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Is the hiring boom over?

Old 6th Mar 2020, 13:08
  #41 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Barcelona
Posts: 27
Originally Posted by Sorath View Post
I absolutely have to get a loan... 70K to be exact (not accounting for TR expenses)... but It's all or nothing. I don't want to die without saying I tried... There is always time to NOT pay the bank, in the case of a worst worst case scenario.

why ? why ? why ?

Why dont you work a couple of years and save the money you need ? why put yourself in debt that will hunt you the rest of your life ??

just mad !
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Old 6th Mar 2020, 13:22
  #42 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: MADRID
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Originally Posted by Buenas View Post
why ? why ? why ?
Why dont you work a couple of years and save the money you need ? why put yourself in debt that will hunt you the rest of your life ??
just mad !
Less than 15K interests... 8 year loan, aprox 800-900 monthly, "the rest of my life" is a bit of an overstatement .... some people mortgage a house and 2 cars for well over 400k... I find that mad.... I guess I'm investing in my future. A future I want. Plus, I want to get started asap; turning 30 this year. Eventually if all goes right I'll earn more money than being and Engineer in Spain. Risk vs Reward seems OK to me, I guess someone with a bit of more financial apprehension could see it with other eyes.
The only problem I see really is that by the time I'm finished with flight school I don't land a job straight away... but I have my plan B financially speaking, so really it's just a matter of time.. That doesn't take away my that I will be incredibly annoyed with the fact that I'm not flying in an airline or elsewhere by the time I'm done training...it will, certainly, eat me up inside.

But overall, I will not deny that asking for a loan with this level of uncertainty does give me the chills.
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Old 7th Mar 2020, 08:03
  #43 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
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Originally Posted by Sorath View Post
Less than 15K interests... 8 year loan, aprox 800-900 monthly, "the rest of my life" is a bit of an overstatement .... some people mortgage a house and 2 cars for well over 400k... I find that mad.... I guess I'm investing in my future. A future I want. Plus, I want to get started asap; turning 30 this year. Eventually if all goes right I'll earn more money than being and Engineer in Spain. Risk vs Reward seems OK to me, I guess someone with a bit of more financial apprehension could see it with other eyes.
The only problem I see really is that by the time I'm finished with flight school I don't land a job straight away... but I have my plan B financially speaking, so really it's just a matter of time.. That doesn't take away my that I will be incredibly annoyed with the fact that I'm not flying in an airline or elsewhere by the time I'm done training...it will, certainly, eat me up inside.

But overall, I will not deny that asking for a loan with this level of uncertainty does give me the chills.
Did you also included a 30 k loan for your TR and maybe another 10k to keep your licences current? Or do you expect to enter a legacy with all paid from the start ?

I hope it works fine for you and wont look back at this post and think “i should had...”. While working as an engineer and paying 900€ per month. Which in Spain is nearly your whole monthly salary.

Buenas

ps: have you checked salaries at vueling and volotea when you looked at risk vs reward?

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Old 7th Mar 2020, 09:11
  #44 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
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Originally Posted by Buenas View Post
Did you also included a 30 k loan for your TR and maybe another 10k to keep your licences current? Or do you expect to enter a legacy with all paid from the start ?

I hope it works fine for you and wont look back at this post and think “i should had...”. While working as an engineer and paying 900€ per month. Which in Spain is nearly your whole monthly salary.

Buenas

ps: have you checked salaries at vueling and volotea when you looked at risk vs reward?
Evidently I do not plan to enter a Legacy carrier...
I will not take into account TR costs as I will try/hope to find an airline that bonds or partially pays your TR straight from flight school. There it always time to ask for more money later.
Yes I do have money saved to keep my licences current.

I believe you might be a bit mistaken with salaries In Spain... I earn well over 2k so, it might be tight but it's fine.

I have checked the salaries in vueling volotea and they are lower than your average low cost in Europe... but I'm not getting into this to get rich, just to be happy with my job.

Cheers, thanks for your concerns, I don't mind people being realistic (perhaps a little pessimistic). It's good to see all sides of things.

Hasta luego
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Old 7th Mar 2020, 12:11
  #45 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
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The music has well and truly stopped. Anybody thinking of training now is quite frankly certifiable unless money is no object and they don't need a job at the end of it.

