The infamous retirement bulge (and other stories)
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The infamous retirement bulge (and other stories)
It was on a quiet and overcast bank holiday, that I decided to have a look at the CAA's licensing statistics in more detail. With the aid of a whizzy spreadsheet and some back-of-the-betting-slip analysis, I found out the following interesting facts:
CPL and IR issues per year
Explaining the pre Sep 11th 'golden years' for pilot employment, plus the mystery of the lost CPLs
From 1993 - 1999 the CAA issued a virtually constant 380-450 IRs per year to CPL holders. However in 2001 and 2002 it only issued 150 per year (no stats published for 2000). With this shortage of people coming through the system, no wonder the employment prospects were good immediately prior to 11-Sep.
However as a background to this, the number of CPL issues has been climbing year on year from 527 in 1994 to 954 in 2002*. At the same time the number of new FI ratings issued to CPL holders** per year has remained roughly constant in 150-180 per year area.
So this means that there are lots of CPL holders out there with no IRs who are not instructing. What has happened to these people?
- Are they just waiting and saving for their IR (remembering the 36 month limit on their ATPLs)?
- Have they given up now that there is no low-cost self-improver route a la BCPL?
- Are they people that have been lost in the UK-JAR license change?
The main question in my mind as an unemployed CPL/IR, is whether these 'lost' people will get IRs and appear on the market once things pick up. But sadly I'm better at analysing statistics than tea leaves.
* Note that the CAA year ends on 31/3 hence we already have the 2002 figures!
** As opposed to FI ratings issued to ATPL and PPL holders who are probably already in an airline job in the former case or not aiming at airline job in the latter case.
The retirement bulge
Just how many extra pilots are needed to replace the 'Hamble retirement bulge'
The chart of valid ATPL holders by age shows two pronounced peaks, one at age 55 and one at age 42. Both peaks are a similar size. Besides these two peaks the rest of the chart is virtually constant in the 33-55 age range with c.320 ATPL holders of each age. Each of the peaks is about 4 years wide with 420 ATPLs of each age.
The pilots of the older peak are obviously set to retire in the next 5 or so years - this is the much-hyped 'retirement bulge'. A quick sum under the curve shows that there are approximately 200 more pilots set to retire over and above the usual number of retirements in the course of the next 5 or so years.
Therefore in the next few years the industry needs to hire 350-420 or so new pilots per year just to replace retirees. It usually needs to replace 310-330 per year. This assumes no expansion (or contraction!), nor does it allow for natural wastage of pilots below retiring age (for medical or personal reasons).
I then took a look at the number of CPL holders. On the assumption that most CPL holders who are aiming at airline jobs will be employed by the age of 45 (borne out by the chart of CPL holders by age which asymptotes to a low residual number of CPLs by age 45), there are currently around 2,700 valid CPLs in the UK. Of these, at least 700 will never get an airline job but will still have a valid CPL in their late 40s.
How many of these CPL holders actually have frozen ATPLs is sadly, not published. That would be very revealing.
There are many many assumptions in the above analysis, of course, plus in these days of JARS, there is the added factor of license holders from other JAA nations who can take a UK job without showing up in these figures.
If anyone is interested in more detail I can mail my spreadsheet or put the charts on a website.
cheers!
bored foggy.
edited to change terminology in the light of Alex's comments regarding IR issues been hidden in ATPL issue for certain licence conversion/ex-mil people
CPL and IR issues per year
Explaining the pre Sep 11th 'golden years' for pilot employment, plus the mystery of the lost CPLs
From 1993 - 1999 the CAA issued a virtually constant 380-450 IRs per year to CPL holders. However in 2001 and 2002 it only issued 150 per year (no stats published for 2000). With this shortage of people coming through the system, no wonder the employment prospects were good immediately prior to 11-Sep.
However as a background to this, the number of CPL issues has been climbing year on year from 527 in 1994 to 954 in 2002*. At the same time the number of new FI ratings issued to CPL holders** per year has remained roughly constant in 150-180 per year area.
