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Virgin Buys 10,000 Tamiflu Doses for Staff

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Old 3rd Nov 2005, 17:20
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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guys, where are you getting the "when" it arrives from? And even if it is "when", then the questions is "what?"

The problem I have is not that avian flu exists, or that it "could" mutate and move to the human population, but the excessive spin that is put on the story to create a 1918-style armageddon pandemic with millions dying and the world falling apart. This could be the viral equivalent to the Y2K computer scare/scam. Reams of excessive bulls*it on the subject don't fix anything or do anything constructive - all they do is sell newspapers, make profits for drug companies, and give cheap publiclity to airline heads.
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Old 3rd Nov 2005, 17:48
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>So far, more Asians have been killed by coconuts falling on their heads than have died from bird flu !

You are over 1100 times more likely to die in a bicycle accident then in a shark attack.
Your odds of a Drowning Death - 1 in 3 million
Your odds of a Shark Attack Death - 1 in 265 million

Meanwhile assess your risk:-
http://danger.mongabay.com/

And see what the 'experts' say:-
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article...806010,00.html
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Old 3rd Nov 2005, 19:43
  #23 (permalink)  
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bear11
This could be the viral equivalent to the Y2K computer scare/scam.
As one who was involved in that, I will now waste my time by saying: You have no idea how much got fixed! You have no idea just how MANY examples there were of computer failures in 2000 that were kept out of the headlines. The threat was real and the problem was averted. And, NO, I did not make shed loads of money out of it, I was just working normal hours.

Nowadays, no one gets any 'brownie points' for preventing things going wrong. The only rewards in companies are to fix things once they HAVE gone wrong. The attitude shows itself in the airline business when directors and managers, shave away at flying crew working hours and rostering or preventative maintenance or recruitment and training standards.

Once there is horrible mess on the ground, then the big shots will all ride to the rescue to 'ensure that this never happens again' which is too late for the dead people.

History tells us that epidemics and pandemics occur and if we ignore history, it will take us by surprise. We cannot avoid all of the problems but we cam ameliorate them. Here is a crude test that is not meant to be technically, simply put into airline terms:
  • Check the a/c brakes to make sure that they are ready for an RTO at the last possible second.
  • Don't check the a/c brakes because they worked OK yesterday.
Which action do you choose?
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Old 3rd Nov 2005, 21:20
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Calm down.

Now let’s qualify that: Since December 2003, the H5N1 bird flu virus, which has caused all the fuss has been responsible for the documented infection of 121 people, 91 one of whom caught the virus in Vietnam. In all cases where information on the chain of infection has been confirmed, the virus was transmitted either by repeated close contact with fowl or via the ingestion of insufficiently cooked chicken products. In not a single case has human-to-human communicability been confirmed. So long as that remains the case, there is no bird flu threat to the human population of places such as Vietnam at large, much less the United States and Europe.

An uncomfortable but undeniable fact is that there are a great many people and institutions in this world that have a vested interest in feeding the bird flu scare. Much like the "Y2K" bug, bird flu is all you hear about. Comparisons to the 1918 Spanish influenza have produced death toll projections in excess of 360 million, evoking images of chaos.

One does not qualify for funding, whether for academic research, medical development or contingency studies, by postulating about best-case scenarios. The strategy is to show up front how bad things could get, and to scare your targeted benefactors into having you study the problem and manufacture solutions.

This hardly means that these people are evil, greedy or irresponsible (although, in the case of Y2K or when a health threat shuts down agricultural trade for years, one really tends to wonder). It simply means that fear is an effective way to spark interest and action.

Current medical technology lacks the ability to cure, or even reliably vaccinate against, highly mutable viral infections; the best available medicines can only treat symptoms, like Roche's Tamiflu, which is becoming as scarce as the oftentimes legendary red mercury, or slow a virus' reproduction rate. Is more research needed? Certainly. But are we on the brink of a cataclysmic outbreak? Certainly not.

A bird flu pandemic among the human population is broadly in the same category as a meteor strike. Of course it will happen one day; and when it does, watch out! But there is no - absolutely no - particular reason to fear a global flu pandemic this flu season.

This does not mean the laws of nature have changed; it simply means there is no way to predict when an animal virus will break into the human population in any particular year -- or even if it will at all. Yes, H5N1 does show a propensity to mutate; and, yes, sooner or later another domesticated animal disease will cross over into the human population (most common human diseases have such origins and with our similar biology a transmutation to the pig population would be a worrying development). But there is no scientifically plausible reason to expect such a crossover to be imminent.

But if you are trying to find something to worry about, you should at least worry about the right thing.

A virus can mutate in any host, and pound for pound, the mutations that are of most interest to humanity are obviously those that occur within a human host. That means that each person who catches H5N1 due to a close encounter of the bird kind in effect becomes a sort of laboratory that could foster a mutation and that could have characteristics that would allow H5N1 to be communicable to other humans. Without such a specific mutation, bird flu is a problem for turkeys, but not for the non-turkey farmers among us.

