Time to Passenger Command - 17 Yrs
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Time to Passenger Command - 17 Yrs
Most folk aspire to a Passenger Command.
(For those unaware, CX will offer you a Freighter Command, but the pay and conditions are so poor that as a new joiner you can achieve this with less than 2 yrs experience, if you can get through the course).
How long to a passenger command then?
CX have never acheved more than about 100 commands a year. Of these, about 20 are on the freighter, leaving 80 Pax Commands Per Year.
There are just shy of 1400 pilots that are not captains, so as a new joiner, this is the number of commands that need to take place before you get your shot at a pax command. 1400@80 per year comes in at:
17 years to a CX Passenger Command
This is conservative, for sure - perhaps CX will manage to increase the rate of command training. Bear in mind also that an increase in Retirement Age is around the corner which will increase time to command.
Milly
(For those unaware, CX will offer you a Freighter Command, but the pay and conditions are so poor that as a new joiner you can achieve this with less than 2 yrs experience, if you can get through the course).
How long to a passenger command then?
CX have never acheved more than about 100 commands a year. Of these, about 20 are on the freighter, leaving 80 Pax Commands Per Year.
There are just shy of 1400 pilots that are not captains, so as a new joiner, this is the number of commands that need to take place before you get your shot at a pax command. 1400@80 per year comes in at:
17 years to a CX Passenger Command
This is conservative, for sure - perhaps CX will manage to increase the rate of command training. Bear in mind also that an increase in Retirement Age is around the corner which will increase time to command.
Milly
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That was then, this is now.
True, but is that useful information for a new joiner?
In fact if you want a Freighter Command, 18 months will do it.
As for passenger commands, granted, 10 years is accurate, for those achieving it today having joined 10 years ago.
The numbers would suggest significantly longer for someone joining today.
If you are thinking of joining today, I would assume closer to 17 years to a pax command.
Milly
In fact if you want a Freighter Command, 18 months will do it.
As for passenger commands, granted, 10 years is accurate, for those achieving it today having joined 10 years ago.
The numbers would suggest significantly longer for someone joining today.
If you are thinking of joining today, I would assume closer to 17 years to a pax command.
Milly
Last edited by Millstream; 2nd Apr 2007 at 10:20. Reason: Clarity
Strange mixture of misleading interpretations. Historically CX may have only given 100 commands a year but that was all that was required. Now they require more and are attempting to ramp it up (with varying success) so I reall feel that there is very little truth in your prediction using current info.
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Its a Question of Scale
Hi Busy B
Fair point: They will train the Captains they need.
What might that mean?
Back in 1995, there were perhaps 500(?) ahead of a new joiner - today there are 1400.
If the airline grows from 100 to 250 A/C in 10 years, then that would require 1000 more Captains. (Currently 750 Captains) - add 400 retirements to give the 1400 required to sustain 10 years to command.
What are the chances of 150 new aircraft and averaging 140 commands a year for the next 10 years?
Fairly slim I would suggest.
Easy to double in size starting from 40 A/C. Not so, starting from 100 A/C.
Milly
Fair point: They will train the Captains they need.
What might that mean?
Back in 1995, there were perhaps 500(?) ahead of a new joiner - today there are 1400.
If the airline grows from 100 to 250 A/C in 10 years, then that would require 1000 more Captains. (Currently 750 Captains) - add 400 retirements to give the 1400 required to sustain 10 years to command.
What are the chances of 150 new aircraft and averaging 140 commands a year for the next 10 years?
Fairly slim I would suggest. Easy to double in size starting from 40 A/C. Not so, starting from 100 A/C.
Milly
Last edited by Millstream; 2nd Apr 2007 at 11:41. Reason: Spelling
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millstream,
I think you are misusing numbers....and I should know;-)
There are just over 1300 FOs and SOs. With asian contagion followed by SARS etc the recent expansion rate has been slower than what is planned in future. With no expansion we still need almost 60CNs a year just for retirements. We are getting ULR aircraft and we all know that the crewing requirements are far higher than for 330s and regional 777s. So it isn't as simple as just looking at how many aircraft.
