BYE BYE VIRGIN BLUE! HELLO ANSETT
Moderate, Modest & Mild.
Agreed Captain Overunder, it's no secret that Virgin Blue and QANTAS are waiting for Ansett Mk3 to enter the ring, and that they have some new "tactics" designed to keep pax AWAY from Ansett.
It would seem that QANTAS (because of its size) is the one that will be able to afford to 'bleed' the most.
Virgin Blue has been able to build up a considerable "war chest", due to the the significant surge in passenger revenue since Sept. 14th, and so it remains to be seen how long the FLEW consortium are willing to see an OUTFLOW of money.
I subscribe to my variation of Gaunty's theory, which will see Ansett re-enter under FLEW, a fairly rapid sell-off of remaining Ansett properties (partly to help subsidise the fight against QF and VB) with the proceeds of the sales channeled to other FLEW companies, and the carcass of Ansett - the airline - left to fend for itself. The time frame I put on the outcome for the survival, or FINAL demise, of Ansett is within 12 months.
Whereas Virgin Blue has been going through a continued growth and re-investment, I believe that FLEW's plans for AN Mk3 are exactly 180 degrees opposed. Time alone will tell!
It would seem that QANTAS (because of its size) is the one that will be able to afford to 'bleed' the most.
Virgin Blue has been able to build up a considerable "war chest", due to the the significant surge in passenger revenue since Sept. 14th, and so it remains to be seen how long the FLEW consortium are willing to see an OUTFLOW of money.
I subscribe to my variation of Gaunty's theory, which will see Ansett re-enter under FLEW, a fairly rapid sell-off of remaining Ansett properties (partly to help subsidise the fight against QF and VB) with the proceeds of the sales channeled to other FLEW companies, and the carcass of Ansett - the airline - left to fend for itself. The time frame I put on the outcome for the survival, or FINAL demise, of Ansett is within 12 months.
Whereas Virgin Blue has been going through a continued growth and re-investment, I believe that FLEW's plans for AN Mk3 are exactly 180 degrees opposed. Time alone will tell!
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Interesting how after nearly 2 years the doubting Thomases (who all gave Virgin Blue no hope of survival beyond 6 months)still cling to the belief that the QF/AN duopoly is the only way forward. Meanwhile AN has collapsed and VB continues to grow. AN may have a chance of re-emerging as a 3rd airline if they do it right but to suggest that VB is a write off is wishfull thinking to say the least. "Bye Bye Virgin Blue" ? Yep ! why not give them a wave from the terminal as they set off with another full load of content passengers who have not paid a fortune to travel.
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Guys this whole thing has to be a windup .KAPTIN you are kidding .Combined worth of the backers is IN EXCESS OF 8 Bil US .!!! 12 months your kidding.
Dont you think AN2 dont know of the reception they are going to get .PLEASE !!!. I will take your bet ,,easy money. F/L will have a game plan and they would have to be odds on with the new backers and Kelty running the unions... They have already said they will initially take a big loss , so what would that tell you.
Mate gloves are off alright .Why do you think Qantas is in such a big panic over wages and conditions.
I hope all three carriers are here next year.
Cheers all ,
Merry Xmas <img src="wink.gif" border="0">
Dont you think AN2 dont know of the reception they are going to get .PLEASE !!!. I will take your bet ,,easy money. F/L will have a game plan and they would have to be odds on with the new backers and Kelty running the unions... They have already said they will initially take a big loss , so what would that tell you.
Mate gloves are off alright .Why do you think Qantas is in such a big panic over wages and conditions.
I hope all three carriers are here next year.
Cheers all ,
Merry Xmas <img src="wink.gif" border="0">
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bgt
I hope for the AN staff sakes that you are right, but you don't accumulate $8billion in the aviation business being a pussy cat philanthropist.
My comments about driving them (the staff) on to the guns in my Ansett Air Ansett - Ansett Property thread was not meant in any anti Ansett staff manner, it was meant as exactly the opposite.
The first part of the game is not over until
the creditors meeting, it is there that the staff have the means of choosing their future employer, Virgin Lang/FLEW or neither and the opportunity to decide about the bird in the hand v two in the bush smoke and mirrors routine being offered.
They should ask very hard questions and be very careful, because they are being driven on to the guns.
If AN Mk whatever as a concept is really such a viable option for a purchaser then why does it need all this flim flam "reconstruction". Liquidate, sell the terminals and other assets for their real value, sell Ansett name/goodwill for whatever it is worth, pay out creditors and every body gets a FAIR deal. And the new owners can get on with it unencumbered. Ockhams Razor always works.
Nobody seriously believes that the Anset of now is the Ansett of its glorious past.
And when you see buzzards the like of the bunker bros from the US circling then you just know the fix is in and that their will be only 4 winners.
I hope for the AN staff sakes that you are right, but you don't accumulate $8billion in the aviation business being a pussy cat philanthropist.
