Will Qatar Airways Order the C-Series @ Farnborough? Bombardier Needs The Order!

[Iver]

This post is pure speculation. Please move on if you are not interested...

Given that Qatar Airways and Al Baker have stated in the past that they are interested in the Bombardier C-Series for short haul and long, thin routes, and given that Bombardier is HURTING for C-Series orders in a major way, could we possibly see a C-Series deal at Farnborough? I guess anything is possible. But Bombardier really needs a big C-Series deal. All of the previous orders for C-Series have been relatively small - 10 and 20 aircraft orders. Al Baker is very shrewd and he can smell blood in the water I am sure - if he wants a great deal with a desperate manufacturer, perhaps now would be the time to get a great bargain. Al Baker has proven that "concept" airplanes do not scare him - he will order them anyway to get the best price.

Perhaps Al Baker could tie a big C-Series order (employing many Canadians) to a bigger access-to-Canada deal for more Qatar Airways flights to Toronto, Montreal, Calgary and Vancouver - who knows? I would certainly tie any C-Series deal that benefits Canadians to more market access.

Here is a recent article highlighting Al Baker's interest in the C-Series - but it sounds like a bluff to me (we are too busy now - great for more negotiating leverage). I realise the introduction of the 787 and other new aircraft types and the unbelievable HR backup (hiring, training, etc.) are true, but he has studied this airplane for a long time and he has many advisors who could help him. Again, this is pure speculation but I can bet that Bombardier needs a big C-Series deal right now because of the dearth of high-profile orders from big-name airlines with clout.

So, if not at a high-profile event like Farnborough, when? Bombardier needs the order momentum. True that Korean ordered something like 10 airplanes - but only 10? That doesn't do much for buyer confidence. Big aircraft lessors have also encouraged Bombardier to get aggressive on pricing to get the orders flowing. I am sure Al Baker is aware of this aggressive pricing pressure - and he would use it to his advantage.

So, Farnborough would be the PERFECT event to do a huge deal with Qatar Airways - which is surprisingly a very vocal fan of the C-Series. Qatar Airways wants the airplane (but perhaps not now because they are too busy) and Bombardier needs a big-time order of 50+ airplanes to get more orders flowing... So, Farnborough could be the ideal stage - especially with Qatar's 787 demonstration. It may not happen at all, but if not now, can Bombardier afford to wait much longer and watch any momentum continue to dissapate?

The first flight of the smaller C-Series is expected around the end of this year. See the C-Series website here:

Bombardier CSeries


See article about Qatar's on/off interest below:


Qatar Airways in no rush to add CSeries but will order business jets

By: Ross Marowits, The Canadian Press
Posted: 04/12/2012 1:55 PM | Comments: 0 (including replies) | Last Modified: 04/12/2012 8:27 PM

MONTREAL - Qatar Airways is in no rush to add Bombardier's CSeries aircraft to its growing fleet but will order several business jets to expand its executive service, the airline's CEO said Thursday.

Akbar Al Baker said he will announce an order for Bombardier's new Global aircraft at next month's Ebace air show in Geneva, for delivery around 2016 or 2017.

The airline already operates a fleet of six Bombardier business jets. It hopes to eventually offer 10 to 15 aircraft, but Al Baker wouldn't say how many planes would be included in this order.

Qatar has shelved plans to order the CSeries while it is busy preparing to receive four new aircraft types — Boeing 787, Airbus A350 and A320Neo and another he didn't want to identify. The company is spending more than US$50 billion for 270 airplanes.

Nonetheless he remains interested in eventually ordering 20 to 30 of the larger version of the 110- to 149-seat commercial plane, plus adding as many options. The aircraft would be used for Qatar's regional service and flights of less than 2 1/2 hours from Doha.

"The CSeries is a very good airplane for a niche market," he told reporters after a lunch-hour speech.

"It is very fuel efficient and it is a very technologically advanced aircraft and I'm sure that Bombardier will be very successful in this venture."
Al Baker planned to tour Bombardier's production facilities and see the plane's updated cockpit and systems designs. The CSeries is slated to enter into service the end of 2013, with the larger model following a year later.
Bombardier (TSX:BBD.B) CEO Pierre Beaudoin said the company is still in discussion with Qatar over a CSeries order.

