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CX Aircraft Orders

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Old 18th Mar 2011, 17:00
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Dont get confused between training and experience. Cadet/low time SO inductees will never gain the same level of experience that high time GA or Military pilots have. All the fancy training vehicles that have been dreamed up over the past number of years are an attempt to cover the fact that the baseline has significantly dipped. This is not unique to CX. The cost of entering this wonderful profession has skyrocketed from what it was 20 years ago and less and less kids are chosing aviation because of it.

Talk to any ex-military or higher time GA pilot and he'll recount numerous stories where "by the grace of god", I survived that particular incident. Cadet experience is that last 5 miles - established on the ILS - fighting off that dastardly variable crosswind.
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 03:39
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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Crwjerk

To answer your question: No.

Do you really need me to explain the difference between thousands of hours of previous experience and 40 sectors of LUFUS.....do you?

Read bm330's post.

Last edited by raven11; 19th Mar 2011 at 04:00.
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 07:20
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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Raven,

People. Hours alone don't paint the whole picture of the type of candidate Cathay has hired in recent years, or the type of pilot they are seeking now.
There is no doubt that in the A scale days, and in the early B scale days, the benefits offered by Cathay were so good, that the package spoke for itself and attracted every experienced pilot on the planet.

Ok Raven, as I am not in the group of people deemed good enough to join CX I thought I would reply to your posts. I joined, shall we say MID B scale in 2001 and as a S/O. I had many thousands of hours ranging from Chipmunks, piper malibu, L29 Delfin, L39 Albatros, Lears 35 and 45. As I am deemed inexperienced according to you I would like to know what sort of experience you would like to see my generation of employees having.

You also stated that hours alone don't paint the whole picture. Well what type of candidate should we be employing? You smell of ex military and your train of thought is still firmly still in the military. If you are ex military then were you not employed wet behind the ears young rookie pilot and trained up to operate an aircraft in a certain environment, then what is the difference of CX employing a wet behind the ears rookie pilot and training him/her upto a standard to operate a CX aircraft in a relevant environment.

We all had to start somewhere and today it is common for airlines/military to take on zero hour guys and train them up, you just don't seem to accept it. I think your time would be better spent tackling this with the bean counters and management rather than trying to belittle and have a far superior attitude towards fellow pilots.

So tell us, what is your problem????
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 08:14
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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badairsucker,

It actually smells more like Raven is either,1. An A-scaler who is crying into his beer in Wanchai because he is no longer entitled to payrises or 2. An ex-A scaler who wished he never took the B-Scale package.

Whatever it is, the smell in the -400 cockpits these days is sickening. I wish, along with the retirement of the ageing fleet, they would also get rid of these ex-RAF old-timers at the same time. Best of the Best? More like Best of the worst.

Talk to any ex-military or higher time GA pilot and he'll recount numerous stories where "by the grace of god", I survived that particular incident.
The above quote is exactly how NOT to be a pilot. This is absolutely the worst attitude you can get in a pilot and also the most dangerous one. These type of pilots have no place in this industry. Shall I conclude from this statement that we want to be hiring pilots who have learned to throw the rule-book out the window and who operate on a wing and a prayer? F-me
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 13:11
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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Bad Air

Your previous experience is excellent. Are you suggesting that this hard earned experience is worth nothing? I’m certainly not suggesting it. Good for you Badair….I mean it..good for you.


If I smell ex-military, that’s because I am….and I’ve always been proud of that….do I need to apologize for this experience? I also flew commercially for five years prior to joining Cathay. So I’ve seen both systems…..I guess I swing both ways. I can tell you that both systems have their good points and bad; both systems produce excellent pilots. But let’s not sell ourselves short is the point I’m trying to make. That, just like any other profession, it takes time to learn the ropes and produce an experienced pilot.


I don’t think experienced pilots are more superior to ex cadets. We all need to start somewhere, and ex cadets will someday be the experienced pilots. I have flown with many ex cadet Captains in Cathay, and I have been very impressed. The Cathay system has produced some very good skippers.


When it comes to hiring new pilots, however, I just happen to think that experienced pilots are….how shall I put it…more experienced. Do we seriously need to debate the merits of experienced/no experience? Are the bean counters right? Are 300 hours the same as 5000 hours?


Betpump….well….some very angry words coming from you my young friend. The topic of flying experience gets under your skin and brings out the keyboard warrior in you? In fact, the ex-RAF old timers really get up your nose? To you, they stink and are sickening to fly with…the Company should cleanse themselves of the lot! What was it you called them…the best of the worst? Oh, how cerebral and objective you seem. Must have had a good laugh when you pressed send….


Your over heated post speaks volumes. Your temper and angry words are not characteristics that lend themselves to good CRM. It would appear that you have a chip on your shoulder…..something to prove…..and that Betpump is the type of attitude that does not belong in a cockpit.


However, I do agree with sentiment expressed in the last word of your post.

