Are things slowing down?
Whose biased which way?
WWW
WWW
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Check out the wannabe forums in early 2001.
There were a few posts asking similar questions to this thread. Some replies stating that they were then reaching the end of the recruitment cycle and to prepare for harder times ahead, others (the majority) posting blind optimism. Makes fairly sober reading.
The world economic cycle is 7 years and we are reaching the end of the mature phase right now (as we were in early 2001, ie 7 years ago). Whilst no one could have predicted 9/11, Iraq, Sars etc, some prudent individuals were questioning future prospects even before Sept 11th and its subsequent 3 year recruitment drought.
As WWW says, those who do not learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat its mistakes.
There is no visible imminent collapse, but all the classic signs of a slow down are there. How much things slow down is moot.
There were a few posts asking similar questions to this thread. Some replies stating that they were then reaching the end of the recruitment cycle and to prepare for harder times ahead, others (the majority) posting blind optimism. Makes fairly sober reading.
The world economic cycle is 7 years and we are reaching the end of the mature phase right now (as we were in early 2001, ie 7 years ago). Whilst no one could have predicted 9/11, Iraq, Sars etc, some prudent individuals were questioning future prospects even before Sept 11th and its subsequent 3 year recruitment drought.
As WWW says, those who do not learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat its mistakes.
There is no visible imminent collapse, but all the classic signs of a slow down are there. How much things slow down is moot.
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Hi guys,
I work on the trading floor in a very big investment bank. All the traders/speculators all say one thing:
RECESSION - not if but when..
I'm not an economist or anything but i have learned to respect their opinion and they think that the US economy will go into reverse late next year and well when they have a cold we have a flu (or something along those lines)...
Can't wait for this to happen as the opportunites to buy will be tremendous (lots of money to be made) and well i will finally be able to afford a home!....yeeehaaaaa (sorry to all those poor sods who have loans, mortages
.. you're loss is my gain 
... finally)
I work on the trading floor in a very big investment bank. All the traders/speculators all say one thing:
RECESSION - not if but when..
I'm not an economist or anything but i have learned to respect their opinion and they think that the US economy will go into reverse late next year and well when they have a cold we have a flu (or something along those lines)...
Can't wait for this to happen as the opportunites to buy will be tremendous (lots of money to be made) and well i will finally be able to afford a home!....yeeehaaaaa (sorry to all those poor sods who have loans, mortages
.. you're loss is my gain ... finally)
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The UK is about to pass through a trough. Here are a few examples
Virgin
No expansion or recruitment until the 787s arrive in about 3 years time
easyJet
Recruiting for holding pools now and will have the integration of GB to worry about for next year
Thomson/First Choice & My Travel/Thomas Cook
Redundancies have been mentioned on other threads when these two merge. Not sure what the latest news is.
BMI Mainline
Very similar to easyjet since they have recently added BMed to their operation.
Excel
Despite new shiny A330s coming they are downsizing their UK operation. Cabin crew being made redundant - however not sure what the state of play is for flight crew.
The above examples may not be 100% accurate but they will give you a rough idea!
The high price of oil, the unstable dollar and relatively high interest rates will all have a negative effect on commercial aviation in the UK.
So from someone from the inside looking out I would echo what WWW said.
If you are after that first job then time to maybe think of a back up plan - instructing for example. If you have not done your training then either hold off for the time being if you are going to do a integrated course or do the modular route in your own time.
Virgin
No expansion or recruitment until the 787s arrive in about 3 years time
easyJet
Recruiting for holding pools now and will have the integration of GB to worry about for next year
Thomson/First Choice & My Travel/Thomas Cook
Redundancies have been mentioned on other threads when these two merge. Not sure what the latest news is.
BMI Mainline
Very similar to easyjet since they have recently added BMed to their operation.
Excel
Despite new shiny A330s coming they are downsizing their UK operation. Cabin crew being made redundant - however not sure what the state of play is for flight crew.
The above examples may not be 100% accurate but they will give you a rough idea!
The high price of oil, the unstable dollar and relatively high interest rates will all have a negative effect on commercial aviation in the UK.
So from someone from the inside looking out I would echo what WWW said.
