How bad this time?
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How bad this time?
Not so long ago I posted about the commencement of an imminent and protracted collapse of world markets and the very real possibility of sovereign debt default- of a magnitude far larger and damaging than the US Subprime-which was round #1
A corollary of this is a contraction of economies, slackening/drying up of demand and a severe prolonged recession-nay-Depression.
After the post a few comments made light of the post (fair enough- we all love a joke) and derided it BEACAUSE the crash didn't happen that day or the next.
Well in light of recent events the probability is increasing by the hour that the top of the Bear Market rally of 2009/2010 is in and Round #2 has begun.
I urge all of you who have any equity exposure to liquidate and move into cash-a bit of gold perhaps- and most certainly get rid of your default Fidelity Funds and move into cash.
This is in all likelihood the LAST chance of getting a reasonable price for your equities for the next few years. Minimum.
Before this Bear Market runs its course expect a Dow Jones in triple figures!
Monster
A corollary of this is a contraction of economies, slackening/drying up of demand and a severe prolonged recession-nay-Depression.
After the post a few comments made light of the post (fair enough- we all love a joke) and derided it BEACAUSE the crash didn't happen that day or the next.
Well in light of recent events the probability is increasing by the hour that the top of the Bear Market rally of 2009/2010 is in and Round #2 has begun.
I urge all of you who have any equity exposure to liquidate and move into cash-a bit of gold perhaps- and most certainly get rid of your default Fidelity Funds and move into cash.
This is in all likelihood the LAST chance of getting a reasonable price for your equities for the next few years. Minimum.
Before this Bear Market runs its course expect a Dow Jones in triple figures!
Monster
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MORON 330... please go play on another forum... The Greek crisis and the weakening of the euro have absolutely nothing to do with your precious little elliot wave rambles.
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Perhaps replies are a little harsh but the overwhelming reaction is that after the GFC there was a bull market and that some correction was necessary.
The doomsayers in this scenario are inevitable (ie look at Marc Faber - if you go around saying there will be a fall, one day you will inevitably be correct) but the overall trend was, is and remains upwards but hopefully at a more realistic pace.
The doomsayers in this scenario are inevitable (ie look at Marc Faber - if you go around saying there will be a fall, one day you will inevitably be correct) but the overall trend was, is and remains upwards but hopefully at a more realistic pace.
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Originally Posted by monster330
You're a credit to the aviation industry
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Funny similarity here.
A US bio-team synthetically creates "life from life", as their motto goes, and naysayers from Canada's ETC Group (unfortunate acronym) respond with this:
"Synthetic biology is a high-risk, profit-driven field, building organisms out of parts that are still poorly understood."
Poorly understood by whom? Because the ETC don't understand the complex and internal structure of biological science does not invalidate it.
Back to the markets, which are driven by emotion which is patterned and complex, but readable, unlike tea leaves:
Markets follow distinctive albeit sometimes confusing patterns. That you don't understand this is as immaterial to the reality of markets as it is for the ETC to say "we don't understand complex biology" so it must be inherently wrong, not to mention dangerous to utter these words!
The bellwether of today's sharemarket, the Dow, has up until recently traced out almost exactly the same pattern as the Dow did after the (initial) crash of 1929. There were many aftershocks, many secondary crashes, most of which were far worse than the initial crash.
The initial retracement back then was a 50% correction, which the media of the day reported as proof the crash was over. Pretty much immediately after that timely but wrong call, the market lost roughly another 90% of its shattered value.
How does a market lose 90% when it's down half already? Well, 90% of 50% is about 95% of the original 100. It happened. Look it up.
Today's correction has been 62% and, as then, the mainstream media recognize this as the signal for the crash to be over. Of course, they're always right. That's why you were buying real estate, isn't it? Nonetheless, the probability is very high for major downward movement in the immediate future.
For today's naysayers, this is not "understood".
PS How does this thread have anything to do with aviation? Are you serious??? Were you awake in 2008/9?
A US bio-team synthetically creates "life from life", as their motto goes, and naysayers from Canada's ETC Group (unfortunate acronym) respond with this:
"Synthetic biology is a high-risk, profit-driven field, building organisms out of parts that are still poorly understood."
Poorly understood by whom? Because the ETC don't understand the complex and internal structure of biological science does not invalidate it.
Back to the markets, which are driven by emotion which is patterned and complex, but readable, unlike tea leaves:
Markets follow distinctive albeit sometimes confusing patterns. That you don't understand this is as immaterial to the reality of markets as it is for the ETC to say "we don't understand complex biology" so it must be inherently wrong, not to mention dangerous to utter these words!
The bellwether of today's sharemarket, the Dow, has up until recently traced out almost exactly the same pattern as the Dow did after the (initial) crash of 1929. There were many aftershocks, many secondary crashes, most of which were far worse than the initial crash.
The initial retracement back then was a 50% correction, which the media of the day reported as proof the crash was over. Pretty much immediately after that timely but wrong call, the market lost roughly another 90% of its shattered value.
How does a market lose 90% when it's down half already? Well, 90% of 50% is about 95% of the original 100. It happened. Look it up.
Today's correction has been 62% and, as then, the mainstream media recognize this as the signal for the crash to be over. Of course, they're always right. That's why you were buying real estate, isn't it? Nonetheless, the probability is very high for major downward movement in the immediate future.
For today's naysayers, this is not "understood".
PS How does this thread have anything to do with aviation? Are you serious??? Were you awake in 2008/9?
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I don't think you blokes should be sneering at monster330... he just could be right, you know... 
Clarke and Dawes ask the million dollar questions - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
Transcript - if it's all too fast for you...
The 7.30 Report - ABC
Clarke and Dawes ask the million dollar questions - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
Transcript - if it's all too fast for you...
The 7.30 Report - ABC
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All kidding aside, I also believe we are in for a big correction. DOW in the triple digits? Keep dreaming. But, if you look at the P/E ratios of the Dow, they are quite overvalued. Most people suggest that they should be around 14/1, and are currently around 22/1. If you follow this logic, then the DOW should be closer to 6000. I believe that this may happen, mostly depending on if the Euro zone can stabilize itself. I am selling out of my equities, but I am not a gold bug like some others. Good luck to all, I'm sure our results will vary!
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Originally Posted by 4PW's
How does this thread have anything to do with aviation? Are you serious??? Were you awake in 2008/9?
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You will be wise to take the advice of Monster. Open your eyes for Gods sake, the crash is imminent. You don't have to look far, or research too deeply these days to see that we are in for a rough ride. Look at the latest evidence, 750 billion is chucked in to "rescue" Greece, sorry that should be French banks, and within a couple of days the markets were down again.
No amount of bail out money will fix this sick system, it's had it's day, we will have to bleed before an alternative comes along.
No amount of bail out money will fix this sick system, it's had it's day, we will have to bleed before an alternative comes along.
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Good article here in the Telegraph. You can forget the toilet paper SCMP for worthwhile news on this subject.
The euro crisis is a judgment on the great lie of 'Europe' - Telegraph
The euro crisis is a judgment on the great lie of 'Europe' - Telegraph
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And some more,
Bloodbath | zero hedge
US Senate Rubber-Stamps the Dictatorship of the Big Banks
Dow Theorist Richard Russell: Sell Everything, You Won't Recognize America By The End Of The Year
Bloodbath | zero hedge
US Senate Rubber-Stamps the Dictatorship of the Big Banks
Dow Theorist Richard Russell: Sell Everything, You Won't Recognize America By The End Of The Year
Last edited by EXEZY; 25th May 2010 at 05:45.
