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CX Shares slip below HK8

Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

CX Shares slip below HK8

Old 3rd Aug 2020, 05:51
  #61 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: The Forbidden City
Posts: 38
Excellent post, señor
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Old 3rd Aug 2020, 05:57
  #62 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 410
Spoken like a true stoic, NC.
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Old 3rd Aug 2020, 06:45
  #63 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: York International
Posts: 626
Best FH post I’ve seen for a long time NC. Reasoned and pragmatic.
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Old 3rd Aug 2020, 09:49
  #64 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Krug departure, Merlot transition
Posts: 558
NC, would you please stop injecting reason, logic and rationality into the discussion.

Normal service will resume shortly.


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Old 4th Aug 2020, 02:53
  #65 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Here
Posts: 462
All A ans B scalers really need to look in the mirror and say is it right that Im bleeding my company dry,
Is it right that you are bleeding my oxygen supply dry?
Sorry snowflake but I can't afford to retire on my pride or moral conscience either.
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Old 7th Aug 2020, 06:43
  #66 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 512
First time back on FH for a long time.....

Totally agree with NC...He and I have been on this train for nearly 30 years so its no surprise that we share the same views.

It’s sad watching the world fall apart, most people are losing their minds. People living in fear of expressing an opinion that might incite the mob.

The ancient Greeks, the Romans, the Byzantines...Western evolution through the ages brought down to rubble over a virus with a 99.5% survival rate. Heroes of the ages would be dumbstruck watching the Karens and Kens of the modern world shut down the global economy, while screaming for everyone to wear a mask. Future historians will marvel at how easily it was all brought down.

In case anyone hasn’t yet considered it...the question surely must be...what happens when the next flue virus arrives, and the one after that?

I’ll likely be in a retirement home, please just wheel me closer to the dinner table.
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Old 7th Aug 2020, 07:01
  #67 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 52
Posts: 31
You are massively simplifying and overlooking the real issue, Raven.

The crucial point never was the mortality rate, it is the hospitalisation rate that is the problem. Without measurements against the spread, no health system in any country could cope. Millions would require care within a few weeks. Capacity limits would be breached instantly, and nobody could get hospital or medical help anymore, not for any other illness, nor for any accident, birth or prevention.

And this in return would result in casualties much higher than your 0.5%. People would lay siege to hospitals, parents would beg for help for their children, it would be an absolute catastrophic and apocalyptic scenario.

A Scientific estimate by Imperial is e.g. 40 million deaths without any preventive measurements, and that doesn't even include capacity issues.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/1964...ave-caused-40/

Naturally, this in turn would lead to economic collapse as well. The idea we all would happily carry on while morgues overflow is of course absurd.

Imagine stepping out of your door knowing that no medical help will be available no matter what. Mind you, in a world with billions of infected people around you. Would you go to work or shop? On a business trip or holiday? Would there still be police in the street, a fireman, a soldier, a flight attendant willing to work? Would the workers in power stations carry on? In hospitals, in care homes? And also good luck with your amazon order, I am sure the delivery man on minimum wage will risk his life for you.

Now, whether there would have been better strategies time will tell, but it is not as simple as you suggest. Not even close.
For some reason, a lot of pilots seem to always fall for simple and radical solutions, no problem is too complex, we know it all.

Sigh.

Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 7th Aug 2020 at 08:14.
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Old 7th Aug 2020, 08:34
  #68 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 512
Sam,
At the beginning of this pandemic, when we knew little or nothing about it, yes we certainly needed to do all that you suggest. To do otherwise would have been irresponsible. However, we’ve now gone far beyond flattening the curve in order for our hospitals to cope...do you remember when that was the stated intention and goal?

Now that the curve has been flattened, and now that we understand the threat better, we would be wise to tailor our efforts and concentrate our focus on protecting those under the greatest threat: the aged and those with comorbidities.

Most of our hospitals are now empty. Hospital staff are being layed off in some places. People are foregoing all manner of other medical needs, cancer or preventative care...what will the consequences of that be? Combined with a global economic shutdown, our current trajectory is simply not sustainable. It doesn’t matter how smart some people might think that they are. On our current course the unintended consequences will overwhelm us at some point. And make no mistake, that point is not far. This thread is an example of the consequences to come, massive job losses and economic ruin are being anticipated.

A continued shut down of all the sectors of our economic life and individual freedoms will eventually result in wide scale disaster. Now is the time for us to take stock in what we’ve learned and begin to fine tune our strategy. While we wait for a possible vaccine or other therapeutics we must begin to carefully open up our economies while focusing on protecting those that are most vulnerable to the virus. For example, the amazon driver need not risk his life for me, but those people that have contracted the virus and have the antibodies should be allowed to return to their jobs. Instead people under little or no risk of contracting the virus are ordered to remain indoors under penalty of law.

Instead of a nuanced and intelligent approach, all I see and hear are people effectively advocating for an infinite shutdown. There’s even talk of people rejecting a vaccine until it’s efficacy has been proven beyond all doubt. Talk about simple and radical?

