ASIAN PILOT SHORTAGE
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ASIAN PILOT SHORTAGE
Rapid growth leaves Asian airlines searching for pilots
The quick growth of Asian airlines creates challenge: how to safely train enough jet pilots
By Scott Mayerowitz and David Koenig, AP Airline Writers December 30, 2014 4:30 AM
NEW YORK (AP) -- Every week, a combined total of 28 new planes roll off the assembly lines at Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer factories — the fastest production rate in the history of commercial aviation. Most of those aircraft feed the insatiable demand in Asia.
The rapid growth of Asian airlines is helping bolster economies and change lifestyles, but it's also creating a daunting safety challenge as more passengers head into an increasingly crowded airspace.
Much of the boom has been driven by the surge in popularity of Southeast Asia's budget carriers, such as AirAsia, whose Flight 8501 disappeared Sunday morning, 42 minutes after it took off from Surabaya, Indonesia, on its way to Singapore. It is still unclear what happened to the plane, but the aviation disaster has put a new spotlight on the obstacles that lie ahead for the booming region.
As Southeast Asia's economies grow, creating a burgeoning middle class, more people have the appetite to travel and airlines are struggling to ensure that their training and safety standards keep pace with the demand.
There are currently 1,600 aircraft operating in Southeast Asia, Brendan Sobie, analyst at the CAPA Centre for Aviation, a consultancy in Sydney, said by email. "It is the only region in the world with as many aircraft on order as in service," he said. "So the growth seems set to continue."
For each new plane, airlines need to hire and train at least 10 to 12 pilots, sometimes more, according to industry experts. The figure is so high because planes often fly throughout the day and night, seven days a week, while pilots need sleep and days off.
Right now, Asia-Pacific accounts for 31 percent of global air passenger traffic, according to the International Air Transport Association. Within two decades, that figure is forecast to jump to 42 percent, as Asia adds an extra 1.8 billion annual passengers for an overall market size of 2.9 billion.
Boeing projects that the Asia-Pacific region will need 216,000 new pilots in the next 20 years, the most of any part of the world, accounting for 40 percent of the global demand.
To put that in perspective, there are about 104,000 pilots currently working in the United States, flying everything from crop dusters to jumbo jets, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"The exponential growth in and the demand for air travel were not anticipated by many of the governments in the region," says Shukor Yusof, founder of the Malaysia-based aviation research firm Endau Analytics. "And so you're seeing a lack of infrastructure, airports and pilots because nobody expected low-cost travel would have taken off as quickly, as rapidly, and would be as lucrative as it is now."
Japan's Peach Aviation, which is partly owned by ANA Holdings, the parent of All Nippon Airways, said this spring it would cut up to 2,100 flights — about one-sixth of its planned schedule — that it expected to operate between April and October due to a pilot shortage.
The U.S. has many pilot-training facilities, from universities to specialized flying schools. And it has a farm system of regional carriers that train and churn out experienced pilots for the largest airlines. But Asia, home to fast-growing carriers such as AirAsia, Indonesia's Lion Air and India's Jet Airways, doesn't have enough training programs to produce all the pilots it needs, said David Greenberg, a former Delta Air Lines executive who also oversaw pilot training and safety at Korean Air.
"There is a global shortage, and this has brought pilot poaching," Greenberg said. Carriers in the Middle East and Asia have looked to the U.S., Canada, Australia and Europe to fill the gap.
Greenberg said that while he was at Korean, 10 percent of the carrier's captains were foreigners who came from 28 different countries.
Meanwhile, many pilots, engineers and technicians in Southeast Asia have been lured to more attractive jobs in the Middle East, which boast higher salaries and the opportunity to fly in sleek new aircraft.
"I personally know quite a number of people from Malaysia Airlines who have actually gone to the Middle East and I don't blame them because the money is very good," Yusof says. "If you compare Middle Eastern carriers to Southeast Asian carriers, they are more advanced, they are growing far quicker — it's all about dollars and cents and they have a bottomless pit of money."
Money — or lack thereof — is at the heart of much of the region's staffing shortages, says Lim Chee Meng, CEO of Mil-Com Aerospace Group, a Singapore-based aviation training company that provides training for many of the region's airlines.