If you are after that first job then time to maybe think of a back up plan - instructing for example. If you have not done your training then either hold off for the time being if you are going to do a integrated course or do the modular route in your own time.
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Guidance from the financial markets - what drive the revenues!
Shares of Europe's key flag carriers came under further pressure today (4/12/207) amid
mounting fears that trading conditions will weaken next year.
Although key players British Airways , Air France-KLM and Deutsche Lufthansa
continue to see strong passenger demand, analysts believe weaker economic
conditions could hit their lucrative premium traffic going into next year.
High oil prices and increased competition on key transatlantic and Asian
routes are also damping prospects in the sector, they said.
"The stock market is telling you that the airline industry has already peaked,"
JP Morgan analyst Chris Avery said at an airline conference in London this week.
Avery said the sector appears to have reached a cyclical peak in profitability
although not in passenger growth.
BA, Air France-KLM, Lufthansa and smaller players such as Spain's Iberia Lineas
Aereas de Espana all generate a large chunk of their profits from sales of
premium tickets, or first and business class, on long-haul routes.
This lucrative traffic typically softens during times of weaker economic growth
as global financial institutions and other blue-chip companies look to trim back
on international travel.
In a research note issued today, ABN Amro said airline share prices are
reflecting $90 oil and a likely slowdown in premium traffic.
"We believe premium traffic growth will slow and think the market has got it
right, despite the companies' protestations that we are in a developing market
driven super-cycle," it said.
Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, has cut its earnings estimates for the major
carriers, reflecting a negative pricing environment in 2008.
"We estimate that ticket prices need to rise by more than 2% in some cases to
offset fuel cost inflation, and as yields can fall by as much as 8% through the
cycle, risks are skewed to the downside," it said.
"I think the industry has gone back to negative yields," Chris Avery of JP
Morgan said.
Yields are typically a measure of average unit revenue per passenger.
Avery added that low-cost, or budget, carriers are likely to be more resilient
in any economic downturn.
Share prices have already fallen sharply this year reflecting fears over the
outlook.
So far this year, shares in BA are down 39%, Air France-KLM are down 28%, and
Lufthansa is off 18%.
Sentiment has also been hit by rising fuel costs, while BA also faces
increasing competition from next April at its Heathrow base when the 'open
skies' pact opens up the airport to more competition for transatlantic services.
Mid-afternoon today, BA was down 6.4% at 322p in London, Lufthansa shares were
down 2.8% at EUR17.69 and Air France-KLM off 3.6% at EUR22.83 in Paris.
Lawrence Hunt, chief executive of UK business-class only airline Silverjet,
told Dow Jones Newswires in a recent interview that his company is seeing
increased interest from investment banks looking for lower priced tickets
compared to the major flag carriers.
Silverjet flies from London's Luton Airport to New York and Dubai and says its
tickets are significantly cheaper than those offer by major carriers.
BA, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM all saw strong upturns in profit during the
quarter to September 30 and are still reporting strong passenger demand.
British Airways, however, did trim its full-year sales outlook, but this was
mainly due to the impact of the weaker dollar on results.
European carriers are due to release November passenger traffic this week and
next.
Rod Stone, Dow Jones Newswires
Shares of Europe's key flag carriers came under further pressure today (4/12/207) amid
mounting fears that trading conditions will weaken next year.
Although key players British Airways , Air France-KLM and Deutsche Lufthansa
continue to see strong passenger demand, analysts believe weaker economic
conditions could hit their lucrative premium traffic going into next year.
High oil prices and increased competition on key transatlantic and Asian
routes are also damping prospects in the sector, they said.
"The stock market is telling you that the airline industry has already peaked,"
JP Morgan analyst Chris Avery said at an airline conference in London this week.
Avery said the sector appears to have reached a cyclical peak in profitability
although not in passenger growth.
BA, Air France-KLM, Lufthansa and smaller players such as Spain's Iberia Lineas
Aereas de Espana all generate a large chunk of their profits from sales of
premium tickets, or first and business class, on long-haul routes.
This lucrative traffic typically softens during times of weaker economic growth
as global financial institutions and other blue-chip companies look to trim back
on international travel.
In a research note issued today, ABN Amro said airline share prices are
reflecting $90 oil and a likely slowdown in premium traffic.