You’re right though, time will tell. And it’s judgement will not be kind.

As I alluded to earlier, at my point in life’s journey I won’t be the one most impacted...although I live in fear for my children and grand children. Just wheel this old fool closer to the dinner table.

Last edited by raven11; 7th Aug 2020 at 08:46.
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Old 7th Aug 2020, 08:59
  #69 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 52
Posts: 31
Agreed in principle, Raven.

I would argue most of your suggestions are in progress, but sure, possibly we went too far. Or not far enough, China ironically seems to be better. I am for sure not claiming to have the answer. 👍


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Old 7th Aug 2020, 16:41
  #70 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Polar Route
Posts: 1
Originally Posted by Sam Ting Wong View Post
Agreed in principle, Raven.

I would argue most of your suggestions are in progress, but sure, possibly we went too far. Or not far enough, China ironically seems to be better. I am for sure not claiming to have the answer. 👍
Anyone believing statistics of any kind from Mainland China needs to have their head examined.

One statistic I do believe is that 53% of COVID deaths come from 0.6% of the global population. Perhaps those and persons with known co-morbidities need to be isolated while the rest of us get on with it utilizing masks, social distancing, ventilation, cleaning, etc.

Of course, anyone wanting to self isolate in fear of the virus can do so (including Presidential candidates), but they cannot tell others that they have to do the same. I reject that and all forms of authoritarianism (ie ChiCom Party).

Just because China released this virus onto the world doesn’t mean we have to respond to it as they do. Perhaps that was their intention all along???

Last edited by cxorcist; 7th Aug 2020 at 16:55.
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Old 7th Aug 2020, 17:13
  #71 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: one country, one system
Age: 52
Posts: 31
I actually agree, maybe we should explore ways to isolate risk groups. I also share your scepticism about Chinese statistics.

However, there are two flaws in your argument, with all due respect.

First, you reject the right of any government to restrict movement of its citizens, in principle. How can you then order members of the risk group to self- isolate?

Second, you did not address the problem of hospitalization. Your ratio of 0.6% is a mortality rate. A free movement of the remaining 99.4% of the population, as you suggest, would still cause the collapse of any health system.
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Old 7th Aug 2020, 17:30
  #72 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Polar Route
Posts: 1
Originally Posted by Sam Ting Wong View Post
I actually agree, maybe we should explore ways to isolate risk groups. I also share your scepticism about Chinese statistics.

However, there are two flaws in your argument, with all due respect.

First, you reject the right of any government to restrict movement of its citizens, in principle. How can you then order members of the risk group to self- isolate?

Second, you did not address the problem of hospitalization. Your ratio of 0.6% is a mortality rate. A free movement of the remaining 99.4% of the population, as you suggest, would still cause the collapse of any health system.
The US has, for all intensive purposes, free movement with a few states and cities as exceptions. Yes, the infections (and testing rates) are high, yet the hospital systems are nowhere close to being overwhelmed. In fact, many are laying off staff (the opposite of all hands on deck). There have been instances of potential hospital capacity problems (ie NYC, NJ, Houston, etc.); but those have been managed well imo. In those instances, perhaps restrictions are appropriate???

As to your other point, if the 0.6% wants to gamble with their life, that is 100% their choice. Most of those I know are being quite careful without having to be told.
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Old 8th Aug 2020, 01:14
  #73 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: HKG
Age: 43
Posts: 977
The reason Hong Kong is talking about the hospital system not being able to cope is because EVERY SINGLE person with coronavirus goes into an isolation ward, even if they have no symptoms but tested positive. The hospital system has not collapsed anywhere. All the extra hospitals built in the UK were pretty much unused and it has so far been one of the worst affected countries. Doctors in the UK are now saying if there is a second peak it is absurd to restrict other non covid patients as more people will die. No one could start cancer treatment during this madness.

In Australia about 250 people have died, they have pretty much shut the country, 1,300 die of flu. WTF is going on. Has the hospital system in the US collapsed? Millions infected. Yes lots have died also but to be honest it is inevitable, the world is just prolonging this and destroying the economy by doing so.

As someone who is not in a risk group although understand it could still kill me, I would happily go about life expecting to get it at some point and take the 0.06% chance so as to not f**k up the world for everyone else. Advise those at risk to isolate and give them all the government support possible, food deliveries, doctor home visits etc, if your not at risk but too scared be an adult and resign so as to not be a burden on society, someone else will take your job. Of course this will never happen as it is all driven by the fear the media creates and politicians wanting to score points. Absolute fing madness.

Who can isolate for 5 years? You can't, so those at risk are going to be at far greater risk. A year is possible, let it rip through society and give those at risk a chance of sticking it out. 85 million died in WWII, willingly going so that their country, children, family could have a better future. This is nothing compared to that, miniscule, yet the world is on it's knees. It's pathetic.

Last edited by SloppyJoe; 8th Aug 2020 at 01:25.
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