There are going to be mass redundancies over the coming years; the consequence of a serious contraction in airline capacity within Europe. I would be surprised if there's any significant airline recruitment over the next five years or possibly longer. Anybody made redundant now, regardless of experience, will have to face up to the fact that there's a strong likelihood that they will never find another flying job.
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Old 7th Mar 2020, 20:05
  #46 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: UK
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Originally Posted by Sorath View Post
But overall, I will not deny that asking for a loan with this level of uncertainty does give me the chills.
And as it so should! -- It's a lot of money.

My advice to you is to look very closely at the expected salaries at airlines you want to end up at. Ideally, those that take low hour pilots. My own forecasts for finance were based on full time salary not in the slightest aware some airlines force RESERVE or part time as you progress in your career. The latter case representing a reasonable drop in salary over winter. Could you afford your loan repayments in that event?

All the best though!
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Old 8th Mar 2020, 08:40
  #47 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
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Originally Posted by gbotley View Post
And as it so should! -- It's a lot of money.

My advice to you is to look very closely at the expected salaries at airlines you want to end up at. Ideally, those that take low hour pilots. My own forecasts for finance were based on full time salary not in the slightest aware some airlines force RESERVE or part time as you progress in your career. The latter case representing a reasonable drop in salary over winter. Could you afford your loan repayments in that event?

All the best though!
I have heard/read about low hour pilots being put in reserve for low season... I guess that is the financial model some low costs have... I can certainly wait it out, I'm only living with "living expenses", I don't have a mortgage nor am I paying rent, guess I'm lucky my house is paid for. It would be insane to do this otherwise, the numbers just wouldn't add up.
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Old 11th Mar 2020, 00:35
  #48 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
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The answer is “Yes”.

Regrettably.
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 06:04
  #49 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
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Like an idiot i gave my life up and trained just after 2001. thinking the market would pick up. Got an FO job then in 2006. I spent the meantime as a flight instructor and I will say, not fulfilling.

This feels exactly the same situation developing as it was back in the days of no opportunities.

Please everyone , think before you really commit to this life as i had a torrid time trying to find work.

Flying aircraft is great but its not worth massive sacrifices.

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Old 12th Mar 2020, 07:11
  #50 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
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I worry this will not be a “V” shaped recovery at all and it will take a protracted time for confidence to return to aviation. There is already a huge surplus of pilots and with more airlines set to go under this will only get worse. You’d fail the sanity part of the Class 1 medical if you think now is a good time to start training. Walk away, do something else for the next couple of years, don’t make a massive financial mistake which you will possibly never recover from.
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Old 12th Mar 2020, 16:47
  #51 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
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For the time being, yes, the hiring boom is over. I would say that coming out of training now is the same as just after 9/11, or in 2009. In the UK alone, there are 600 ex flyBe pilots out of work. But, on the other hand I would say now could be a good time to start training, as in 2-3 years time we could be on the up again. Please note the words “could”. There are never any guarantees (look at what BA have just done, cancelling signed contracts...), and flight training is always an expensive gamble.

Much like the virus itself, my guess is that it will have devastating effects on the airlines already with serious health problems. It’s already happened with flyBe. Only the strongest airlines, with the healthiest balance sheets, cash reserves, and operational flexibility will survive. So sadly, yes, I do think that in the coming weeks there will be more airline bankruptcies, administrations, or liquidations. This will put even more pilots on the market.

But, we have to remain positive. As it stands, stronger airlines are confident that coronavirus is a short-term thing, hence the majority of which implementing “unpaid leave”, as opposed to redundancies. As a return to normality is expected once the virus has burned out, productivity is hoped to return to normal levels, making redundancies pointless. Providing this continues to happen, and employees are willing to take unpaid leave or go part time in order to alleviate the lack of income due current low numbers of bookings, as well as the implementation of cost cutting by the airlines, they will be able to keep heads above water and preserve jobs. This was highlighted brilliantly in a speech by the Southwest CEO.

If airlines take the hits, be pro-active, get through the next couple of months, and work on making their booking trends positive again, then there IS hope. There will be light at the end of the tunnel. It will be the end of the trough, and the very beginning of a long journey to a peak. Thankfully, most European airlines are doing this already, so I am confident this will not the end of commercial aviation, and come early Summer the bookings will be rising again. And when it gets past a certain level, recruitment will begin again.