So this means that there are lots of CPL holders out there with no IRs who are not instructing. What has happened to these people?
- Are they just waiting and saving for their IR (remembering the 36 month limit on their ATPLs)?
- Have they given up now that there is no low-cost self-improver route a la BCPL?
- Are they people that have been lost in the UK-JAR license change?
The main question in my mind as an unemployed CPL/IR, is whether these 'lost' people will get IRs and appear on the market once things pick up. But sadly I'm better at analysing statistics than tea leaves.
* Note that the CAA year ends on 31/3 hence we already have the 2002 figures!
** As opposed to FI ratings issued to ATPL and PPL holders who are probably already in an airline job in the former case or not aiming at airline job in the latter case.
The retirement bulge
Just how many extra pilots are needed to replace the 'Hamble retirement bulge'
The chart of valid ATPL holders by age shows two pronounced peaks, one at age 55 and one at age 42. Both peaks are a similar size. Besides these two peaks the rest of the chart is virtually constant in the 33-55 age range with c.320 ATPL holders of each age. Each of the peaks is about 4 years wide with 420 ATPLs of each age.
The pilots of the older peak are obviously set to retire in the next 5 or so years - this is the much-hyped 'retirement bulge'. A quick sum under the curve shows that there are approximately 200 more pilots set to retire over and above the usual number of retirements in the course of the next 5 or so years.
Therefore in the next few years the industry needs to hire 350-420 or so new pilots per year just to replace retirees. It usually needs to replace 310-330 per year. This assumes no expansion (or contraction!), nor does it allow for natural wastage of pilots below retiring age (for medical or personal reasons).
I then took a look at the number of CPL holders. On the assumption that most CPL holders who are aiming at airline jobs will be employed by the age of 45 (borne out by the chart of CPL holders by age which asymptotes to a low residual number of CPLs by age 45), there are currently around 2,700 valid CPLs in the UK. Of these, at least 700 will never get an airline job but will still have a valid CPL in their late 40s.
How many of these CPL holders actually have frozen ATPLs is sadly, not published. That would be very revealing.
There are many many assumptions in the above analysis, of course, plus in these days of JARS, there is the added factor of license holders from other JAA nations who can take a UK job without showing up in these figures.
If anyone is interested in more detail I can mail my spreadsheet or put the charts on a website.
cheers!
bored foggy.
edited to change terminology in the light of Alex's comments regarding IR issues been hidden in ATPL issue for certain licence conversion/ex-mil people
Last edited by foghorn; 25th Jul 2003 at 21:52.
foghorn - thank you for that. I have read the same stats and had come to similar conclusions. I meant to post them sometime but life is pretty busy for me at the moment. I thank you for doing it for me and more succinctly 
.
In addition it is pertinent to reflect 2 points.
Since the last shortage/training boom in the early to mid 90's training capacity has enlarged markedly. The real cost and the number of training posts has decreased/increased by the order of 25% in the last decade.
Put bluntly pilot training costs ( non BCPL ) are lower and the schools capacity is higher than it was. Thus there are more people in the pipeline to the dole queue than last time.
The counter argument is that the industry is bigger now.
I am not so sure from a pilot standpoint. Capacity has moved from some airlines to another, yes. The industry has got bigger, yes.
BUT its got more efficient. 10 years ago fewer people took domestic flights, yes. However, if they did, they did so on smaller aircraft. With pilots working fewer hours. The same thing on all UK - Europe flights applies.
Every crunch is different from the last. Important lessons can be drawn from past experience. But to assume history will repeat itself is usually a folly.
I think its wise to stay out of full time training right now.
I think entry to the job market in 2 years time would be the shortest prudent timescale to work to. The shortest.
I spent a pleasureable Jubilee weekend on the ale and chatted with a long time mate of mine approaching graduation from a well known FTO. He is desperately looking for a paddle and despite every incentive I can't help him find one. Be in NO hurry to join him and his classmates. Its a crappy place to be from any angle.
