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Is the hiring boom over?

Old 14th Mar 2020, 09:22
  #61 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.eurocockpit.be/news/change-gonna-come


Recommended reading by all.

The airli​​​​​ne industry that emerges from this crisis, will not look like the one that went into it. A change is indeed gonna come. Grit your teeth and hang onto your hats.

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Old 14th Mar 2020, 22:20
  #62 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Hawker400 View Post
Sobering article. I’m sticking to my FI work. Forget chasing airlines.


Re airliners being clean: yes, but it’s the airport. The lifts. Escalator handrails. Queues. Cafes. Cashpoints. Taxis. Trains. People everywhere, from everywhere. The passenger behind sneezing over the back of your head.

And then there’s Climate Change...

The UK market hiring boom is well and truly dead for what...5 years? 10 years? How long will it take for those made redundant & lucky enough to be picked up by say, Loganair to work through their airline careers?

Last edited by covec; 14th Mar 2020 at 22:32.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 09:43
  #63 (permalink)  
 
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Even Ryanair have frozen recruitment now. Airlines are closing up shop and bracing themselves for a torrid 2020. Things should hopefully improve by 2021 but these things tend to come back slowly.

If you haven't committed any or much money to flight training yet, don't! Pull out of training if you must. Save your money, find a job, delay your training until we have a better idea of what aviation will look like in the medium-term.

Walk away, and look back when the dust has settled.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 10:42
  #64 (permalink)  
 
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I think that I'll still get into training in May... I'm 30 can't afford to wait longer... I hope that by 2022 things will be better, if not, I'll stay in my current job I guess until time is right... worst thing is that I'll have to keep my training current... other than that I still think aviation is going up...

When all of you guys are recommending to bot get into training do you speak of U.K. alone or do you really have insight for all Europe...
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 11:51
  #65 (permalink)  
 
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Sorath, I guess it's referencing most of Europe really. The industry is actually very small comparative to the geography of Europe. Big players of newly qualified pilots and those which hold most of the market are typically easyJet and Ryanair plus a few other outfits like Wizz, EuroWings etc that tend to take less. If the coronavirus and border lockdowns continue then the industry will be a very different place for a fair few years. Airlines with deep pockets will ride the wave, but others will fail. Norwegian is perhaps one of the weaker links based on recent press. Who is to join them? We don't know. If you continue down your training journey I wish you the best of luck with it. It's a hard but rewarding process and I'd like to hope for both your own sake and my own that the industry is still a float in a healthy fashion by the year 2020 as you say.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 13:44
  #66 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by gbotley View Post
Sorath, I guess it's referencing most of Europe really. The industry is actually very small comparative to the geography of Europe. Big players of newly qualified pilots and those which hold most of the market are typically easyJet and Ryanair plus a few other outfits like Wizz, EuroWings etc that tend to take less. If the coronavirus and border lockdowns continue then the industry will be a very different place for a fair few years. Airlines with deep pockets will ride the wave, but others will fail. Norwegian is perhaps one of the weaker links based on recent press. Who is to join them? We don't know. If you continue down your training journey I wish you the best of luck with it. It's a hard but rewarding process and I'd like to hope for both your own sake and my own that the industry is still a float in a healthy fashion by the year 2020 as you say.
Thanks for your insights. I truly hope things get better. I'm so sorry for those newly graduated pilots right now... must be a devastating blow... specially for those that have no backup profession.
Hang in there guys.
Can't imagine what it's like to finish with so much hope and suddenly... this crap going on.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 15:57
  #67 (permalink)  
 
