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Qatar Airways - The Inevitable

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Qatar Airways - The Inevitable

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Old 28th Aug 2002, 08:00
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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ia1166 - sorry you feel that this thread is horse manure. I apologise if any of my previous comments have contributed to this feeling you have. But, you do have a choice. Avoid it if you don't like it.

I am not Akbar Al-Baker, by the way. But thanks for your comments in this regard.

Why only for pilots?
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Old 28th Aug 2002, 12:56
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CaptSnails,

First of all GF employed vertually all Qataris who applied, except ofcourse those who did not meet the required standards. The truth of the matter is that (the average) Qataris had much better things to do than to learn how to be a professional pilot. See per capita income and compare that to the rest of the owner states.

I didn't say that Gulf Air rejected Qataris but they didn't create as much jobs for them as in the other member states. Most jobs were created in Bahrain followed by Abu Dhabi.

Also Qatar may have a high per capita income but most of the income is either used to pay off external debt or to re-invest in the economy and infrastructure so the money hasn't yet trickled down to the population. Also Qatar only became the top in the region in terms of per capita income in recent years. Upto about the mid-90's Kuwait and the UAE leaded.

As far as GF reducing flights from Doha, that only happened when QR started flying and demanded to take a share of the routes. Besides a country like Qatar does not justify many more flights because of lack of shear passenger volumes in and out of Qatar

When I mentioned GF reducing flights and not employing as many Qataris as from the other states I meant it as an explanation for the Qatari government to buy equity stake in QR and NOT as an explanation for why QR set up in the first place.

GF didn't make Doha a major transfer hub, which is not their fault since Bahrain and Abu Dhabi made more commercial sense and that is one of the reasons the Qatari government started to back QR in 2000.

As I said I was trying to explain why the government is backing QR and not why QR was set up in the first place.

So assuming today the total population is approximately 600,000(of which 75% are low income expatriates) please justify how it's possible to sustain an airline of the size of QR never mind its ambitious growth plans, considering Qatar is a country with absolutely no tourism and most certainly not a hub for Asia or Europe

Last year Qatar Airways carried a total of 1,820,000 passengers. Of which over 700,000 thousand were begining or ending their journey in Qatar, the other 1,100,000 are transfer passengers so your statement "most certainly not a hub for Asia or Europe" is not true. This year Qatar Airways aims to carry 2,500,000 passengers which would require an increase of 40% over last year. So far the passenger figures show more growth than they predicted. For example in 1Q 2002 they carried 65% more passengers than 1Q2001. They are also trying to have an equal number of O&D and transfer passengers to improve yeilds.

WRT Tourism, I wouldn't say there is "absolutely no tourism". Tourism in Qatar has been growing at a rate of ~20% per year and this year with the set up of the GTA, summer festival and the participation in the ITB, ATM and other Tourism expos we should see growth figures double that of last year.

In Qatar most tourists are from other Gulf states, mainly from Saudi Arabia, Oman and Kuwait. We also have many tourists coming in from Germany and to a lesser extent from other parts of Europe, who come here mainly between October and March.

The reason why you don't see many young tourists in the beach, or clubs etc... is because the government doesn't want to attract "fodder tourists" who are mainly younger tourists on a tight budget who like to go to the beach or clubbing, since they don't contribute much to the economy and are not sensitive towards the culture and the environment. Qatar is trying to attract more sophisticated, richer and older tourists who spend a lot more money then their younger counterparts and also are usually more sensitive towards the local culture and environment. They usually hang out at the luxury hotels, golf clubs and take a lot more time to experience the local environment and culture rather than bake themselves in the beach during the day and drink themselves silly at night.
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Old 29th Aug 2002, 03:00
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MTQatar, I agree with most of what you say and my point is that I believe that Qatar Airways has a future however it's growing at a disproportionate rate.

I firmly believe that the coup that happened in 96 (if I remember correctly) was the best thing possible for Qatar and its people. The previous Emir failed to or was not interested in developing the economy. I think that the present Emir and his government have done an excellent job within the short span of their reign. Anyone who has been in the region for a number of years prior to the coup like myself will agree that Qatar has changed and is changing dramatically.

I also agree that in no way would the "backpack" western tourist provide much to the economy nor the culture of the country. I do however believe that Gulf national tourism alone would also not provide the potential growth you require. What has to happen here is that the government has to provide incentives to large corporations to move to Qatar and at the same time promote tourism and expand the economy.

Making Qatar a hub for traffic to Asia and Europe is not easy either as you have massive competition with Dubai, Bahrain and Abu Dhabi which are already quite well set up for that. Certainly there is room for a National Airline but the growth plans I've seen do not reflect reality.

