There was an ex-CX FO who ran these numbers. They were so discouraging that he left ASAP for Delta and is now a captain there. CX is a very young pilot group. If you think retirements are going to catapult you up the seniority list, think again! Resignations? Perhaps, we shall see. Of course, if enough resign, there won’t be an airline to fly for anymore.

This thread is an eye opener. I was thinking of applying for a SO position and I might still do it, but it would only be gain some widebody experience. I will try to follow how things evolve at CX and possibly apply in future as FO and consider CX as a long term career option in the unlikely event time to command reduces to less than 10 years. I want career progression.

Stay away! SO time is NOT widebody experience. It’s no experience at all. As for time to command, it’s above 11 years now and heading UP rapidly. There is almost no movement presently.

Thanks for the hint. I might consider it in a couple of years when I might qualify for a DEFO – depending on time to command trend.

Time to command trend only going up

It’s evident that they have NO plans to grow the airline, but that any growth will be on the KA side, or shrinking the CX side. Yes, SO time will be rapidly growing PAST 6 years, doesn’t count for anything, and I don’t think time to command will come down below 12 years, and could go as high as 15. Hiring needs on a global scale are so good right now, I can’t imagine why anyone would want to come to CX.

Plain pilot: since you are on this thread, I assume you read the very first post that said
, so I wonder where you are plucking "go as high as 15 years" from?

I assume also that you read the thread as well! There were numbers that were sprayed all over the board, 17, 17+, 30.3 (had to laugh on that one, c’mon, .3???) as I assume you read. The number that was landed on at the end was 17+, as I assume you read. 15 isn’t that far off of 17+. I’massuming you have basic math skills. I’m assuming you’re reading this too.

The “plucking” of the number comes from my intuition that Cathay will not be a viable employer if they are sitting at 30.3 years to command. What I’m considering, is that even as we’ve seen resignations increase at an amazing rate for this airline, I believe that they will only increase, and increase among senior FO’s, which will affect the upgrade time. Not dramatically, but 30.3 is “off reservation.” IMHO.

Now, I’m assuming we are on the same team, and the reason we’re on this thread is we want as many people as we can to know that CX isn’t the employer they used to be, and we’re desperately hoping enough folks leave before we do to get our kind employers attention and get us some things sorted out. Oh wait, I’ve already got apps out as that hope is shot. Good luck.

I’m assuming you’ll need it. Pluck up your courage, mate.

So let’s say you are going to take 17 years to command, you then need to get to Senior Captain 7 level before you get the $30+ HKPA. That is 26 years at Cathay before you can afford a 3 bedroom apartment!

For a new joiner, 17-20 years to command sounds about right to me. DFO has stated growth rate is targeted at between 3-4% PA. Numero Crunchero is correct, airline has been static over past 3 years.

Assuming a command comes around every time the airline doubles in size (and yes, that is a conservative assumption - if number of Captains required is less than half of total aircrew, airline would need to more than double in size), then command would be around 18 years (4% growth)-24 years (3% growth).

So 20 years + is probably a good ball park figure to use for a guy joining now.

Thats not what CX are telling guys when they interview them........

You are right, Voyager. But I think it's actually worse than that because you (accurately) used AT's growth rate forecasts!

Surely she can't be telling the truth on this, but lying on everything else?

Projecting time to command for a 2018 new joiner is nearly impossible, especially for a time horizon extending that far out (15-20+ years). There are so many unknowns. Will there be growth? If so, at what rate? Will there be contraction? Yes, this is often rumoured and consistent with many 77W going back to lessors and a possible spin-off of all or some of the cargo operation. Will the airline be sold off to the Mainland or some other bidder? Or will it just go out of business altogether and the assets sold off? How many will resign and retire early? This will largely be driven by hiring at other airlines. Also, many of the NJers now have no chance to pass the command course at the current standard. Will the standards go down for captains as they have for FOs and SOs?

So many questions, so few answers. Standard CX! Uncertainty abounds and drives good employees away... It could be such a great job but simply isn’t. The lack of a true seniority system and roster bidding/control makes CX a ridiculous outlier in the airline industry. Change or fail! It really is that simple. Actions, not words...

Don’t worry, soon you will upgrade in just a matter of months with direct entry Capt. The clowns on the third floor will decide not one FO is worthy enough to command a A-330 to TPE.
Doubt it??? Just watch it happen.

or try lucky air

The vast majority of commands in the future will be via the Dragon stream and it will be less than 2 years to command for the foreseeable future.
KA is about to be fully integrated into CX and all the A330’s transferred to their AOC as they increase their pilot numbers via recruiting and secondment from CX.
The inbound narrow body replacement/expansion will also fuel the growth and quick command progression. Some will argue that they don’t have the training capacity and that the command course pass rate is abysmal, but that will be “altered” and adjusted by CX. The KA management pilots are just as eager to feather their own nests as the CX management pilots and SSI’s.

While the above makes sense, I have yet to hear anything to this effect from the third floor or otherwise. How do you know this?

While I have no reason to doubt Farman's knowledge on this matter, I suspect that our 3rd floor would be the last to know, so you not hearing anything from there is probably not significant.

So how will that work when they seem determined to drive KA into CC and a training ban too?

Like everything else, it will come as a complete 'surprise' to our management.

depends what fleet you are on, will probably become difficult with the new rostering program they will be using soon. Putting a single day of reserve in the middle of a block of days off so you can't go anywhere