Wages for pilots and technicians in Southeast Asia have not risen fast enough to compensate for the cost of training, which discourages people from wanting to pursue an aviation career in the first place, Lim says.
The dearth of trained staff means there are fewer workers to juggle an ever-growing workload — and that comes with risks.
"It can lead to cascading effects down the road that can contribute to safety issues," Lim says. "Which is a big problem."
That said, the aviation industry has generally done an amazing job of improving safety while doubling the number of passengers in the past 15 years.
Last year, 3.1 billion passengers flew, twice the total in 1999. Yet the chances of dying in a plane crash were much lower.
Since 2000, there were less than three fatalities per 10 million passengers, according to an Associated Press analysis of crash data provided by aviation consultancy Ascend. In the 1990s, there were nearly eight; during the 1980s there were 11; and the 1970s had 26 deaths per 10 million passengers.
That is not to say some parts of the world aren't more dangerous than others. The accident rate in Africa, for instance, is nearly five times that of the worldwide average, according to the International Civil Aviation Organization, part of the United Nations.
Indonesia has a particularly bumpy safety record.
In 2007, the safety standards there were so bad that the European Union prohibited all of Indonesia's airlines from flying into any of its member countries. That ban was lifted Aug. 17, 2009; however, Indonesia's main airline — quickly growing Lion Air — is still banned by the EU.
For many people, flying is the only option. Indonesia is a sprawling archipelago of 250 million people. To get from one island to another, the easiest way is by air. Throughout Asia, adequate highways or railroads don't always exist. So as the region's economy has grown, the number of people flying has, too.
And that growth is only going to continue. Indonesia's various airlines have 607 unfilled aircraft orders with Airbus and Boeing. Lion Air has the bulk of those, with 508 aircraft still on order.
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The quick growth of Asian airlines creates challenge: how to safely train enough jet pilots
By Scott Mayerowitz and David Koenig, AP Airline Writers December 30, 2014 4:30 AM
NEW YORK (AP) -- Every week, a combined total of 28 new planes roll off the assembly lines at Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer factories — the fastest production rate in the history of commercial aviation. Most of those aircraft feed the insatiable demand in Asia.
The rapid growth of Asian airlines is helping bolster economies and change lifestyles, but it's also creating a daunting safety challenge as more passengers head into an increasingly crowded airspace.
Much of the boom has been driven by the surge in popularity of Southeast Asia's budget carriers, such as AirAsia, whose Flight 8501 disappeared Sunday morning, 42 minutes after it took off from Surabaya, Indonesia, on its way to Singapore. It is still unclear what happened to the plane, but the aviation disaster has put a new spotlight on the obstacles that lie ahead for the booming region.
As Southeast Asia's economies grow, creating a burgeoning middle class, more people have the appetite to travel and airlines are struggling to ensure that their training and safety standards keep pace with the demand.
There are currently 1,600 aircraft operating in Southeast Asia, Brendan Sobie, analyst at the CAPA Centre for Aviation, a consultancy in Sydney, said by email. "It is the only region in the world with as many aircraft on order as in service," he said. "So the growth seems set to continue."
For each new plane, airlines need to hire and train at least 10 to 12 pilots, sometimes more, according to industry experts. The figure is so high because planes often fly throughout the day and night, seven days a week, while pilots need sleep and days off.
Right now, Asia-Pacific accounts for 31 percent of global air passenger traffic, according to the International Air Transport Association. Within two decades, that figure is forecast to jump to 42 percent, as Asia adds an extra 1.8 billion annual passengers for an overall market size of 2.9 billion.
Boeing projects that the Asia-Pacific region will need 216,000 new pilots in the next 20 years, the most of any part of the world, accounting for 40 percent of the global demand.
To put that in perspective, there are about 104,000 pilots currently working in the United States, flying everything from crop dusters to jumbo jets, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"The exponential growth in and the demand for air travel were not anticipated by many of the governments in the region," says Shukor Yusof, founder of the Malaysia-based aviation research firm Endau Analytics. "And so you're seeing a lack of infrastructure, airports and pilots because nobody expected low-cost travel would have taken off as quickly, as rapidly, and would be as lucrative as it is now."
