Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
You don't actually believe the Biased Broadcasting Corporation do you?
I can't trade B&B shares and my broker says they are suspended. My IG Index account has them down 24p at 64p per share. Which is way below the Rights Issue price. They can't give themselves away. Which is what happens when you repeatedly deny you have funding problems and then announce a Rights Issue, sell 23% of yourself to TexasPacific on god knows what terms and then announce a profits warning and the CEO legs it citing health issues.
BTL will be the spark that explodes the house price market. And its not going to the sort of boom that homeowners like.
WWW
I can't trade B&B shares and my broker says they are suspended. My IG Index account has them down 24p at 64p per share. Which is way below the Rights Issue price. They can't give themselves away. Which is what happens when you repeatedly deny you have funding problems and then announce a Rights Issue, sell 23% of yourself to TexasPacific on god knows what terms and then announce a profits warning and the CEO legs it citing health issues.
BTL will be the spark that explodes the house price market. And its not going to the sort of boom that homeowners like.
WWW
You don't actually believe the Biased Broadcasting Corporation do you?
FT is saying the same, and the new rights issue price is 55p well below the current 65p trading price. If I were you I would talk to your broker, he may be ripping you off!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9b734a5e-3...nclick_check=1
I would agree its not pretty, but its hardly the explosion you talk about. Have you ever thought of working for the Daily Mail?
Hmmm, a rights issue at 55p. This time last year they were above £4. I'd say thats pretty much the same as being a busted company. All because they are up to their eyes in the Buy To Let market and Liar Loans (Self Cert mortgages).
Whatever the exact fate of the company its clear that the House Price Crash is real and it is large. This always results in recession. Recessions always lead to airlines going out of business. This is always terrible news for Wannabes.
If I had a big red flashing light I'd switch it on now.
WWW
Whatever the exact fate of the company its clear that the House Price Crash is real and it is large. This always results in recession. Recessions always lead to airlines going out of business. This is always terrible news for Wannabes.
If I had a big red flashing light I'd switch it on now.
WWW
Interesting.
Land Registry say house prices up by 2.7%
http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/asse...tapril2008.pdf
Land Registry say house prices up by 2.7%
http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/asse...tapril2008.pdf
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I was going to commence training once i had left school however i'm now considering to study Aeronautical Engineering and do my JAR-FCL PPL at the same time and this would allow 4 years for the economy to become stronger once again. It's somthing that's very unpredictable. 
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Today's headlines in the Financial Times:
Airline industry to plunge into loss
Record fuel costs will plunge the global airline industry back into loss this year, the director general of Iata warned at an industry conference - Jun-02
Record fuel costs will plunge the global airline industry back into loss this year, the director general of Iata warned at an industry conference - Jun-02
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Today's Financial Times headlines (world economy section)
Airline industry to plunge into loss
Record fuel costs will plunge the global airline industry back into loss this year, the director general of Iata warned at an industry conference - Jun-02
Record fuel costs will plunge the global airline industry back into loss this year, the director general of Iata warned at an industry conference - Jun-02
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CAA & NATS don't seem to agree with all this gloom and doom. They see commercial traffic growing in the UK at between 50% & 90% by 2025 - as quoted in the main Mode-S consultation document (http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/1698/Main%...20Document.pdf)
(This not a comment about Mode-S in anyway, just an illustration of how the authorities see things shaping up over the next few years).
I am tempted to believe that only certain sectors of the airline industry will be hit, whilst others will actually flourish. Surely, it depends on the business model of the airline, specifically how the predominant economic demographic of their customers is hit by the ecomomic downturn. Or in other words, I can't see Stansted deserted next year somehow. Everytime I fly a lo-cost airline I am surrounded by backpacks and under 30's who have never been better off than at any time in the past...and I can't see that changing soon.
(This not a comment about Mode-S in anyway, just an illustration of how the authorities see things shaping up over the next few years).
I am tempted to believe that only certain sectors of the airline industry will be hit, whilst others will actually flourish. Surely, it depends on the business model of the airline, specifically how the predominant economic demographic of their customers is hit by the ecomomic downturn. Or in other words, I can't see Stansted deserted next year somehow. Everytime I fly a lo-cost airline I am surrounded by backpacks and under 30's who have never been better off than at any time in the past...and I can't see that changing soon.
