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Major pilot shortage.......apparently !!!

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Old 1st May 2003, 20:03
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Major pilot shortage.......apparently !!!

I was handed an article published by the Express recently which was advertising the CTC Mcalpine scheme. This is all well and good but I think the wording could have been much better in parts.

I have searched for the article on the net without success but basically it was claiming that there will be a major shortage of pilots in the near future due to retirements and ex RAF crews not converting to commercial.

I know it's an advert so they will say anything but comments like this are so annoying. You only have to look on here to see that there's a queue of fATPL and experienced guys looking for work, never mind the wannabes.

The article made it all sound so easy to do. Just pay £165 ish for the selection process and away you go, 2 years and qualified with no outlay. Get real !!! makes my blood boil reading stuff like this. No doubt they will be swamped with offers.

The CTC scheme is great I am sure, but painting such a distorted picture of the industry doesn't help anyone, least of all those who are already making (have made) the effort to succeed with little to show for it so far.
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Old 1st May 2003, 20:43
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Most of the growth projections have, at their root, predictions for the growth in air travel from Airbus and Boeing, hardly neutral observers!

The truth is no-one really knows which way the market will go. The general feeling is that growth has been held back for the last two years by the uncertainty following 9/11 and the impending war in Iraq. A economic downturn could stifle growth, an upturn now will encourage it. The UK market has been unusual in that it has been sustained by the growth in low cost carriers, and, while this may have peaked in the UK it still has a long way to go in Europe.
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Old 2nd May 2003, 05:25
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I’ve got the article here.

The bit you refer to is:

“Many [commercial pilots] are due to retire and fewer ex-military pilots are retraining for commercial work, with the result that the industry faces a shortage of skilled pilots in the near future”

The article is in the careers section of the Daily Express. It is not an advert, although it is positive about the easyJet sponsorship scheme. I doubt that they would actually welcome many more applicants, as I they seem to be over-subscribed and the numbers of places are limited.

I guess you need to read the quote carefully, and note the words “skilled pilots” and “near future”. It does not claim there is a present shortage, nor does it claim there will be a shortage of pilots. If the quotes came from CTC (and it doesn’t actually say where the claim originated), they are probably worth heeding as they have no incentive to stoke the demand.

Ho, there’s a debate. I pick up the consensus here that:

• There has never been a shortage of licence holders
• But every now and then, there is a shortage of experienced commercial pilots
• So newly qualified fATPLs have an easy step into their first ‘proper job’
• But the rest of the time we struggle to bridge the gap between licence issue and credibility as a professional

Personally, I think the CTC McAlpine sponsorship scheme is ace – for the few who can get onto it. It sorts out the 2 great problems that face the wannabe – inability to pay for training and need for employment once the training is over.

For the majority, either ineligible to apply or not successful in the selection, it’s the same old story: spend money we cannot afford and then fight over jobs not within our reach.
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Old 2nd May 2003, 19:50
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Pilot shortage - I wish!

I am not by nature a pessimist but I think the aviation business is in a more precarious predicament than it has been for a long while.

I may be unpopular for saying this but I feel that a number of agencies are jumping on the band-wagon and taking advantage of the current situation. I am not against the idea of "marketing" but do we really need all these courses to teach us how to "pass" an interview? Is there not an element of manipulation and competitiveness involved? Surely, in the selection/interview process, we should be honest - perhaps a touch of "what you see is what you get!".

The aviation industry has always been cyclical and business is always about predicating the future but my feeling is that our future is very uncertain. Things could do either way and it's best not to put all your eggs in one basket.

My comments are not intended to put anyone off wanting to be a professional pilot - a job which I have done for over 25 years, much of it quite enjoyable. However, I become more and more concerned with what I hear and see. Pilots working very long hours with arguably unreasonable contracts and punitive type bonds. There seems to be very little long term planning in many companies with very tight margins and we only need a small "hiccup" for things to go awry.

Many will say that this is just the way things are and to an extent I have to agree but I cannot help feeling that we are due for a big shake-up in the industry very soon.

I speak as a pilot with over 14,000 hours with 9,000 on jet transport aircraft who has been unemployed for over two years. I am now giving serious consideration to taking a job in a different industry which although would not be as lucrative as avaition certainly has better conditions of service and a greater element of security.
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Old 2nd May 2003, 20:28
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Tony Blair,
• There has never been a shortage of licence holders
Your dead right, but how many people have you come across that were doing there commercial licence and you thought to yourself "I wonder why they bother" I have met some people who are not suitable. This is not elitist or arrogant, I'm talking about people with Major anti authority attitudes, problems with time keeping etc etc. I often wonder out of the licence holders out their who are actually employable. Who knows I could be one of them?