But we are talking about a grand total of 115 people catching the bug over the course of the past three years. That does not exactly produce great odds for a virus, no matter how genetically mutable, to evolve successfully into a human-communicable strain. And bear in mind that the first-ever human case of H5N1 was not in 2003 but in 1997. There is nothing fundamentally new in this year's bird flu scare so please don’t let the scaremongers take away your Christmas turkey unless you are flying VA and they forget to cook it properly!
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Old 3rd Nov 2005, 21:33
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Mt Fargoo, you are probably correct in what you state about "bird flu" immunisation. Tamiflu, however is a treatment rather than a prevention
Thanks, looks like I got the wrong end of the stick again! So many conflicting stories in the press about this bird flu it's easy to get mixed up.

Anyway, I do admire RB for looking after his staff BUT not his publicity tactics.
The man is like Marmite - love him or hate him
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Old 4th Nov 2005, 22:12
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As has already been said, Tamiflu will not prevent you from contracting bird flu, and your company given flu jab will not prevent you from getting it either.

So why bother with the current flu jab or Tamiflu?

Well remember, for bird flu to mutate to a variant with human-human transmission, it needs to exchange DNA with a currently transmissable form of flu. So if you don't have flu, you cannot be the host in which this mutation occurs.

Now, if we can reduce the pool of people with flu (by having your company given jab), and getting those who have flu to recover more quickly (with drugs if necessary), the pool of possible persons carrying flu (and hence if exposed to bird flu could facilitate the necessary mutation) would be reduced. Hence the likelihood of the mutation occurring will be reduced/delayed.

Of course, any mutation may well weaken the virus making it less lethal ... but don't count your chickens on this being the case. It's always worth keeping the worst case scenario in mind whilst praying for something better.

So to put it succintly, get the jab and if you feel unwell, go home, see your GP and take any pills he gives you.

FWIW, I think RB has done the right thing by buying the drug, but I hope does not give the pills out like candy. If bird flu develops a resistance (to Tamiflu); then we could be facing a MRSA or VRSA type outbreak, only with nothing to help fight our corner, then we are in a bit of bother.
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Old 4th Nov 2005, 23:03
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Gosh, who needs a doctor on board when you have a pilot? These guys know everything!

Did anyone else find it ironic that avian flu first hit europe in Turkey? If that ain't proof that the CIA is behind it then I don't know what is.

Another great big damp squib; I'm SLF to NRT next week and whilst I still cannot do that chicken sushi thing its nothing to do with anything other than general disgust. The media has already forgotten about avian flu and RB is looking for (cheap) publicity.
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Old 5th Nov 2005, 12:22
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that is good. they should buy another 100000 tamiflu, so my roche shares go up...
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Old 5th Nov 2005, 15:11
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they should buy another 100000 tamiflu, so my roche shares go up...
They are up 40% already this year!!
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Old 5th Nov 2005, 15:52
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PAXboy

Your post re Y2K is spot on.

I also spent a long time and a lot of money fixing the very real Y2K problem, starting in 1995 as the company had very long lead times and contracts (we had are first real failure in 1996 in the procurement system).

Many people put in a huge amount of effort to fix the problem and like you I got no extra cash, I did get a lot of agro and minimal thanks. Unfortunately and for various reasons I then changed jobs and had to do it all over again for the same result.

The two medium size internation groups I did it for were already reasonably compliant but still spent well over a £ million between them. Had they not done so they would have been bust.

off IT Director
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Old 5th Nov 2005, 17:44
  #31 (permalink)  
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Somewhat off thread but not much ...
egbt Thank You! It is amusing how people continue the urban myth that Y2K was all some sort of scam. One reply is this: "Getting international banks to spend money is not easy. They only spent the money because they knew it was vital."

I am sure that some folks did make extra money but, mostly, the funds were allocated from other areas of IT spending. People were diverted from doing other projects to fix this. I resist the temptation to relate stories of the real Y2K failures that got swept hastily under the carpet.

On Thread: There may not be a pandemic in 2006 but, at some stage, there will be one. Prepare now and amend your plans as more information becomes available. By the way, I also spent 20 years involved with disaster recovery and have seen the damage done to companies by fire and bombs (at first hand) even when their own premises were only indirectly affected.

But as I say, no 'gold stars' for preventing something from happening. Just ask the people in your maintenance department if they feel loved and appreciated every time an a/c goes through to the next check with no problems?!
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Old 6th Nov 2005, 19:29
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[QUOTE]My understanding is that Tamiflu will not stop you getting bird fluQUOTE]

Well perhaps... It CAN stop you getting regular flu (implying it might also stop you getting bird flu) but you have to take it all the time flu is "in your area". For the general public they say that this is normally 6 weeks. It would be longer if you travel.

So 10,000 doses is enough to protect only about 200 people if they stay put.

Bird flu appears to be becoming resistant to Tamiflu in countries where Tamiflu is widely used to treat regular flu.
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Old 7th Nov 2005, 10:42
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Hi all,

I received this sometime back and have absolutely no idea whether it makes medical sense. See below:



+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Article DELETED,as it does not obviously make medical sense.


Sorry folks.


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Last edited by aviator_38; 13th Nov 2005 at 12:21.
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Old 9th Nov 2005, 04:37
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So now the natural health companys are getting on board the pandemic aswell?