Cheers,
WWW
.In addition it is pertinent to reflect 2 points.
Since the last shortage/training boom in the early to mid 90's training capacity has enlarged markedly. The real cost and the number of training posts has decreased/increased by the order of 25% in the last decade.
Put bluntly pilot training costs ( non BCPL ) are lower and the schools capacity is higher than it was. Thus there are more people in the pipeline to the dole queue than last time.
The counter argument is that the industry is bigger now.
I am not so sure from a pilot standpoint. Capacity has moved from some airlines to another, yes. The industry has got bigger, yes.
BUT its got more efficient. 10 years ago fewer people took domestic flights, yes. However, if they did, they did so on smaller aircraft. With pilots working fewer hours. The same thing on all UK - Europe flights applies.
Every crunch is different from the last. Important lessons can be drawn from past experience. But to assume history will repeat itself is usually a folly.
I think its wise to stay out of full time training right now.
I think entry to the job market in 2 years time would be the shortest prudent timescale to work to. The shortest.
I spent a pleasureable Jubilee weekend on the ale and chatted with a long time mate of mine approaching graduation from a well known FTO. He is desperately looking for a paddle and despite every incentive I can't help him find one. Be in NO hurry to join him and his classmates. Its a crappy place to be from any angle.
Cheers,
WWW
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Lack of boys in blue.
Interesting stuff foggy!
Comparing against '91.
Don't forget at the time just after the Gulf War, Options for Change had just released loads of our friends in light blue on to the job market.
These days Her Majesties flying club is far smaller and as so is producing far less potential airline pilots, add this to the five figure retention bonuses that have been knocking around and half the traditional supply of pilots has dried up!
No figures just 'bloke in a pub told me' facts!
Comparing against '91.
Don't forget at the time just after the Gulf War, Options for Change had just released loads of our friends in light blue on to the job market.
These days Her Majesties flying club is far smaller and as so is producing far less potential airline pilots, add this to the five figure retention bonuses that have been knocking around and half the traditional supply of pilots has dried up!
No figures just 'bloke in a pub told me' facts!
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Somewhere around 1200 posts went in the great post-9/11 purge, but it will take sometime for them all to feed through the system. A good many of those redundancies will have been taken up by early retirments, and so won't be in the equation, and the UK airlines have gradually been re-employing many of those they made redundant. Without a national survey it's difficult to say, but my guess (based on contacts with ex-Virgin people in this boat) is about 5-700 professional pilots are still looking for permanent airline work. 120 or so came from Virgin alone!
I say there boy
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Add to that at least 500 CPL/IRs who have never had an airline job, and that means there are still 1,200 people chasing jobs. Surprisingly close to the figures coming out of airline HR departments - who say that they have upwards of 800 and often over 1,000 CVs on file.
The main factor is going to be the rate of airline recovery versus the rate of IR issue. Here goes a lot of ifs:
If airlines return to hiring c. 320+ pilots per year later this year, but the CAA goes on issuing only 150 IRs per year as in April 1999-March 2002, this stock of qualified pilots will dry up in a few years and the 'golden years' should return. Obviously the greater the rate of expansion, compared to the rate of IR issue, the sooner this will happen. A general expansion of the industry across Europe rather than a UK-only expansion is the best scenario, because this means that less European pilots will be tempted to leave their home country to fly for UK airlines.
If the IR issue rate increases to its pre-1999 levels (450 per year), or the airlines don't recover quickly, it's going to be a long uphill struggle for out of work pilots, especially those of us at the bottom of the food chain.
Luckily, as has been said, it looks like some airlines are back on their feet and hiring very quickly, in fact, certain low cost ones hardly blinked. Whether that represents a genuine expansion of the industry, or as WWW points out, just a shifting of capacity to more cost efficient airlines, only time will tell.
cheers!
foggy.
