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Long-Looming Pilot Shortage May Be Near
A worldwide shortage of pilots – forecast for more than 15 years – has so far failed to materialise, but there are worrying signs.
Simulation and training company CAE points out that US regional carriers, seen as a source of pilots by the majors, cannot expand and often have to drop schedules or routes because they cannot crew their aircraft. That is despite the fact that carriers can draw on a supply of pilots furloughed during recent economic downturns. CAE predicts that many more airlines will be forced to take up sponsorship of future pilot training and recover the cost through a longer bonding period.
Meanwhile, in the USA there are indications that a career as a professional pilot, whether civil or military, is becoming less attractive to young people.
John Illson, senior vice-president certification services at PRISM (Professional Resources in System Management), notes that applications to the US Air Force Academy are down 21%, and only 38% of people on an aviation degree course in the USA end up wanting to be airline pilots.
EasyJet’s head of crew training, Capt Eddie Sproul, says the industry can ease the situation by improving pilot retention and appealing to a wider base of applicants. One obvious approach, he says, is to make an aviation career more appealing to women.
However, now that the European Aviation Safety Agency flight time limitation maximums of 900h/year have become an airline target, work/life balance is more difficult for pilots, and Sproul predicts that airlines will have to accommodate applications for part-time working or face losing pilots – both men and women – to other jobs or other carriers.
EasyJet has launched its Amy Johnson programme to attract women trainees, and also enables any of its employees to apply to be considered for pilot training.
UK-based training organisation CTC says that, at present, only about 10% of applicants for pilot training are women. Julie Westhorp, chair of the British Women Pilots Association (BWPA), says that raising the profile of women in aviation is a hard task, but one that certainly needs doing. “Nothing would please me more than to close the BWPA because it wasn’t needed any more,” she says
A worldwide shortage of pilots – forecast for more than 15 years – has so far failed to materialise, but there are worrying signs.
Simulation and training company CAE points out that US regional carriers, seen as a source of pilots by the majors, cannot expand and often have to drop schedules or routes because they cannot crew their aircraft. That is despite the fact that carriers can draw on a supply of pilots furloughed during recent economic downturns. CAE predicts that many more airlines will be forced to take up sponsorship of future pilot training and recover the cost through a longer bonding period.
Meanwhile, in the USA there are indications that a career as a professional pilot, whether civil or military, is becoming less attractive to young people.
John Illson, senior vice-president certification services at PRISM (Professional Resources in System Management), notes that applications to the US Air Force Academy are down 21%, and only 38% of people on an aviation degree course in the USA end up wanting to be airline pilots.
EasyJet’s head of crew training, Capt Eddie Sproul, says the industry can ease the situation by improving pilot retention and appealing to a wider base of applicants. One obvious approach, he says, is to make an aviation career more appealing to women.
However, now that the European Aviation Safety Agency flight time limitation maximums of 900h/year have become an airline target, work/life balance is more difficult for pilots, and Sproul predicts that airlines will have to accommodate applications for part-time working or face losing pilots – both men and women – to other jobs or other carriers.
EasyJet has launched its Amy Johnson programme to attract women trainees, and also enables any of its employees to apply to be considered for pilot training.
UK-based training organisation CTC says that, at present, only about 10% of applicants for pilot training are women. Julie Westhorp, chair of the British Women Pilots Association (BWPA), says that raising the profile of women in aviation is a hard task, but one that certainly needs doing. “Nothing would please me more than to close the BWPA because it wasn’t needed any more,” she says
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Seems like it's fast becoming a world wide problem
Pilots say shortages causing cancellations | Stuff.co.nz
Plus of course the ''words of wisdom' at the bottom of the article from so called 'armchair pilots'
or would be if they could be ??
Pilots say shortages causing cancellations | Stuff.co.nz
Plus of course the ''words of wisdom' at the bottom of the article from so called 'armchair pilots'
or would be if they could be ??
WARNING: Outsider opinion follows ! Agreement is neither expected nor required.
