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Current retirement figures.

Fragrant Harbour A forum for the large number of pilots (expats and locals) based with the various airlines in Hong Kong. Air Traffic Controllers are also warmly welcomed into the forum.

Current retirement figures.

Old 9th Apr 2019, 01:31
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Current retirement figures.

A friend showed me the latest seniority list a few days ago, which was interesting.

Here are some numbers compared to the list from 12 months ago (Apr 18 to Apr 19).

The most junior named pilot in April 18 moved up 177 positions (3238 to 3061). This implies that 177 pilots left the company (5.46%).

There were 3244 pilots in Apr 18, now there are 3233, 11 fewer. So only 166 joined to replace the 177 that left.

The most junior pax Captain moved up 83 positions, and remained the most junior Captain! In other words, of the 177 that left, 83 were Captains, and no Captains were trained to replace them.

Of the 166 that joined, only 14 were FOs. I don't know how many SOs were in the 177 leavers, but losing front-seaters at a rate of even 100 per year is not sustainable, no matter how much spin is put on "sustainable resignation rate". Any normal, rationally-run business would do something to keep their people (and it's not "forcing trainers").



24 Captains were forecast to retire (to reach age 55 or 65) in 2018, thus we are losing Captains at three times the forecast rate. This yearís forecast retirements are 45.

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Old 9th Apr 2019, 02:02
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Those numbers are sound and when retirements hit in 20-21 this place will fall apart. Hence a new contract and demanded training.
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 02:33
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Respect

Originally Posted by Natca View Post
Those numbers are sound and when retirements hit in 20-21 this place will fall apart. Hence a new contract and demanded training.
If you cannot think of 13 different reasons not to go into training. Remember this, it should a prerequisite to be able to respect those you work for and with. Otherwise you are rushing towards ' mercenary' territory. In a well established and respected airline those that 'volunteered' were the last people to be asked. As to an individual their motivation was equal measure, notoriety, greed and self interest.





Last edited by markontop; 9th Apr 2019 at 22:01. Reason: grammer
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 03:48
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2019 44 retirements
2020 58
2021 53
2022 51
2023 58
2024 57
2025 58
2026 47
2027 70
2028 62
2029 73
2030 76
2031 81
2032 101
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 07:21
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"The most junior pax Captain moved up 83 positions, and remained the most junior Captain! In other words, of the 177 that left, 83 were Captains, and no Captains were trained to replace them."


No exactly correct, The most junior Capt(747 for various reasons) will actually be way down the seniority list(and will be the most junior Capt for quite a while until a lot of F/O's slot in front of them) and may have moved up 83 spots as a result of F/O's more senior to them leaving as well as Captain's leaving.
I only moved up the Captain list 15 spots in the last year and I am pretty junior on my fleet, so that is net 15 which takes into account Captains senior to me leaving and F/O's senior to me slotting in ahead of me(as happens when guys pass a second kick at it or come back off a base for a command after deferring it for a while)
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 09:44
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Meantime more chaps are leaving across ranks.
last I spoke with: 2 NA FO 2 Aussies (1 Fo 1 So) and 1 skipper is waiting to hear. This in the last 28 days.
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 09:54
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If the experience in Qantas is anything to go on the bulk of pilots are retiring at or just before 60, plus you have medical retirements which with the bulk of our pilots 50 plus has been accelerating. What I’m trying to say is that the company will lose far more than those numbers above.
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 23:40
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Donít worry, it is all Ďbudgetted forí...(by the same staff that did the fuel hedge)
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 02:21
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DDOF,

That's why I mentioned most junior PAX Captain, not most junior Captain.

For you to only move up 15 spots puts you in the first three pages of the seniority list, so not sure what you meant by "on my fleet". I didn't look at fleet seniority at all, just the ASL.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 08:52
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Sorry, misread that ďPax CaptĒ
However my seniority number has only change by 15 in the last year and Iím in the low 1200ís
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 09:22
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Originally Posted by DDDOF View Post
Sorry, misread that ďPax CaptĒ
However my seniority number has only change by 15 in the last year and Iím in the low 1200ís
Then I'm not understanding what you are looking at.