The main factor is going to be the rate of airline recovery versus the rate of IR issue. Here goes a lot of ifs:
If airlines return to hiring c. 320+ pilots per year later this year, but the CAA goes on issuing only 150 IRs per year as in April 1999-March 2002, this stock of qualified pilots will dry up in a few years and the 'golden years' should return. Obviously the greater the rate of expansion, compared to the rate of IR issue, the sooner this will happen. A general expansion of the industry across Europe rather than a UK-only expansion is the best scenario, because this means that less European pilots will be tempted to leave their home country to fly for UK airlines.
If the IR issue rate increases to its pre-1999 levels (450 per year), or the airlines don't recover quickly, it's going to be a long uphill struggle for out of work pilots, especially those of us at the bottom of the food chain.
Luckily, as has been said, it looks like some airlines are back on their feet and hiring very quickly, in fact, certain low cost ones hardly blinked. Whether that represents a genuine expansion of the industry, or as WWW points out, just a shifting of capacity to more cost efficient airlines, only time will tell.
cheers!
foggy.
Last edited by foghorn; 6th Jun 2002 at 09:33.
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scroggs
Are you sure 1200 pilots lost their jobs in the UK. Outside VS and Gill I can not think of any airline that ACTUALLY made more than 50 pilots redundant. As opposed to said they would make lots redundant or allowed early retirement.
The low cost people have taken in about 150 pilots since 911.
On that basis I would be surpassed if there are more than 250 pilots out of work that have worked for an airline in the past.
I may well be wrong and would be interested in any other opinions.
Are you sure 1200 pilots lost their jobs in the UK. Outside VS and Gill I can not think of any airline that ACTUALLY made more than 50 pilots redundant. As opposed to said they would make lots redundant or allowed early retirement.
The low cost people have taken in about 150 pilots since 911.
On that basis I would be surpassed if there are more than 250 pilots out of work that have worked for an airline in the past.
I may well be wrong and would be interested in any other opinions.
Don't underestimate the effect of JAA.
In my little corner of the world we now have about half a dozen pilots who are ex-Sabena.
The collapse of the Belgian national airline in the early 90's would have been of supreme indifference to the average British Wannabe. Post JAA it puts hundreds of CV's on British airlines desks overnight.
Thats a big difference.
We in the UK already had a strong ex-pat workforce from the former colonies, oops, I mean Commonwealth. They have right of work and abode and if they were willing to convert their licenses then over here they came.
In this country therefore it is pretty easy for pilots from dozens and dozens of countries to find work if they are so motivated. Whereas many commonwealth countries won't let you in and European ones won't employ you due to language.
Thats not to forget though that there are thousands of Brit pilots scattered to the four winds.
I am not having a go at anyone about going to another country to earn a living flying. If its legal to do it and you make the effort then thats all there is to it. I went to fly professionally in Spain not so long ago myself.
What I am trying to point out is that its astoundingly difficult to predict the pilot job market. It was hard enough in the early 90's. It harder still these days. I personally have no inkling about the pilot job market in Italy for example. For all I know there may be thousands of pilots about to be made redundant. Ot they may be short of pilots in Italy. The average Italian pilot might jump at the chance of living in Britain. Or he may be allergic to drizzle.
I just don't know.
You don't know.
Nobody really knows.
About the only certain fact is that the aviation business will enjoy strong growth over the next decade.
No doubt about it.
Unless of course the Greens get a carbon tax through and then ticket prices would have to quadruple overnight and... You see?
Good luck,
WWW
In my little corner of the world we now have about half a dozen pilots who are ex-Sabena.
The collapse of the Belgian national airline in the early 90's would have been of supreme indifference to the average British Wannabe. Post JAA it puts hundreds of CV's on British airlines desks overnight.
Thats a big difference.
We in the UK already had a strong ex-pat workforce from the former colonies, oops, I mean Commonwealth. They have right of work and abode and if they were willing to convert their licenses then over here they came.