Then there are always the horror stories like fireflybob, who surely has more than enough hours. It is a very cyclical business and I hope people aren't attracted by ads promising the sun moon and stars. You will get there eventually you have to have dogged determination and present the right image.
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Old 2nd May 2003, 20:42
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Oh not that pilot shortage thing again
2,500 AA pilots to be laid off, added to all the others in the EU
What a joke
They want your money
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Old 4th May 2003, 05:25
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I think the gist of what everyone is saying who has any experience in this industry, but who has no product to sell, is that there is no current pilot shortage and there will not be for some years to come (who knows how many?)

There is movement in the pilot market, but the airlines can and will be extremely selective due to the old supply and demand cycle. I feel for fireflybob who I am sure would not have expected to be confronted with this situation having completed so many years in this industry. The saddest part of all is that I suspect he is over qualified for the few jobs that do arise, especially permanent positions where airlines will naturally recruit F/Os onto the bottom of their seniority list and promote from within as required.

The competition is tough for the few places that do arise and I must admit I disagree with the notion that people should not take advice on how to best sell themselves at interview. 'What you see is what you get' sounds like a nice notion but in many, many careers the competition is now so stiff that just being a good guy is not enough. You have to do your homework, you must prepare, you must understand the culture of the airline you are trying to get into, you must prepare yourself to give the best answers to the interviewers questions, your whole performance must be polished. The selection for some airlines is so competitive you will undergo two days and upwards of 6 different selection tests; if you don't perform to the best of your ability you are consigning yourself to the 'thankyou but you have been unsuccessful on this occassion' pile. You owe it to yourself to ensure your best performance if you secure an interview.

HR depts drive many airlines recruitment these days and the friendly chat across the desk with the Chief Pilot to discover if you are a 'good bloke' is (rightly or wrongly) disappearing. They set the hurdles up for candidates to jump over and I have spoken to several senior captains in several airlines who all say that they are glad that they are not having to go through these selection tests once they hear the sort of things that prospective employees are being asked to do. You would always prepare your suit for an interview by getting it dry cleaned/ pressed by a 'professional' so why would you cut corners on your own preparation? I'm not saying everyone should undergo a interview prep course, it's horses for courses, but I bet all those pilots who didn't and then failed to get a job offer from their last (and maybe only) selection procedure may well have improved their performance if they had. Many of these pilots would have made excellent employees for the airline in question, they just didn't jump all the hurdles well enough during their one chance.

All the time supply outstrips demand standards for job offer will remain extremely high. Interview prep courses delve into the individual's experience and formulate an action plan to give the candidate the best chance of success, it's not about making up answers and learning things parrot fashion.

My final point goes back to 'shortage'. Yes, lots of schools etc have been saying this for a long time, and yes there are lots of retirements in many of the established carriers over the coming years. At present, supply will cover these and will do for some time. I think the biggest indicator of a future shortage is the government's plan for airport expansion. Long term aviation industry growth is expected and I believe will happen, several well covered factors are limiting this growth at present but at some stage our economy will bounce back, industry fears will subside and eventually passenger numbers will increase significantly. Planning for runway development is starting to take shape and at some time will be implemented. Just don't hold your breath for any kind of shortage in the near term....................

Good luck Wannabes.

PP
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Old 4th May 2003, 08:03
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Pilot Pete, I agree with much of what you have so eruditely stated.

I am not suggesting that potential candidates should not do their homework and, if necessary, attend a course on selection/interview techniques but I do feel that this aspect is sometimes overplayed. If I am going into the interview process pretending to be someone who I am not them I am not going to appear to be "congruent".

>Many of these pilots would have made excellent employees for the airline in question, they just didn't jump all the hurdles well enough during their one chance.<

Does this comment not prove that the current selection procedures are mssing some very good candidates for the job?
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Old 4th May 2003, 19:39
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Fellow wannabees our time will come. And it will come when the industry turns the corner and the majors start to expand again, not just in the UK and Europe.

