F/O for life
 

Want to know your time to command ( if you pass the course that is)?

Simply divide the people ahead of you in seniority by the expected upgrades per year.

Example : Join now equals 1600 divided by 49 (upgrades 2011, and that was a good year) = 30 years

:yuk::yuk::yuk:

Rounding down just makes it sound better:

1600/49 = 32.6 years

Gee Whizzz
 

Boy-O-Boy 711!!

Your maths is awesome. Seriously.

You'll get a quicker command for sure, what with that mathematical acuity of yours.

:cool:

Hey Einstein
Are there going to be no retirements in your 32.6 years. Or resignations? Or sickness?
11 years is bad but 32 is plain wrong.:=

You ain't no Einstein
 

Hey Arfur, are you thick or something? No where did he mention any connection to retirements. This is simply about the training department's ability to train captains.

They have admitted in writing a total of 49 successful commands in 2011, which, as 711 points out, is a good year. Ok, it's not their absolute best year ever, but there is an upper limit on training capacity.

For example, doubling last year's total to 98 would bring it down to about 16 years, still not a quick command. However, 98 is not physically possible.

Unless of course more people volunteer for training......

They are still calling for more training volunteers. If they want you to do 30% more work, maybe they should pay 30% extra, rather than 10%.

They could switch to a normal command course and not the fiasco that happens now. How long does it take and how many sectors/checks to change seats? Odd at CX when it comes to command courses.

No need to be rude Broadband just 'cos it's anonymous.
No I don't think I'm thick but you have proved my point really. 16 is a long way from 32 isn't it??
Reducing the ludicrous length of the so called 'course' would be a brilliant idea so it obviously won't happen!

Very good point sloppy, having done 3 command courses with normal companies, I can tell you it generally takes 2 months from woah to go.
Of course, that's just your " average " jet command, you are not a qualified shuttle commander after a " meagre " 2 months ;)

What was the average number of upgrades/year within the last 10 years ? 20 years ? 30 years?

Why is it, that the massive expansion/early retirements/ sickness etc etc is always something that is ABOUT to happen, but never does??

And some of you call ME naive...

Retirements are already included in the above calculation of the current rate of upgrades.

Retirement of a captain may create a captain position for the next FO, as does an increase in the total number of aircraft, but vacancies do not create captains. It is an upgraded FO that creates a captain.

At the current rate of 49 upgrades per year, with no change in manning levels or training rates and assuming that 1600 SOs and FOs ahead of that last pilot on the list, it will take 32.6 years for the last pilot on the list to complete his upgrade.

Besides the minor variables affecting this estimate a little bit, what's wrong with this calculation of the current time to command?

Then there is the age 70

Between seniority numbers 700-799 there are 20 FOs. Odds are that these guys will not want / will not do / have failed a command. So assuming 20% of FOs never achieve command within CX despite having the required seniority, then that reduces the TTC for anyone behind them. In addition, you are assuming that none of the FOs ahead of you will be retiring pre command. There are a lot of 'late joiners' in CX and again this will reduce the TTC for the man who 'hangs in there'. On top of that there are probably a number of Freighter capts in the group and they will not be counted as 'doing a command' in the stats.

Baywatcher ..... stop being a tease!!

"Courses Planned"
 

What seems to be lost in some of these calculations is not so much the command fail rate (an area in which we are clearly an industry leading airline), but the necessity to double count courses when an unsuccessful trainee has his/her 2nd course 18 mths - 2 years later.

The pass rate fluctuates over time because of many factors, sometimes it's 50%, sometimes it's almost 100%, but let's take the 20% alluded to above, and assume not all of those people want, or are given, a 2nd go, so let's say on average over the years, 10% of first time applicants do a second course.

That means a new joiner today isn't waiting for 1600 command courses to transpire before he gets his, it actually means he is waiting for 1760 course.

Some of my numbers are only my best estimates, and any more exact details would be appreciated, but I'm sure you understand the concept.

That may become true by June 2012, for someone who joined in 2000, but as of Dec 31st, 2011, and using 2011's upgrade rate, a new joiner will have to wait 32.6 years for his upgrade to captain, as there are 1600 pilots ahead of him and only 49 per year are being upgraded.

The big variable over the next two years for command timing, is how many based FOs are going to come back for commands.

