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-   -   Inflation Inflation! EK what to expect? (https://www.pprune.org/middle-east/304785-inflation-inflation-ek-what-expect.html)

Thridle Op Des 28th Jan 2008 13:28

Mashreq has dropped our rate twice in the last three months.

schismatic 28th Jan 2008 13:41

Interesting TOD.

What are you paying now if I may ask. Is this a standard variable reducing balance loan or a Shariah Loan?

Info much appreciated

Thridle Op Des 28th Jan 2008 14:09

The former, looking at my statements again, I had a 0.4% increase in August 2008, a teeny weeny 0.005% drop in November and more substantial 3.2% drop in December. (the teeny weeny bit may have been a bank 'correction' so my not actually count, but the direction was encouraging no matter how small!)

I am in agreement with the general mood of the thread - inflation in UAE is a serious issue for all of us.

Regards

TOD

emratty 28th Jan 2008 15:46

I don't know what you all think but since christmas the price increases have been huge, everything from getting your car washed at the jinglymatic to a loaf of bread. My better half just paid 8dhs50 for one manky red pepper from Choitrums:eek:
Ek have to be real with the payrise 5-10% is not going to cut it we all know the REAL inflation here and it isn't 10%.
Pilots are not leaving at the moment however with how things are going and with the shocking rosters that have been issued this month that could change very quickly.

ekpilot 31st Jan 2008 19:04

Just getting better and better... 12% now for 2008
 
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/50978...-inflation-hit

Businesses have been badly hit by rising inflation, with costs increasing faster than they can be passed on to customers

Question is: With the much favorable context of monopoly in the UAE, do you expect more than the predicted forecasted 12% of inflation for 2008 to be passed on us eventually? Will it affect your lifestyle? And what is your guess of the real inflation in Dubai?

I say 20% easy... my guess!

Lil Bro 31st Jan 2008 21:47

Forgive me for being dumb, but...

I thought it was against Islam or the Koran to charge interest??

schismatic 31st Jan 2008 23:37

This in 7 Days:

http://www.7days.ae/en/2008/02/01/ua...-rate-cut.html

This in Gulf News

http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Ban.../10186459.html


Its going to get a whole lot worse.....
Like previous years any salary review will bring us slightly short of where we were this time last year and for the rest of the year savings will be diminished. This has been going on for at least 10 years to the point where a joining F/O is earning half of what he did ten years ago when adjusted for inlflation.

baob2oba 1st Feb 2008 03:32

Interests...
 
"""Forgive me for being dumb, but...

I thought it was against Islam or the Koran to charge interest??"""



So this is how it goes...

_"What's the interest rate?"
_"There's no interest rate sir, this is a PROFIT rate"
_"Ahhh, and what's the difference ?"
_"Well, we don't apply any interest but we charge a profit on your transaction"
_"Ahhh, so what's the difference ?"
_"Well, we will buy the goods under our name, apply a fee, then sell it back to you, you repay a fraction of it every month"
_"Ahhh"

If you dig more, they will try to make you understand that the profit rate is an administrative fee...

Gulf News 1st Feb 2008 14:20

A mate of mine in the financial industry here tells me that the banks have been instructed by the Federal Government to mantain their current interest/profit rates for at least 6 months as measure to control inflation. Too bad the government does't follow its own policy on inflation control. If they did they would not have awarded government employees a 70% payrise which is starting to push inflation to unprecedented levels after government payday last month:ugh:.

disconnected 1st Feb 2008 14:37

How does paying more for something that should be less get explained as controlling inflation?

Lower housing payments would be a relief on my pocket.

Sounds like a great excuse for making more money. Now the government wouldn't have a vested interest in the banks would they.......

schismatic 1st Feb 2008 14:50

UAE inflation in danger of hitting 12% this year
 
"Inflation in the UAE is in danger of hitting a 20-year high of 12% this year unless the dirham is revalued or depegged from the US dollar, investment bank Merrill Lynch warned on Sunday. The firm said in a report the absence of a tight monetary policy, combined with strong capital inflows and weak fiscal prudence would likely up drive inflation across the Gulf.

