JUST IN CASE ANYONE HAD ANY DOUBTS !
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Here
Posts: 343
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Can't see anyone making 250% in this day and age, perhaps 250% the other way! Lot's of people selling means only one thing, the laws of economics haven't just changed overnight because this particular Hong Kong bubble happens to be different. Classic bubble thinking, it will never happen to me!
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: HONG KONG
Posts: 100
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Quite right Curtain.
Now is actually the time to buy! I don't have long term confidence in Hong Kong or China, but if you are on a decent CX contract and you don't let the AOA 'negotiate' anything to do with housing, you will do alright before 2040.
I am actively seeking property in HK right now. So cut and paste this and put it in you calendar 5 years from now so I don't have to listen to the inevitable chorus of 'you were lucky'.
I haven't made jack **** out of being a pilot in HK, but property on the other hand, is a good thing as long as you think with your head and have patience. Here is advice from a proper investor, not a whinging pilot that just always seems to miss the boat, buy now and enjoy the $$ in the future.
Now is actually the time to buy! I don't have long term confidence in Hong Kong or China, but if you are on a decent CX contract and you don't let the AOA 'negotiate' anything to do with housing, you will do alright before 2040.
I am actively seeking property in HK right now. So cut and paste this and put it in you calendar 5 years from now so I don't have to listen to the inevitable chorus of 'you were lucky'.
I haven't made jack **** out of being a pilot in HK, but property on the other hand, is a good thing as long as you think with your head and have patience. Here is advice from a proper investor, not a whinging pilot that just always seems to miss the boat, buy now and enjoy the $$ in the future.
Guest
Posts: n/a
Actually, Curtain Rod; since the Buyers Stamp Duty 18 months ago, many haven't sold to cash-in.
There have been a fraction of the normal transaction rates. That is one of the indicators of momentum change.
Anyone who thinks there is a significant upside to this current housing climate is deluded.
Brown Nose - best of luck to you.
There have been a fraction of the normal transaction rates. That is one of the indicators of momentum change.
Anyone who thinks there is a significant upside to this current housing climate is deluded.
Brown Nose - best of luck to you.
Guest
Posts: n/a
Indeed, you did. However, it seems that the landscape has changed somewhat in the last two years, whereas you're vehemently claiming that the market has a reasonable upside.
My point is that transactions are at a historical low. In any market, sustained volume crunches are a pre-cursor to a downturn. Factor a large-scale Chinese default in the property sector, combined with a hike in interest rates, and you don't need much imagination to see where it is heading.
Interest rate hikes are a certainty. A collapsing Chinese development sector seems a likelihood.
The former will remove the easy money that fuelled the low-mid range market in the last 4 years. That will trigger an abundance of properties on the market and a shallower correction. The latter will cause a full-on crash across the sector. Both combined will be comedy.
My opinions only. But, I believe that if you bought in the last two years, you're going to be sat in negative equity for an awfully long time.
My point is that transactions are at a historical low. In any market, sustained volume crunches are a pre-cursor to a downturn. Factor a large-scale Chinese default in the property sector, combined with a hike in interest rates, and you don't need much imagination to see where it is heading.
Interest rate hikes are a certainty. A collapsing Chinese development sector seems a likelihood.
The former will remove the easy money that fuelled the low-mid range market in the last 4 years. That will trigger an abundance of properties on the market and a shallower correction. The latter will cause a full-on crash across the sector. Both combined will be comedy.
My opinions only. But, I believe that if you bought in the last two years, you're going to be sat in negative equity for an awfully long time.
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: HONG KONG
Posts: 100
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
With all this great knowledge ETOPS you must have made a fortune in the property market! Seeing as I have and I am simply 'deluded'
Put it in your diary and remind me in 5 years that I am deluded.
Property has cycles, The market was too hot a few years ago (I didn't buy then) if this one starts going down too far, that what the government measures are in place for, to stabilize the market.
Put it in your diary and remind me in 5 years that I am deluded.