My point is large is not necessarily better.

We both know very well that within the local culture there is extreme competition with "thy neighbour", if he builds a villa, I'll build a bigger one, if he makes a summer festival I'll make a better one and like wise if he makes an airline I'll make a bigger one to show how much ritcher I am. All this is fine and dandy while the gas and oil dollars flow but that will not last for ever. Diversification is very much required in the Gulf and the only one's that have trully realized this is Dubai. I'm not implying that the oil and gas will stop anytime soon but if there is a market crash and prices fall the local economies will be devastated. It's the old saying of having all your eggs in one basket.

Anyhow I'm probably boring you to teers so as I said before, regards and good luck to Qatar airways.
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Old 29th Aug 2002, 04:11
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CaptSnails,

QR is growing fast and if you read some of my previous posts you will see that I don't agree with the level of growth. I think QR should concentrate on existing routes and not enter new ones unless they are important (e.g. MAN, HKG and NBO). I also disagree with QR strategy to chase passengers rather than chase yeilds. Though I still think that over all QR is an important asset to our economy and they should not be abandoned.

WRT to your comment "My point is large is not necessarily better. " I agree completely and so does Al-Baker. Here is a quote from an interview with Al-Baker earlier in the year.

FLUG REVUE: Qatar Airways is currently one of the fastest-growing airlines in the world. What is your ultimate objective? Do you want to repeat the success story of Dubai-based Emirates?

Al Baker: No we want to stay a medium-sized carrier with a maximum of 30 to 35 aircraft, not 100, as Emirates is planning to fly in a few years' time. We want to maintain the high standard which we have today with twelve aircraft into the future as well. A 70-strong fleet requires a lot of compromises in the product. If one is small, it is easy to retain a proper overview and keep the business under control. If something happens at my airline that impairs our product, I find out immediately and can take appropriate countermeasures. We plan to freeze our fleet expansion no later than 2005 and then wait until we get our A380's. But we are servants of our country, and if my government wants me to expand more than is allowed for in my business plan, then I have to obey. We are geared towards the requirements of the state.
I think though that since then the plans have been revised to incorporate a few more aircraft, I am sure Riscy has more info on that.

I also agree that in no way would the "backpack" western tourist provide much to the economy nor the culture of the country. I do however believe that Gulf national tourism alone would also not provide the potential growth you require.

Gulf tourism is a good start and offers the GTA experience in attracting tourists. In the past year Qatar has been promoting tourism in Europe and the US even by participating in Trade Shows, cooperating with tour operators and marketing the country through the media. Qatar Airways has done the same too, through seting up "Destination Qatar" and marketing Qatar as a destination heavily. QR have also introduced packages similar to those that EK has done where transfer passengers don't take the next available connecting flight but instead spend a night or two in town. This has been especially popular with passengers originating in Asia.

What has to happen here is that the government has to provide incentives to large corporations to move to Qatar and at the same time promote tourism and expand the economy.

The government is doing just that. If you are ever in Doha schedule an appointment with someone at the Economy or Municipal ministries to show their efforts.

Last edited by MTQatar; 29th Aug 2002 at 04:17.
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Old 29th Aug 2002, 10:51
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Mister Geezer,

Thanks for your questions. I reply as follows, for the purpose of clarification:-

1) I am an Aviation and Transport Journalist;

2) I am freelance and do not write for any specific publication, but rather several;

3) The article that I am working on just now is not for publication in Mallorca. It is a training guide that is being prepared for a large and well known UK institution who train personnel in the field of international business.

4) As such, Qatar Airways is just one of a hundred or so companies from different cultural genres that we are including in the study.

5) I merely live in Mallorca. It's my chosen home and I have been here for a while. Where exactly did you reside when you were here? You may know me from the Mallorca Daily Bulletin in the late 80's!!

6) The Emir of Qatar, as you know, has several properties on the island. The Qatar Amiri flight are regular visitors to the island. Since I spend a lot of my time at Son San Juan, I used to see the aircraft frequently. In the main, it was the A310 that would come here. However, lately we have had both the A320 and A319CBJ. I must state, though, that I havent seen a Qatari flight here for quite some time. The 747SP of HBJ was often here prior to its disposal last year. Mainly, the aircraft of Qatar would be positioning in from either Nice, Paris or Corfu. Rarely did the aircraft come here straight from base.

7) I have no particular special interest in Qatar Airways per-say. However, I have found that PPrune is an EXCELLENT source of information on the Company. Most of it checks out pretty well.