"We believe premium traffic growth will slow and think the market has got it
right, despite the companies' protestations that we are in a developing market
driven super-cycle," it said.
Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, has cut its earnings estimates for the major
carriers, reflecting a negative pricing environment in 2008.
"We estimate that ticket prices need to rise by more than 2% in some cases to
offset fuel cost inflation, and as yields can fall by as much as 8% through the
cycle, risks are skewed to the downside," it said.
"I think the industry has gone back to negative yields," Chris Avery of JP
Morgan said.
Yields are typically a measure of average unit revenue per passenger.
Avery added that low-cost, or budget, carriers are likely to be more resilient
in any economic downturn.
Share prices have already fallen sharply this year reflecting fears over the
outlook.
So far this year, shares in BA are down 39%, Air France-KLM are down 28%, and
Lufthansa is off 18%.
Sentiment has also been hit by rising fuel costs, while BA also faces
increasing competition from next April at its Heathrow base when the 'open
skies' pact opens up the airport to more competition for transatlantic services.
Mid-afternoon today, BA was down 6.4% at 322p in London, Lufthansa shares were
down 2.8% at EUR17.69 and Air France-KLM off 3.6% at EUR22.83 in Paris.
Lawrence Hunt, chief executive of UK business-class only airline Silverjet,
told Dow Jones Newswires in a recent interview that his company is seeing
increased interest from investment banks looking for lower priced tickets
compared to the major flag carriers.
Silverjet flies from London's Luton Airport to New York and Dubai and says its
tickets are significantly cheaper than those offer by major carriers.
BA, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM all saw strong upturns in profit during the
quarter to September 30 and are still reporting strong passenger demand.
British Airways, however, did trim its full-year sales outlook, but this was
mainly due to the impact of the weaker dollar on results.
European carriers are due to release November passenger traffic this week and
next.
Rod Stone, Dow Jones Newswires
LIBOR saw the biggest ever jump today.
You don't know what that means. I do. A bit.
It means money is now costing 6.7% for the banks. Who have to then lend it to you or I for a profit AND cover their costs of rent, staff and advertising AND absorb people who go bust and walk away from their loans.
Can you see how expensive debt is going to get yet?
Can you?
Be VERY careful.
WWW
You don't know what that means. I do. A bit.
It means money is now costing 6.7% for the banks. Who have to then lend it to you or I for a profit AND cover their costs of rent, staff and advertising AND absorb people who go bust and walk away from their loans.
Can you see how expensive debt is going to get yet?
Can you?
Be VERY careful.
WWW
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Good posts by "Artie Fufkin" & "Mister Geezer"
I am a believer in the seven year cycle theory and believe we are approaching a trough. Previously mentioned facts include:
Easy + GB (equalling min recruitment), Tom + Last Choice (equalling zero recruitment), Cook + MyT (equalling min), etc. In general, not looking good. Just look on ppjn, under the "outlook" section of various airlines...
However, HSBC will never stop lending the money as long as OAT (etc) keep taking the students, which they will. If the next two years is as bad as predicted for jobs, OAT will still be laughing! A max turnover of 1.5 million per course, around 18 million per year (i have no idea how much profit that would equate to but still!). Now who's in the wrong job!
It isn't about the money though, until you get the job...
I am a believer in the seven year cycle theory and believe we are approaching a trough. Previously mentioned facts include:
Easy + GB (equalling min recruitment), Tom + Last Choice (equalling zero recruitment), Cook + MyT (equalling min), etc. In general, not looking good. Just look on ppjn, under the "outlook" section of various airlines...
However, HSBC will never stop lending the money as long as OAT (etc) keep taking the students, which they will. If the next two years is as bad as predicted for jobs, OAT will still be laughing! A max turnover of 1.5 million per course, around 18 million per year (i have no idea how much profit that would equate to but still!). Now who's in the wrong job!
It isn't about the money though, until you get the job...
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As John Michael Stipe sang so well....
"It's the end of the World as we know it"
Urm...
Am I missing something RJ? If OAT/CTC are chucking guys in hold pools for up to a year after they have finished their courses will the banks not realise they are not getting payment schedules stuck to? What about their risk assessors?
2 main reasons why the banks lend 80g unsecured to OAT/CTC students.
