when they publish negative forecasts around here. Bring some more examples and post them here when you find some. We need to really know... Don't we?
What is EK going to do about it? Tell me Tell me?

Gas cylinder price spike
 

The cost of gas cylinders in Dubai has jumped by more than 20%, with Emirates Gas and Emarat announcing hikes yesterday, Sunday, reported Gulf News. The cost of an 11 kilogramme (kg) cylinder has gone up from Dhs43 to Dhs53, while a 22 kg canister has risen from Dhs76 to Dhs92 and a 44 kg container from Dhs143 to Dhs187.
http://www.ameinfo.com/142106.html

Surely the only way to solve all our moans and groans is an obvious pay rise. But hey how many ppl thinks we are getting it please raise your hands. Hmmm that is none is see.

From a non pilot perspective
 

Our department want to make the default basic salary pay rise 0%, i.e. not have any cost of living raise (excluding allowance raises). The merit pot allocation would then be used to give greater increases to higher performers .. sound theory so far ... but with the rampant inflation I think there is a risk that people will just leave quicker as they would sink more quickly than they are now. We would then struggle to replace the ones we wanted to as our packages are not that attractive. 'Spose it's one way of flushing out the poor performers!!

...the silver tint in the dark cloud...you can get the Chinese girl now for 300 UAD,which is a nice 40% deflation.Of course,don't tell them to come back for the eggs:}:E

Harry,

Touched a nerve, I apologise. It was not a tirade and I shall post my opinion as I see fit, but thanks for the advice anyway.:ok:

Muttley - you were lucky.

I had to provide two photos and a copy of my visa :}

There is one constant in EK:

The Goods and Services you can purchase for each hour of work put in for EK has got less each year for the past decade.

This sums up EK's productivity policies, inflation, dirham decline and all the rest.

Never forget there are hundreds in EK's admin dedicated to this very task. Some are also extremely competant in this area. Its not likely to change any time soon. So stop wishing for some miracle.

We can mash out the numbers and statistics anyway we want but the constant remains the same

My villa is now going to 250,000 AED annually. That is a lot of money and for that money if I was in London or NY I would be living large. But in Dubai I have only 3 bedrooms and less space I had back home. Also I am lucky to have a 5X5 patch of grass and a tiny little space for an outdoor table which I can use 4-5 months of the year. Such a baragin!
Many ex-pats have already called it quits and many more to come because it just is not worth it anymore. The inflation is worse than the falling dollar but both bad. I have the the distinct feeling that it is nothing more than greed because even the products from dollar pegged countries have more than doubled. Why? There is no currency fluctuations there, why do they have to raise so much?
250,000 for a villa, just a crime and we accept it!

Across the UAE prices took a sudden rise over the new year.

Many retailers increased prices of stock over the new year to deal with their increased costs. Most of it is subtle, a few dirhams here and there but in percentages the range is 30-80% over a large number of everyday items. Obviously this will be reflected in the final bill for multiple items.

Many services also increased costs for 2008. E.g. Maid services went up by Dhs 5 with many companies. This represents about a 20% increase.

Does anyone have any idea as to whether we will get a preview of salary increases in Jan or Feb as we did last year or was that a one off?

....Probably... but my guess is 7pc plus the usual 3pc annual increase.
If we're lucky we'll probably get a revision on the flight pay. :{

No, all the payrise will be on the flight pay, as that has no pension, erp or holiday pay component. In a couple of years we will be like the cabin crew 50% of our pay will be hourly. That way the senior managers get an even bigger slice of the profit share :ugh: :ugh:

The 3% is pretty much certain as this is a yearly step ostensibly for loyalty, years of service etc. We used to have a schedule on this. Does anyone know if it still exists?

The flying pay will approximately double. This gives about a 17% rise at the bottom of the F/O scale which attracts new joiners depending on how the company spins it.

At the top end of the Captain's scale the increment is about 9.5%. This is approximately in line with published inflation figures for the UAE. No captains on the top scale will leave as its difficult to match the package elsewhere.