In this country therefore it is pretty easy for pilots from dozens and dozens of countries to find work if they are so motivated. Whereas many commonwealth countries won't let you in and European ones won't employ you due to language.
Thats not to forget though that there are thousands of Brit pilots scattered to the four winds.
I am not having a go at anyone about going to another country to earn a living flying. If its legal to do it and you make the effort then thats all there is to it. I went to fly professionally in Spain not so long ago myself.
What I am trying to point out is that its astoundingly difficult to predict the pilot job market. It was hard enough in the early 90's. It harder still these days. I personally have no inkling about the pilot job market in Italy for example. For all I know there may be thousands of pilots about to be made redundant. Ot they may be short of pilots in Italy. The average Italian pilot might jump at the chance of living in Britain. Or he may be allergic to drizzle.
I just don't know.
You don't know.
Nobody really knows.
About the only certain fact is that the aviation business will enjoy strong growth over the next decade.
No doubt about it.
Unless of course the Greens get a carbon tax through and then ticket prices would have to quadruple overnight and... You see?
Good luck,
WWW
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xyz
I didn't say 1200 pilots lost their jobs. I said that around 1200 posts went. That includes, for instance, 400 at BA which won't involve a single redundancy - but those jobs aren't available for anyone else, either!
VS's was the largest single redundancy (250 including FE's), but there were many others elsewhere, although I'm aware that many redundancies were announced and not carried through. Don't forget that a good many early retirers, particularly at BA, put themselves straight back into the jobs market - and they will compete for the low-paid jobs because they can! As WWW says, many of the low-cost sector's vacancies have been filled by 737-qualified people from Sabena and other european airlines.
Both general chat around the bazaars, and BALPA's own assessment, suggest that my guess is about right. But, hey, if I'm wrong then things may get better more quickly! Let's hope so.
I didn't say 1200 pilots lost their jobs. I said that around 1200 posts went. That includes, for instance, 400 at BA which won't involve a single redundancy - but those jobs aren't available for anyone else, either!
VS's was the largest single redundancy (250 including FE's), but there were many others elsewhere, although I'm aware that many redundancies were announced and not carried through. Don't forget that a good many early retirers, particularly at BA, put themselves straight back into the jobs market - and they will compete for the low-paid jobs because they can! As WWW says, many of the low-cost sector's vacancies have been filled by 737-qualified people from Sabena and other european airlines.
Both general chat around the bazaars, and BALPA's own assessment, suggest that my guess is about right. But, hey, if I'm wrong then things may get better more quickly! Let's hope so.
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Foghorn, are you sure about the number of IRs issued in 2001 & 2002? Just that I'm at the other end of the scale, and have been touring the flight schools. One question on my list (probably a bit irrelevant) was how many people have you trained recently and have they got through their IRTs (I've got a bee in my bonnet about first time pass rates that gets me lots of stick here 
)
Oxford alone said they graduated more people than you are quoting in the years you mentioned, and there are a lot more schools around.
Not that the CAA would be wrong, but I’ve been asking them for some statistics, and I’ve found that they have had trouble coming up with answers and when they have they sometimes contradict an answer that they have given me before.
)Oxford alone said they graduated more people than you are quoting in the years you mentioned, and there are a lot more schools around.
Not that the CAA would be wrong
, but I’ve been asking them for some statistics, and I’ve found that they have had trouble coming up with answers and when they have they sometimes contradict an answer that they have given me before.
I say there boy
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Well, that's what the CAA say on their website. There were about 30 IRs issued to PPLs in the same years, so people getting their IR before their CPL is not a massive factor.
But as you say the CAA is by no means infallible.
foggy.
But as you say the CAA is by no means infallible.
foggy.
Last edited by foghorn; 7th Jun 2002 at 10:04.
