As the bases are on furlough etc until the end of December, the axe must first fall on HKG.

1- At least 20% pay cut for all contracts.
2- End of ARAP, replaced by KHPA - 20%
3- 6 months of further pay cut of at least 50% and work for 3 months with a choice of which three months.
4- Re-assess after the 6 months.

Bases:

From January a new contract with substantial salary and benefit reductions.
If you do not accept, then you are on 3 months notice to terminate your current contract or move to HKG on the new HKG terms.
This does not count as redundancy, unless the union rejects it in court.

I don't agree with the predictions of most in here, for what it's worth.

The usual pattern of catastrophizing... Since years always the same guys predict armageddon, usually something like the imminent fall of arapa, closure of all the bases, new contracts for all etc.

In the end it never happened, and I say it won't this time either.

Worst case, temporary cuts and layoffs in seniority order.

Well I see a pattern here too.
SWT doesn’t want any suggestions except those that SWT agrees with.

Here’s one, Sack all the flying crew and turn CX into an office block to specialise in fuel hedging.

All this fuel hedging and COVID trouble started when they removed the “stone” salt and pepper shakers!
i say bring back the stone S+P shakers and our feng shui will improve.

I see this as remarkably well balanced and a most likely scenario as well. With some extended voluntary leave schemes and potentially early outs thrown in the mix to right size the pilot body and have enough reserve when and if things pick back up.

How do you come to that conclusion Angel? SWT asked for suggestions, he/she just doesn’t agree with them. That’s all.

I suspect SWT will be very close to the mark.

No point in fretting about it all. There’s nothing the pilot body can do to influence any decision making from Swire so best try enjoying the time we have.

QUOTE=Angel 8;10893628]Well I see a pattern here too.
SWT doesn’t want any suggestions except those that SWT agrees with.

Here’s one, Sack all the flying crew and turn CX into an office block to specialise in fuel hedging.[/QUOTE]

The "solution" needs to be company-wide and not just pilot based. LIFO does not appear in any office/ground staff contract but it does in most pilot contracts. The company will honour to the letter the contracts signed in Hong Kong. I would guess most of us haven't read from cover to cover our contract. Please do so because this is what you will be asked to accept when the redundancy clause is applied or reject when a new contract is presented for you to sign. Be informed.

In the case of termination of employment due to redundancy, Company Officers will be considered homogeneously with all Officers listed on the CPA Common Redundancy Lists. Termination will apply in reverse order of date of joining as listed on the CPA Common Redundancy Lists, i.e. last in first out

Is that suppose to be a quote (verbatim) from which of the 20 COS or so :bored:

The suggestion I have for Kaiser Augustus is to lead by example: 50% salary reduction, ZERO bonus until all taxpayers loans are paid back in full, and take the MTR to work FFS, like the rest of us mortals!

The reason that base closures, new contracts, permanent reduction in workforce, etc, didn't happen in past is because all previous "ups an downs" were based on global events causing cyclical changes. Covid-19 is another one of those - though more devastating and longer lasting than most others. But... the real (not so hidden) dragon that is causing -- and will continue to cause -- former globally significant Hong Kong based companies to shrivel and sputter and eventually collapse, is not Covid. It's simply because PRC has decided that "Special Status" is no more. If you think most non-Chinese nationals who formerly chose to fly to or via HKG for business or pleasure will continue to do so, post Covid, you haven't been paying attention to the change in attitudes -- the anger, but more importantly the fear -- of Americans, Europeans, Aussies, Canadians, etc And that change in comfort level isn't going to be temporary, unless you believe that China's new attitude toward Hong Kong, and increased international bullying, is temporary. If so, I have an apartment in Happy Valley I'll sell you. .

Exactly Grizzly Bear, I posted something very similar in another forum.
It was followed by some interesting counter posts, basically all those in DENIAL.
HK is now just another mainland city, and CX just another mainland carrier, competing with the big players.
Nothing special anymore, and the tighter the thugs up north turn the screws, the more western companies and expats will leave, as well as locals who simply don’t see a future in HK anymore.
Watch the “SAR” part getting dropped soon.
Time to move on, see this very informative link below:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...l-security-law

Haha, good luck with that.

There're ppl in the company that are in DENIAL, saying things like we've been flying to China for so long, nth happened etc..... Also HKG-TPE is one of the biggest money-making routes in CX but the Taiwanese Gov has issued WARNING of 'DO NOT TRANSIT' through HK or risk getting detained... The activity between Taiwan and CCP military is having the time of their life as well. According to Taiwanese media, their military is now on high alert, apparently some jets are ready for deployment in 5 minutes. If the war does break out so close to home, I think the loss from the pandemic will seem like nth

I personally would sign up for that if the alternative was redundancy.

The die is set and the letters will be with the courier firm by now for delivery 2nd October. Good luck to all.

Same here..

It's less than decade away from being the largest economy in the world at which time HKG GDP will account for under 0.5% of China GDP. Hkg will prosper because it's smack in the middle of the GBA. Hong Kong has always prospered because of China, this won't change.

Base companies are just employment entities, they generate no income, cut the supply of funds off from the parent, they become insolvent, employees become creditors.

As for LIFO, it will be a 2 step process, new COS21 with a similar restructuring clause to COS18, it will be a productivity based contract so everyone effectively goes on SLS (base pay with no productivity pay). They can then restructure who they want then want in any order.

These are not original ideas, it is MBA 101, "Creating Value Through Corporate Restructuring". The only people guaranteed to have a job when the music stops is the people making the cuts, they signed their NDAs months ago

The time for suggestions is over. The HKAOA has decided it's time to start discussing the issue 6 months after the boat has sailed and 2 weeks before it's negotiating position is annulled by CX. Too little far too late. Like picking up survivors from the Titanic and saying "can we talk iceberg avoidance please". The die has been cast and the company is merely dotting the "i's" and crossing the "t's" on their way ahead.

The only question is when will they announce it and when will it take effect. As for the HKAOA. You do the maths. It's toast.