"It's a product that gives the performance that is needed in that region," he told reporters.

[Willie Everlearn]

My opinion?

I don't expect to see Bombardier sell any CSeries at Farnborough. I hope they do. But, I'm guessing the CRJ1000 and Dash 8 Q400 might be safer bets.

I think most airlines like to see aeroplanes actually fly before they order something unproven, so I suspect it could well be Le Bourget next year (after their first flight) before they draw their next orders. A380 and B787 nightmares considered.

I disagree.
The future of Bombardier does NOT depend on Mr. Baker. Why would you think that? His window of 'discount' may well have closed already. Or could he be one of those so-called undisclosed or unamed buyers?

This company knows the true value of its CSeries and I shouldn't think they are about to sell it just for the sake of selling cuz losin' money ain't necessarily better than...losin' money?

I wouldn't say Bombardier are "desperate" to sell their CSeries. At least not yet. It is a very diverse Transportation company that makes huge bucks in Business aircraft (merci Mr. Buffet) and choo choo trains.

Undoubtedly, the CSeries will be a similar success to the CRJ and could well do even better.

I think early buyers of the NEO and MAX are going to be disappointed they didn't wait and see. Giving into the hype may cost them big time. I'd say Bombardier have been too low key (typically Canadian) with their CSeries marketing campaign and not as "in your face" as they probably should be with this remarkable new airliner.

If you think about it, after all the years the B737 and A320 have been available the only thing either manufacturer can offer is a new engine, you have to wonder how much of a perceived threat the CSeries truly must be for both.
Could pilots have some safety improvements on the flight deck to go along with those new engines???

Apparaently not. And not many ever seem to mention it. Except Boeing. Who've said they are not going to touch the MAX flight deck.

Willie Everlearn

[flying apple]

What do you actually mean with safety improvements?

[Iver]

Willie Everlearn,

Great points. Thank you for contributing to this thread. I have a couple of responses:

- I agree that Bombardier (in general) does not need C-Series orders to survive. The Q400 and Global Express lines are selling well. The point is that Bombardier needs some "Marquis" customers beyond Korean to buy the C-Series in bulk in order to get more attention/momentum. Since Qatar Airways and Al Baker have expressed their enthusiam for the C-Series in the past, Qatar would be the ideal next customer - especially since QR tends to buy in bulk... If QR ordered say 50 C-Series with 50 options, that would get peoples' attention - and I am sure Al Baker would get a great price for an airplane that would fill a short-haul/long-thin gap (there is no current regional-like service for Doha and QR could use probably use regional or long-thin feed for the bigger 777/787/A320/A330/A350/A380 aircraft). I am sure many markets within 1000 NM of Doha probably could be better supported by smaller C-Series aircraft vs. A320s.

- QR could leverage the positive 787 attention at Farnborough and really blow-out the airshow by making an additional big aircraft order. If not at Farnborough, when is the next opportunity when the spotlight will be on Qatar Airways?

- Although anything is possible with the 737 MAX cockpit, my bet is that it will not change much because Southwest Airlines in the States is a big customer and they have been known for their insistence on cockpit commonality. In fact, the archaic overhead panel on the 737NG is due in large part to Southwest's objection to change anything relative to the older versions so that pilots would not need additional training - they wanted standardisation. So, if Southwest is one of the largest MAX customers, I would not expect much change - even if it is absolutely needed and desired by many pilots.



More opinions/persectives welcome....

[Airmann]

My 2c for what it's worth:

Al Baker has already publicly stated that he will not order any more aircraft at farnborough:

No Qatar Airways Orders at Farnborough - Airline News - Civil Aircraft - Aviation Forums - Flightglobal Airspace

So doesn't look likely at this time.

I agree with what everyone else on the thread has said, Bombardier don't need the C-series to sell like the 320 in order to be profitable. Actually I think they're in much better shape than Boeing is with the 787. They have to sell a ludicrous number before they break even.

