What is the plan?

[cpapilot81]

Simple question.

For all the no voters, what is the plan once this is turned down?

We now know how much progress has been made since we turned down TA16.

[TurningFinalRWY36]

at this point we just keep doing what we are doing, dont answer your phone, dont go in to training. The company needs us onside more than ever, why do you think they dangled the carrot of bases and giving 13th month, they need us to sign this deal. If we give this a massive NO the company wont have much choice but to come back to the table. Don't freak out now, just hold the line. based off your username and pprune join date im guessing you have not been around too long, dont be short sighted looking at upgrade times. Think about your whole career

[cpapilot81]

Firstly, thank you for a decent response without resorting to the normal attack which makes us worse than management.

Upgrade times won’t affect me but yes I joined after 2008 and in TA16 everyone said hold your ground and yet nothing has happened. More pressure should have been put on and if we vote this down without adding pressure they will just sit back and wait for us to come to the table again, most likely resulting in probably another step down.

The fact is it’s still better than all of us after 2008 joined on so it’s still a step up.

If we had a clear direction then maybe we can get a 100% no showing that we have had enough but if it’s 49% again we won’t achieve anything.

This is why I ask the question of what is the plan and have started this thread so maybe we can have a constructive conversation about what we want our union to do for us.

[Oasis]

The only reason they are talking to us is because of the training ban and contract compliance.
If we agree to lift those, it better be a good offer, because we will never get them back to the table when we are profitable without contract compliance.
1% and the new hkpa is simply not good enough, looking at how long we’ve been negotiating and considering the cabin crew just got 3%.
Inflation is the silent killer of your financial plans.

What we we shall we do next?
Time is on our side, Cathay will soon be profitable again, pilots are leaving in unprecedented numbers and they want to expand.
Let them sweat.

If you want to make this place you future, you have to think long term, and vote no, if you are going to go someplace else vote no because you will vote no with you feet anyway.
I hope no one will be a jerk and just grab a few thousand for hkpa till you leave and leave the rest of us with the mess.

[cpapilot81]

Oasis don’t get me wrong. This is not a vote yes campaign.

Are there actually enough captains/fo’s leaving to make a dent? I’m yet to fly with anyone who is actually leaving other than some SO’s and with SO’s joining weekly it has little effect.

Lets provide some factual numbers of people that have left in the last 6 months and those who have given notice for the next 3 months? That might provide some grit to get a stronger no vote.

I also dont see the issue with the aoa providing us with info on what payrise they are asking for so the membership can decide if it’s acceptable and realistically achievable?

[Oasis]

Everybody is hiring, Qantas, air Canada, Klm, ba, virgin, you name it. Two days ago I flew with someone leaving in the next few months.(not on cx radar yet), and there are many more.
Sure, they say it is ‘budgeted for’, but what else are they going to say? It would only undermine their position.
Everything is cut cut cut right now, but that is the flavour of the week.
What we don’t want is remove the only ‘stick’ we have in negotiations, unless it is something we can live with, long term.
Don’t forget than the only reason we are negotiating is that we have a training ban and cc.
What will have them negotiate with us, when we’re making profits again? Nothing...

[cpapilot81]

While I agree everyone is hiring they have been for years and we have been beating the everyone is leaving drum all year but no actual figures out there.
Someone leaving in a few months that hasn’t given notice isn’t someone leaving sorry because plenty have been saying it and taken no action.
Mostly people don’t take action because when they see the contract at their employer of choice they decide they can’t live on that.

If it were really hurting them already surely we would have gotten closer to asking price?

Mainly it’s still better conditions and no cuts from what we all joined on so how many more years do we negotiate and get no where?

[Roy De Kantzow]

I can guarantee there are PLENTY actually leaving with in the next few days!

However, relying on others leaving is not the solution to the CX pilots problem.