Last edited by raven11; 19th Mar 2011 at 13:29.
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 15:00
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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Getting back to the subject of Aircraft orders & CMD's

Following on from my previous post on PG1 (Net gain A/c in CX)
Sorry about the mistake! At least Dick makes some as well.

Right now as we speak airlines are hiring all over.

Ryan Air - have just lost 260 in Dec and another 250 are giving notice. Virgin & BA are having problems finding experienced crew on type.

The ME is very short at Mo & many are not allowed to take leave.

Cathay are dreaming when they think they can fill the plug with cadets. They are 160 short at present and this will go up rapidly.
I hear next year that will be tipple.

DE pilots have two happen and very fast!

Those joining CX as Cadets be warned P2X counts nothing if you apply for a job else where. Do cannot legally opp-orate the heading knob in cruise, how sad is that really! You'll be making the beds for 5yrs & waiting + 20yrs for CMD. Let alone live in a box forever...
Your F/O upgrade will be stepped on by DEFO either on full Expat terms or on a base. (later most likely)

To get enough experience to move you'd need to wait at least 6yrs.
Be carefull of being CX's slave for 6yrs just to get free training etc.
Or at least leave within 6months of joining to get a GA job or pay for a 320 /737 rating to go ME etc..

As a DE pilot in HK at least u can get full expat benefits. But then u risk not being able to go on a base for a very long time. (no at all at the mo)

Why don't u join BA if u have experience, or Ryan air if u don't then jump to ME for a few yrs..

IMHO - wait and only join CX if u have too at a Expat pilot level or on a base but beware funny things are happening & will continue to happen here.

Ok CMD's Times

NET GROWTH by 2020 = 41 A/c (say 50) to be optimistic)

By 2020 there will be 229 Cpt retiring & 50*7.5 =375 total new slots about 600 slots in the next 10 years. About 60 a year on ave min. (fast 4 next 4 yrs then abit slower after)

So currently CMD @ Snr no. 930 + 600 = 1530 then sadly it will slow to about 50-70 per year until 2030 after as it a very young airline & very little growth will happen in 2020-2030 until the new Runway is made as slots will be full. New Airport can only be complete by 2030 earliest I'm told by an engineer involved. If done at all.
No people reaching 65yrs in each year. Fact.
Retire Year 2011 5 2012 8 2013 11 2014 12 2015 20 2016 27 2017 20 2018 24 2019 44 2020 58 2021 53 2022 51 2023 58 2024 57 2025 58 2026 47 2027 70 2028 62 2029 73 2030 76
Very interestingly this number will suddenly increases to about 150 retiring per year after 2030 with a new runway coming and more expansion there will be a sudden need for Captains & pilots again. So those on Cos99 expect Cx to beg you to reconsider working to 65.

Just for info 12 CMD have left from Jan 10 - Jan 11.


Basically if you seniority number is X & less than expect CMD in yr Y
1100 2012
1300 2015
1500 2020
1700 2024
1900 2027
2100 2030
2300 2032
2500 2033

So expect CMD time will be 13-14 yrs till mid decade then to extend to +-18 yrs until 2020 then 20+ yrs until 2030.

Now this is based on Net gain a 50 A/c by 2020 and 2% growth in 20's and 4% growth in 30's. And everyone working to 65.

Some smart & not so smart folks may leave earlier. But I highly doubt more a/c "can" come. If HKA are successful the growth will be less thus longer wait to CMD. If they are not CMD could be much "worse" because they'll try to do Direct entry CMD again.

The main driver that will effect CMD in HK at the moment, is outsourcing cargo to AHK & JV. Also F/O's on the base not wanting to come to HK and remain on the base my guess is about 15%.
About 8% of F/O's will be Cat B,D. +- 10% will leave prior to 65. Thus expect things for HK based F/O's to improve by about 30% in the short term.

Anyway the main problem here is the courts will get worse in HK as the Chinese (AC) take more of a major stake in CX. At present no basis are available to get your home country protection. HK based pilots risk reducing expat terms & hyper inflation & really bad rosters to come.
I heard that Cx aim to roster everyone to 90 hrs is the new target. Do that and only 6wks a yr life gets pretty dull.

Bottom line if you came here to have a good life on ULH with plenty of time off & disposable income and quick time to CMD. Forget it!!

Why not use the current shortage worldwide of pilots to get a good job in your home country. Or get quick CMD time with HKA or ME then go home. But becarefull of CX as this flashy aircraft order of 91 a/c will only benefit those that joined from 2000-2005. (about 700 pilots)

Do u really want to be a cruise pilot making beds & doing radio work & not being able to touch anything for 4+ yrs on empty promises of quick upgrade time. Only to go home to a depressive box eating cheap food and only getting 21 days leave a yr. (as an S/O) and having no temp or permanent bases)

Good luck to you but be warned..

That's it from me until next month..