If the cycle is repeated for 5 years with flying pay adjusted to keep the total pay increase in the region of 10-15% then flying pay will represent approx 50% of the total monthly pay package.

The total increase for Provident Fund, ERP etc obviously only goes up by 3% which means over the years they can decrease it to negligible levels. If it goes up by 3% for 5 years while inflation stays in the 8-10% bracket this would represent a 30% devaluation of company contributions.

Again the company indirectly recovers cost when employees are on leave or are sick.

Flying pay was a definitive step toward a scheme of a basic retainer and pay for productive work while diluting other company package contributions. Pilots are no-longer considered professionals but simply hourly wage earners.

And this from the pilots club..
 

INCREASE IN MEMBERSHIP FEES: Beginning February 2008, the EPC Membership fees will be increasing. This increase was approved at the AGM, held in December 2007. Single membership will now be AED75pcm, and Couple membership will be AED150pcm.

Is that a 50% increase as I am not sure what they pay now?
Dirt.

I am glad EPC have raised the membership fees hopefully it means we can keep the deals we have now.
Still a bargain:ok:

Complete and utter bargain!!!!!!! :ok::ok: Nice one boys

EGGW

No problem with EPC. It's great value, thanks guys.

whereas...

Unfortunately i have to agree. But as long as the competition in the region is managed by junior league clowns, backed by silly and ignorant owners, there's not much more in it for us. The poor pilots from these laughable outfits are constantly knocking on EK's door. Why should they up the package then? To replace those defectors, the clowns recruit the more inexperienced or desperate. But even these guys realise, that after a short while, and after increasing their hours, they can knock at this same door .... and the story repeats itself.
Pilot shortage is not that much of a problem for the best in the league. It only stops when the influx stops and this will only happen after a smoking hole when the affected outfit then raises the conditions etc. etc. (see GF tragedy). As cynical as this sounds, it has been proven over and over and no one seems to learn. :yuk::yuk::yuk::yuk:

So we have to brace for more erosion of our conditions. Which, and i repeat myself, are still pretty good, just as the ops. But that's not a reason to simply accept such an erosion as long as the owners increase profits. Allthough i am out of ideas on how to defend ourselves, i have to admit ......:(

GMDS

Well lets face it, technology is making up for eroding flying skills, communications and centralised operations management make up for lack of command skills. Hence it requires less and less ability to be a professional pilot.

Airlines recognise this and hence true salaries have decreased over the past 3 decades. Sure demand will go up but so will supply. The supply will be of a generally lower quality and experience level but nonetheless adequate to fulfil the task except on relatively rare occasions.

Given the scarcity of these occasions it boils down to economic risk management. Occasionally hulls will be lost but if catered for in the planning, the risk may be acceptable.

As aircraft technologies and airports improve the remuneration for flying can only go one way.

What about the level of responsibility? Bigger airplanes, more people, more problems, more rules, more destinations, more risks, no protections... It's not about skills, it's about responsibilities. How much do you need to get paid to go to work being the last slice of cheese...

That last slice of cheese.. Wouldn't be dine on demand would it?:\:\

EPC is our best deal
 

Even with this increase it is bloody cheap.
Guys in EPC do an outstanding job ! And they don't get paid for this. Thanks EPC!:ok:

My prediction is: Inflation rate here is gonna be unacceptable (Just like the last few years).

In today's press:

Business (Gulfnews)
Economy

Inflation hits Gulf business confidence
By Cleofe Maceda, Staff Reporter
Published: January 10, 2008, 00:55


Dubai: Business confidence in the Gulf has dipped with businesspeople complaining about inflation, the fourth quarter 2007 HSBC Gulf Business Confidence Index shows.

Read the whole article on this link:http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Economy/10180719.html

INFLATION - WHAT TO EXPECT ?!?!?!

Are you kidding?

Over the new year prices rocketed in Dubai. Inflation for January is now over 20% PA.