Japan's Peach Aviation, which is partly owned by ANA Holdings, the parent of All Nippon Airways, said this spring it would cut up to 2,100 flights — about one-sixth of its planned schedule — that it expected to operate between April and October due to a pilot shortage.
The U.S. has many pilot-training facilities, from universities to specialized flying schools. And it has a farm system of regional carriers that train and churn out experienced pilots for the largest airlines. But Asia, home to fast-growing carriers such as AirAsia, Indonesia's Lion Air and India's Jet Airways, doesn't have enough training programs to produce all the pilots it needs, said David Greenberg, a former Delta Air Lines executive who also oversaw pilot training and safety at Korean Air.
"There is a global shortage, and this has brought pilot poaching," Greenberg said. Carriers in the Middle East and Asia have looked to the U.S., Canada, Australia and Europe to fill the gap.
Greenberg said that while he was at Korean, 10 percent of the carrier's captains were foreigners who came from 28 different countries.
Meanwhile, many pilots, engineers and technicians in Southeast Asia have been lured to more attractive jobs in the Middle East, which boast higher salaries and the opportunity to fly in sleek new aircraft.
"I personally know quite a number of people from Malaysia Airlines who have actually gone to the Middle East and I don't blame them because the money is very good," Yusof says. "If you compare Middle Eastern carriers to Southeast Asian carriers, they are more advanced, they are growing far quicker — it's all about dollars and cents and they have a bottomless pit of money."
Money — or lack thereof — is at the heart of much of the region's staffing shortages, says Lim Chee Meng, CEO of Mil-Com Aerospace Group, a Singapore-based aviation training company that provides training for many of the region's airlines.
Wages for pilots and technicians in Southeast Asia have not risen fast enough to compensate for the cost of training, which discourages people from wanting to pursue an aviation career in the first place, Lim says.
The dearth of trained staff means there are fewer workers to juggle an ever-growing workload — and that comes with risks.
"It can lead to cascading effects down the road that can contribute to safety issues," Lim says. "Which is a big problem."
That said, the aviation industry has generally done an amazing job of improving safety while doubling the number of passengers in the past 15 years.
Last year, 3.1 billion passengers flew, twice the total in 1999. Yet the chances of dying in a plane crash were much lower.
Since 2000, there were less than three fatalities per 10 million passengers, according to an Associated Press analysis of crash data provided by aviation consultancy Ascend. In the 1990s, there were nearly eight; during the 1980s there were 11; and the 1970s had 26 deaths per 10 million passengers.
That is not to say some parts of the world aren't more dangerous than others. The accident rate in Africa, for instance, is nearly five times that of the worldwide average, according to the International Civil Aviation Organization, part of the United Nations.
Indonesia has a particularly bumpy safety record.
In 2007, the safety standards there were so bad that the European Union prohibited all of Indonesia's airlines from flying into any of its member countries. That ban was lifted Aug. 17, 2009; however, Indonesia's main airline — quickly growing Lion Air — is still banned by the EU.
For many people, flying is the only option. Indonesia is a sprawling archipelago of 250 million people. To get from one island to another, the easiest way is by air. Throughout Asia, adequate highways or railroads don't always exist. So as the region's economy has grown, the number of people flying has, too.
And that growth is only going to continue. Indonesia's various airlines have 607 unfilled aircraft orders with Airbus and Boeing. Lion Air has the bulk of those, with 508 aircraft still on order.
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Well then raise the entry age from 50 to 55 years as it is in mainland China, to something more realistic. What is wrong with a pilot of 60+ provided he/she is still competent and medically fit?
Lowering the bar on standards and experience is the wrong way to go.
Lowering the bar on standards and experience is the wrong way to go.
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No need..there is PLENTY of highly experienced captains in Europe, US and Middle East who would go fly in Asia. Just take the average contract in one of the good companies from the above countries, triple it, and there you go..shortage problem solved (it would still be waaay less expensive than the CEO bonus at the end of the year anyway)
They want to make money in a market new to them, and they want safety?...then I' m afraid this will be the only way.
They want to make money in a market new to them, and they want safety?...then I' m afraid this will be the only way.