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You don't actually believe the Biased Broadcasting Corporation do you?
tbh www i believe the beeb more than skynews (right wing nonsense), cnn, fox news (pff don't get me started)
Land Registry say house prices up by 2.7%
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Fuel cost to spark airline bankruptcies: easyJet
spotted this on yahoo
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/afp/2008060...l-a7ad41d.html
.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/afp/2008060...l-a7ad41d.html
BERLIN (AFP) - High fuel prices will trigger a rash of airline bankruptcies, leaving only five major carriers in Europe, the head of easyJet's German arm said in an interview published Monday.
"Several airlines in Europe will go out of business," John Kohlsaat told Berlin's daily Der Tagesspiegel. "Theoretically, 50 are endangered."
Kohlsaat said several carriers had been hit hard by rising fuel costs and were sliding into the red -- a development that in the end would leave only British Airways, Air France/KLM, Lufthansa, Ryanair, "and us".
He said easyJet would weather the storm due to its relatively low operating costs and modern, fuel-efficient fleet.
"A new Airbus consumes 20 percent less fuel than an old Boeing 737," he said.
He said easyJet, currently the fourth-biggest airline in Europe, had no plans to revise its aircraft orders despite the high cost of fuel.
"We have ordered 119 and have options for another 88," he said. "We will double in size in the next five years."
EasyJet said last month that net losses deepened in the first half of its financial year to 43.3 million pounds due to steep fuel costs and the takeover of GB Airways.
Record-breaking oil prices have almost doubled in the past year and have surged by more than 20 dollars since the start of 2008
"Several airlines in Europe will go out of business," John Kohlsaat told Berlin's daily Der Tagesspiegel. "Theoretically, 50 are endangered."
Kohlsaat said several carriers had been hit hard by rising fuel costs and were sliding into the red -- a development that in the end would leave only British Airways, Air France/KLM, Lufthansa, Ryanair, "and us".
He said easyJet would weather the storm due to its relatively low operating costs and modern, fuel-efficient fleet.
"A new Airbus consumes 20 percent less fuel than an old Boeing 737," he said.
He said easyJet, currently the fourth-biggest airline in Europe, had no plans to revise its aircraft orders despite the high cost of fuel.
"We have ordered 119 and have options for another 88," he said. "We will double in size in the next five years."
EasyJet said last month that net losses deepened in the first half of its financial year to 43.3 million pounds due to steep fuel costs and the takeover of GB Airways.
Record-breaking oil prices have almost doubled in the past year and have surged by more than 20 dollars since the start of 2008
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IATA
IATA were warning goverments to take action to protect our industry :-
'Governments need to take responsibility'
Istanbul - The leaders of the world’s airlines unanimously agreed to a resolution calling for governments, airports and labour to take immediate action to help the industry survive the growing financial crisis. The resolution was made at the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) 64th Annual General Meeting and World Air Transport Summit.
“Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. Airlines are an engine for global prosperity and failure amongst them would send shockwaves throughout the world economy,” said IATA Chairman and TAP Portugal CEO Fernando Pinto.
The resolution comes after a recent spike in fuel prices that has led to two-dozen airlines ceasing operations or filing for bankruptcy. “Many more will not survive,” Pinto said.
The declaration made six specific calls to action:
* Governments must eliminate archaic rules that prevent airlines from restructuring across borders.
* In view of existing fees and charges, governments must refrain from imposing multiple and additional punitive taxes and other measures that will only deepen the crisis.
* State service providers must invest to modernise air transport infrastructure urgently, eliminating wasteful fuel consumption and emissions.
* Business partners, in particular monopoly service providers, must become as efficient as airlines are now. If not, regulators must restrain their appetite with tougher regulation.
* Labour unions must refrain from making irresponsible claims and join the effort to secure jobs in aviation and indeed in other industries.
* In the interest of the global economy and the flying public, we urge authorities to enforce the integrity of markets so that the cost of energy reflects its true value.
“The airline industry is sending a clear message to governments, partners and labour. We are in crisis. Governments, labour and our business partners must understand this. And they must act,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA Director General and CEO.