Now......my question to you......:-

a) I don't know how well you are or are not connected to the Airline, but can you confirm a report that I have had from a supplier that Qatar have placed an MoU for 2nr. Boeing 777-200ER aircraft, for delivery in June / July 2003?

Anyone who has info on this - please let me know.

P and V
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Old 29th Aug 2002, 19:21
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Palma,

I have heard that HBJ is getting an A330-200, don't know if it is true or not, I thought you wanted to know.

WRT to the B777-200ER, Qatar Airways has been looking at it and the A340-500 for a while. They need extra capacity to LHR and Asia and they also need an aircraft with the range to do DOH-NYC non-stop in 2004.

The A340-500 has long been rumoured as the winner both through my contacts within Airbus, and from discussing it with QR staff like "Tom Cruise" on this forum. In my mind it was the logical choice since the amir is getting one and QR are an all-airbus fleet. Riscy, who is more knowledgable than me in the subject has said that Boeing and GE are giving them a better offer over AI/RR so the MoU could be true.

According to "Riscy" the order would be for 3 firm + 2 options which could be revised to 6 firm + 2 options at a later stage so 2 B777's seems too small a number.
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Old 29th Aug 2002, 20:12
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Can the 777 make it from DOH directly to JFK during the summer?


Mutt.
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Old 29th Aug 2002, 20:36
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Palma

Thanks for your detailed reply, I hope your research goes well. To answer your question, I have spent some time in Costa del los Pinos. I still love the island and I try to go there when I can.

Also of possible interest, was an article in Flight International in the issue that was issued straight after Farnborough. There was a bit of crystal ball gazing going on with reference to what QR's fleet plan is. I don't have the magazine to hand but maybe since you are in the media business it might be easy for you to get a copy of the article if not the magazine itself. The only thing I can remember is that the A340-500 was a key feature in its expansion plans. No surprise really since EK are customers for the A340-500 and it appears that these aircraft will be earmarked for potential USA routes. I recall that the Amiri flight was also seriously looking at the A340-500.

QR have never been a Boeing customer in recent years and a B777 does not make sense or if mutt's previous question is true, could the 777 be used a stop gap until the A340-500 arrives? However I have a gut feeling that the 777 would be stretched to operate a JFK route esp in hot conditions.

Cheers

MG
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Old 30th Aug 2002, 12:10
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MAS fly their B777-200ER's on the DXB-EWR route even during the summer. Granted that they don't carry much cargo besides passenger luggage but they use lower a lower MTOW version with the Trent 890 engines. If QR get the GE90-94B or the RR Trent 895 with a higher MTOW they should be fine, QR will also have the benefit of having a longer runway and the DOH-JFK route is about 100nm shorter than DXB-EWR.

QR could still get 777-200ER's for Asia and LHR and get a couple of LR's for JFK.

<i>"I recall that the Amiri flight was also seriously looking at the A340-500. "</i>

an A340-500 has already been ordered and is due for delivery in June 2003, but would probably go to LH Technik or some other VIP outfitters for a few months before coming to DOH.
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Old 31st Aug 2002, 12:12
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Mister Geezer and others,

Thanks for your replies and PM's to those whom have sent them. As requested by some of you, I hereby publicly post information that I have which confirms that Qatar HAVE signed an MoU for Boeing 777 equipment.................I belive it is the -200ER series and I also am told that the machines will be used on non-stop Doha-USA routes commencing 2004!

If anyone at QR can confirm this, I would be grateful.

V and P
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Old 31st Aug 2002, 12:36
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PdM,

I can confirm 100% that QR will fly to NYC starting early 2004 it was anounced officially by the CEO himself. But am not sure about the B777, it was unofficially anounced that QR would take the A340-500. Is your source reliable? and how many B777 were part of the MoU?
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Old 31st Aug 2002, 13:40
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Sorry Palma. I have to agree with MTQatar on this one. I have heard that the A340-500 is the only equipment that QR will consider for their routes across to the USA. I think that the Boeing option is a non-starter...................

But, stranger things have happened. Just makes no sense whatsoever to introduce the 777 into an expanding and successful all airbus fleet.

Unless, of course, Boeing are willing to come way way close on an extremely attractive financial arrangement.
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Old 31st Aug 2002, 18:21
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Just out of curiosity, is this JFK service going to work? I am under the impression that traffic from the ME is not that great esp. after Sept. 11 and the U.S. getting tough on visa applications. It seems QR will be after the Indian traffic to the U.S. (very low yield I believe) so making money on that route will not be easy. Anyone?
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Old 31st Aug 2002, 19:16
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Boilermaker,

I doubt the route would be a commercial success but no doubt it is very important. Emirates plans huge Americas expansion including at least JFK, ORD, IAH, SFO, LAX, YYZ. GIG, GRU, EZE and QR has to have some sort of presence there.