There are large numbers of people from countries like Belgium, Switzerland and Eastern Europe flying for Ryanair at the moment. When Swiss and whatever comes out of Sabena and the market in Eastern Europe begins to grow these people will return to home. We here rumours about discontent at Easyjet so you can expect when the likes of BA, Virgin and BMi start to recruit again there will be people leaving there as well.

And thats when our chance will come and we must be ready to grab it with both hands.
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Old 5th May 2003, 03:29
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Firefly,

Yes I agree, but they are also getting plenty of excellent candidates. There is no way I would advocate someone trying to be something they are not, because these 'psycometrists' (if there is such a thing; my generic term for shrinks and testers of psychometrics) are a pretty clever bunch at what they do and your results to their tests will show up your inconsistencies and you will not be offered a job.

What I am try to put across, perhaps very badly, is that the competition is extremely fierce, especially during these hard times and the individual has to give themselves the best chance of success, shining and showing their full potential to the prospective employer. Again, everything said at interview has to be the truth, but a few pointers on what to expect and a thorough understanding of the selection process is vital preparation that every 'good' candidate cannot afford to be without. The biggest problem (rightly or wrongly) is that if candidate 'x' is perfect for the job but does not sell him/herself at interview, and equally competent candidate 'y' does then no prizes for guessing who gets the job offer. My argument is that if candidate 'x' doesn't get the full lowdown and prepare correctly then candidate 'x' is not doing him/herself justice, which I think is unfortunate and avoidable but plays into the hands of candidate 'y'.

So I am sure there are plenty of candidates out there who can prepare themselves thoroughly for any interview, using experience and contacts to gather together their own 'portfolio' and interview/ selection strategy. Fine, but for those with fewer contacts/ less experience or even those with lots of experience but who have been out of the recruitment 'loop' for some time, the interview coaching (an unfortunate term IMHO) course can help fill that gap and take out some of the uncertainty, thus realising the full potential of the candidate and minimising potential weaknesses.

Just like many areas of aviation, we work to the rules presented to us, often when we know another (possibly better) way of doing it. The selection process is the same. The employer sets the rules (using HR/ Personnel/ Phsycologists/ Psychometrics/ Group exercises/ Sim rides/ Literacy tests/ Numerical tests/ Critical reasoning tests/ Profiling etc etc). We can only work with what we are presented with and I feel interview prep for a selection process that uses the majority of these tests is almost becoming essential. I have been through several now in the last few years and am becoming a bit of an 'old hand', or 'airline slag' as one pilot put it so complimentarily!

My comment about the hurdles may have been a little miss leading. The above tests I view as the hurdles and you need to perform well in all of them if these are the criterion set by the employer. You will not be able to 'bullsh*t your way through all of them - if your maths is crap it will show up. If your English is crap that will show up. If your spatial awareness is crap, that will show up and so on. The only thing you could possibly bluff your way through is the interview and that is why IMHO the interview has been augmented by all these other tests. The employer is looking for consistency throughout which backs up other results and the good ones leave the interview until last and pick up, sometimes very subtly on your weaknesses and give you a chance to acknowledge/ explain/ and demonstrate where you have handled a similar situation better.

So, with little or no experience of interview techniques it is very easy for a great candidate to fail abysmally. Now that sounds like a contradiction - a great candidate failing abysmally - but you get what I mean?

I wish you all well, especially you fireflybob.

PP
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Old 5th May 2003, 04:06
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my english is crap, my mathematic suck, I am arrogant,...I have a negative attitude, and I got a job.So, what are you talking about. I have seen lot of assholes flying jets. go in a cockpit and go see the arrogant pilots .If you fail an interview, jump to the next interview, at the end, somebody is going to hire you to fly their ****ty planes.it has always been like that and it is not going to change to make pilots happy. you accept this situation or you leave.your question about if you have to lie to an interview: Yes, do whatever you think to get the job because the guy sitting next to you during the interview will lie.
just be a smart asshole, kick the ass of everybody and you will succeed!good luck to you!
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Old 6th May 2003, 04:27
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I don't understand

RTO

What you say would be logical; if CTC were not over-subscribed for the places on their scheme, which are limited by airline demand. However, one assumes that the quote that started off this interesting thread (the best of the many previous on this topic that I've read) came from them.

Admittedly there are a few assumptive links here, but...