'Governments need to take responsibility'
Istanbul - The leaders of the world’s airlines unanimously agreed to a resolution calling for governments, airports and labour to take immediate action to help the industry survive the growing financial crisis. The resolution was made at the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) 64th Annual General Meeting and World Air Transport Summit.
“Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. Airlines are an engine for global prosperity and failure amongst them would send shockwaves throughout the world economy,” said IATA Chairman and TAP Portugal CEO Fernando Pinto.
The resolution comes after a recent spike in fuel prices that has led to two-dozen airlines ceasing operations or filing for bankruptcy. “Many more will not survive,” Pinto said.
The declaration made six specific calls to action:
* Governments must eliminate archaic rules that prevent airlines from restructuring across borders.
* In view of existing fees and charges, governments must refrain from imposing multiple and additional punitive taxes and other measures that will only deepen the crisis.
* State service providers must invest to modernise air transport infrastructure urgently, eliminating wasteful fuel consumption and emissions.
* Business partners, in particular monopoly service providers, must become as efficient as airlines are now. If not, regulators must restrain their appetite with tougher regulation.
* Labour unions must refrain from making irresponsible claims and join the effort to secure jobs in aviation and indeed in other industries.
* In the interest of the global economy and the flying public, we urge authorities to enforce the integrity of markets so that the cost of energy reflects its true value.
“The airline industry is sending a clear message to governments, partners and labour. We are in crisis. Governments, labour and our business partners must understand this. And they must act,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA Director General and CEO.
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?
John Kohlsaat is talking about schedule airlines.......
Charter airlines have been merging and will continue to do so in the UK and Europe to remain a going concern
Also, IATA is trying it's best to protect our industry (see their web site)
I agree aviation is going through demanding times and will have to re-adjust, which I believe we will do
I have said before and will say again, pax figures are good for Summer 08 for all charter airlines and the schedule ones I have friends working for
If a wanabee pilot wishes to train for his / her dream, then bloody go for it. Just ensure you do not hit mega debt and be prepared to move in order to achieve first flying job, after waiting maybe 1 or 2 years
Charter airlines have been merging and will continue to do so in the UK and Europe to remain a going concern
Also, IATA is trying it's best to protect our industry (see their web site)
I agree aviation is going through demanding times and will have to re-adjust, which I believe we will do
I have said before and will say again, pax figures are good for Summer 08 for all charter airlines and the schedule ones I have friends working for
If a wanabee pilot wishes to train for his / her dream, then bloody go for it. Just ensure you do not hit mega debt and be prepared to move in order to achieve first flying job, after waiting maybe 1 or 2 years
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Interesting stuff from Ryanair this morning, particularly given the doom and gloom at the moment.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7432731.stm
When compared to the massive profits of recent years, breaking even doesn't sound so good; however, relative to the massive losses forecast for the industry in recent times, it doesn't sound so bad - particularly if they're completely unhedged.
The question is, will oil stay at around $130ish now it's levelled off a bit after the meteoric rises of the last few months, or will it resume its upward trend? Time will tell...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7432731.stm
When compared to the massive profits of recent years, breaking even doesn't sound so good; however, relative to the massive losses forecast for the industry in recent times, it doesn't sound so bad - particularly if they're completely unhedged.
The question is, will oil stay at around $130ish now it's levelled off a bit after the meteoric rises of the last few months, or will it resume its upward trend? Time will tell...
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Pppppp
More blah, blah blah....this time from Ryanair and the ugly fittle lucker that is O'leary:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7432731.stm
EDIT - BJ YOU BEAT ME TO IT. BUGGER !!!!
On a lighter note, don't forget that having the will power, tenacity and balls to put yourself through training and get the fATPL comes across as a bloody good thing to any other employer outside of the industry where you might need to look for an interim job before the flying job. These are all transferrable skills and with a little spin you can make your CV look pretty good.
Consider any interim job, outside of a flying, as a "holding job". I spent over 12 months "holding" in the course of my Military flying training (albeit on Naval Air Squadrons but I wasn't progressing my training). It is frustrating but you just got to live with it.
