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Special Status of Hong Kong

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Special Status of Hong Kong

Old 29th May 2020, 23:38
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Special Status of Hong Kong

So Iím reading (while under CV19 hotel arrest in LA) that due to Chinaís law changes in Hong Kong, the USA is going to treat Hong Kong as part of mainland China. As I understand it, Hong Kong acts as a go between for trade between China and the rest of the world because it has a western style legal system which protects contracts and agreements signed by international corporations. This changes everything right? If this is the future for Hong Kong, big corporations will pull out quick smart.

Its a huge disaster right?
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Old 30th May 2020, 01:38
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Its a huge disaster right?

Understatement if there ever was one.
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Old 30th May 2020, 01:43
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Definitely a big blow for Hong Kong, but not devastating in my opinion.

China will remain the most important market of the future. Trump is fuming about China on Twitter, but if you look at the actual numbers you will see that trade with China under him has actually increased, not decreased. Additionally, Trump will not be able to form any alliance against China with other Western countries, he simply burned too many bridges. And only an alliance of the united West would be powerful enough to force China into negotiations.

China seems determined and willing to accept short-term trade difficulties with the US in exchange of increasing influence in Hong Kong. That is the reality.

Possibly Hong Kong will lose more market share to Singapore or Shanghai, probably lose citizen rights, probably lose credibility and be less attractive for expats.

But in my opinion, Hong Kong will remain a very important trade and financial centre. It doesn't have to be perfect, just better than Shanghai or Shenzen. And the market is simply too big to be served just by Shanghai alone anyway.

Even if Hong Kong will shift to a more Asian-focused role, the numbers are breathtaking. China has a population that is four times the size of the US, Asia 15 times. The EU, biggest trade blok in the world, will not impose any barriers, possibly will even sign a major trade deal in October this year.

Markets in Asia will continue to evolve and trade especially within Asia will grow strongly, and so will Hong Kong.

Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 30th May 2020 at 03:30.
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Old 30th May 2020, 03:24
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At least property prices will go down with 300000 bnoís going to the U.K.
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Old 30th May 2020, 05:05
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Originally Posted by mattyj View Post
So Iím reading (while under CV19 hotel arrest in LA) that due to Chinaís law changes in Hong Kong, the USA is going to treat Hong Kong as part of mainland China. As I understand it, Hong Kong acts as a go between for trade between China and the rest of the world because it has a western style legal system which protects contracts and agreements signed by international corporations. This changes everything right? If this is the future for Hong Kong, big corporations will pull out quick smart.

Its a huge disaster right?
Yikes. Yes this is bad, I suspect there will be some back pedalling by both sides at some stage but the consequences could be significant for airlines and local economy if not.
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Old 30th May 2020, 21:33
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Originally Posted by Oasis View Post
At least property prices will go down with 300000 bnoís going to the U.K.
If you check the governmentís housing index in HK, prices have made some healthy gains this year. well , thats upto March . The index is still around 300, so I donít see much decline there from last year.

Once business returns, the index could well exceed 400 within the year.

A friend had their village house in SK listed for 20 mil last few months. Theyíve just resisted it at 28 mil . Thats a big gain , and they may increase it again if the get a decent offer.
Mad, but true.
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Old 31st May 2020, 01:14
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Hong Kong as we know it is finished. The coming battle of wills between the totalitarian CCP and the determined US G will leave HK as the beaten victim in the middle. There is really no hope for the future, as Xi perceives HK as a threat to his power, and is not willing to allow that threat to continue. HK will be crushed. Don't doubt it. Its golden era is over.
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Old 31st May 2020, 01:50
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Hey the Commies are coming ! The commies are coming !

Oh.....they're here.

Ya.....wouldn't plan on much of a future. Communism turns everything it touches to shiite. Perhaps a very few get rich but all those folks in the middle who used to prosper -- Off to the gulags and daily indoctrination sessions from devil Mao.