1) They passed a 'selection process' so are deemed to comfortably succeed on a 'highly regarded' course.
2) Because the course is supposed to be highly regarded and with FTO's links to airlines as well as proven KPI placement figures. (The banks gets to have a nice slice of repayent money)
So 1) still hopefully gets satisfied and urm..
2) goes out of the window...
Will there not be a point in a down turn where the banks will pull the plug? (Minimal jobs available and too much saturation)?
Someone please outline if i'm wrong?
"It's the end of the World as we know it"
Urm...
HSBC will never stop lending the money as long as OAT (etc) keep taking the students
2 main reasons why the banks lend 80g unsecured to OAT/CTC students.
1) They passed a 'selection process' so are deemed to comfortably succeed on a 'highly regarded' course.
2) Because the course is supposed to be highly regarded and with FTO's links to airlines as well as proven KPI placement figures. (The banks gets to have a nice slice of repayent money)
So 1) still hopefully gets satisfied and urm..
If the next two years is as bad as predicted for jobs, OAT will still be laughing!
Will there not be a point in a down turn where the banks will pull the plug? (Minimal jobs available and too much saturation)?
Someone please outline if i'm wrong?
I REALLY SHOULDN'T BE HERE
Sorry to pour some sunshine on your damp parade but apparently easyJet have taken a bunch of pilots from CTC's hold pool, NetJets have an ongoing requirement for pilots, Etihad have announced their fleet expansion programme through 2020, according to the Flybe page on OAT's website BE require 10 minimum hours cadets per month through 2009.......7 year cycles? Don't believe in them - merely man's desire to percieve order in a chaotic process.
sr
sr
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I think it's going to slow down for a while and then should pick up again.
The reason is very simple: there is far not enough instructors,line training captains and simulators to absorb the huge demand. So what the companies do? Try to attract experienced and rated pilots from other companies. It's just rotating or shifting pilots who are in a position to choose the job they want, including financial package, living environment, and other advantages.
At the end, I can also say that expatriate pilots will be less and less worldwide, because the countries put more and more priorities on their nationals. India is getting more and more equipped with training facilities, China is the same and will even build their own airbuses. Malaysia, Thailand, even Africa with Ethiopia, South Africa,...
So a piece of advice, try to get into a very stable company asap before this situation freezes. And I forgot to mention the oil problem...
The reason is very simple: there is far not enough instructors,line training captains and simulators to absorb the huge demand. So what the companies do? Try to attract experienced and rated pilots from other companies. It's just rotating or shifting pilots who are in a position to choose the job they want, including financial package, living environment, and other advantages.
At the end, I can also say that expatriate pilots will be less and less worldwide, because the countries put more and more priorities on their nationals. India is getting more and more equipped with training facilities, China is the same and will even build their own airbuses. Malaysia, Thailand, even Africa with Ethiopia, South Africa,...
So a piece of advice, try to get into a very stable company asap before this situation freezes. And I forgot to mention the oil problem...
There isn't an airline pilot in the world who won't tell you that this business is highly cyclical.
Since the 1950's the commercial aviation industry has exactly mirrored the business cycle. There are good years and bad years and they are pretty much identical to the wider economic picture. I gaurantee, 100%, that if the US and Europe enter a recession or near recession in 2008/9 then some airlines will go bust, some will lay off pilots and hardly anyone will want to hire a guy fresh out of flying training.
What is debateable is whether or not you believe the wider economic picture is one containing a US recession and European near recession in 2008/9. I do believe this will happen. I do believe the house price crashes now officially taking place in Ireland, America, France, Spain and elsewhere will occur in the UK. I do believe the economy is in dire straits. YOU may:
Believe that the credit crunch is contained.
Believe that the dollar will recover.
Believe that house prices will hold up.
You might be right.
Time will tell. For now my advice remains, train slowly, spend as little as possible and pay off the debts as you go along the best you can.
Good luck,
WWW
Since the 1950's the commercial aviation industry has exactly mirrored the business cycle. There are good years and bad years and they are pretty much identical to the wider economic picture. I gaurantee, 100%, that if the US and Europe enter a recession or near recession in 2008/9 then some airlines will go bust, some will lay off pilots and hardly anyone will want to hire a guy fresh out of flying training.