The "holding job" need not be in Maccy Ds or BK if you do your research and prepare for something a little better! The hold may take along time and I guess there is a chance that the flying job may never happen. That I think is the extreme though. Either way if aviation is eating away at you, surely it is better to try and fail then never to have tried.
Just plan well, particularly with regards to finances and be prepared to market yourself well to other potential employers. Start keeping a note of your marketable qualities, a starter for 10 would be "highly motivited, attention to detail and problem solver" (I think most pilots could get away with that).
Remember the 6 P's! Prior Preparation Prevents Piss Poor Performance
Good luck in all your training / job hunting and stay tenacious!!
MFWF
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7432731.stm
EDIT - BJ YOU BEAT ME TO IT. BUGGER !!!!
On a lighter note, don't forget that having the will power, tenacity and balls to put yourself through training and get the fATPL comes across as a bloody good thing to any other employer outside of the industry where you might need to look for an interim job before the flying job. These are all transferrable skills and with a little spin you can make your CV look pretty good.
Consider any interim job, outside of a flying, as a "holding job". I spent over 12 months "holding" in the course of my Military flying training (albeit on Naval Air Squadrons but I wasn't progressing my training). It is frustrating but you just got to live with it.
The "holding job" need not be in Maccy Ds or BK if you do your research and prepare for something a little better! The hold may take along time and I guess there is a chance that the flying job may never happen. That I think is the extreme though. Either way if aviation is eating away at you, surely it is better to try and fail then never to have tried.
Just plan well, particularly with regards to finances and be prepared to market yourself well to other potential employers. Start keeping a note of your marketable qualities, a starter for 10 would be "highly motivited, attention to detail and problem solver" (I think most pilots could get away with that).
Remember the 6 P's! Prior Preparation Prevents Piss Poor Performance
Good luck in all your training / job hunting and stay tenacious!!
MFWF
Last edited by mustflywillfly; 3rd Jun 2008 at 09:40. Reason: BJ was quicker then I !!
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MFWF - Cheers for the helpful comments. I am neck deep in training and the prospect of a job with Subway at the end isnt one I relish...no pun intended!
You're right, if the industry turns further south then it will be the smartest that survive and come out the other side with a shot at a RHS!
You're right, if the industry turns further south then it will be the smartest that survive and come out the other side with a shot at a RHS!
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Ryanair grounds planes to cut costs
"Budget airline Ryanair has said it will ground up to 10% of its fleet this winter to combat soaring airport charges.
The carrier - which unveiled a 17% rise in pre-tax profits to 528 million euro (£419 million) in the year to March 31 - said it would be more profitable to keep 20 aircraft on the ground at Stansted and Dublin than put them in the air."
Mr O'Leary added: "The airlines who will survive this period of higher oil prices and industry downturn are those with new cheaper fuel-efficient aircraft, lower costs, substantial cash balances, low net debt and management who are ready to exploit downturns to drive costs lower and increase efficiency. No airline is better placed in Europe than Ryanair to trade through this downturn."
The carrier - which unveiled a 17% rise in pre-tax profits to 528 million euro (£419 million) in the year to March 31 - said it would be more profitable to keep 20 aircraft on the ground at Stansted and Dublin than put them in the air."
Mr O'Leary added: "The airlines who will survive this period of higher oil prices and industry downturn are those with new cheaper fuel-efficient aircraft, lower costs, substantial cash balances, low net debt and management who are ready to exploit downturns to drive costs lower and increase efficiency. No airline is better placed in Europe than Ryanair to trade through this downturn."
Last edited by john.o.pilot; 3rd Jun 2008 at 21:52.
Driving costs lower means Wannabes paying to work.
WWW
WWW
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Oil dropped 5$ to below 125$ in the past 12 hours, mainly due to a stronger buck.
The people who can't stop gambling are starting to have their first losses.
United is grounding 70 acft, nothing unexpected but very painful for the economy and oil companies... it means over 2 million tons of fuel per day less to sell.
As was always said, increased prices decrease demand.
This particular quote from the IATA guy is the key to the solution:
What is interesting to note is that IATA still predicts a traffic growth of over 3% for this year.
The people who can't stop gambling are starting to have their first losses.