Over the next 10years it would be close to 600 retirements(just a guesstimate). So a new joiner would need expansion of 700 commands. Initially, it wouldn't affect the new joiner whether guys take commands on freighters or Pax fleet UNTIL guys junior to him start taking them. Also, and I can't prove this with numbers, anecdotally, freigther pilots are generally older on joining than pax fleet guys so command rate might increase in a few years with additional freighter pilot retirements.
As the airline gets bigger the retirment rate will also increase, albeit with a huge time lag. I know that it is almost 60 a year for the next 6-7 years but I haven't looked beyond.
RA60 would most definitely cost 2-4years on CN time...but then again, I keep reading CX propaganda that tells me that RA60 will speed up commands....not sure who is right on this one;-)
I think CX has planned in excess of 120commands this year. If we are say double the size in a decade, and still exanding at around the same %, we would need double the number of CNs...maybe 240 a year.
My point Millstream is that neither you or I know what Command time will be for a new joiner. I think your outlook is misrepresentative, but thats just my opinion. I think 10years is a good number to use as it is far enough away that it probably wont make a hell of a lot of difference to a new joiner than say 8 years of 12 years. I was told 6-7....but then they didn't know they were going to introduce ASL when I joined...that action cost me 2-3years.
Ask me again in 2017 and I will tell you who was right;-)
I think you are misusing numbers....and I should know;-)
There are just over 1300 FOs and SOs. With asian contagion followed by SARS etc the recent expansion rate has been slower than what is planned in future. With no expansion we still need almost 60CNs a year just for retirements. We are getting ULR aircraft and we all know that the crewing requirements are far higher than for 330s and regional 777s. So it isn't as simple as just looking at how many aircraft.
Over the next 10years it would be close to 600 retirements(just a guesstimate). So a new joiner would need expansion of 700 commands. Initially, it wouldn't affect the new joiner whether guys take commands on freighters or Pax fleet UNTIL guys junior to him start taking them. Also, and I can't prove this with numbers, anecdotally, freigther pilots are generally older on joining than pax fleet guys so command rate might increase in a few years with additional freighter pilot retirements.
As the airline gets bigger the retirment rate will also increase, albeit with a huge time lag. I know that it is almost 60 a year for the next 6-7 years but I haven't looked beyond.
RA60 would most definitely cost 2-4years on CN time...but then again, I keep reading CX propaganda that tells me that RA60 will speed up commands....not sure who is right on this one;-)
I think CX has planned in excess of 120commands this year. If we are say double the size in a decade, and still exanding at around the same %, we would need double the number of CNs...maybe 240 a year.
My point Millstream is that neither you or I know what Command time will be for a new joiner. I think your outlook is misrepresentative, but thats just my opinion. I think 10years is a good number to use as it is far enough away that it probably wont make a hell of a lot of difference to a new joiner than say 8 years of 12 years. I was told 6-7....but then they didn't know they were going to introduce ASL when I joined...that action cost me 2-3years.
Ask me again in 2017 and I will tell you who was right;-)
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10 years, so what.
Even 17 years; millstream, do you have any idea how long it takes at a major in the US?
If it's quick command you want, go to the LCCs.
I know guys who are F/Os after 7-8 years +, at a REGIONAL!!!
Even 17 years; millstream, do you have any idea how long it takes at a major in the US?
If it's quick command you want, go to the LCCs.
I know guys who are F/Os after 7-8 years +, at a REGIONAL!!!
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And another thing....
Back in 2000/2001 I had to work out for the AOA the financial effects of freighter deferment pay. If you are eligible to transfer back onto pax fleet but cx chooses to leave you on the base due manning requirements, then CX would top up your salary to HKG rates. Sort of similar to bypass pay.