What is debateable is whether or not you believe the wider economic picture is one containing a US recession and European near recession in 2008/9. I do believe this will happen. I do believe the house price crashes now officially taking place in Ireland, America, France, Spain and elsewhere will occur in the UK. I do believe the economy is in dire straits. YOU may:
Believe that the credit crunch is contained.
Believe that the dollar will recover.
Believe that house prices will hold up.
You might be right.
Time will tell. For now my advice remains, train slowly, spend as little as possible and pay off the debts as you go along the best you can.
Good luck,
WWW
I honestly didn't go looking for this but just happened to pick up a copy of the Independent as they are (as usual) giving them away in the hotel. Chimes with my views and perhaps shows that I'm not some personally pessimistic loan voice of doom...
Is Britain's economy heading for the perfect storm?
Sean O'Grady, Economics Editor
Published: 05 December 2007
The storm clouds are gathering over the jobs market; the climate on the high street is growing distinctly chilly; a typhoon of bad debt is buffeting the banks. Could a "perfect storm" be about to hit the British economy?
The signs couldn't be much bleaker. The switchback in sentiment since the credit crisis began in the summer has been violent. The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index recorded its largest drop yesterday, and joins the GfK/NOP survey earlier this week in suggesting that a wave of pessimism not seen for years is washing over the economy.
House prices have begun to fall, albeit slightly; commercial property is seemingly on the brink of collapse on a par with that seen in the early 1990s. The buy-to-let market is vulnerable. The Bank of England has, unprecedentedly, voiced concerns about the grim prospects for real estate. And the Financial Services Authority has warned of the "very real prospect" of the global credit crunch getting much worse. It is that bad.
Shopkeepers are looking forward to a black Christmas. Sir Philip Green, the boss of Top Shop and BHS, said last night on Sky TV that "business is very, very tough". The British Retail Consortium says that sales grew only marginally in November, having slowed markedly in October. JD Sports, ScS furniture and Greene King are the latest household names warning of setbacks. About 4.4 million credit-card customers still haven't cleared debts they ran up last Christmas, according to MoneyExpert.com.
We're less ready to spend, particularly on "big ticket" items – furniture, fridges, cars and so on. We're more pessimistic about our finances. We don't want to take on more debt and we want to rebuild our savings. The credit markets are seizing up again. That means banks are becoming much, much choosier about who they lend to, and are charging ever higher rates, despite the efforts of the authorities to keep money markets functioning normally. No lending; no spending.
That unwillingness to lend – the credit crunch – has started to affect businesses too, though firms remain generally more upbeat than consumers. Manufacturing firms, and in particular those in the car industry, are happy, a veritable ray of sunshine. However, manufacturing makes up only 15 per cent of the economy. In the financial sector, responsible for more than half of the recent growth in the UK's GDP, the mood is glum.
After months defying gravity, share prices have suffered some dramatic falls. City bonuses will be cut this year – and next – along with recruitment and investment. Barclays, HSBC and other banks have reported billions in losses, while the future of Northern Rock is uncertain.
Growth in the construction sector eased to a 14-month low in November, according to the Chartered Institute for Purchasing and Supply. The gentle rise in unemployment over the past 18 months may accelerate. The accountants KPMG say that "what we are seeing is that the credit crunch is tightening its grip over the economy... an underlying weakening, with both demand for permanent staff and vacancies down on the levels earlier this year."
Everyone from the Treasury to the IMF has trimmed their forecasts for UK growth; from close to 3 per cent for 2008, down to nearer 2 per cent. The IMF says that even this is now too optimistic. Is it time to start talking about the "R-word" – recession, and the possibility that the economy might shrink?
The difficulty is that the credit crisis is a process that feeds on itself rather than an event that can be declared "over". It began with the collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market and the housing crash there, problems which are intensifying. As more sub-prime customers default – because of the credit crunch – more banks record losses and stop lending, and more properties are dumped on to the depressed US housing market. That depresses confidence and spending, and the screw turns again.