I would guess a significant number of FOs on bases are now nearing the 2 year mark from commands (top 200 seniority of FOs give or take),

Its a tough guess, if there wasnt this double tax issue hanging over their heads i would guess that most if not all would turn down commands and stay on the base especially as its obvious that command bases are a thing of the past for all but the most senior.

But double tax does change the game, how many will comeback to HK?? any thoughts. I know the AKL boys would be mad especially with their new tax ruling. and if i was able to get an FO slot down there i would be content to stay an FO but how many of the others will come back?

Silberfuchs, you must notice yourself the irony when announcing the planned numbers as facts? Also I respectfully disagree with your altered 2011 statistic. Passed commands are those in 2011 and not beyond. ( or you substract those who started their course in 2010, see what I mean?)

The important thing now is in my opinion :

How do we live with the fact of a very very long time to upgrade?

I think it is about time to talk about increasing F/O yearly stages AND the subsequental transition to a higher entry level on the command pay scale.

A quick look at payscales shows that we currently have 16 paygrades from joining the company (as an SO) prior to command. Given that we currently take 12/13 years to get to command, is a demand for more paygrades jumping the gun a little? Or was this whole discussion just an excuse to rattle the "gimme more pay or else" brigade?:D

What about the hundreds of very experienced F/O's ( many of them former CPTs) who joined as DFO?

Is your lack of empathy maybe related to the fact that you got your command already? After how many years?

No I have empathy. I have been in similar positions of stagnating pay. I just felt that we were taking a long slow winding road to raise this subject. Do I remember correctly that last year's paydeal addressed this issue somewhat? I guess the situation gets worse though as COS08 individuals will not get bypass as an additional paygrade. My personal situation is immaterial.

Damnnn,
 

Just think we should be realistic. I was so shocked reading 49 as well. And yet 2011 was not the worst year,especially considering how tough the coming years might become(economic downturn etc etc).

But guess we are all looking at the wrong part of the equation. We should think of the future. It is now more clear than ever that unfortunately our management don't have any ambition for expansion,they want to earn the big bucks as is and conservatively. All machines coming in the next 6-7 years are replacements and we don't hear of any new or any planned destinations.

So the sad part of this story is that there is no expansion thus no real need for any massive commands. Unfortunately the commands in the next 10 years probably will be determined only by retirements and I cross my fingers that age 67 doesn't pop up anytime in the next 10 years. So guess 30+ years to command is pretty realistic.

Damnn want to blame someone but can't. If this is the company's growth rate than this is the company's growth rate. Question is now, HOW IMPORTANT IS YOUR CAREER FOR YOU. Wanna swap money for career? Or sit on that seat for the bucks.

Truth just hurts man......Good Luck guys.

before the inclusion of freighter only oasis/asl/dragon air age 65 commands were at aprrox 81/2 to 9 years

So even with 65 (retirement) simple maths would add 10years.
But not that simple as there were many pilots amongst this group who were already over 55 and even over 60.

Not all pilots will go to 65
And not all will stay due double tax basing fiasco and the newer generation who think anyone in management is an idiot.

Currently commencing command course is heading to the 12 year point by june.
Another factor affecting this is the joining rate in the previous years ahead of you.
in the period 2000 -11/2001 (i.e. 9/11) the rate was high so from mid 2001 to the end of 2001 you should anticipate late 2013 or early 2014.
So heading to 13 years just with the joining rate impact add in 6-8 years increase purely for 65 and time to command should extend out to 15 -19 years.
As 2011 courses only produced 65 commands assuming the remaining 16 pass.
At most that can be increased up to 90.

Ciggie packet maths find out who is starting in particular month see how far behind you are take 30% off due base not suitable divide by 75 would give you an idea +/- by 8-12 months.
Lots of variables

turnandburn,

Repeat The FO's who got promoted in 2011 joined in 2000, and ended up being captains in their 12th year with the company. This is not the current rate, this is the rate for those in their 12th year with the company, as they benefited from earlier expansion and younger retirement ages of those ahead of them.

Repeat: The new joiner in 2011, at assuming a rate of 49 new captains per year and 1600 pilots head of him, will have to wait 32.6 years.

Repeat: The calendar year in which a command course begins has no effect on the number of promotions in a calendar year. The 16 you say began their training in 2011 will count in 2012, just as those who began in 2010 but finished in 2011 counted as new captains in 2011, not in 2010. Beginning a course is irrelevant: Finishing the course and being promoted is what creates a new captain, and in 2011 there were 49.