Property has cycles, The market was too hot a few years ago (I didn't buy then) if this one starts going down too far, that what the government measures are in place for, to stabilize the market.
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 1,539
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Brown Nose. In my experience in life, those who boast about 'making a fortune' are invariably the ones who haven't. And even if you have, do you really need to keep going on about it so much? Most of us who have been here for a decade or more have 'made a fortune', we just don't really feel the need to tell anyone about it. I really don't think you have much idea as to how you come across to others.... 
Guest
Posts: n/a
Trafalgar
Quite.
Stay classy, Brown Nose.
Anyone who has put their housing allowance to good use since 2003 has amassed a significant amount of wealth.
By the index, a HUGE amount of that wealth accumulation has been in the last 5 years. It's been a spike. It hasn't taken any skill or significant knowledge. It will come down, and in far less than five years. The differentiator between those with knowledge/savvy/wherewithal and those without will become apparent quite soon.
What I'd ask anyone (though perhaps not to the abhorrently smug) is why take the risk? The market has plateaued, so by not being in the market, you're not losing out. With questionable up-side potential, and enormous downside risk, does it make much sense not to be in cash right now? Time will tell.
PS. If I'd made an actual 'fortune', I wouldn't be here. Those that have, and are still here; well, yes - we all know them!
Stay classy, Brown Nose.
Anyone who has put their housing allowance to good use since 2003 has amassed a significant amount of wealth.
By the index, a HUGE amount of that wealth accumulation has been in the last 5 years. It's been a spike. It hasn't taken any skill or significant knowledge. It will come down, and in far less than five years. The differentiator between those with knowledge/savvy/wherewithal and those without will become apparent quite soon.
What I'd ask anyone (though perhaps not to the abhorrently smug) is why take the risk? The market has plateaued, so by not being in the market, you're not losing out. With questionable up-side potential, and enormous downside risk, does it make much sense not to be in cash right now? Time will tell.
PS. If I'd made an actual 'fortune', I wouldn't be here. Those that have, and are still here; well, yes - we all know them!
Last edited by ETOPS240; 24th Mar 2014 at 08:02.
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Above the Gay Bar
Posts: 109
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Bubbles
Brown Nose…would you agree that the HKG housing market is in a bubble? If not, why not? If so, can you find an example of a bubble in any market that has not burst?
So far, all market bubbles I am aware of have eventually burst. If there ARE examples of market bubbles which have slowly declined or plateaued, I am sure they are in the very small minority.
The Aussie housing market is a classic case…driven by supply and demand…YES, but demand for what? NOT demand for 30 years of shelter for your family…sometime in the early to mid 90s, the demand for housing switched to capital gain as a driving factor, and bookshops and primetime TV suddenly were filled with ways to quickly make money out of your family home…something previously unheard of. Like all (or maybe 'almost all') bubbles, it will collapse…and no amount of spruiking or manipulation of the 'fundamentals' from the Prime Minister, Chief Economists or the RBA will arrest the fall. People will just herd out of the market.
lmh
So far, all market bubbles I am aware of have eventually burst. If there ARE examples of market bubbles which have slowly declined or plateaued, I am sure they are in the very small minority.
The Aussie housing market is a classic case…driven by supply and demand…YES, but demand for what? NOT demand for 30 years of shelter for your family…sometime in the early to mid 90s, the demand for housing switched to capital gain as a driving factor, and bookshops and primetime TV suddenly were filled with ways to quickly make money out of your family home…something previously unheard of. Like all (or maybe 'almost all') bubbles, it will collapse…and no amount of spruiking or manipulation of the 'fundamentals' from the Prime Minister, Chief Economists or the RBA will arrest the fall. People will just herd out of the market.
lmh
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Here
Posts: 343
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Anyone buying now in Hong Kong obviously loves a good risk as this article below explains.
China's Credit Pipeline Slams Shut: Companies Scramble For The Last Drops Of Liquidity | Zero Hedge
China's Credit Pipeline Slams Shut: Companies Scramble For The Last Drops Of Liquidity | Zero Hedge
