Definitely a big blow for Hong Kong, but not devastating in my opinion.
China will remain the most important market of the future. Trump is fuming about China on Twitter, but if you look at the actual numbers you will see that trade with China under him has actually increased, not decreased. Additionally, Trump will not be able to form any alliance against China with other Western countries, he simply burned too many bridges. And only an alliance of the united West would be powerful enough to force China into negotiations.
China seems determined and willing to accept short-term trade difficulties with the US in exchange of increasing influence in Hong Kong. That is the reality.
Possibly Hong Kong will lose more market share to Singapore or Shanghai, probably lose citizen rights, probably lose credibility and be less attractive for expats.
But in my opinion, Hong Kong will remain a very important trade and financial centre. It doesn't have to be perfect, just better than Shanghai or Shenzen. And the market is simply too big to be served just by Shanghai alone anyway.
Even if Hong Kong will shift to a more Asian-focused role, the numbers are breathtaking. China has a population that is four times the size of the US, Asia 15 times. The EU, biggest trade blok in the world, will not impose any barriers, possibly will even sign a major trade deal in October this year.
Markets in Asia will continue to evolve and trade especially within Asia will grow strongly, and so will Hong Kong.
Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 30th May 2020 at 03:30.