Well, I guess that's that. As they say in the gold biz looks like this vein has played out.
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Old 31st May 2020, 07:43
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Kahaha sorry but that story is complete bs, the market has not improved enough for your friends house to go from 20 to 28m but hey its PPRuNe
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Old 31st May 2020, 09:59
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He didnít say it sold for $28 mil..he just said they listed it for $28 mil. You can buy my house in NZ for $2 mil if you want..and if you want, I have a bridge I can sell you too..??
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 07:41
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I've been to HKG many times, I just love going there but if I have to apply for a visa to go there in future then I will flag it and cross it off my visiting list. Seems like Big Brother up the road is intent of circumventing the autonomy that's supposed to be in force until 2047. This latest law is just the starting point. MARK MY WORDS !!!!!!!! I feel sorry for you all sadly the special status of Hong Kong is not going to be worth a piece of #%^&*
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 13:26
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Big Brother ??

Originally Posted by ozziekiwi View Post
I've been to HKG many times, I just love going there but if I have to apply for a visa to go there in future then I will flag it and cross it off my visiting list. Seems like Big Brother up the road is intent of circumventing the autonomy that's supposed to be in force until 2047. This latest law is just the starting point. MARK MY WORDS !!!!!!!! I feel sorry for you all sadly the special status of Hong Kong is not going to be worth a piece of #%^&*
Seems like you have the EXACT same problem right in your own back yard with queen Lucinda stripping Kiwis and others of their rights...Mark My Words, it's just the starting point with the only difference being, y'all voting her government in !! Enjoy !
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 13:43
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Originally Posted by Oasis View Post
At least property prices will go down with 300000 bnoís going to the U.K.
Not necessarily. These BNOs normally are high earners. As long as there is money to make there, they won't leave.
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 13:59
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"IF" ???

"IF" threatened ???

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dipl...kongs-autonomy
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Old 3rd Jun 2020, 03:16
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Purely speculative, but I ask myself why there is a HKD and a CNY if there is no special status?
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Old 3rd Jun 2020, 04:13
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https://www.regulationasia.com/us-sc...ng-ipo-market/


The dollar peg allows IPO's in Hong Kong to generate USD. Shenzen and Shanghai can't do that.
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Old 3rd Jun 2020, 04:28
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Ha Ha

Originally Posted by Sam Ting Wong View Post
https://www.regulationasia.com/us-sc...ng-ipo-market/


The dollar peg allows IPO's in Hong Kong to generate USD. Shenzen and Shanghai can't do that.
For all those who think HK has "something special" to offer, it DID at one time.. That time is over and whatever it "had" is running down the nullah in full view of every company now thinking of relocating..
That includes the once masters of CX.. Their malls and airplanes are empty and the red menace from the North has thrown their Royal Flush on the table.. Game over !!
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Old 3rd Jun 2020, 05:12
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You don't understand.

Hong Kong doesn' t have to be special as in perfect. It only needs to be better than Shanghai.

Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 3rd Jun 2020 at 05:47.
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Old 3rd Jun 2020, 06:03
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Originally Posted by Sam Ting Wong View Post
You don't understand.

Hong Kong doesn' t have to be special as in perfect. It only needs to be better than Shanghai.
No. It has to be better than Singapore...
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Old 3rd Jun 2020, 06:12
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I think this is wrong.

China will never allow the main stock market of Chinese companies to be outside of the country.

1.4 Billion people will always have a financial centre in their own country, probably multiple ones. 400 million Europeans have London, Paris, Dublin, Frankfurt, Milan, Zurich and Geneva.

If you look at the numbers you will see the difference. Just compare the IPO volume of Singapore with Hong Kong. By market cap HK is five times bigger than Singapore, four times bigger volume in IPO's. Likely, this will increase with more Chinese companies looking for second listings in HK.

Additionally, Singapore will never provide foreign companies the same level of market access as Hong Kong.

PS and for the human rights aspect, try to protest in Singapore. you would last about 2 minutes

Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 3rd Jun 2020 at 06:58.
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