On this side of the Atlantic we feel the chill because our banks are exposed to sub-prime and because the US economy is the world's biggest. If it slows, it drags us down with it. And the mood of economic gloom – Northern Rock, headlines on house-price crashes, higher prices for fuel at forecourts and food at checkouts – is reinforcing itself. Confidence is the magic ingredient in any economy; it is evaporating fast. There's no knowing how bad it could get.
The most pernicious aspect of this downturn is how it could turn not so much into a recession, but into "slowflation" – slow growth plus inflation. A depressed economy can co-exist with high inflation, as the world found in the 1970s. Low demand and high input costs (such as oil at $100 [£48] a barrel; wheat prices at record highs) squeeze profits and employment and cut the real value of wages. It also makes it tougher for the Bank of England to allow interest rates to drift lower.
But the really bad weather would arrive if the Chinese economy stumbled. Next year, more than half the world's growth will derive from China, India and other emerging economies. Were they to falter – say because the Shanghai stock market bubble burst – the world would almost certainly lurch into recession.
In all events, the worst of the slowdown will hit us towards the end of 2008, going into the spring and summer of 2009; the point when a general election is due. By then the public finances would be well out of control, though that may be the least of ministers' worries. Gordon Brown might not have sowed the seeds of the coming economic storm, but he may well reap the whirlwind.
http://news.independent.co.uk/busine...cle3223673.ece
WWW
Is Britain's economy heading for the perfect storm?
Sean O'Grady, Economics Editor
Published: 05 December 2007
The storm clouds are gathering over the jobs market; the climate on the high street is growing distinctly chilly; a typhoon of bad debt is buffeting the banks. Could a "perfect storm" be about to hit the British economy?
The signs couldn't be much bleaker. The switchback in sentiment since the credit crisis began in the summer has been violent. The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index recorded its largest drop yesterday, and joins the GfK/NOP survey earlier this week in suggesting that a wave of pessimism not seen for years is washing over the economy.
House prices have begun to fall, albeit slightly; commercial property is seemingly on the brink of collapse on a par with that seen in the early 1990s. The buy-to-let market is vulnerable. The Bank of England has, unprecedentedly, voiced concerns about the grim prospects for real estate. And the Financial Services Authority has warned of the "very real prospect" of the global credit crunch getting much worse. It is that bad.
Shopkeepers are looking forward to a black Christmas. Sir Philip Green, the boss of Top Shop and BHS, said last night on Sky TV that "business is very, very tough". The British Retail Consortium says that sales grew only marginally in November, having slowed markedly in October. JD Sports, ScS furniture and Greene King are the latest household names warning of setbacks. About 4.4 million credit-card customers still haven't cleared debts they ran up last Christmas, according to MoneyExpert.com.
We're less ready to spend, particularly on "big ticket" items – furniture, fridges, cars and so on. We're more pessimistic about our finances. We don't want to take on more debt and we want to rebuild our savings. The credit markets are seizing up again. That means banks are becoming much, much choosier about who they lend to, and are charging ever higher rates, despite the efforts of the authorities to keep money markets functioning normally. No lending; no spending.
That unwillingness to lend – the credit crunch – has started to affect businesses too, though firms remain generally more upbeat than consumers. Manufacturing firms, and in particular those in the car industry, are happy, a veritable ray of sunshine. However, manufacturing makes up only 15 per cent of the economy. In the financial sector, responsible for more than half of the recent growth in the UK's GDP, the mood is glum.
After months defying gravity, share prices have suffered some dramatic falls. City bonuses will be cut this year – and next – along with recruitment and investment. Barclays, HSBC and other banks have reported billions in losses, while the future of Northern Rock is uncertain.
Growth in the construction sector eased to a 14-month low in November, according to the Chartered Institute for Purchasing and Supply. The gentle rise in unemployment over the past 18 months may accelerate. The accountants KPMG say that "what we are seeing is that the credit crunch is tightening its grip over the economy... an underlying weakening, with both demand for permanent staff and vacancies down on the levels earlier this year."
Everyone from the Treasury to the IMF has trimmed their forecasts for UK growth; from close to 3 per cent for 2008, down to nearer 2 per cent. The IMF says that even this is now too optimistic. Is it time to start talking about the "R-word" – recession, and the possibility that the economy might shrink?