United is grounding 70 acft, nothing unexpected but very painful for the economy and oil companies... it means over 2 million tons of fuel per day less to sell.
As was always said, increased prices decrease demand.
This particular quote from the IATA guy is the key to the solution:
In the interest of the global economy and the flying public, we urge authorities to enforce the integrity of markets so that the cost of energy reflects its true value.
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It's not often these days that I get a chance to check up on what's going on in Wannabes, but I'm at home on Standby at the moment and so here I am. I've had a good read through this thread, chuckled at much of the rubbish spouted and occasionally nodded at some sage advice.
Let me say, right from the start, that you should listen to WWW and heed his advice.
That doesn't mean I necessarily agree with him 100% - those with long memories will know that he and I don't always agree on the world's economy! However, we are both in a position to argue and disagree; our careers may be at risk, but we're not gambling money we haven't yet earned on unquantifiable risks. We did our gambling some years ago (over 30, in my case), and now have to take the rough with the smooth. We're on the rollercoaster, whichever way it goes. You guys (well, most of you) have the choice of whether to get on or not.
Your first choice is whether to begin training or not. If you are borrowing lots of money to fund a fast-track integrated course, then STOP! Right now is not the time to risk your financial future on this industry. If you can fund your training without going into any debt, and can structure it so that you can adjust the time of graduation as fATPL to match the inevitable upturn, then go ahead. If you are somewhere between these two positions, think about how you can change things to be nearer the second rather than the first.
There are no guarantees either way in aviation (or anything else!). It may well be that the downturn is not as serious as WWW postulates; equally, it could be worse. If you don't have to gamble your money on which way it's going to go, why do it? The consequences of getting it wrong and losing all that money are horrible to contemplate; especially when a little prudence now could leave you in a far better position later.
If you can, hang slack for a bit. Get a feel for how things are going to pan out. If oil prices drop considerably (they're about $9 off their peak now, but look for $20 or more) and credit starts to ease, then by all means take up your plans where you left off - but stay cautious. If, as WWW suspects, we are in for a downturn on the scale of 1991/2, your caution will be well rewarded. When WWW's back as an FO and I'm on the dole, unable to get a job at my advanced age, you will be able to exploit your flexibility and cheapness to employers and leap in as things start to improve. I hope it doesn't get that bad, but it might - and the signs aren't exactly good, are they?
Stay solvent and flexible. Good luck - we're all going to need it!
Let me say, right from the start, that you should listen to WWW and heed his advice.
That doesn't mean I necessarily agree with him 100% - those with long memories will know that he and I don't always agree on the world's economy! However, we are both in a position to argue and disagree; our careers may be at risk, but we're not gambling money we haven't yet earned on unquantifiable risks. We did our gambling some years ago (over 30, in my case), and now have to take the rough with the smooth. We're on the rollercoaster, whichever way it goes. You guys (well, most of you) have the choice of whether to get on or not.
Your first choice is whether to begin training or not. If you are borrowing lots of money to fund a fast-track integrated course, then STOP! Right now is not the time to risk your financial future on this industry. If you can fund your training without going into any debt, and can structure it so that you can adjust the time of graduation as fATPL to match the inevitable upturn, then go ahead. If you are somewhere between these two positions, think about how you can change things to be nearer the second rather than the first.
There are no guarantees either way in aviation (or anything else!). It may well be that the downturn is not as serious as WWW postulates; equally, it could be worse. If you don't have to gamble your money on which way it's going to go, why do it? The consequences of getting it wrong and losing all that money are horrible to contemplate; especially when a little prudence now could leave you in a far better position later.
If you can, hang slack for a bit. Get a feel for how things are going to pan out. If oil prices drop considerably (they're about $9 off their peak now, but look for $20 or more) and credit starts to ease, then by all means take up your plans where you left off - but stay cautious. If, as WWW suspects, we are in for a downturn on the scale of 1991/2, your caution will be well rewarded. When WWW's back as an FO and I'm on the dole, unable to get a job at my advanced age, you will be able to exploit your flexibility and cheapness to employers and leap in as things start to improve. I hope it doesn't get that bad, but it might - and the signs aren't exactly good, are they?
Stay solvent and flexible. Good luck - we're all going to need it!