Alleged pilot “shortages” (an undefined term) today are the result of decisions made up until today rather than the existence or lack of a suitable future pilot supply yet to hit the market…or NOT hit the market
Statements like these below are the typical response from management, i.e., blame everything on someone or something else (no phenomenon is to ill defined or fuzzy to fit the situation):
"One of the biggest issues for us is we are not getting enough pilots coming through the training schools.
The number of pilots coming through is simply not enough to supply the airlines if they continue to grow."
[FWIW, the same allegations are routinely made Up Here where we have vast groves of pilot trees with low-hanging fruit, particularly at the legacy level.]
As merely an observer, I would like to see independent data from someone without anything to lose/gain whatever that data might show. Statements from airline execs and even unions don’t fit that criterion.
Further, I’d ask how many ultimately usable NZ candidates are either viewed and rejected or ignored outright because they aren’t at the moment ideal in the eyes of a company.
Every airline understandably wants ideal people but if there’s a “shortage” threatening the business plan, and management intend to keep that business plan viable, perhaps a company would take some candidates who could be mentored and/or brought along in the monitored, structured environment of an airline and in effect create their own “ideal” result. I’ll bet airlines in NZ are perfectly able to do just that; no one arrives on the property as a finished product nor so they retire as such.
Yes, there might be some people dropped along the way but how’s what management are doing now working for them if they allege a “shortage” ? Something about doing the same thing and expecting a different result comes to mind.
With a lack of reliable Big Picture data I remain a skeptic on the whole issue...but am willing to be educated.
Alleged pilot “shortages” (an undefined term) today are the result of decisions made up until today rather than the existence or lack of a suitable future pilot supply yet to hit the market…or NOT hit the market
Statements like these below are the typical response from management, i.e., blame everything on someone or something else (no phenomenon is to ill defined or fuzzy to fit the situation):
"One of the biggest issues for us is we are not getting enough pilots coming through the training schools.
The number of pilots coming through is simply not enough to supply the airlines if they continue to grow."
[FWIW, the same allegations are routinely made Up Here where we have vast groves of pilot trees with low-hanging fruit, particularly at the legacy level.]
As merely an observer, I would like to see independent data from someone without anything to lose/gain whatever that data might show. Statements from airline execs and even unions don’t fit that criterion.
Further, I’d ask how many ultimately usable NZ candidates are either viewed and rejected or ignored outright because they aren’t at the moment ideal in the eyes of a company.
Every airline understandably wants ideal people but if there’s a “shortage” threatening the business plan, and management intend to keep that business plan viable, perhaps a company would take some candidates who could be mentored and/or brought along in the monitored, structured environment of an airline and in effect create their own “ideal” result. I’ll bet airlines in NZ are perfectly able to do just that; no one arrives on the property as a finished product nor so they retire as such.
Yes, there might be some people dropped along the way but how’s what management are doing now working for them if they allege a “shortage” ? Something about doing the same thing and expecting a different result comes to mind.
With a lack of reliable Big Picture data I remain a skeptic on the whole issue...but am willing to be educated.
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Pilot shortage? It is a myth in Civil Aviation anno 2017!
Various articles are flowing around the Mass Media with one single reason. Commercial Flight schools & low-cost carriers are just interested in increasing their max. profit - and how do they get more on the bank account? By getting more pilot aspirants paying 60-120k EUR for the initial training & additional 30-40k for the TR at appropriate training centers (Guess what: Majority of them in EU are privatized now and under control of CAE/OAA).
Various articles are flowing around the Mass Media with one single reason. Commercial Flight schools & low-cost carriers are just interested in increasing their max. profit - and how do they get more on the bank account? By getting more pilot aspirants paying 60-120k EUR for the initial training & additional 30-40k for the TR at appropriate training centers (Guess what: Majority of them in EU are privatized now and under control of CAE/OAA).
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Pilot shortages have been announced regularly for the last 10 years, yet airlines have always found a way around it.