Secondly, I think that airlines are waiting for the real performance numbers to come out before purchasing this aircraft. The A320 NEO and Boeing 737 MAX have sold well because they are the only aircraft of their size and everyone flies them and needs replacements for their current fleet of narrow bodies, and I think everyone wants to get in the queue as early as possible.

As for a regional jet, I don't think the market calls for people to order them years in advance, just look at the order book for the CRJ or E jets.

Personally, I believe that this airplane is going to meet or beat everyone's expectations, and when it does it will be in demand. Bombardier looks to have their act together on this aircraft and hopefully it will be flying and delivered on time. The 5 abreast concept is also great, and it fills a market that is definitely there. But like I and others have said, it's just that the market is such that people arent queuing up to get their names on the list for one, they can afford to sit and wait since no one has really made a move, and at this stage, once ordered the aircraft can be delivered fairly quickly.

As for QR getting more landing rights for buying the C series, I'm not too sure about that. Does the Canadian govt hurt air Canada in order to benefit Bombardier? That's another debate I don't want to get into because it will never end. And what's to say that the Canadian govt would even offer that deal, it just doesn't deem to be their style. but If they did we'll likely see EK ordering around 500 of the type. They'de probably start it on the new direct Dubai-Hay River run!

[Willie Everlearn]

Iver,
Thanks for the feedback.

In the imaginary airline world that exists in a small corner of my mind, I imagine a wealthy Gulf State who’s airline CEO must be terribly keen to launch a competitor for two neighbouring Trucial State LCCs.

I suspect that same CEO understands quite well the favourable economic potential the CSeries presents as a serious competitor to the MAX and Neo. That same CEO might also be considering investment and business opportunities in neighbouring states who suffered LCC failures in recent times as a potential business opportunity for similar ventures. His midas touch and track record might well work. What the CSeries offers in the 100 – 130 seat capacity and range is perfect. More economical than the heavier competitor aircraft who seem only to espouse fuel savings while staying away from other realities like landing fees, ground handling fees and navigation fees.

Why his state airline is a smorgasbord of aircraft types is difficult for me to understand. The pleasure derived from playing A against B must be an incredible power rush which you and I aren’t likely to understand or experience anytime soon. Were those types from a single OEM (A or B) you’d think the economic return would be more favourable than what it might actually be at present.

At the end of the day, for me at least, neither QR, EY, or EK represent ANY industry standard. They are entirely in a class of their own outside of any standard in which the present day airline industry struggles to exist.

I also imagine a struggling state airline in the land of hope and glory watching a cheeky Irish LCC steal away domestic market share while a second LCC seems to enjoy a relatively easy existence between the two . This struggling state airline would undoubtedly benefit by shedding B737s and A320s in favour of the CS300. Imagine LCCs offering an all Business Class CSeries sector London City to Chicago Midway, Washington or New York and vice versa?

I doubt the CSeries will see the 275 unit single orders the CRJ enjoyed. I can see the 10, 20, possibly 25 at a time single order. But, until the aircraft is on line in day to day ops, we’ll just have to watch this space.

Lufthansa is the real launch customer in my opinion and even if Korean is, there aren’t many more ‘marquis’ airlines out there to top Lufthansa and if that’s any indication of the RJ sales (whose launch customer was also Lufthansa), it may just be that history is about to repeat itself.


Willie

[Iver]

Willie,

Great point about Lufthansa/Swiss. I forgot about it... And that's part of my point - the momentum (probably partly due to general economic conditions) has stalled for the C-Series - especially with the talk abou the 737 MAX and the NEO. A big, blockbuster order from an "avant garde" airline like Qatar could be viewed as a big asset for Bombardier's sales efforts. A big order from Qatar would be viewed as a great endorsement - and the timing at Farnborough would be great for all parties. You are correct that he could then possibly use some in a Saudi LCC venture. Keep in mind the smaller C-Series won't even be available for another year or so at minimum - the timing could work if he could get some early delivery slots.

As for Al Baker saying he wouldn't do something - yeah, perhaps. But we all know he is a shrewd negotiator. Sounds like an invitation for Bombardier to make a lower-priced offer to get him moving... You never know.