[petrichor]

A good thread CPA81, well done for providing an alternative viewpoint. Personally, I feel that the strategy of "more of the same" ieo a NO vote is indicative of the lack of foresight and initiative we have as a union, both from a leadership and membership point. We did CC many years ago and yet we decided to use exactly the same tactics??!!! Beggars belief really. CC should always have been a "guerrilla style" warfare if it was going to be effective at all but we didn't and now we delude ourselves that it hurts the company more than us. The TB hurts us more than them because they have shown that they don't give a **** how poorly this company performs seeing as they operate to the same old Swire playbook - which is a failure in the modern age. So missing out on expansion is annoying for them but they are prepared to live with it as much as possible because no one up there on the 9th floor is really accountable for poor management decisions/strategy.

So what to do? It's a tough one. My personal belief after almost a quarter of a century here is that they are hoping to get the cheapest deal in return for harmony because they want to try to expand stress-free. HOWEVER, my gut feel is that if they don't get that deal signed, they are going to force through whatever spiny pineapple they are looking to achieve in the next few years anyway because they have found a way around the TB already. They just want a peaceful end to the TB rather than a messy "implemented" one.

This is HK and despite all that has been said, I really don't agree with the common viewpoint that upping IA is going to help us in any way (my opinion only and a minority one on these forums) because it is an employers' economy. Look around you, if you are a LEP cadet then I don't need to ask you to do that because you will already be aware of what working in HK is really all about.

What the company do to us and how they go about it is completely immoral and I hate them for that. But the reality is that unless you really are in a position to leave or are really prepared to lose your job over this by upping IA, then I would say that this has some slight improvements that as a local or new pilot, are probably worth accepting. There used to be a philosophy in negotiating - "take what you can and move on". By slightly upping the benchmark you start from a higher position when the next negs come around. We in the AOA seem to have lost that philosophy entirely and instead gone for the "all or nothing" route. As you pointed out - where has that got us exactly, because I haven't really seen any major improvements since CoS'99.

I'm not saying this is a good deal - it's not. What I am saying is that it's time to stop playing the mind-numbing "same old same old" game and perhaps take this and move on?

[RAT Management]

Take this and move on? You would have to be a bigger fool than you appear to be. 1% is a joke. Hkpa is a joke, it doesn't even address for a moment the cost of living in Hong Kong. Everything else is half arsed.

We have had nothing for over 4 years. I agree with the majority, don't sell out when the market is at an all time low for a bargain basement price. The market is at a turning point and to sell out now would be foolish. So hold the line and wait for market forces coupled with our own pressure to present a much better deal closer to what we deserve.

Afterall we have nothing to lose by holding our position if we look at the long term prospects of our career.

[VR-HFX]

Quit the AOA and join the FAU as an associate. At least you will get some self-respect back

[Roy De Kantzow]

I don't understand why the FAU negs take 2 weeks and ours about 4 years?

[cpapilot81]

Rat. If the first thing you can do is result to name calling that says a lot about us. This is why people can’t have a proper discussion on the aoa forums or in the cockpit.

Just because someone has has a different opinion doesn’t mean they are wrong or a fool.

A lot of people do have something to loose by saying no, just like last time. Let’s be constructive and make a movement to get a better deal rather than hold our course of doing nothing if that’s what you want.

The training ban isn’t hurting anyone but the pilots at this stage and for the past 4 years so is it the most effective method?

What is it we want and is it actually realistic, that is a big question here?

How many pilot groups have negotiated themselves out of a job in history? Do we want to do that?

[petrichor]

RAT

"We have had nothing for over 4 years"...................Precisely my point..actually it's been a lot longer than that since we've had anything substantive! But we will turn anything down in favour of the utopian deal in the meantime...like I said, we have gone down the route of "all or nothing" and guess what we have achieved in recent years......

[DessertRat]

cpapilot81

you ask for actual numbers of pilots leaving as if it isn’t really happening. Read the AOA forum titled “Unofficial Survey - Resignation/Job Hunting”

Actual names with actual resignation dates. And it’s not everyone that has resigned by a long chalk.

[cpapilot81]

There are reasons to vote yes.