Anyway, in the course of these calculations I worked out something very interesting. If you take Freighter FO, then transfer across after (3 or 4?) X years to pax FO and then move across to freighter command about 3 or 4 years before you would have got pax command, you will be financially better off than a colleague that stayed hkg based through SO/FO/CN. You do take a short term pay cut, but the fact that you are always 3 or 4 increments ahead of your pax colleagues is where you end up better financially. Obviously this ignores your basing/lifestyle requirements;-)
Guppy...the quicker you get your command, the less ERAS reports they will have on you;-)
Back in 2000/2001 I had to work out for the AOA the financial effects of freighter deferment pay. If you are eligible to transfer back onto pax fleet but cx chooses to leave you on the base due manning requirements, then CX would top up your salary to HKG rates. Sort of similar to bypass pay.
Anyway, in the course of these calculations I worked out something very interesting. If you take Freighter FO, then transfer across after (3 or 4?) X years to pax FO and then move across to freighter command about 3 or 4 years before you would have got pax command, you will be financially better off than a colleague that stayed hkg based through SO/FO/CN. You do take a short term pay cut, but the fact that you are always 3 or 4 increments ahead of your pax colleagues is where you end up better financially. Obviously this ignores your basing/lifestyle requirements;-)
Guppy...the quicker you get your command, the less ERAS reports they will have on you;-)
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That works well in a perfect world, but how many Americans have passed the upgrade on the freighter? I can tell you the number is infintesimally small compared to the number of Americans who have joined under the DEFO North American scheme!
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There is only ONE American pilot that joined as a DEFO and passed the upgrade to freighter captain, but he went passenger FO for a while before trying (greater than 3 years with CX).
Many have tried, but none have yet been successful. There has definitely been no American that upgraded from freighter DEFO to captain.
Pxing
Many have tried, but none have yet been successful. There has definitely been no American that upgraded from freighter DEFO to captain.
Pxing
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.... about what I thought..... hey Elroy or any other C&T'r, or even management types out there.... I challenge you: How many Americans have gone from DEFO to freighter captain? EVER? There is a big problem here.... What is it?!!
There seems to be this idea out there to prospective new joiners that they have some wonderful opportunity out there to quick widebody command, but guess again: the odds of an early selection to ATTEMPT a command course are very low (I bet 1 in 20 DEFO's would be conservative). Now how many of those have passed?..... crickets chirping......
There seems to be this idea out there to prospective new joiners that they have some wonderful opportunity out there to quick widebody command, but guess again: the odds of an early selection to ATTEMPT a command course are very low (I bet 1 in 20 DEFO's would be conservative). Now how many of those have passed?..... crickets chirping......
Last edited by hog tied; 2nd Apr 2007 at 21:58.
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There is only ONE American pilot that joined as a DEFO and passed the upgrade to freighter captain, but he went passenger FO for a while before trying (greater than 3 years with CX).
Many have tried, but none have yet been successful. There has definitely been no American that upgraded from freighter DEFO to captain.
Many have tried, but none have yet been successful. There has definitely been no American that upgraded from freighter DEFO to captain.
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17 years is not right, because 10-15% fail the course and with the expansion comes extra training capacity, an extra sim etc. It is 10 yrs right now in fact just under and has been 10 yrs for the last 5 yrs so??????
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There have been a few Canadians...are they better?
Last edited by iLuvPX; 3rd Apr 2007 at 14:18.
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10 years, so what.
Even 17 years; millstream, do you have any idea how long it takes at a major in the US?
If it's quick command you want, go to the LCCs.
I know guys who are F/Os after 7-8 years +, at a REGIONAL!!!
Even 17 years; millstream, do you have any idea how long it takes at a major in the US?
If it's quick command you want, go to the LCCs.
I know guys who are F/Os after 7-8 years +, at a REGIONAL!!!
In American, Delta, North West etc the upgrade time is really long. With the projected hiring, upgrade time in all majors in the US is estimated to come down.
However, if there is another major terrorist attack
in the US, this is all obsolete...we will be doing good to stay out of the furlough list