"Inflation is likely to stay on an increasing trend in the short term," the bank said. "With heated domestic demand, pegs to the sliding US dollar not only import inflation and fuel domestic liquidity but, more importantly, they also import easing monetary policy." Gulf states' peg to the dollar forces them to track US monetary policy at a time when the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy.

Merrill said inflation in Saudi Arabia might average 6% this year, compared with 4% last year, while in Oman inflation may rise to 7.2%, from 4.4% last year, and in Bahrain to 4.5% from 3%. Despite breaking ranks with neighbouring Gulf states and depegging from the dollar in May last year, Merrill said Kuwait was also likely to see inflation surge in 2008/09 to an average of 6.6% from 4.4% last year due to rising house prices.

The bank said Qatar, which has the highest level of inflation in the Gulf at 14% last year, may see inflation drop slightly to 13% for 2008/09 due to housing supply coming on to the market. Merrill said inflation would continue to keep pressure on Gulf states to revalue or depeg their currencies from the tumbling dollar. "In a region with constrained policy choices, we expect currency strengthening to be used as a policy tool in the fight against inflation. Therefore, de-pegging and/or revaluation of the currencies will remain under spotlight," it said, highlighting the UAE and Qatar as the most likely to change their monetary policy.

"In a region with constrained policy choices, we expect currency strengthening to be used as a policy tool in the fight against inflation." The bank also disagreed with GCC governments' assessment that inflation was just temporary, and said non-market measures such as higher subsidies, allowances, "irrational" wage increases and caps on rents would only mask the problem and not solve it."


Its already past 12%. Latest estimate is foreign labour is suffering 15% inflation. Source - Financial Times:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23d469ba-c...0779fd2ac.html

critical winge 2nd Feb 2008 03:58

For Locals there is no inflation, only Jubilation. Government workers with a 70% payrise and Local Pilots get the <special UAE Allowance WAYYYYYYYYYY above the ERP>

SIC 2nd Feb 2008 05:20

15 years ago THEY NEEDED YOU to build up Dubai - and THEY PAID YOU FOR IT.

Now that every pom and his mate ( as well as Eastern European, South American, Aussie, Saffers and the like ) WANTS to come to Dubai the tables have turned.

NOW YOU NEED THEM to make a living - AND YOU WILL PAY FOR IT.

Simple demand and supply:ugh:

Gulf News 2nd Feb 2008 05:21


How does paying more for something that should be less get explained as controlling inflation?
Because if borrowing costs are lower people will borrow more to buy more stuff. In a free market economy (ie without price controls) more money chasing fewer goods will cause inflation.

I agree that residential mortgage rates should be reduced as this should improve supply and reduce rents in the log term with everyone getting a fair shake of the dice but once you have lived here for any length of time you realize that the economy is terribly slanted toward making a section of society filthy rich at the expense of others.

disconnected 2nd Feb 2008 07:08

Gulf News, I see your point but I think it will backfire. If there is a peg it should remain in all aspects. If certain areas are slanted the peg will get strained with unpredictable consequences.

Liquidity being extracted from other markets needs a place to go. American Dollar holders and borrowers can now use these dollars to buy dirhams and invest in middle east property. They will pay borrowing rates far lower than available in the UAE. This will push up property prices (and everything else) inflating the bubble. There is no currency risk as the two are pegged.

If the disparity gets any worse we will have a carry trade on the Dirham with no currency risk!

BigGeordie 2nd Feb 2008 17:35

Everything, absolutely everything.

ekpilot 2nd Feb 2008 18:24

You won't save much here with this inflation
 
The rising cost of living is having a direct impact on employees' ability to save money. To illustrate, 41 per cent of UAE-based expatriates reported making no savings on their income, the highest figure in the Gulf.

http://www.ameinfo.com/141739.html

It is really out of control, these are just not rumors, they are hard facts.

2006 was 9.3%
2007 was 12.0%
2008 well your guess

We need to get 12% on all parts of our famous package just to stay where we are. Well i think we are heading for a definitive pay cut this year. What do you think? :rolleyes:

disconnected 2nd Feb 2008 21:26

Inflation vs Salary Increases
 
In the 1997 Pay review, a First Year F/O got AED 15720. There was no flying pay.
On the EK Recruitment website today a First Year F/O gets AED 20840. Flying 75 hours he will get a further AED 2625 making a total of AED 23465.