Take Blackmores vitamin c as a prevention for bird fly, only $99 per bottle....
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Old 9th Nov 2005, 16:55
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http://www.hoptechno.com/bookcoldsflu.htm

No conclusive data has shown that large doses of vitamin C prevent colds; they may reduce the severity or duration of symptoms, but there is no definitive evidence. And the jury is still out on zinc. "There are about an equal number of studies that say zinc helps as there are studies that say it doesn't," Lambert says.
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Old 10th Nov 2005, 12:44
  #36 (permalink)  
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>>So now the natural health companys are getting on board the pandemic aswell?

Yep, this 'Natural Solutions Foundation' seems to be the usual snake oil seller. It's a husband and wife team with a web page promoting wacko homeopathic, naturopathic and holistic 'medicine' along with a political conspiracy theory agenda:

http://www.healthfreedomusa.org/abou...epth/who.shtml

Not sure I would trust their advice on bird flu <g>...
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Old 10th Nov 2005, 17:44
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Hi guys,

Just a simple SLF who's been browsing this site for a while, but motivated ito registering due to the absolute nonsense posted about Vitamin C, by Rima E Laibow.

There are so may problems with his methodology/treatment its hard to know where to start, but seeing this is an aviation board I'll try and keep it simple and too the point...

1) H5N1 does not kill by causing scurvy, scurvy requires weeks of Vitamin C deprivation, not days, rather it kills by damaging the lungs and other organs.

2) Vitamin C is rarely detremental when dealing with flu, but it hasn't been shown to help you recover from flu either. However, the large doses that he sugesting, 7 grams and upwards until your body can take no more, is dangerous being over 11000% of the recommended daily amount yes thats 116 times over. Just don't do it!

3) Do not got to a "Natural" doctor and get 100g to 200g inject intravenously, it may kill you!

4) Do get a flu jab or the nasal spray FluMist, neither will give you encephalitus and it will prevent you from getting the standard human flu strain that is doing teh rounds this winter, which as pilots you're more than likely to be exposed to. Additionally it may just prime the immune system a small amount against whatever H5N1 may mutate into.

5) If they do produce a vaccine to H5N1 and you are lucky enough to be offered it, take it, do not pass go, do not delay, there will be great shortages of it so make the most of your chance.

6) Should you start to suffer symptons during a bird flu outbreak DO take Tamiflu or ideally Relenza (there is some evidence showing that H5N1 may have some resistence to Tamiflu). However, take whichever is available and on offer to you, as its likely these drugs will also be in short supply!

Ultimately though the only really practical steps you can take for you and your family should an human outbreak occur is to lay your hands on Tamiflu or Relenza and to avoid contact with infected people.

Personally should an outbreak occur, I will not be travelling by air, bus, train or tube. I will also forgo any situations where I will be crowded by other people, busy pubs, shops and large offices. I do not have children, but if I did would consider taking them out of school!

Should you have to mix with crowds, a closely fitted face mask will help a little, as the virus is spread by droplets and it will prevent you infecting other people. But far more important is good handwashing as you're more likely to pass it on by touching an infected surface (door handles typically) and then touch your face (mouth/nose/eyes), so be aware.

Cheers guys
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Old 12th Nov 2005, 19:34
  #38 (permalink)  
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I had thought that the "vitamin healing" nonsense was best ignored, as being unlikely to convince even the most gullable.

One nasty thing about many of the H5N1 human fatalities (and many of the 1918 casualties) is that previously they were notably healthy individuals - rather than the elderly and infirm.
This was becuase many of the deaths resulted from what is now known as a "cytokine storm" where the immune response is SO strong against this novel intruder, that it essentially fills the lungs with froth.
Its nothing whatsoever to do with scurvy.
In this situation, deliberately increasing the body's self-defense reaction is completely counter-productive. And that is quite apart from whether these products actually achieve their intended aims.

And "aviator_38" when you happen to get ANY email that says "Pass this information to everyone you know" - Please don't! . That single phrase should set off *everyone's* BS detector.
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Old 15th Nov 2005, 10:54
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According to the Japanese Health Ministry it appears that Tamiflu can produce hallucinations and other dramatic shifts in behaviour leading to depression.

The British Nationa Formulary has recorded side effects from Tamiflu to include nausea, vomiting, headache, fatigue and insomnia.

Is this a suitable drug for professional aircrew to use ad hoc?

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Old 15th Nov 2005, 11:17
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As an addition to the 'Y2K scam' posts:
In 99/00 I was contracting for a High St bank, supporting one of their international payment systems. Despite dozens of people working for 3 years prior to the Millenium, there were 13 major problems on this system following the rollover. Four of these were serious enough that you would not have been able to make a deposit/withdrawal had you had an account with this bank, the others would have caused internal problems with system reconciliation etc. Due to the fact that there were four non-business days following 31/12/99, all of these problems got fixed without customers ever being aware. This was one system (out of around 75) for one bank, in one country.

And why didn't you make any extra money Paxboy? I made shedloads.

And on another point, number of British people killed by 'flu last year? 22,000.
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