My comments about driving them (the staff) on to the guns in my Ansett Air Ansett - Ansett Property thread was not meant in any anti Ansett staff manner, it was meant as exactly the opposite.
The first part of the game is not over until
the creditors meeting, it is there that the staff have the means of choosing their future employer, Virgin Lang/FLEW or neither and the opportunity to decide about the bird in the hand v two in the bush smoke and mirrors routine being offered.
They should ask very hard questions and be very careful, because they are being driven on to the guns.
If AN Mk whatever as a concept is really such a viable option for a purchaser then why does it need all this flim flam "reconstruction". Liquidate, sell the terminals and other assets for their real value, sell Ansett name/goodwill for whatever it is worth, pay out creditors and every body gets a FAIR deal. And the new owners can get on with it unencumbered. Ockhams Razor always works.
Nobody seriously believes that the Anset of now is the Ansett of its glorious past.
And when you see buzzards the like of the bunker bros from the US circling then you just know the fix is in and that their will be only 4 winners.
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Gaunty, "If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck; I think that it is a duck." Don't try to smooth over your obvious anti-Ansett sentiments with warm platitudes. I believe we can see from wince you come. Let me hit you with some cold hard facts that so many of you can't seem to get into your obvious financial wizard brains. $800MM net BOOK VALUE assets, $750MM employee entitlement liabilities. Unless you have been practicing your loaves and fishes act; don't think there is much for the rest of the creditors. Without the Ansett AOC, any new airline emerging from the ashes would have years to get back up running. The wonderful real estate that you think will be sold off will not have a lot of value without an operating airline using the terminals. Sorta' like the Hindmarsh Island resort without the bridge.
If you think that the money received from the real estate is the game, I would say that you and your Financial Review guru have misunderstood the real payoff badly. If one half of Virgin Blue is worth $300MM without assets, what do you think a float of Ansett in 3 years time will be worth with those assets still in place. THAT my friend is the GAME.
I, for one, do not want you to give me a fish for tonight's dinner. Teach me to fish so that I can feed my family in the future.
If you think that the money received from the real estate is the game, I would say that you and your Financial Review guru have misunderstood the real payoff badly. If one half of Virgin Blue is worth $300MM without assets, what do you think a float of Ansett in 3 years time will be worth with those assets still in place. THAT my friend is the GAME.
I, for one, do not want you to give me a fish for tonight's dinner. Teach me to fish so that I can feed my family in the future.
Moderate, Modest & Mild.
bgt, that FLEW have said (your quote): [quote]"..They have already said they will initially take a big loss, so what would that tell you."<hr></blockquote>
...that tells me that they will offset their "big losses" by selling Ansett's existing capital - NOT with their OWN money!
Do you seriously believe - for even one MINUTE - (that) FLEW & Co are going to allow lose one dollar of their OWN money on this venture?
Ansett's future will depend ENTIRELY upon the staff giving far more than the EBA outlines, and of course the acceptance and support of the travelling public.
Branson has previously said that he would open a float to the public, some time next year, in which case the title of this thread may well be correct:
BUY BUY VIRGIN BLUE! HELL - OH, ANSETT
...that tells me that they will offset their "big losses" by selling Ansett's existing capital - NOT with their OWN money!
Do you seriously believe - for even one MINUTE - (that) FLEW & Co are going to allow lose one dollar of their OWN money on this venture?
Ansett's future will depend ENTIRELY upon the staff giving far more than the EBA outlines, and of course the acceptance and support of the travelling public.
Branson has previously said that he would open a float to the public, some time next year, in which case the title of this thread may well be correct:
BUY BUY VIRGIN BLUE! HELL - OH, ANSETT
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K/M . Sorry mate dont agree at all . I am not clouded by any sentiment here. Why would they bother with all this airline cr*p to take a loss .The only question mark was how did these guys expect to manage an unknown buisness.They dont . They import the brains.
No doubt work conditions will change ,hey thats life. The world changed in September.
Everyone is entitled to a point of view .I formed mine when an associate in Singapore was briefed by his company that after a long period of studying Ansetts business strategy, they are now convinced that Ansett will become a major Power again amongst the airlines in the Pacific rim ,in the not to distant future.ie Not just domestically.
Hey ,until it happens its a rumour.
For my money this guy would know.Its his business.
He believes there is serious money ready to be ploughed into Ansett .... because of the new work rules.
Then I am sure yours / lames and everyone elses sources will beg to differ.
ANYHOW,TIME WILL TELL
I say again I hope they are all here next year.
MERRY XMAS ALL .
ESPECIALLY THE ANSETT STAFF
No doubt work conditions will change ,hey thats life. The world changed in September.
