millstream,
I think you are misusing numbers....and I should know;-)
There are just over 1300 FOs and SOs. With asian contagion followed by SARS etc the recent expansion rate has been slower than what is planned in future. With no expansion we still need almost 60CNs a year just for retirements. We are getting ULR aircraft and we all know that the crewing requirements are far higher than for 330s and regional 777s. So it isn't as simple as just looking at how many aircraft.
Over the next 10years it would be close to 600 retirements(just a guesstimate). So a new joiner would need expansion of 700 commands. Initially, it wouldn't affect the new joiner whether guys take commands on freighters or Pax fleet UNTIL guys junior to him start taking them. Also, and I can't prove this with numbers, anecdotally, freigther pilots are generally older on joining than pax fleet guys so command rate might increase in a few years with additional freighter pilot retirements.
As the airline gets bigger the retirment rate will also increase, albeit with a huge time lag. I know that it is almost 60 a year for the next 6-7 years but I haven't looked beyond.
RA60 would most definitely cost 2-4years on CN time...but then again, I keep reading CX propaganda that tells me that RA60 will speed up commands....not sure who is right on this one;-)
I think CX has planned in excess of 120commands this year. If we are say double the size in a decade, and still exanding at around the same %, we would need double the number of CNs...maybe 240 a year.
My point Millstream is that neither you or I know what Command time will be for a new joiner. I think your outlook is misrepresentative, but thats just my opinion. I think 10years is a good number to use as it is far enough away that it probably wont make a hell of a lot of difference to a new joiner than say 8 years of 12 years. I was told 6-7....but then they didn't know they were going to introduce ASL when I joined...that action cost me 2-3years.
Ask me again in 2017 and I will tell you who was right;-)