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I don't think it's a bad suggestion to continue or even start your flight training this year. Provided you do it modular and do it part time, you won't be ready for another 14-18 months anyway. The trick is to take your time with just enough exposure to keep you in touch with aviation whilst not sacrificing your other job. If you're ready by end of 2021 / early 2022 but there's still no pilot jobs, so what, go back to your old jobs. Then save your cash, ready to hand over for type ratings and the like. When hiring booms come, they can also be gone in a matter of months or even weeks. The important bit is to be ready. A 2 year old bare bones fATPL is just as good as a 3 month old one. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 16:04
  #68 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Smooth Airperator View Post
A 2 year old bare bones fATPL is just as good as a 3 month old one. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
Sure , but you'll need to keep it fresh right? I mean you'll be tested in your interviews after all ... so as far as practicality goes... the fresher you have it the better.... and if your "waiting job" let's call it, has nothing to do with commercial aviation... It's going to be harder.
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Old 17th Mar 2020, 05:37
  #69 (permalink)  
 
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I went through two major downturns before finally landing a pilot job. I had to keep my ATPL fresh for 4 years and some I know even longer. No major drama. Many guys being made redundant today will have to do the same. This desire to be and concept of being "fresh" is cute but nothing more. Most people end up waiting years.
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Old 17th Mar 2020, 20:21
  #70 (permalink)  
 
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It took me 2 years to get a foot in the door at a major airline as well, and I was EXTREMELY lucky. Recruiters don't have trouble finding candidates, there are dozens of applicants for every job. The first ones out are the ones with poor ATPL results and skills test failures. The second ones out are those that have been out of training for a while (a year+) and stop flying. Recruiters are even open about this, it's not a secret at all.

**** even flybe, known for hiring low hour cadets and paying a TR for them, had an application checkbox for 'I have flown 50hrs + in the last 12 months' and for 'glass cockpit IFR'

I agree that it's unfair and ridiculous and unscientific. But it's reality.
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Old 17th Mar 2020, 20:49
  #71 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SeventhHeaven View Post
It took me 2 years to get a foot in the door at a major airline as well, and I was EXTREMELY lucky. Recruiters don't have trouble finding candidates, there are dozens of applicants for every job. The first ones out are the ones with poor ATPL results and skills test failures. The second ones out are those that have been out of training for a while (a year+) and stop flying. Recruiters are even open about this, it's not a secret at all.

**** even flybe, known for hiring low hour cadets and paying a TR for them, had an application checkbox for 'I have flown 50hrs + in the last 12 months' and for 'glass cockpit IFR'

I agree that it's unfair and ridiculous and unscientific. But it's reality.
If you don't mind the question, did you work as a pilot for those 2 years until you landed the job?
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Old 23rd Mar 2020, 08:26
  #72 (permalink)  
 
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it's simply over ......The industry stated to slow down last year , there was a boom in the industry because of lack of experienced pilots and companies had money to pour in 2016 ......Now we lost both . I cannot understand people who are saying there will be a big demand in the near future . This is not true at all . I wish everyone good luck .
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Old 23rd Mar 2020, 08:45
  #73 (permalink)  
 
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British scientists are now saying that forced suppression and social distancing will be required until a vaccine is developed. That could be 12 to 18 months away.

This will spell the end for the airlines (except cargo) for the next 1.5 years.

Then I expect a slow, slow recovery. It will not be V shaped. People are going to be scarred by this. People will be afraid to travel for a long time.
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Old 23rd Mar 2020, 08:54
  #74 (permalink)  
 
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Its funny how I have a new found passion for aviation. Being an airline pilot again is no longer important to me. I have been doing it but to be honest a good cargo job or medical evac pilot job and many others would be just as rewarding with none of the airline heartache.

I for one can honestly say airlines are now probably behind me and just not worth pursuing anymore. Those who still want it, good luck to you and I hope it works out...
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Old 23rd Mar 2020, 09:38
  #75 (permalink)  
 
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British scientists are now saying that forced suppression and social distancing will be required until a vaccine is developed. That could be 12 to 18 months away.
It will not go on for 12-18 months. That may well solve the virus issue, but it would be at the cost of destroying the entire social order. There would be rioting, looting etc. At some point the scale will tip in favour of just allowing people to become infected and die.