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Since you are discussing the JAA implentation here, maybe you would like to look at my thread in questions on the implentation of JAA. JAA Implentation Questions
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Having monitored this on a one airline basis for over 15 years, it is interesting to note that any so called retirement bulge is evened out by other perhaps less obvious factors.
Not all pilots retire at 55. Some continue to 60 with a progressive level of attrition in between. A proportion of pilots retire before 55 on health grounds.
Pilot recruitment is undertaken at various ranges commensurate with the levels of experience being sought. Other factors affecting the input are pension cost considerations, time to command requirements and market availability.
All of these factors combine to effectively smooth out the airlines requirement. Predictions based simply on retirement dates are likely to be very distorted in reality.
Not all pilots retire at 55. Some continue to 60 with a progressive level of attrition in between. A proportion of pilots retire before 55 on health grounds.
Pilot recruitment is undertaken at various ranges commensurate with the levels of experience being sought. Other factors affecting the input are pension cost considerations, time to command requirements and market availability.
All of these factors combine to effectively smooth out the airlines requirement. Predictions based simply on retirement dates are likely to be very distorted in reality.
I say there boy
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Statistics update
For the year April 2002 - March 2003 the CAA has published the following stats:
Number of CPL(A)s issued: 1,011
Compared with 527 in 1994 and 954 in 2002. So the number of CPLs issued continues to climb as it did year on year in the late nineties, early 21st c.
IRs issued to CPL holders: 200
This is compared to 350-420 per year 1993 - 1999, but only 150 per year for 2001-02. So gradually more new CPL/IRs are coming through the system after the significant post-JAR drop, but we're still nowhere near pre-JAR levels. Comparing this with the ever-increasing number CPLs issued means we have even more 'lost' CPLs than usual: likely to be a sign of large numbers of wannabes who are putting off their IR until the aviation industry recovers.
FI ratings issued to Professional Licence holders: 213
This is compared to a near constant 150-180 per year for many years previously. This bears out anecdotal evidence that significantly more people have been doing instructor ratings post Sep-11.
Number of CPL(A)s issued: 1,011
Compared with 527 in 1994 and 954 in 2002. So the number of CPLs issued continues to climb as it did year on year in the late nineties, early 21st c.
IRs issued to CPL holders: 200
This is compared to 350-420 per year 1993 - 1999, but only 150 per year for 2001-02. So gradually more new CPL/IRs are coming through the system after the significant post-JAR drop, but we're still nowhere near pre-JAR levels. Comparing this with the ever-increasing number CPLs issued means we have even more 'lost' CPLs than usual: likely to be a sign of large numbers of wannabes who are putting off their IR until the aviation industry recovers.
FI ratings issued to Professional Licence holders: 213
This is compared to a near constant 150-180 per year for many years previously. This bears out anecdotal evidence that significantly more people have been doing instructor ratings post Sep-11.
Last edited by foghorn; 25th Jul 2003 at 21:50.
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BFC did a 100+ IR's in 2002 and I can't believe the other schools between them only did 100.
Foggy was the info on IR's issued on JAR licences or old national licences or both?
Foggy was the info on IR's issued on JAR licences or old national licences or both?
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I've just checked with them, they were nearly all initial issues. Notice the CAA stats here don't list IRs issued to ATPL holders. Might this be because the IR is not a separate rating for the ATPL(A) and therefore a large number of IR issues for licence conversions and military pilots are hidden in the ATPL(A) issue figures?
I say there boy
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Ah , thanks Alex, I hadn't thought of that one.
So if that explanation is true (and it looks very plausible) we can take the IR issue number as being a rough measure of the number of new low-hours pilots appearing on the scene since IRs issued along with ATPLs will by definition be to experienced people.
I'll use the term 'IRs issued to CPL holders' in future - now edited above.
So if that explanation is true (and it looks very plausible) we can take the IR issue number as being a rough measure of the number of new low-hours pilots appearing on the scene since IRs issued along with ATPLs will by definition be to experienced people.
I'll use the term 'IRs issued to CPL holders' in future - now edited above.