If the quote came from them rather than being sourced elsewhere by the journalist who wrote the article, and bearing in mind that they are not in a position where they have to attract more applicants to their scheme, and bearing in mind their (unique?) access to the recruiting plans for a wide range of the UK's major airlines, why would they make such a comment unless someone's crystal ball gazing indicates the sine wave may be heading downwards.

As has been said many times, a 'pilot shortage' does not mean ‘not enough pilots’; it means more easily achieved access to first time jobs, as the hurdles lower.
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Old 6th May 2003, 05:09
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lovefly

I was specifically talking about the UK market. What you say is true. There are plenty of 'less desirables' flying for UK operators also. The point is times are a changing; the airlines are starting to use all these selection tests to filter out the character sets you mention that don't fit their 'model'.

My first airline job was after an interview/ cosy chat with the fleet manager, a sim ride and a medical. That was early in 2001. My latest job involved maths and English tests, 2 group exercises, a psychometric profile, a sim ride and 2 interviews - one with a psychologist and one with a pilot manager and HR member.

I am not trying to preach to anyone, so good luck to all those
assholes
that you know who are flying jets. My only intention is to point out to the Wannabes that here in the UK the market being as it is has lead to an increase in these selection tests at many of our airlines. As for lying and bullsh*ting your way through an interview, well, as I have already said, you may be able to do that in an interview, but the rest of the tests have been introduced to find these people out. These tests are very good and show up inconsistencies. As I have also mentioned, many more senior colleagues of mine have expressed their relief at never having to have gone through the current selection process at my current employer.

Take it any way you want Wannabes, but do enter the process with your eyes fully open. You may only get one chance so don't blow it.

PP
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Old 6th May 2003, 05:10
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RTO,

Nobody wants type rated commanders with 1000's of hours, just ask fireflybob.

What they want is type rated FOs with some hours on type, usually between 800 to 1500. This is what the CTC scheme does for people.

As for them bleeding, they will type rate upto 200 pilots for easyjet this year, along with 20 or so guys out in new zealand, and roumor has it that they are running 2 or 3 ground school courses for TCUK. Far from bleeding I think.

PP, the reason you had to do all that was because word got round that your a bit dodgy!!! I know because I told them!!!!!
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Old 6th May 2003, 16:10
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The reason for this is because CTC take between 1 in 10 and 1 in 20 pilots they interview, so thet need to interview 100+ pilots just to fill one training course. This takes no account of the number of pilots that are rejected at application, which could be as high as 60%. So now you can see the need to advertise.
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Old 6th May 2003, 23:22
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and perhaps the need for interview preparation courses?

Anyhow Jonty, it was a pleasure knowing you........

PP

ps, you still puddle jumping in that 75?
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Old 7th May 2003, 02:41
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Jonty you said :
Nobody wants type rated commanders with 1000's of hours, just ask fireflybob.

This really is nonsense ! A case of what you want to believe perhaps ?

I know a number of type rated commanders who have been recently employed by Emirates with many thousands of hours in command.

Fireflybob wasn't exactly making the point you suggest. Although he is a highly experienced commander he didn't say he had been unemployed from aviation by way of example of the current employment situation.

Most experienced commanders are flying with carriers in whom they have a vested interest. They may be locked into a seniority or pension position that makes a move difficult and ultimately undesirable.

There are not many high hour commanders of reasonable age actively looking for jobs as First Officers, but I am sure most airlines would give serious consideration to the CV of any one applying to them.
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Old 7th May 2003, 17:37
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bb,

Ok rapidly expanding airlines will take high hours commanders directly into the left hand seat, BUT these are few and far between. I was replying RTOs asertion that most airlines want these people, the vast majority of airlines donot want direct entry comanders they would much prefer to promote from within. It keeps their current pilot workforce happy and its alot cheaper, you know what youve got if he's been flying with you for 5 years.
The point about fireflybob is that he is probably unwilling to accept a job in the right hand seat and even if he was most Chief Pilots know that after a couple of months he will be knocking on their door asking when his command course is (Iam making a generalisation based on what he has posted, his actual position may well be very differant). With time to comand in most large UK airlines running at between 5 to 10 years this is not what pilot managers want.
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Old 7th May 2003, 22:31
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>The point about fireflybob is that he is probably unwilling to accept a job in the right hand seat <

Jonty, not true - I would be happy to accept a RHS job!
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Old 7th May 2003, 22:50
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Pilot Pete do you have any recommendations for airline interview preparation?????????
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