With that said, airline flying is in my opinion terminally damaged. There may be room for a very limited airline sector, but I'd be surprised if it was any larger than a quarter to a third of its current size. That means mass layoffs and many experienced pilots who will never find another flying job and will be seeing out their working lives on minimum wage at best as they have zero transferrable skills, and in many (most?) cases no other relevant qualifications. I would not expect to see any pilots hired within the UK market until 2030 at the absolute earliest.
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Old 23rd Mar 2020, 10:29
  #76 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by flocci_non_faccio View Post
It will not go on for 12-18 months. That may well solve the virus issue, but it would be at the cost of destroying the entire social order. There would be rioting, looting etc. At some point the scale will tip in favour of just allowing people to become infected and die.

With that said, airline flying is in my opinion terminally damaged. There may be room for a very limited airline sector, but I'd be surprised if it was any larger than a quarter to a third of its current size. That means mass layoffs and many experienced pilots who will never find another flying job and will be seeing out their working lives on minimum wage at best as they have zero transferrable skills, and in many (most?) cases no other relevant qualifications. I would not expect to see any pilots hired within the UK market until 2030 at the absolute earliest.
Now whilst I agree with most of your comments, but I certainly donít think its going to be that bad.

This whole current scenario is very much vaccine dependent.

If the people can work their magic soon enough, this could be the sharp end of it, and this means the reintegration will starts asap!

lets hope for that
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Old 23rd Mar 2020, 10:46
  #77 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Citationcj2 View Post
Now whilst I agree with most of your comments, but I certainly don’t think its going to be that bad.

This whole current scenario is very much vaccine dependent.

If the people can work their magic soon enough, this could be the sharp end of it, and this means the reintegration will starts asap!

lets hope for that

The vaccine is 12 to 18 months away based on every expert I've read.

After that, it's going to be a slowwwww recovery for the travel and tourism sector.

My money is on 4 to 5 years before aviation is back at pre-virus levels...

For those of you who think this is just an ordinary flu, so who cares.... read the stories of Spanish and Italian doctors who are basically taking away ventilators from people over age 65 and instead giving them pain killers to ease their death.

Wait for that to start hitting close to home... when it starts hitting the English speaking world....
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Old 23rd Mar 2020, 11:42
  #78 (permalink)  
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Hiring boom?

Well, the current hiring boom at the moment I hear are funeral homes and crematoriums

aviation is dead

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Old 26th Mar 2020, 02:07
  #79 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Smooth Airperator View Post
I don't think it's a bad suggestion to continue or even start your flight training this year. Provided you do it modular and do it part time, you won't be ready for another 14-18 months anyway. The trick is to take your time with just enough exposure to keep you in touch with aviation whilst not sacrificing your other job. If you're ready by end of 2021 / early 2022 but there's still no pilot jobs, so what, go back to your old jobs. Then save your cash, ready to hand over for type ratings and the like. When hiring booms come, they can also be gone in a matter of months or even weeks. The important bit is to be ready. A 2 year old bare bones fATPL is just as good as a 3 month old one. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
Not sure what to believe, half are saying you'd have to be an idiot to keep training, and the job is total shit if you ever get hired (which will happen next in 2030???) The other half are saying you're lucky and there will be less competition when you finish...
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Old 26th Mar 2020, 08:52
  #80 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by flocci_non_faccio View Post
It will not go on for 12-18 months. That may well solve the virus issue, but it would be at the cost of destroying the entire social order. There would be rioting, looting etc. At some point the scale will tip in favour of just allowing people to become infected and die.

With that said, airline flying is in my opinion terminally damaged. There may be room for a very limited airline sector, but I'd be surprised if it was any larger than a quarter to a third of its current size. That means mass layoffs and many experienced pilots who will never find another flying job and will be seeing out their working lives on minimum wage at best as they have zero transferrable skills, and in many (most?) cases no other relevant qualifications. I would not expect to see any pilots hired within the UK market until 2030 at the absolute earliest.
What absolute hogwash. The trouble is people on here may actually believe you 😩
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