Repeat: While there are variables (training rates, retirement rates, etc.) and other factors (FO's on bases staying on bases, failures, expansion/reduction etc.) the point is that the current rate as of 2011, which is known after all the variables and factors are included for that whole year, is 49/year, and with 1600 pilots ahead of a new joiner, and that works out to 32.6 years from joining to promotion to captain. Even if the rate unrealistically doubles and is sustained forever at 98/year and nothing else changes, that would mean 16.3 years for a new joiner. But the current time to command for a new joiner is 32.6 years.

So, for those who joined in 2000, it is around 11-12 years, for those who joined in 2011, it is around 32 years, and for everyone in between, it varies between 11 and 32 years depending on how soon they joined after those in 2000.

Repeat: No it isn't. You acknowledge the 'variables' but do not include them in your calculation. It is not so much important that 49 captains were generated in 2011, what is important is ...what was the seniority number of the first captain and then (looking at the same list) what was the senioriy number of the last captain promoted in 2011. The difference between these two numbers is the rate of consumption of seniority numbers ahead of any one individual. This is the number you should be looking at. I confess that unless you are a seniority geek this number is much harder to obtain.

So as of Dec 31st, 2011, and despite 49 promotions in 2011, you're saying there were more than 49 promotions in 2011, because of their seniority numbers, right?

The variables are included in 1600/49, because those 49 are the end result in 2011.

Repeat: 32.6 is the current time to command for a new joiner as of right now, until the next promotion or the next variable or factor changes, all of which can change the rate either way.

Repeat: 32.6 is not the current rate for someone who joined in 2001-2010, or who will join in 2012 and beyond.

:rolleyes::ugh:

Number 49 capt as of 31 Dec 11 ..... on 1 Jan 11 he looked at the seniority list and saw who was last promoted ..... call him 'Number 1'. Number 1 was more that 49 places ahead of Number 49. So Number 49 being in possesion of a crystal ball from RH said ... "bugger me, no promotion in 2011 then" .... but he was wrong, why?

Agree only 49 completed commands in 2011

I was more interested in estimating when current F/O s will commence commands in the next 5 years beyond that, variations really become to large.
personally more interested what i time i would start.
5 years and beyond is speculation at best.

However the trend does not look good.
maybe plot it against the price of gold

Gotcha to bang your head! But yes, there are more than 49 seniority numbers between 2011's first and last new captains, and I thought we figured out that will vary too.

Yes, 32.6 assumes every FO does his course and gets promoted. Wasn't that implied in the variables and factors thing? What if 10 more planes go to Air China this year and 10 more to Air Hong Kong next year and 10 more to Dragonair the year after that, and the price of fuel quintuples and air travel falls by 75%, how does that affect the rate?

OK, so let's assume 25% of FO's refuse/fail/quit the course: 24.5 years

Or how about 50%: 16.3 years.

Amended Repeat: In general, with plenty of unknowns and no way to predict the future, and lots of variables and factors that come and go that change the rate in both directions at random times, the time will vary but generally increase from approximately 11 to 32 years depending how soon after 2000 that someone joined, with the worst case being the most recent joiners...in general. :ok:

....Emirates: 5 years to command. (and regardless of the actual number....it's years less than at CX).

Ohhh, let's go to Emirates then, it sounds like an awesome airline:hmm:

Let me have a go:

How many places are there between the first command in 2011 and the 49th? Let's say there are 100, that means the company had to screen, offer, assess, train etc in order to produce 49 commands. Let's assume 49 commands out of every 100 is the natural rate for this company.

If the target is 98 commands a year, we can then assume the front 200 FOs on the list (excluding those who have been at the top of the list for a long time and are likely to stay there for whatever reason, with due respect) will get a shot. From this simplistic scenario no 1601 will be in that batch of 200 in the 8th year. But over this 8 year period, how many of the 102 who remain an FO after their first attempt/assessment will come back for their second attempt?

Let X be the average number of FOs between the first new command to the last in any year.
Let C be the average number of new commanders each year over the next 20 years.
Let N be the number of FOs who make a second attempt when the time comes and let's assume that to be 2 years after their first attempt.
(let's assume all FOs succeed on their second attempt)
Let T be the year since joining the seniority list when a person would begin the command process ie assessment, accepting or turning down a course and beginning the actual course.

T = (1600 / X) + [(1600/X - 2) * N]/C

An example: 200 seniority numbers produces 98 new commanders, the company targets 98 new commanders a year for the next 20 years. All first time failures will have a second attempt and passes.