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Old 13th Mar 2020, 08:33
  #52 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
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I would wait at least 6 months to a year to commit to any self funded training to see which way this is headed.
If this does turn out as the next 9/11 you do not want to be entering the market with a debt to pay in the next few years.
To jump in now would be nothing more than a blind gamble.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 08:58
  #53 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: UK
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It's incredibly optimistic to think that this is "the next 9/11". The impact on aviation is far, far worse than that, and it's only going to get much, much worse.

Without government intervention, it's hard to see how any airline in Europe is going to survive this.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 09:27
  #54 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
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Originally Posted by flocci_non_faccio View Post
It's incredibly optimistic to think that this is "the next 9/11". The impact on aviation is far, far worse than that, and it's only going to get much, much worse.

Without government intervention, it's hard to see how any airline in Europe is going to survive this.
Guys dont be overdramatic. We have to wait and watch out what happens in the next couple of months. The Max is also on its way and airlines will need pilots again. Of course we will see some airlines go bancrupt but thats not new for us and normal. All big players will survive this and in the worst case they will get help from the goverment. Aviation is still booming and pilots are still needed. In the last few weeks we had a dramatic overreaction or hysteria. Lets wait and look how its finaly went out. The Max desaster could help us low hour pilots. I am also a little bit scared by this situation but we are on a peak of hysteria and it has a reason why airlines think that everything could be back to normal in a couple of months. According to some news the number of new infected people in China is dropping and some vaccines are in blind trials.

Last edited by SkyTeam95; 13th Mar 2020 at 09:38.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 09:46
  #55 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Not the time to be saddling yourself (& family?) with large scale debt.

Save up. Wait. There are already a large number of qualified pilots out of work in the UK: Monarch. Thomas Cook. Flybe.
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Old 13th Mar 2020, 11:11
  #56 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
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Originally Posted by SkyTeam95 View Post
I am also a little bit scared by this situation but we are on a peak of hysteria and it has a reason why airlines think that everything could be back to normal in a couple of months..
TBH I’m struggling with that comment.....

Having read internal briefings and e-mails written by people not given to be hysterical, and seeing some of our aircraft starting to be parked up and with the advantage of having seen what happened during GW 1 and 9/11 I’d say the that there are vanishingly few airlines, if any, where everything could be back to normal in two months......

There’s been a lot of good advice in previous posts that I can heartily second : now is not the time to leap into an integrated course, it is the time for keeping other income streams available and not committing yourself or nearest and dearest to shouldering debt funding a course

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Old 13th Mar 2020, 19:56
  #57 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: BHX
Posts: 77
The only people that benefited in the aviation boom were flight schools. Nobody else
They sell an amazing story to vulnerable new pilots who are willing to put their life savings at stake or even more.
100€K to be a pilot.
It reminds me of the day I attended my first pilots seminar with PTC ( pilot training college) a company that promised doom and gloom, which soon after went bust. Glad I went modular then.
40€ K in total, and still had a capital left in my aircraft share!

Who ever has a job now, either lost it, or is waiting to be made redundant or even worse let go.

It the next thing after 9/11.
Keep your money guys, and don’t believe all the insta fake people that pretend its a heaven of a job! You only see one side of a story.

But the boom is over thats for sure. And there will be a very long road ahead, especially with tons of qualified pilots currently on the market. So think twice

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Old 14th Mar 2020, 06:15
  #58 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
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What Citation said.

I have heard: BA cancelling courses for new people and offering (soon to be compulsory) unpaid leave, Ryanair cancelling courses, resignations not being allowed to be rescinded, the general rumours about Norwegian and others, Flybe has put 600 pilots on the market, global slowdown that may cause global recession.

Not the time to train!!!!

Oh, the 'it will pass in a few months'. I applaud the optimism but this will be years.
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 06:18
  #59 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 734
Sorry, after posting that, I just saw this.

​​​​​​https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51875271
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Old 14th Mar 2020, 06:47
  #60 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 1998
Posts: 252
Airlines will now lay staff off, park airplanes and reduce salaries (which will never increase to their former levels). Aviation is getting increasingly chaotic. After cv19, there’ll be something else.
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