Next Financial crash looming?
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Yoke, one of the best posts here, IMHO 
The " experts " for instance, tipped AUD parity with the USD, and beyond, last year and look what happened
Then they tipped the first downward movement was a " blip ", look what happened.
Now the experts are telling us there is another crash on the way, I guess we will wait and see what happens.
The thing about these experts, is that they have massive amounts to gain when there is a crash, because they are the ones with all the spare money to buy cheap shares.
The " experts " for instance, tipped AUD parity with the USD, and beyond, last year and look what happened
Then they tipped the first downward movement was a " blip ", look what happened.
Now the experts are telling us there is another crash on the way, I guess we will wait and see what happens.
The thing about these experts, is that they have massive amounts to gain when there is a crash, because they are the ones with all the spare money to buy cheap shares.
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Buy and read one book; 'Fooled by Randomness' by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
When you have finished, read it again. If you still don't understand, study your Elliot waves closely and good luck!
ps. watch out for swans of a different colour.
When you have finished, read it again. If you still don't understand, study your Elliot waves closely and good luck!
ps. watch out for swans of a different colour.
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Location: On a foreign shore trying a new wine diet. So far, I've lost 3days!
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As Warren Buffet so succinctly put it, there are only 2 rules to investment:
Rule 1: Never lose money.
Rule 2: Don't forget Rule 1
On the beach
Rule 1: Never lose money.
Rule 2: Don't forget Rule 1
On the beach
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Elliott Wave Theory
Prechter at least seems to have predicted recent happenings with relative accuracy. Although I'm new to the technical side of investment, EWT seems to have merit. The ebbs and flows of social mood are the drivers of buying and selling, not company fundamentals (although they are highly relevant in their own right). In late Feb 09, 95+% of traders surveyed were bears, and what do you know......we started a steep bull run. Elliott correctly predicted this at the end of Feb, and advised subscribers to cover their shorts.
Now, given the extreme majority of bulls in the market, he's predicting 'it' has run out of steam....let's see what happens over the next few months. Check out this free glimpse of his current bearish outlook....
"Black Monday: Ancient History Or Imminent Future?" by EWI, FSO Editorial 10/30/2009
lmh
Now, given the extreme majority of bulls in the market, he's predicting 'it' has run out of steam....let's see what happens over the next few months. Check out this free glimpse of his current bearish outlook....
"Black Monday: Ancient History Or Imminent Future?" by EWI, FSO Editorial 10/30/2009
lmh
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Buffett??
As a side note, I used to listen to all Warren Buffett's musings as gospel, but lately, I fear his patriotism has clouded his judgment somewhat!
YouTube - Warren Buffett is Bullish on America's Future
Complete failure to accept his beloved U.S. of A is heading for a rough few decades (possibly centuries!).
lmh
YouTube - Warren Buffett is Bullish on America's Future
Complete failure to accept his beloved U.S. of A is heading for a rough few decades (possibly centuries!).
lmh
Last edited by luvmuhud; 2nd Nov 2009 at 12:25.
There are such wonderful theories out there, such masterful economic sciences, whole economic universities of study and knowledge, Professors of every branch imaginable of economic variation, such fantastic fundamental analysis, such exciting technical analysis, super dooper software analysis programs...and yet, nobody was able to identify and stop a simple house loan scam in the USA that eventually brought the world to its knees...
Have we forgotten that in the long run, the essence of economics, business and therefore investing comes down to the simple relationship between...
Supply and Demand
...no more, no less..?
QED
Have we forgotten that in the long run, the essence of economics, business and therefore investing comes down to the simple relationship between...
Supply and Demand
...no more, no less..?
QED
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...and yet, nobody was able to identify and stop a simple house loan scam in the USA that eventually brought the world to its knees...
Have we forgotten that in the long run, the essence of economics, business and therefore investing comes down to the simple relationship between...
Supply and Demand
...no more, no less..?
Supply and Demand
...no more, no less..?
Another illustration is the Australian property market, which I believe is in the final stages of a financial mania. Spruikers will argue that the reasons for a median house price so far above the average wage is purely supply and demand, which in the strict sense it is, but the demand is not there for the reasons that they will provide. The demand is driven by social mood, and the desire to build wealth through capital gain, or rental yield. As long as houses are being purchased with this reason in mind, and not for the practical purpose of 30 years of shelter, the demand will 'artificially' drive prices higher. This is a normal bull market cycle, but what is occuring 'down there' at the moment, is a mania as a result of extremely low interest rates, low lending standards, and an extreme of social optimism.