I read somewhere that the Embraer E170 had a similar number or even lower than the C-Series when it was at the same stage of development - and yet the E-Jets are a sales success. So, there is time for the C-Series to get bigger orders - especially once it is flying and hitting its performance targets.

Still, I would love to see a blockbuster order from QR... Looks like a great airplane that pilots (nice FBW and updated flight deck), management and passengers would enjoy. I'd be happy to fly it for QR - if they would hire me... I am partial to that 787 too.

[Willie Everlearn]

5 CSeries sold with options for 5 more at Farnborough today.
Not a world beater, but sales just the same.
It can be a slow and arduous climb to the top but one must remember when comparing the MAX and Neo with the CSeries, they aren't in the same markets.

Bombardiers next new aircraft could well be in a larger category and a larger aircraft AND compete with larger Boeing or Airbus aircraft for sales. IF one or both Boeing and Airbus are still in business round 2020-2025?

Who knows?

Willie

[CIAS]

FARNBOROUGH: Undisclosed customer signs deal for 15 CSeries aircraft

By: Farnborough
12:59 8 Jul 2012




Bombardier has announced during the Farnborough air show today that a twelfth customer has signed a conditional order for 15 of its CSeries aircraft.
The order for five CS100 and 10 CS300 aircraft is from a customer that the Canadian manufacturer says does not currently wish to be identified.
The CSeries is scheduled to enter into service in late 2013

[Iver]

But Bombardier is still trying to add marquis customers...

Sure, this would be an uphill battle to gain a foothold in an all-Airbus operator like Air Asia - very unlikely. But you can't blame Bombardier for trying... Interesting that they are now proposing a 160-seat CS300 aircraft - not due until 2014 I believe. Certainly 160 seats is more competitive with an A319 or A320 in terms of capacity. I'd like to see a range and performance comparison with the Airbus aircraft at the 160-seat number... How does the proposed C-Series (CS300) stack up with an A319/20 at 160 seats?

No doubt Qatar Airways, if interested, would go for the lower seat number version to preserve its first class section and "5-star" service. Still, very interesting that Bombardier is trying to morph its product to fit the needs of the fastest growing airlines. Good luck! Most airlines would benefit greatly from now having three manufacturer choices at the 130-160 seat range with more competitive pricing.

See article below:

Bombardier swoops on AirAsia at Silverstone summit

By Alan Baldwin
SILVERSTONE, England (Reuters) - Canada's Bombardier (BBD-B.TO) is in talks with AirAsia (KLS:AIRASIA) about a more densely packed 160-seat version of its CSeries jet, in a surprise bid to loosen the stranglehold on Asia's largest low-cost carrier held by European giant Airbus (EAD.PA).

AirAsia founder and Formula One boss Tony Fernandes discussed the proposal with Bombardier's chief executive Pierre Beaudoin during preparations for Sunday's British Grand Prix at Silverstone, the two company leaders told Reuters on the eve of the Farnborough Airshow.
"We've got Pierre Beaudoin as a guest of mine. He's brought us a very interesting product for a 160-seat Bombardier and we're looking at that," Fernandes said.

Bombardier wants to break into the lower end of the jet market dominated by Airbus and Boeing (BA) but has so far concentrated on appetite for aircraft up to 130 seats. The 160-seater would be a denser configuration of its CS300 aircraft.

Asked how optimistic he was of breaking a record run of Airbus orders by Fernandes, Beaudoin told Reuters, "He had no choice before, but now he has a better product to look at."

But, speaking to Reuters in his Caterham team motorhome in the rainy Silverstone paddock, Fernandes said talks were also continuing with Airbus over the purchase of at least 50 more A320 jets as the two sporting and aerospace events overlap.

"Whether we can finalize it by Farnborough I'm not sure because there's quite a lot to be done. Airbus is coming to see me…. The clock's against them to try... and I've got to get board approval," Fernandes said.

The potential new $4 billion Airbus order, first reported by Reuters in May, concerns the current edition of the 150-seat A320. AirAsia is interested in more of the jets as it waits for the more efficient A320neo which is being developed for 2015. It placed a record 200-jet order for these last year.
Asked about the deal's volume, Fernandes said, "I still think we need 100. But we'd probably do 50 and 50 options."