The increase over 10 years of 15780 to 23465 represents an annual increase of 4.1% per year.

You dont need to be a genius to see that compared to published inflation figures, salaries have fallen drastically and continue to do so.

Against realistic figures tracked on non-government websites, the situation is far more depressing.

fatbus 3rd Feb 2008 05:03

has anyone had leave bought back

BigGeordie 3rd Feb 2008 05:12

Here's an interesting link to a report published by a recruitment agency in Dubai:

http://www.costoflivingdubai.net/2007.aspx

It refers to, not surprisingly, the cost of living in Dubai in 2007.

disconnected 3rd Feb 2008 05:26

From that article:

Of course, official figures may not agree. Inflation and cost of living data tends to vary a lot in Dubai because the population itself varies so much: it’s hard to pin down one “average” consumer, given the wide range of cultures, incomes and lifestyles in the city. Moreover, UAE Nationals benefit from subsidised or free healthcare, education, utilities and housing, so an official “inflation” rate of --% may be true for Nationals, but wholly inaccurate for the remaining 85 per cent of the population....

Very true.

ekpilot 14th Feb 2008 13:25

Here is the proof! Not Rumours...
 
Just click on the other links of this nice resumé of articles in the local newspaper the Gulf News. It covers Commodities, Education, Rent and Properties, Transportation, and more articles. In my opinion the rising cost of living is more like 20% inflation . If you are planning to come and live in Dubai you should read all these articles carefully which by the way are not from a rumour network.

http://archive.gulfnews.com/indepth/costofliving/

Enjoy :ok:

schismatic 14th Feb 2008 13:34

We aint seen nothing yet. MUCH more to come.....

http://www.gulf-news.com/nation/General/10189616.html

http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles.../10167150.html

The UAE has become too expensive to sustain the expat life. Most of my friends in other professions have either received a large payrise or are leaving.

menard 14th Feb 2008 20:25

EKpilot, schismatic

Absolutely true, like you said, not from rumors, FACTS.

When people not living here see guys calling a 6% or 9% pay rise a joke, do a little research and you will understand.

That's just ONE of the negative aspects of life here. Most things (Money, rosters, vacations, days off....etc etc) have been constantly deteriorating, explaining people's frustration.

BigGeordie 17th Feb 2008 16:44

This just in:

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/51143...vy-users?ln=en

Increases in utility costs for high users- but does not apply to UAE Nationals.:hmm:

Obviously does not affect people in company accommodation (yet!) but gives you an idea of the way things are going in Dubai- although in fairness this is the first increase since 1998.

ekpilot 18th Feb 2008 07:04

Someone do something...HELP!
 
A utility bill increase would add to soaring inflation in Dubai, which already has the highest cost of living in the United Arab Emirates. Inflation in the UAE hit a 19-year high of 9.3% in 2006.

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/51143...on-heavy-users

2006 inflation figures:rolleyes: You want 2007? Well 12% and you want 2008? Probably the same as the future increase... watch and see!

My guess? 30% DEWA increase.

disconnected 20th Feb 2008 08:23

Last Year's Inflation accelerated to 10.1% - Reuters
 
Schismatic - 9.2% inflation last year is conservative. Already being revised upwards:

Annual money supply growth in the UAE, an indicator of future inflation, jumped 33.8% at the end of September, central bank data showed on Monday.

M3, the broadest measure of money circulating in the economy, was 623.4 billion dirhams ($169.8 billion) on September 30, compared with 466.08 billion dirhams a year earlier, data obtained by newswire Reuters showed.

Inflation may have accelerated to 10.1% last year, according to a Reuters survey of economists. (Reuters)


http://www.arabianbusiness.com/51151...nflation-surge

K9 20th Feb 2008 08:43

10.1 % My a$$!