'Pilot shortage' is just a way of saying that airlines can't hire for the money they're offering. The way they go around it is never, obviously, by making the hiring packages more attractive. What they do is simply hire people with little or no experience who they can justify paying less, all with the help of regulators who seem more than happy with airlines plonking 200-hours-wonders in the right seat of their jets.
Said noobs, blinded by how shiny those jets are, are more than happy to take McDonalds T&Cs to have a go at sporting those flashy mall-security-guard uniforms around.
And the wheels of the bus go round and round...
'Pilot shortage' is just a way of saying that airlines can't hire for the money they're offering. The way they go around it is never, obviously, by making the hiring packages more attractive. What they do is simply hire people with little or no experience who they can justify paying less, all with the help of regulators who seem more than happy with airlines plonking 200-hours-wonders in the right seat of their jets.
Said noobs, blinded by how shiny those jets are, are more than happy to take McDonalds T&Cs to have a go at sporting those flashy mall-security-guard uniforms around.
And the wheels of the bus go round and round...
I believe at the moment Qantas Australian based 737s are doing trans Tasman flying instead of Jetconnect due to them having a pilot shortage.
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If true, sympathy none!
It sounds like somebody is not prepared to offer the appropriate terms and conditions to attract sufficient staff. Decisions taken years ago to save a few pounds are now going to cost hundreds of thousands of pounds or maybe even the company. I do hope the shareholders have the names and addresses of the guilty parties do they can send round the boys to explain their displeasure in person.
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Well there are plenty of old farts around who have retired but would consider working month on month off or even a part time roster
ICAO needs to look at extending the retirement age, 65 is just a number , I have seen 65 year olds that are in much better shape than many of their younger counterparts . as long as you can pass a medical and are fit why not continue IF you want to
ICAO needs to look at extending the retirement age, 65 is just a number , I have seen 65 year olds that are in much better shape than many of their younger counterparts . as long as you can pass a medical and are fit why not continue IF you want to
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Pilot Shortage for beginners. First, there has always been a pilot shortage of those with lots of experience and always hardly any shortage of freshly issued commercial licences with out any real experience.
Now, specifically in CANADA, the shortage extends to the lowest experienced commercial pilot.
If you are thinking of gaining a commercial licence and working in Canada you should understand very clearly that the opportunity to immigrate, gain a work permit can automatically follow a STUDENT Permit to obtain a Commercial Licence.
The "shortage" is such that Manitoba issues student visa's of a sort that allow a following work permit in Canada following the course of training.
You can see more at www.MordenImmigration.ca and or www.MountainCityAvation.com
which is located between Grand Forks North Dakota and Winnipeg Manitoba.
Now, specifically in CANADA, the shortage extends to the lowest experienced commercial pilot.
If you are thinking of gaining a commercial licence and working in Canada you should understand very clearly that the opportunity to immigrate, gain a work permit can automatically follow a STUDENT Permit to obtain a Commercial Licence.
The "shortage" is such that Manitoba issues student visa's of a sort that allow a following work permit in Canada following the course of training.
You can see more at www.MordenImmigration.ca and or www.MountainCityAvation.com
which is located between Grand Forks North Dakota and Winnipeg Manitoba.
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Well there are plenty of old farts around who have retired but would consider working month on month off or even a part time roster
ICAO needs to look at extending the retirement age, 65 is just a number , I have seen 65 year olds that are in much better shape than many of their younger counterparts . as long as you can pass a medical and are fit why not continue IF you want to
ICAO needs to look at extending the retirement age, 65 is just a number , I have seen 65 year olds that are in much better shape than many of their younger counterparts . as long as you can pass a medical and are fit why not continue IF you want to
If you are a 95 year old Flight Examiner than you most probably not subject to insurance limitations, most of the time.
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Well there are plenty of old farts around who have retired but would consider working month on month off or even a part time roster
ICAO needs to look at extending the retirement age, 65 is just a number , I have seen 65 year olds that are in much better shape than many of their younger counterparts . as long as you can pass a medical and are fit why not continue IF you want to
ICAO needs to look at extending the retirement age, 65 is just a number , I have seen 65 year olds that are in much better shape than many of their younger counterparts . as long as you can pass a medical and are fit why not continue IF you want to
You think ICAO making such a ruling would mean anything in this region?
