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The Fight is On!

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The Fight is On!

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Old 22nd Aug 2018, 08:35
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The Fight is On!

Your Future - The Writing is on the Wall … if you Wish to Read it


https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...flying-manager

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...-end-four-year

Cathay Pacific Airways has parachuted one of its star performers – a man barely halfway through leading its company restructure – into a new role tackling an issue central to the loss-making airline’s return to profitability: disgruntled pilots.

Strategic transformation head Alex McGowan is the new general manager for aircrew, sources said. McGowan had lately been in charge of turning around Hong Kong’s flagship carrier, including overseeing 600 job cuts earlier last year.

His main task will be to give the airline’s talks with pilots another shot. They stalled last November over disagreements on pay, benefits and changes to flying schedules.
To shave HK$4 billion (US$510 million) from its books by next year, Cathay Pacific has been pushing for savings on aircrew costs of up to HK$1 billion.
Union sources said they were hopeful that the new leadership in the department would yield more positive pilot talks. Changes included Chris Kempis, who replaced Anna Thompson as the airline’s director in charge of all aspects of flight operations
In an internal memo, Hong Kong’s flag carrier said it had made “progress” in recent weeks on contract details for pilots who signed with the company before 2008. It claimed the Hong Kong Aircrew Officers’ Association (HKAOA) was willing to put a new offer to a vote among its members.
Expressing cautious optimism, Chris Kempis, the airline’s new flight operations director, told staff last week: “We are approaching what I hope to be the concluding phase of negotiations with the HKAOA [and] the opportunity for a broad agreement.”
Two recent articles in the SCMP lay out CX’s plans and strategy. CX, very decently, have announced exactly when and where they are coming at you.

The first article announces the appointment of a specialist Strategic transformation head (read hatchet-man). And also precisely how much money CX wants him to take away from the current aircrew Contracts.

In true CX style, the Strategic Transformation Head’s future employment is likely to be contingent on how well he executes CX’s grand plan to extract $1 billion from the Contracts of you, the pilots.

Therefore the new DFO also gets named in the SCMP in preparation for his role as the publicly visible lead actor and eventual fall guy in case it all goes pear shaped, requiring a quick exit for the Executioner.

The second SCMP article lays out the classic expectation management with a CX initiated Press Release that an agreement with the aircrew is imminent when all and sundry know full well this to be not only false but misleading to the extreme.

This action is to undermine the aircrew’s faith in the AOA in not communicating with them and possibly doing secret deals without members approval. It will also provide a platform for CX to blame the pilots and AOA for bad faith negotiating when the AOA responds that no such agreement has been reached.

Who will the public believe once they have already been told by the SCMP that a deal was imminent?


So there you have it:

1 The Plan
2 The Time Frame
3 The Executioner

The Plan is to save $1 billion dollars in aircrew costs which will be borne by 3300 pilots. Simple math tells you the cuts will be an average of $300,000 per aircrew member.

It you don’t accept the plan cuts to your Contract willingly, they will be forced upon you by way of a non-negotiated Contract change; “Sign or you are fired!”.

They will be prepared to let a largish number leave (maybe 200?) in the hope that the majority of aircrew will be cowed into submission.

The time frame is short. The first 2 shots have been fired by CX management.

You don’t have much time to prepare a counterinsurgency defence or a direct attack plan.

Consider your Options now:

1 Fight; or
2 Flight
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Old 22nd Aug 2018, 08:50
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You mean like the sign or be fired that A scalers got in which a number didn’t resign, didn’t sign and carried on happily on full A scale?
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Old 22nd Aug 2018, 09:08
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It is a standard smoke signal given to institutions and financiers.
It is no secret that pilots are considered of interest to those involved in provision of finance to airlines.

There is huge execution risk in this strategy for CX; any inability to conclude the matter will not be well regarded.
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Old 22nd Aug 2018, 09:11
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Originally Posted by Brown Nose
You mean like the sign or be fired that A scalers got in which a number didn’t resign, didn’t sign and carried on happily on full A scale?


No, that was 1994 "Sign or you will never get another pay rise" (they didn't repeat that mistake)
It wasn't Jul 2001 "You 49 ARE fired"
It was Jun 1999 "Sign or you are fired" (got the letter both from the DFO and one week later another personal letter directly from the MD)

Eventually, with the Hong Kong Gov desperately hosting the CX/AOA negotiations, we blinked
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Old 22nd Aug 2018, 09:43
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You talking about the ‘sign or be fired’ that is a gross breach of both Contract and Labour Laws, each fiercely protected by the HK Govt to maintain its position as a desirable place for international firms to do business? In this area, HK has come a long way since 1999. Don’t be so easily spooked ....

Last edited by Veruka Salt; 22nd Aug 2018 at 12:37.
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Old 22nd Aug 2018, 18:11
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If they try a sign or be fired i think that the outcome may well be far worse for them than they are planning . This would be the final nail in the coffin for a number of disgruntled pilots . It will be the final push that makes them realise there is no long term future here and they would be better off looking elsewhere
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Old 24th Aug 2018, 00:45
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Not so much "The Fight is On" as a game of chicken. Cathay knows they need to get this wrapped up before they go back to making money. The pilots just don't need to blink.

As has been said many times before, Cathay was making money before the fuel hedge; didn't make money during the hedge; and as long as oil doesn't go too much above 100 (wouldn't that be ironic) they will go back to making money. In the last case, they can claim the profits are due to the structural changes and cost-cutting efforts which were essential. Job done, bonuses please, next?
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Old 24th Aug 2018, 08:05
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The onus is on the company and it's new brood of managers to find a solution. Engaging with them on this journey is a total waste of time. So, why don't we all just sit back and watch them run around in circles.They can publish as many statistics as they like. Make as many pronouncements as they like. BUT when push comes to shove and the investors see the flights being cancelled, the competition gaining market share and the entire staff body "giving up" then the axe will fall and those same managers will be pariahs. They will need their directors FOC's to get out of dodge city.
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