DUBAI (Reuters)

The price of basic foods in the United Arab Emirates surged 36 percent over the last year, in part because the dollar-pegged dirham declined, making some imports more expensive, the local Gulf news reported on Thursday.

http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2008/02/14/45623.html

ekpilot 20th Feb 2008 09:02

Keeping the accurate info
 
Guys thanks for backing what you say with facts, then it's much harder for some to try to discredit what is being said here on PP. One big problem with the published figures of inflation is how they are calculated. "disconnected" and ''BigGeordie" mentioned it already in previous posts. Here again an example in yesterday's local newspaper the gulf news where the utility increases are not applied to the inflation figures because they don't affect the Emiratis. They have so many discounts on all aspects of living here compare to expats.


Emiratis are exempt from the new rates.
http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles.../10190474.html

ekpilot 24th Feb 2008 07:34

That's the reality
 
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/salar...on-to-quid-job

Just not worth living here anymore. The boat has passed... a few years back! Now coming in the middle east today is for those who always get somewhere to late. You know what I mean. I'm looking for the next good thing. It is out there for sure... and it's not here that i know 100%

Keep Discovering :ok:

rampstalker 25th Feb 2008 22:46

right on the head buddy
 
Well you hit the nail right on the head buddy, all the costs of gen life have been raised in the past 12 months and your salary will not follow this trend. housing, education, spinneys to name but a few. I am no longer in the UAE but in the far east where life goes on at a slower pace and much cheaper. Many adverts in flight.
Just one thing guys, if you do bail out from there, make sure of your provident payout or refund is taken care off the day you submit the resignation. Information passed to me was it would take three weeks to obtain, 5 months later I am stil waiting.
All you wanabees, thinking of the UAE, ONLY if you are desperate take it

The Real Pink Baron 26th Feb 2008 02:42

are you for real
 
Tell me again you are still waiting for your prov. fund???
Did you do a runner, or did you not pay your bank loan? Did you give the proper notice?

disconnected 26th Feb 2008 20:03

Euro, Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie hitting record highs against the dirham and dollar. Even the battered pound is reclaiming its levels.

EK salaries dropped a little more today and further cost of living increases guaranteed in future months.

The Dirham will not be devalued any time soon as the labour is so cheap!

Enjoy the paycut - There is a lot more pain to come....

5man 26th Feb 2008 21:14

Well the US dollar has just hit all time low against the Euro. Sigh even if inflation stops in Dubai, we are all taking a pay cut. Is there on end to these depressing drops. Futhermore no signs of the government going to peg the dirham to another currency. :ugh:This is how i feel

The Real Pink Baron 27th Feb 2008 03:08

Rampstalker
 
Have you been waiting 5 months for your prov. fund?
Or are you just on a very cruel windup?
Please respond!!!!

5star 27th Feb 2008 15:24

50% price hikes since january 2008 (Dhs):

EPC membership : 100 now 150 /person/month.
Cleaning service : 25 now 35 / hour.
Gulf News :2 now 3 / issue.

Do you want me to continue ??? The list is long...

This price rally is really getting insane. :yuk:
it will be very interesting to see what happens in april with our pay(-rise?)...

disconnected 28th Feb 2008 01:56

Yet another day of paycuts!

No they will not de-peg or revalue. The only pressure is inflation and that is purely a political pressure in most countries. Here it is not, as the locals can always have a pay rise or some allieviation. What do the ex-pats do? Hardly likely to be a political pressure here.

So no revaluation. They are making too much money out of us all!

Enjoy the paycut... Enjoy the inflation.....

This years salary review? Less than the salary devaluation over the past year that is certain. All wrapped up in some flowery language to say how lucky we all are...:yuk:

rampstalker 28th Feb 2008 03:43

no s...t
 
thats about the time. No I did not do a runner from the sandpit. Three months notice as required by both employer and employee.
I am not the only one in this situation, can give you emails for other unfortunate persons that found themselves in the same situation. I will not print names in this forum but can email

The Real Pink Baron 28th Feb 2008 07:23

Rampstalker
 
Please do!
This could make a huge difference to lots of leaving dates!
We are already being sk****d by changing T&C without having to worry about this!

disconnected 29th Feb 2008 06:46

And another paycut...

Anyone who cannot see that employment at EK simply results in a declining earning power is delusional....


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