Besides that - screw any ideas of 'helping them solve their issues' like that. The Chinese have the proper solution - increase the Terms and Conditions until they get the numbers they need. Keep increasing until they do. Great. Market forces at work. It lifts ALL boats. Your solution allows them to keep pissing on us.
One more point - you may not have heard the news, but, we don't live forever.
Ugo Ehiogu - England footballer - dead at 44. He was FITTER than you.
David Bowie - Dead at 69. He was RICHER than you.
Wise up and enjoy your life (if you actually have one) before you're six feet under.
PS I'm not as old as you, but old enough to know when the game is up. Soon. Can't bloody wait.
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Ha ha. Oriental Flyer is not me pill, whilst I did share similar thoughts. Dr. JF at CX City is pretty adamant that they won't go past 65, due to trying to keep the medical risk within their 3% criteria, although I think most colleagues who have left us sadly recently, did for reasons other than to do with age at 65, however I am sure our working lifestyle doesn't help. If they offered an AKL Base on the 747-8F, you would have to consider it, but that isn't going to happen, so early September it is.
Best Regards,
PH
Best Regards,
PH
Looking forward to it now and lots to do to keep me busy in Retirement. Best Wishes to you all.Join Date: Mar 2008
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This published today:
While cost-cutting was the name of the game for many years, the trend has changed now that carriers are facing a severe pilot shortage. Delta agreed to give its pilots a 30 percent raise by 2019, and American Airlines said last month that pilots are being offered 8 percent mid-contract raises. United also bolstered its pay.
The industry has an even bigger shortage problem ahead. The Teamsters' letter to Amazon said that 35 percent of current U.S. pilots are likely to retire over the next 10 years and that demand will outstrip supply by up to 15 percent. Amazon is currently partnering with companies on the wrong side of the market, the letter said.
"Pilots enter and then rapidly exit the business, creating massive training and staffing difficulties – not to mention added costs – which impede these air carriers' ability to deliver on customer expectations."
So....CX, your plan is....to imitate an ostrich and put your head in the proverbial sand? Or I suppose someone like AT can just jump in a 777 and fly it to a given destination? I mean, how hard could it really be? Just like driving a bus.
While cost-cutting was the name of the game for many years, the trend has changed now that carriers are facing a severe pilot shortage. Delta agreed to give its pilots a 30 percent raise by 2019, and American Airlines said last month that pilots are being offered 8 percent mid-contract raises. United also bolstered its pay.
The industry has an even bigger shortage problem ahead. The Teamsters' letter to Amazon said that 35 percent of current U.S. pilots are likely to retire over the next 10 years and that demand will outstrip supply by up to 15 percent. Amazon is currently partnering with companies on the wrong side of the market, the letter said.
"Pilots enter and then rapidly exit the business, creating massive training and staffing difficulties – not to mention added costs – which impede these air carriers' ability to deliver on customer expectations."
So....CX, your plan is....to imitate an ostrich and put your head in the proverbial sand? Or I suppose someone like AT can just jump in a 777 and fly it to a given destination? I mean, how hard could it really be? Just like driving a bus.
Airlines could quite realistically offer very generous retirement benefits to entice pilots to join and stay long term because with 900-1000 hours of ultra long haul flying a year nobody would live very long after retirement to make the cost prohibitive.
A BA 747 captain in the 1970s wouldn't be doing 14 hour legs and would only do around 60 hours a month of shorter sectors with more time down route and at home to recover. Retire at 55 on a full pension and spend the next 20 years on the golf course.
A BA 747 captain in the 1970s wouldn't be doing 14 hour legs and would only do around 60 hours a month of shorter sectors with more time down route and at home to recover. Retire at 55 on a full pension and spend the next 20 years on the golf course.