AirAsia is not talking to Boeing (BA), he added.
Airbus declined to comment.

'WE ARE NOT BAIT'

Fernandes entered Formula One in 2010 as principal of Lotus Racing, a team that has twice changed its name and now races as Caterham - the niche British-based sportscar maker Fernandes purchased after falling out with Lotus Group.

The racetrack summit between Fernandes and Beaudoin suggests Bombardier is still nipping at the heels of the two largest planemakers, despite failing so far to make significant inroads into their core single-aisle markets.

Its efforts to snag one of Airbus's most important clients come as the European planemaker is itself locked in a deepening market share battle with Boeing.

Airbus moved swiftly to dismiss the Bombardier threat. "I do not see how a CSeries aircraft would economically fit into the AirAsia fleet," sales chief John Leahy told Reuters.

Fernandes would not say whether any deals could be completed at Farnborough but said he would visit the July 9-15 event to pick up an airline award and announce a components deal.

AirAsia targets growth in Indonesia and particularly Japan.

Bombardier dismissed any suggestions that AirAsia, one of Airbus's largest customers, was using the CSeries or the timing of the sports and aerospace calendars to lower the Airbus price.

"We are not concerned about being used as bait - on the contrary, we are being seen as a lower risk alternative to the A320 family," Benjamin Boehm, vice president of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft, said in a telephone interview.

The 160-seat proposal brings Bombardier into the middle of a market well defended by Airbus and Boeing, but the Canadian firm continues to see 130 as the sweet spot for its new aircraft.

"We compete with the A319. So it's a shorter version of the A320 and this is where we have a real competitive advantage," Beaudoin said.

[Jetaim]

I know it's fricking hot but ...get a life

I know it's fricking hot but... get a life.

[gourm]

Flying Demo 787 yesterday Farnborough

Boeing 787 Farnborough 2012 Display - YouTube

[Iver]

Jetaim,

Feel better now? Do you feel cool? Thanks for contributing. Nobody is holding a gun to your head to read this thread. It is an aviation forum. How about you quit being a dork.

[Chuck Noris]

I would not worry about Bombardier, they have a solid company, a proactive management, and good employees. They always start productions of there project with the minimum order and/or letter of intentions. There aircraft are delivered with minimum or no delays and have always beat there performance predictions. Look at the CRJ and the Global Express. The CSeries will be no exception.

This is a game changer aircraft when it will be flying, Company will start ordering.

My only concern is that sadly, companies because of the huge investment involve, will go for a better financing deal instead of the better aircraft. If my memory is good, during the mid 2000 financial crisis Bombardier sold his financial arm to GE finance.

[jackx123]

Seems QR made $206 million in profit last year.

Delivery of 380 will commence 2014 with the new modified wing.

[Willie Everlearn]

To be clear on the CSeries, I mis-spoke by implying the CSeries is a direct competitor to the Neo and MAX. It isn't.
Competative aircraft to Boeing and Airbus. Yes.
Competative aircraft to the A318, A319 and B737-600 would be a fairer comment.
The CSeries is a 100 or a 130 seat aircraft aimed specifically at those segments of the market.
Sales will be centered on that capacity range which is the fastest growing market segment.

Willie

[Iver]

Great video about the C-Series flight deck

Just found this video about the C-Series flight deck (includes the C-Series project pilot from Swiss Airlines):

CSeries Flight Deck - First Glimpse by Swiss Air Lines Captain - YouTube

Looks like another fantastic airplane to fly! A lot better than my current airplane. Too bad not many days left for QR to sneak a big C-Series order into the books at Farnborough... I guess the Bombardier salespeople are holding the line on price.

Here is another good description of the C-Series cockpit (ProLine Fusion, FBW, etc.) with the same Bombardier Salesman:

You Tube

[Chuck Noris]

Side stick I hope they won't do the same mistake then Airbus and put a cross control feedback.

[Iver]

Any predictions on whether Qatar Airways will start talking about the C-Series again at the Paris Airshow this year?

Al Baker has stated he is interested in the aircraft.... With the new airport at Doha almost complete, is this the year a deal is reached? You can bet Bombardier will be ready to do a big deal....

Thoughts?