Our illustrious Pilot "Leader" moved up 31 spots, and he is below 200.

Someone who was 1250 in Apr 18 has moved to 1183 now, a change of 67, so I remain confused how you can only move 15; you are looking at the Master Aircrew Seniority List, not fleet?
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 13:08
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LOL, i really need to RTFQ sorry for confusion OK4Wire
I have moved up 15 spots so far this year, as in from Jan1 2019.
So totally disregard, my first post of earlier I totally see how the numbers make sense now, Guess I was talking out of my ass again.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 15:09
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Old 11th Apr 2019, 02:13
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(more characters)
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Old 11th Apr 2019, 16:10
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"There were 3244 pilots in Apr 18, now there are 3233, 11 fewer. So only 166 joined to replace the 177 that left"

a drop of 11 pilots in total out of 3233 = 0.3% less - you wouldn't notice - it's in the noise TBH

If it's as bad as most posters on here say it is why did 166 people join? Did they Shanghai them? (sorry....)
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Old 11th Apr 2019, 17:17
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Doesn't include those that joined after Apr18 and left (or got sacked) before now.
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Old 12th Apr 2019, 01:08
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
"There were 3244 pilots in Apr 18, now there are 3233, 11 fewer. So only 166 joined to replace the 177 that left"

a drop of 11 pilots in total out of 3233 = 0.3% less - you wouldn't notice - it's in the noise TBH

If it's as bad as most posters on here say it is why did 166 people join? Did they Shanghai them? (sorry....)
Sorry to burst your bubble, but doesnít CX/KA have any growth ambitions? If so, how do you do that with declining pilot numbers. Last time I checked, 3 man long haul wasnít exactly the Savior CX was hoping for. Iím guessing CMP is more of the same. Looks great on paper, but in real life... more broken patterns, fatigue, reserve utilization, etc.

Btw, CX is sending approximately two dozen 777-300ER back to the lessors. Iím thinking all those A50s arenít actually growth. Every time I pass through HKG, I marvel at how many CX airplanes are parked all over the airport. Then when I leave, hardly any of them have moved. They just sit there all nicely buttoned up and losing money. All is not well in CX land, contrary to the song and dance in the weekly updates.
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Old 12th Apr 2019, 04:15
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But CXORCIST ,

you donít understand fuel is so expensive , itís actually cheaper to leave the aircraft parked at the bay . Think how much money we are saving by leaving the aircraft parked
24 , 777 300-ERís is close to half the entire fleet , that should free up some pilots . Crew shortage solved
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Old 12th Apr 2019, 05:32
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Originally Posted by cxorcist View Post


Sorry to burst your bubble, but doesnít CX/KA have any growth ambitions? If so, how do you do that with declining pilot numbers. Last time I checked, 3 man long haul wasnít exactly the Savior CX was hoping for. Iím guessing CMP is more of the same. Looks great on paper, but in real life... more broken patterns, fatigue, reserve utilization, etc.

Btw, CX is sending approximately two dozen 777-300ER back to the lessors. Iím thinking all those A50s arenít actually growth. Every time I pass through HKG, I marvel at how many CX airplanes are parked all over the airport. Then when I leave, hardly any of them have moved. They just sit there all nicely buttoned up and losing money. All is not well in CX land, contrary to the song and dance in the weekly updates.
talking about parked planes, we were taxying out the other day and counted over 20 are parked behind the midfield terminal, usually it's the 6-7 sitting in front of haeco waiting for work... but 20+ planes including the haeco ones was an interesting sight
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Old 12th Apr 2019, 14:17
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It reminds me of the organised "sick out" in 1999. Rows of shiny new aircraft parked at where the new terminal building now sits. Quite a site. It seems we may have effectively accomplished the same thing again, this time by seeing their pool of pilots slowly but inexorably evaporate away. Not surprised, as on my European trip this past week, all three of my crew were leaving for greener (and almost assuredly happier) pastures.
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