So, if using supply and demand to dictate your investment decisions, one must take into account where the demand is coming from, and the timeframe for your 'out'.....as with $140 oil, the 'decline' in demand may come much sooner than you think.
lmh
Last edited by luvmuhud; 2nd May 2010 at 13:53.
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Wall Street's Naked Swindle
Rolling Stone Magazine's Matt Taibbi has written an amazing article which exposes the truth behind the woes that are the American economy.
This article is really worth a read...
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/;kw=[3351,11470]
If the link doesn't work, just google "Rolling Stone Magazine", go to Politics: Wall street's Naked Swindle.
Illuminating!
This article is really worth a read...
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/;kw=[3351,11470]
If the link doesn't work, just google "Rolling Stone Magazine", go to Politics: Wall street's Naked Swindle.
Illuminating!
So, if using supply and demand to dictate your investment decisions, one must take into account where the demand is coming from, and the timeframe for your 'out'.....as with $140 oil, the 'decline' in demand may come much sooner than you think.
As with the $140 oil, supply was artificially constrained. Unfortunately for the suppliers, they could not get supply fixing agreements to stick for long periods due to their individual greed. In the longer run, the excess of supply over demand brought the price back to more realistic levels.
With any commodity or service, over the longer term the supply demand equation will always win the day and determine price. But, too many of us get caught up with short term market fashionable beliefs. We don't think far ahead enough to see the real story and macro-trends when formulating our investment strategy.
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Time to go back in time and do some research. A good starting point would be the creation of the Federal Reserve Act in 1910 (Jeckill Island) and its implementation in Dec. 1913. Similar story with the Bank of England and any other central bank for that matter.
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws". -Mayer Amschel (Bauer) Rothschild
"I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, ...The man that controls Britain's money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply". -Nathan Mayer (Bauer) Rothschild
"I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated in the hands of a few men.
We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the world… no longer a government of free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of small groups of dominant men". -President Woodrow Wilson in 1913 after signing the Federal Reserve Act into law.
The crash is coming, this monetary system is finished. Look at Greece. Next on the line will be Portugal followed by Spain, Ireland, the UK (wait for the end of the elections) and then the US. The money printing frenzy, while giving the impression of a recovery will only make it worse. It's just worthless paper. Get rid of it while it's still (artificially) worth something, it won't last much longer. The Elliot Wave theorists and all the other trend manipulators are only there to lure everybody deeper into the money fraud. Trust them at your own peril.
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws". -Mayer Amschel (Bauer) Rothschild
"I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, ...The man that controls Britain's money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply". -Nathan Mayer (Bauer) Rothschild
"I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated in the hands of a few men.
We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the world… no longer a government of free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of small groups of dominant men". -President Woodrow Wilson in 1913 after signing the Federal Reserve Act into law.
The crash is coming, this monetary system is finished. Look at Greece. Next on the line will be Portugal followed by Spain, Ireland, the UK (wait for the end of the elections) and then the US. The money printing frenzy, while giving the impression of a recovery will only make it worse. It's just worthless paper. Get rid of it while it's still (artificially) worth something, it won't last much longer. The Elliot Wave theorists and all the other trend manipulators are only there to lure everybody deeper into the money fraud. Trust them at your own peril.
Last edited by alvega; 5th May 2010 at 00:38.
"The end of the world is nigh!"
"The world ends tomorrow!"
After a long and fruitful life I am just starting to think that maybe these naysayers have got it wrong....is it possible that I will serve out my last remaining days and not be witness to the end of the world as we know it?
Somehow history seems to record that human beings just get on with business after experiencing some of the most unbelievable events...
I have also observed that some of the best businessmen seem to be totally unencumbered with worries about the dangers of quarks and the Large Hadron Collider.
Perhaps we could help ourselves by considering not what could possibly happen, but what is likely to happen?
In that thought is the realization that we can do absolutely nothing about the consequences of what could possibly happen, but we can benefit greatly by taking advantage of foreseeing what is likely to happen.
"The world ends tomorrow!"
After a long and fruitful life I am just starting to think that maybe these naysayers have got it wrong....is it possible that I will serve out my last remaining days and not be witness to the end of the world as we know it?
Somehow history seems to record that human beings just get on with business after experiencing some of the most unbelievable events...
I have also observed that some of the best businessmen seem to be totally unencumbered with worries about the dangers of quarks and the Large Hadron Collider.
Perhaps we could help ourselves by considering not what could possibly happen, but what is likely to happen?
In that thought is the realization that we can do absolutely nothing about the consequences of what could possibly happen, but we can benefit greatly by taking advantage of foreseeing what is likely to happen.
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Somehow history seems to record that human beings just get on with business after experiencing some of the most unbelievable events...