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Yes see your point. Probably outside the affordable safety mindset of accountants. What these people seem to forget, it can only take one bad prang with resulting loss of life that could bring the whole company down.
Apart from an outfit's aircraft, safe pilots are their biggest asset.
"Pay peanuts and you get ms"
Apart from an outfit's aircraft, safe pilots are their biggest asset.
"Pay peanuts and you get ms"
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Lol, shortage.
You're missing the point that the bean counters don't care that the peanuts are attracting monkeys.
Is this the shortage that has been talked about for oh, 20-30 years?
You're missing the point that the bean counters don't care that the peanuts are attracting monkeys.
Is this the shortage that has been talked about for oh, 20-30 years?
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To be honest I think there is and will be a shortage of experienced captains (not pilots in general) in Asia. But also I don't expect much to change, cost cutting will come first, training and licences conversion requirements from EASA/FAA will still be unnecessarily long/complex/costly in a lot of these countries, ridiculous medical requirements etc...and above all, salaries not proportioned to all this hassle. Wouldn't hold my breath basically.
I' d say a quick paperwork-only licence conversion, 25 000 eur net per month plus housing and schooling for kids, 70 hrs a month average, will most definitely solve any shortage problems.
I' d say a quick paperwork-only licence conversion, 25 000 eur net per month plus housing and schooling for kids, 70 hrs a month average, will most definitely solve any shortage problems.
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I can't believe that its 2015 and will still have all this Racist talk - especially on what should be a professional pilots' forum. Not all Asians are short OK! I know a few over 6 foot. And who cares. I believe the min height to do full rudder deflection and brake whilst reaching the far end of the overhead panel is around 5'2 on most airliners. Can we stop talking about this Asian pilot shortage OK!
Grow up man.
Grow up man.
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You can throw as many kids into the South East Asian airline environment as you like and you'll cheaply resolve the so called " Pilot shortage" but there will be a significant safety penalty. Safety comes with maturity and experience, not with a license. Older experienced captains need to be financially encouraged to stay in the industry.
short flights long nights
If they keep this pay to fly stuff up, things are only to get worse.
A few years ago Garuda was short crew so they took on some expats and was paying expat wages. This caused a sh#t storm with local crew and all the expats either had to leave or take a local package.
I think most SE Asian airlines don't mind hiring expats on expat packages but the local pilots have a huge problem with this. They see it as having jobs stolen from locals. This forces many to offer local terms only to expats which only seems to attract the odd free and single guy looking for adventure or end of the line fired from all other job desperates.
I think most SE Asian airlines don't mind hiring expats on expat packages but the local pilots have a huge problem with this. They see it as having jobs stolen from locals. This forces many to offer local terms only to expats which only seems to attract the odd free and single guy looking for adventure or end of the line fired from all other job desperates.
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There is no shortage of "pilots", just a shortage of real pilots who actually know what they are doing and are willing to fly in the Asian environment, with inadequate pay packages and poor living / working conditions.
Even CX, widely regarded as the safest airline in the Asia Pacific region, has lowered it's entry requirements to essentially zero. If CX had a robust training department, this might be ok, but they don't. It's not even close, CX is 80 trainers short in 2015. This to say nothing of those already in "training" who don't belong there. It's truly a "death spiral" at this stage.
Standby for more Asian airline accidents. Its just a matter of time... Passengers should be very careful when making travel plans.
Even CX, widely regarded as the safest airline in the Asia Pacific region, has lowered it's entry requirements to essentially zero. If CX had a robust training department, this might be ok, but they don't. It's not even close, CX is 80 trainers short in 2015. This to say nothing of those already in "training" who don't belong there. It's truly a "death spiral" at this stage.
Standby for more Asian airline accidents. Its just a matter of time... Passengers should be very careful when making travel plans.
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Froggy,
You may well be right. I heard 80 new trainers for 2015. The A350s don't start showing up until 2016. It's hard to imagine they need 50 new trainers on the 747, but maybe all those JFO sectors create that kind of demand.
You may well be right. I heard 80 new trainers for 2015. The A350s don't start showing up until 2016. It's hard to imagine they need 50 new trainers on the 747, but maybe all those JFO sectors create that kind of demand.