Last edited by crewsunite; 20th Mar 2011 at 00:58.
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Old 19th Mar 2011, 15:16
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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I love this Quoted from CX wannabe by Chinabeached

Chinabeach = Well said indeed.. !!

Flashy new Jet's lets go!! Why not enjoy a few years in GA guys and in the mean time look for a better job.

This Loan thing is a big unknown. I heard of a 49' whom had his HSBC bank account frozen. (Swire can do funny things becarefull they are pirates) Just ask those instructors in ADL whom where promised Expat terms in return for 4 yrs instruction.. That's all gone. These guys take great pleasure in not sticking to their word.

The middle managers make loads (bonuses) from being bad guys because those above them don't pay them well enough otherwise.

We could write a book or three infact start by reading John's..

Chinabeach = Wrote...

Also on hold since 2008.

I have many friends at CX and have all the CoS paperwork to compare what they are offering us against what we were told we would be offered. In a nutshell, it's about 1/3 of the package we should have been offered.

The devil is in the details. The housing allowance: not marked against fluctuations in the housing market in HKG as the others have. The "forgivable loan"... Now would you take out ANY loan without knowing the entire [legal] details? Is it taxable? Is it paid in full or month by month for how long? Is it paid in cash? Too many variables and to me it's code for "bond" that is illegal in HKG hence tarted up to be different. In the pre-interview presentation we were told that CX offer the (original) housing allowance as they firmly believe expats coming to HK should not suffer a loss of lifestyle in their move. Seems they don't quite believe that anymore. Funny how a record breaking profit can change opinions.

And the interview: So we have to reinterview to a far, FAR higher standard than these CEP's did only to be sat next them in ADL for 3 months? A rule for them and a rule for us? And did the CEPS have to fly a 747 Classic on raw data, no FD's or AT from Kai Tak, following the backcourse, OEI procedures, etc, etc. The DESO's of yesterday went to AD for approx 28 days, even those without ATP's / ATPL's but now "we" need 3 months?

And what of seniority? We'll have a number lower than a kid with ZERO flying hours. Potentially never getting a Cmd (depending on your age of course. Latest AOA figures suggest 18-25 years from memory, ie the AOA updates my friends send me. Correct me if I'm wrong). How does that make you feel?

$35,170 per month is dependent on flying (loose term) 84 hrs a month. My understanding is that you will very, very rarely make beds or eat sandwiches this much as SO: typically 70 hrs a month. (Someone confirm? This is what my friends tell me). So for every hour worked under 84 hrs per month = $3,517 LESS per month from $35,170. Now....reduce that again by a ballpark 15% for tax. Buy an apartment then the housing allowance just became taxable as well.

"Discretionary Bonus" of 13th month pay became the norm when management decided that the 13th month bonus was interpreted by them as a pay rise and hence they were not obliged to pay it: and so they didn't and won't if at their "discretion" they don't feel like it. The AOA fought this and lost. BUT! If you are in management then you'll receive a bonus even when you are caught for price fixing or screwing up the fuel hedging costing the airline MILLIONS. Go figure. Check out other threads on the bonuses these guys give themselves.

Those in upper management making these decisions have ruined a once great, once the best airline in the world. Legacy? Wow... they'll receive HUGE bonuses for what they've done. How proud they must be to destroy something that was regarded as so great. If you've seen what CX has become over the past 3-5 years then you'll know what they are capable of.

The HR team have been nothing but absolutely pleasure to deal with over the last (very nearly!) 3 years. Thank you.

We each must make our own decision. Trust me there are FAR better jobs out there if you search. We deserve what we interviewed for. Anything less is an insult.

For me, it's a DEFINITE NO WAY. It's not the money. It's the integrity of the once great airline that has no integrity what's so ever to have treated us & it's present pilot body the way they have. I've worked too hard to be treated like this. I won't be wasting their time or mine to sit in a Godforsaken uncomfortable as hell A330 Y class bucket seat for xx hours to be told my value as a pilot is worth only 30% of what it was (nearly) 3 years ago. After all, this is aviation and there'll be a kid praying I don't take the offer so he/she can do it for less anyway.

Pay bananas you get monkeys.
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Old 20th Mar 2011, 13:56
  #48 (permalink)  
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Thanks for the numbers! Great post.
Finally a substantial argument for the sad reality in Cathay :

RA 65 = no commands for a veeeeeery long time
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Old 21st Mar 2011, 00:17
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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My bet is on RA 70 or even 'on condition' before the decade is out.
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Old 21st Mar 2011, 15:36
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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Please Daddy can I have one???? (or 14?)

Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet unveiled | Photos
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Old 29th Apr 2011, 07:40
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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How many pilots do CX have right now?
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Old 29th Apr 2011, 09:34
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Not enough judging by recent roster disruptions.
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Old 29th Apr 2011, 13:04
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betpump5
You Haven't got a clue.
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