The difficulty is that the credit crisis is a process that feeds on itself rather than an event that can be declared "over". It began with the collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market and the housing crash there, problems which are intensifying. As more sub-prime customers default – because of the credit crunch – more banks record losses and stop lending, and more properties are dumped on to the depressed US housing market. That depresses confidence and spending, and the screw turns again.
On this side of the Atlantic we feel the chill because our banks are exposed to sub-prime and because the US economy is the world's biggest. If it slows, it drags us down with it. And the mood of economic gloom – Northern Rock, headlines on house-price crashes, higher prices for fuel at forecourts and food at checkouts – is reinforcing itself. Confidence is the magic ingredient in any economy; it is evaporating fast. There's no knowing how bad it could get.
The most pernicious aspect of this downturn is how it could turn not so much into a recession, but into "slowflation" – slow growth plus inflation. A depressed economy can co-exist with high inflation, as the world found in the 1970s. Low demand and high input costs (such as oil at $100 [£48] a barrel; wheat prices at record highs) squeeze profits and employment and cut the real value of wages. It also makes it tougher for the Bank of England to allow interest rates to drift lower.
But the really bad weather would arrive if the Chinese economy stumbled. Next year, more than half the world's growth will derive from China, India and other emerging economies. Were they to falter – say because the Shanghai stock market bubble burst – the world would almost certainly lurch into recession.
In all events, the worst of the slowdown will hit us towards the end of 2008, going into the spring and summer of 2009; the point when a general election is due. By then the public finances would be well out of control, though that may be the least of ministers' worries. Gordon Brown might not have sowed the seeds of the coming economic storm, but he may well reap the whirlwind.
http://news.independent.co.uk/busine...cle3223673.ece
WWW
I REALLY SHOULDN'T BE HERE
Just to clarify - I do not doubt that the strength of the global economy directly affects the demand for air travel; what I do disagree with is the notion of a cycle - a defined periodic repetition of events. Yes the market does go through 'bull' and 'bear' phases but not in any way which we have been truly able to forsee. It always seems to me that dicussions about boom and recession are subject to a certain amount of confirmation bias. And as for consumer confidence - here we are truly into the territory of self fulfilling prophesies.
sr
sr
Last edited by speedrestriction; 5th Dec 2007 at 10:49. Reason: Because I is good at grammar
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don't know about 2008 or how it will be regarding flying jobs, but it is time to do something else than flying.
when looking at my friends who have spent a fortune in their aviation training.
some don't have a flying job, and some are still paying to work and are in financial troubles.Few have found a job which pay close of nothing.
it 's impossible to go in a serious airline like BA...
when looking at my friends who have spent a fortune in their aviation training.
some don't have a flying job, and some are still paying to work and are in financial troubles.Few have found a job which pay close of nothing.
it 's impossible to go in a serious airline like BA...
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: UK
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Boom in 2008!
It will all look brighter in the new year; these factors will help
Low Unemplyment (Ever)
Low Interest Rates (historically correct)
Shortage of housing stock - no big falls
Ageing pilot population (Retirements)
Lo-Co pilots getting jaded then retiring due negativity (Older ones)
Oil prices have eased
Happy Xmas
Low Unemplyment (Ever)
Low Interest Rates (historically correct)
Shortage of housing stock - no big falls
Ageing pilot population (Retirements)
Lo-Co pilots getting jaded then retiring due negativity (Older ones)
Oil prices have eased
Happy Xmas
I REALLY SHOULDN'T BE HERE
Posted by Dartagnan
Nonsense as usual Dartagnan. A friend of mine has just joined. Less of the hyperbole please.
sr
it 's impossible to go in a serious airline like BA...
sr
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Sussex-West
Age: 60
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Just wanted to say how important it is to think positive and follow your dream!! When I met my better half, he had an ink-wet US CPL and was trying to get a UK flying job.Laker had just collapsed so DC10 skippers were applying for night mail/parachute dropping jobs..it was a really tough market (1982ish) .He stuck with it, paying for the odd hour to keep current. Eventually he met someone who wanted a safety pilot for a C401, did that for 18months to get hours.Eventually offered F27 with Loganair and BCAL 1-11 on same day. Now a -400 skipper with BA.......as Kate Bush sang, "Don't give up!"Seasons' greetings.....NLA xxxxx