US has no choice but to cut interest rates to prevent or at least mitigate recession. Bernake stated as much today. The dollar is going down futher and with it the Dirham. If you are getting ERP you are probably peaked at the cap so your salary will now go down in tandem.

Along with this so will your Provident Fund if you are in US Equities or cash.

Standby for rampant inflation this year, with a dwindling salary. It all means one thing. LESS DISPOSABLE INCOME or LESS SAVINGS.

If you are in any doubt look at the Gold and Oil prices in Dollars or Dirhams. They tell the truth as they are tangible commodities. If you thought 2007 was harsh you aint seen nothing yet.....

I agree with Schismatic. The price increases after the New Year have been
incredible. Almost every tag displaying the prices on the supermarket shelves
have been manually altered and increased. I think I could conservatively say by 20%.My local car wash is now 30dhs up from 20dhs and the super duper one at the defense round about is now 35 up from the usual 30.(although I must say this is still great value).Now those "happy pilots" amongst us may say this is also occurring in the 1st world. True however my fear is that coupled with the de-valuing US$ and the previous steep inflation in Dubai we are in for a hard year in the hip pocket.EK will address the problem with the usual 3% and perhaps a increase in flight pay of lets say 5%.However,they will get it back in productivity. Certainly factoring will again raise its ugly head along with 24hr layovers in IAH,SFO,YVR and LAX.I wont even mention what will happen with the allowances down-route. My guess is an overall package reduction in relation to the rest of the world of 15% after the review in March.

Inflation, Currency Movements, Salary Increases etc. We can debate for hours.

Simple Fact: If you look at a comparable EK salary e.g. Joining F/O or 5 years with the company Capt, the salary has dropped dramatically when measured against almost anything.

Forget the numbers; take the salary and see what it bought in terms of Gold, Property, Oil, Grain, Labour etc. and the depreciation is huge.

EG A Starting EK FO in 1997 earned 12 Ounces of Gold. Today he earns 6.2 Ounces. Try it with oil, wheat, whatever you like and the ratios will be comparable. Same for an EK captain.

Little wonder the employees are cynical. Being told you are worth less every year hardly buys loyalty.

The "its not so bad" brigade make me laugh. Sure if they came from a worse circumstance then things are better. If anyone has been here for some time however then they naturally would feel unappreciated given the EK profits over the same periods have risen when measured against the same benchmarks.

True - In fact in many areas the true salaries have fallen dramatically in the UAE, squeezed by companies, a declining dirham and the associated inflation.

Unfortunately most people get focused on the numerical amount and its percentage increase when they get a raise. A 15% salary raise, for instance, is hardly exciting, if the currency drops 10% and inflation runs at 10% as it has over the last year. And these figure are conservative!

The goverment realised this when it gave their employees a 70% rise. It was simply putting their comparitive earning power back in line with what is was some years ago. Of course this move will in itself fuel inflation as someone has to pay the bill. Standby for large increases in any government service. I believe DEWA costs are to go up in the next month.

Anyone joining an airline in the region should simply check the trend of salaries against some tangible asset before making choice to move here.

EK salaries have undeniably fallen considerably over the past decade. And there is no magic bullet of pilot shortage that will remedy this. EK have sucessfully navigated this hurdle before and still kept lowering the real costs of the employees.

The downward trend has never been broken.

Pixy you are correct the banks here want it both ways ( they do all over the world but not quite on the same scale as here!) I now keep NO spare cash in this beautiful place everything goes into a decent currency crap exhange rate or not!
On the subject of the declining dollar for those sending money to the UK the pound has weakened dramatically against the dollar over the last two months and looks set to continue this trend with many currency traders predicting a $1.70 to the pound by the end of this year.:ok:

Gordon Gekko
 

Motto of this place is the same as Gordon's...Greed is good!

Time to Name and Shame

Does anyone know of any banks that HAVE cut mortgage rates?

I know my bank HSBC have done nothing at all and say they do not intend to do so.

Yeah Greed is Good but ultimately it will be your undoing. What happened to Gordon..