QR would have a good mix of O&D and Transfer passengers. Tourism travel to the US from the Gulf has dropped significantly, it think the figure was upto 50%. QR's O&D hope lies in the increasing American population in Qatar. 10,000 US personell and their families are relocating into Qatar they will of course use military charters as a main form of transport but about the same number of civilian support are also moving in and include to that the increasing number of Americans in the Hydrocarbon, and educational sectors and they should be able to have a a good passenger base.

Transfer passengers are also different, Pakistani and Indian passengers are low yeidling and travel almost exclusivley in Y and are not commercially viable unless you have a charter configured aircraft with reduced catering etc...

QR though could repeat their European startegy and attract Gulf transfer passengers, although they are low yeilding they still are higher yeilding than Indian/Pakistani passengers and fly in F/J more than Pakistani and Indian passengers.

Cargo would also be very good, I read an article about QR's cargo operations out of London and a lot of high-yeilding cargo from the US, mainly in support of the oil industry is carried by QR.

One last advantage is that QR would have a US partner and would be part of an alliance so feed at the JFK end would be good.

I still think that the route will not be profitable but It is important for QR to get a foot hold there. QR get a lot of passengers on their Euro services from North America, fed in by LH, AC and UA including plenty of J and F class passengers and if QR don't have a non-stop US service they will lose out to EK.
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Old 31st Aug 2002, 21:53
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Ach ! the "Propaganda staffel" strike again........!!!
camel and goat..... to ORD or LAX or NYC......... you guys are dreaming !!!!
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Old 1st Sep 2002, 00:59
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Lightbulb Qatar to Star???

Just had a bit of a brain fart folks. I was thinking a bit about QR and their 'partners' at the moment. They codeshare with LH and have an agreement with them on frequent flyer schemes and QR have an agreement on frequent flyer schemes with bmi as well. Well.... since LH and BD are both in the Star Alliance, the question I put to you people is:

Does QR have its sights on joining Star???

I know this is pie in the sky but look at the time I posted this!!!

MG
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Old 1st Sep 2002, 03:43
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Can anyone tell me why EK didnt start the USA route with the B777, why are they waiting for the Airbus?

MT, surprisingly enough, that space shuttle landing strip that you call a runway , doesn’t actually offer any benefit in takeoff weight for the B777 when compared to Dubai. In both places the aircraft will be climb weight limited, it should be able to achieve MTOW (295t) at up to 32°C, after that the weight falls off dramatically.

What temperatures does DOH get in the summer?

Cheers

Mutt.
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Old 1st Sep 2002, 10:25
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3000psi,

I got the list of destinations straight from Emirates. They are very ambitious indeed. The only firm North American destination for QR though is NYC (Don't know if JFK or EWR)

Mister Geezer,

You are right, QR are going to enter an alliance in the near future, being the first airline in the region to do so. In interviews made with Al-Baker in 1998-2000 he always said that they want to enter into Star Alliance and 2001-Today he says we are looking at all the three major alliances.

mutt,

Thank you for informing me about the runways. I don't have the average summer temperature on me right now.

"Can anyone tell me why EK didnt start the USA route with the B777, why are they waiting for the Airbus?

I recall when EK recieved their first B777-200ER's they said they will use them to the US. EK's B772ER are able to do 5200nm with full payload (according to their website) the DXB-JFK route would be approaching 6000nm, that would mean EK would have to reduce payload on the route. I guess unlike MH they are not willing to compromise on payload, especially in cargo which should offset the low-yeilding connecting passengers. EK also need their B777-200ER's for other destinations which are considered higher priority than JFK.
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Old 2nd Sep 2002, 12:40
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um cani just say something here...

A300man does not work for QR! i have known him for a longgggggg time...he has been a great help with info about QR as i want to persue a cabin crew career with them.....he knows a lot yes....but that is cause he has a lot of contacts there

thats all i have to say

cheers from oz
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Old 2nd Sep 2002, 17:39
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Evening MT,

mean EK would have to reduce payload on the route. I guess unlike MH they are not willing to compromise on payload

So does this mean that QR would be willing to compromise on the payload if they got the B777?

The distance from DOH-JFK is 6000 ngms, so I guess that DXB is 6100 ngms, does anyone know how much shorter the planned EK polar route is?

Mutt.
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