T = (1600/200) + [(1600/200 - 2) * 102]/98

= 9 yrs

Obviously, this number is not consistent with the reality. The reasons are in the assumptions: 200 and 98 are likely to be higher than average. If we use 49 commanders out of 80 and target 80 commanders a year, both not difficult to imagine, it would give T = 20 yrs 2 mths

Any improvement on estimates for X, N and C welcome!

Yet another way of looking at it: Everyone joins an airline at the age of 20 and progresses through to becoming a capt but then retires at age 65. The airline has a fixed ratio of capt to total pilots .... this ratio in CX as of the last seniority list is 998/2509 (not including those not yet allocated a seniority number). Thus as everyone progresses through their career with no airline expansion taking place and a steady rate of recruitment and retirement everyone will be made a capt after 24.1 years of service. They will then remain a capt for 15.9 years.

This scenario is pessimistic in a number of its assumptions (averge join age is prob higher, leaving age is definately lower, expansion may be occuring in fits and starts, the crew ratio driven by economic needs may well fall etc ...) However, it still comes out with a better number that the 'boundary' defined by the OP.

The above model may well provide a 'better boundary', but reasonable prediction needs to take place if the aim is to forcast how long I must remain an FO. If you throw your hands up in the air and say "there are way to many unknowns" and still come out with silly figures you might as well not take part in the predictive exercise in the first place.

Yea but.....
 

All great guessing, but...

As it stands now many senior FOs are stayng on bases. This will not happen as much in the future.

My prediction is that the 50% uptake being suggested will drop and most if not all FOs of the future will put their hand up for command. Historically the failure rate on initial courses varied as high as 30%. However the failure rate on second courses was much lower maybe 5%.

So you need to adjust the rate accordingly.

If you join today, 1500 slots before command. 80 commands for 5 years, then slow down, 40-50 commands for 5 more years then bigger retirements and 60 per year after that. Add in 20% loss rate and you get 480 no.s / years 1-5, then 240 in years 6-10, and 72 every year after that. So join today = 20 years time to command

Big what if no expansion ? I don't see much in the next ten years. So 20 years may be CONSERVATIVE !

FG

My 2c.

fG

Regarding widespread hopes of a possibility to jump the line:

In Europe there are only 10(!) guys or so below the 900 mark...

No, all the variables are not included. For example some of those 1600 will leave to go to other jobs or retire for health or other reasons, some will fail the upgrade or don't want it.

We just said that.

First of all, you all should shut up and wait for Numero Crunchero to come to the rescue.

Secondly, most of you sound like the types who get all bent out of shape when someone doesn't say, "Clear right" when he's taxiing eastbound on H approaching H7 for a left turn!

All your bickering about 16 vs 32 years is so irrelevant! By that time, CX will be a Chinese airline. If you think the Cat A/B/C/D crap is laughable now, just wait until upgrades are solely offered based on subjective evaluations. By the time your 16-32 year upgrade comes along, seniority will be completely irrelevant.

Thread over!:yuk:

Oval, I will not comment on your style and debating skills, as they are obvious.

But let me explain to you just this:

This is a discussion about a best-case scenario, not a worst-case scenario.

Of course there might be even more bad news to come, there could be another SARS, a major oil crisis, hard landing of China followed by political instability,maybe even a war in Iran or in Korea, nobody knows (except you, of course)

Thread reopened.

What exactly was Oval's contribution to a "forum" there .....

.... Oh yes ..... NOTHING

Sorry to open old wounds regarding ASL, but I know of several DEC on that scheme. Whilst having considerable previous Command time and being DEC, they were, nonetheless, subjected to the ruthless 6 month course. CX, essentially, gave them the upgrade course. Equally, I know of several F/Os, hired under that scheme, who were subjected to a six month square bashing & some, failed. My question being, why is CX quite so ruthless ? The attrition rate appears high & complicates the 'Time to Command' debate. There is something terribly wrong with the Selection procedure if lots of people, subsequently fail the course, whatever the course might be. In house, Right to Left should be very straighforward when dealing with a known entity, a Company FO with established track record. Cripes, I am glad that I failed all four attempts at Selection. I would clearly have failed the course. A rare, GOOD selection decision. Last attempt was DEC, ASL but after a few mates got seriously harmed in local pubs, I was glad to get the one line reject letter.