Arapa until 2028
Hkpa increase now and in 3 years
better RP’s

If the company then decides to do something so bad what is the harm in going into industrial action and loosing it anyway? We don’t have it now. That would be my answer and suggestion to the “clause 7”

Lets say this vote goes through but we still don’t have the pay rise we want? No industrial action is needed to not go into training or answer your phone so nothing has to change. The aoa can actively suggest people join training but it doesn’t mean anyone has to.

I have already said it but I’ll say it again, this is not a vote yes campaign but a discussion on what is next because we haven’t had a clear direction for a long time and personally I don’t think what we are doing is working.

Getting emotional and targeting your fellow pilots doesn’t help.

[westcoastcaptain]

Certainly an interesting read and I think a very legitimate question has been asked. What in fact is the plan?

Everyone wants a solution but of course wants someone else to facilitate it. Ironically, experience has shown that those demanding something be done the loudest are the same ones who are the first to fold and sign. No, pilots are not leaving in droves as is believed and a survey suggesting many are looking around is completely irrelevant and without any merit. The training ban is solely an irritant and is probably hurting the career prospects of the pilots more than the company itself. What is the point of CC when many are working on G days.

The options are rather quite simple and straightforward. It’s time to either crap or get off the pot. Sign and move on. Or, say No and take a formal vote to walk out and bring this all to a resolution. Yes it will be painful and many could end up on the losing end. But at least there will a resolution.

[mngmt mole]

The following sum up the different aspects of the "deal":

Umbrella agreement — completely 1 sided
ARAP agreement — concession
HKPA — not even at TA16 (and less than COS18)
Pay — not completed
RPs — marginal at best
D&Gs — not completed
JCR — not completed/ reneged
Seniority fleet xfer — not completed

The overriding tone of the proposal is a desperate need for the company to get rid of the training ban. Ask yourselves why they are so intent on attaining that accomplishment. That aspect of our strategy has helped grind this company to a halt (no increase in size in years). Further, it is now a huge impediment to not only growing the airline, but even allowing them to keep the airline at these static levels, as much of the withering training capacity is being used to simply train new replacements for those that are resigning (and many, many are resigning). Why on earth would we now throw away the one strategy that our management are desperate to see eliminated, and not only do it voluntarily, but in exchange for virtually nothing (see above points). More damaging, we would be doing so just as the company starts to reap big profits (as the worlds worst ever fuel hedge comes off the books). CX is attempting to push one last great bluff past us, and in doing so, make utter fools of us, and at the same time effectively destroy the AOA. We will be seen as the laughing stocks of the industry, as we would deserve to be if we vote yes for this. CX needs the TB gone. We should not give away the only really effective strategy without achieving a proper contract in return. This proposal is a pile of steaming excrement, and an insult. It is a NO from me.

[mngmt mole]

What is the difference between voting YES or NO? A YES vote will gain you nothing, as this deal effectively offers nothing. In fact, what this deal does is:

a) proves to our management we are weak and pathetic.
b) effectively destroys the AOA (well done GC...).
c) renders every pilot powerless from whatever the company wants to do for almost 10 years! (meaning: end of any real career hope).
d) allows management to reap all the rewards from the coming years of profit, and keep the pilots on the most pathetic package in the mainline airline industry.
e) condemn every single pilot in this airline to bitterness, frustration and a complete lack of hope.
f) guaranteeing we would wake up the day after a YES vote and realise you just sold yourself, your dignity and your self-worth for pennies...and pennies they will probably strip away from you again at a later date anyway (witness the past 20 years).

Simply keep the faith, keep your dignity and continue to recognise that the TB is killing them, slowly, a day at a time. We just have to sit back and wait for them to realise they can only proceed with a proper, fair and equitable agreement. Not this stinking pile of insulting sh*t.

[Airbubba]

Originally Posted by mngmt mole

e) condemn every single pilot in this airline to bitterness, frustration and a complete lack of hope.

As Woody Allen put it in his 1979 'Speech to the Graduates':

More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.

https://www.nytimes.com/1979/08/10/a...graduates.html