Everyone is entitled to a point of view .I formed mine when an associate in Singapore was briefed by his company that after a long period of studying Ansetts business strategy, they are now convinced that Ansett will become a major Power again amongst the airlines in the Pacific rim ,in the not to distant future.ie Not just domestically.
Hey ,until it happens its a rumour.
For my money this guy would know.Its his business.
He believes there is serious money ready to be ploughed into Ansett .... because of the new work rules.
Then I am sure yours / lames and everyone elses sources will beg to differ.
ANYHOW,TIME WILL TELL
I say again I hope they are all here next year.
MERRY XMAS ALL .
ESPECIALLY THE ANSETT STAFF
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Okie
Mate it appears that we are in heated agreement, if you read your post viz; assets v staff entitlements, ie, one about equals the other.
The way it is running at the moment the more staff they can "transfer" to the new Ansett, ie the less they have to pay out, the more "assets" they can flick off elsewhere for themselves and leave the "transferred" AN staff with maybe a mouth full of feathers down the track if it doesn't quite work.
Maybe I'm wrong and getting too old and cynical but I've seen it all before, neither have I worked for or have any financial interest in any of them. I'm getting more bolshy as I get older and I just get very cross when I see the big end of town giving it to the little people. And I would be happy to man the ramparts with you if you thought it would do any good.
I recently made an allusion in one of these threads, to a recent episode of "The Blue Planet" where some smaller predators rounded up and spooked a big school of herring, the noise of their panic attracting a bunch of Killer Whales who proceeded to finish them off to the nearly very last one. I don't need to draw picture of who was playing who in this real life drama of real life.
The difference is that in this instance, the AN staff have a choice if they are given the full and complete information.
The very poignant ending of that herring school massacre, was the LAST herring in the school lying on the surface broken and bleeding giving the very occasional twitch of its tail.
I can't get that scene out of my mind every time I see whats happening with AN.
I've had the unenviable task before, of having to metaphorically shoot the wounded out of these kind of scenarios and it is something I carry with me always. <img src="frown.gif" border="0">
I guess we'll see eh
Mate it appears that we are in heated agreement, if you read your post viz; assets v staff entitlements, ie, one about equals the other.
The way it is running at the moment the more staff they can "transfer" to the new Ansett, ie the less they have to pay out, the more "assets" they can flick off elsewhere for themselves and leave the "transferred" AN staff with maybe a mouth full of feathers down the track if it doesn't quite work.
Maybe I'm wrong and getting too old and cynical but I've seen it all before, neither have I worked for or have any financial interest in any of them. I'm getting more bolshy as I get older and I just get very cross when I see the big end of town giving it to the little people. And I would be happy to man the ramparts with you if you thought it would do any good.
I recently made an allusion in one of these threads, to a recent episode of "The Blue Planet" where some smaller predators rounded up and spooked a big school of herring, the noise of their panic attracting a bunch of Killer Whales who proceeded to finish them off to the nearly very last one. I don't need to draw picture of who was playing who in this real life drama of real life.
The difference is that in this instance, the AN staff have a choice if they are given the full and complete information.
The very poignant ending of that herring school massacre, was the LAST herring in the school lying on the surface broken and bleeding giving the very occasional twitch of its tail.
I can't get that scene out of my mind every time I see whats happening with AN.
I've had the unenviable task before, of having to metaphorically shoot the wounded out of these kind of scenarios and it is something I carry with me always. <img src="frown.gif" border="0">
I guess we'll see eh
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I think the smart money will be on the new AN. This carrier will be nothing more than a startup business carrier run by people with airline experience and financed by people with lots of capital, using a known brand for marketing. AN's access to terminals and slots around the network will seriously hamper VB's efforts to expand. VB will be losing what small profit it makes to its larger sibling in the old country. SQ are still in the AN picture but will remain silent until our incompetent government exhausts all its means to trip AN up. The feds are keen to see VB become the victor in order to force costs to be reduced at QF - something the leaked document touched on during the week.
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Doc - are you for real or are you just kidding around ?
[quote] SQ are still in the AN picture but will remain silent until our incompetent government exhausts all its means to trip AN up. <hr></blockquote>
SQ were never and will never be interested in AN and could you please show evidence where SQ is still in the picture and the Government has tried to "trip" AN up.
Keep the faith :]
[quote] SQ are still in the AN picture but will remain silent until our incompetent government exhausts all its means to trip AN up. <hr></blockquote>
SQ were never and will never be interested in AN and could you please show evidence where SQ is still in the picture and the Government has tried to "trip" AN up.
Keep the faith :]
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Whiskery,
No, not kidding at all. My contacts at AN assure me that the SQ people have not yet left the building (actually, Silkair are more involved).
The strategic need for SQ to have access to a domestic network in Oz has not changed. This is also true for the Star Alliance in general.
The Howard Government has been effectively lobbied by QF - Jackson and Dixon. These two corporate hyenas convinced the government that AN was "returning to profitability" and projected a group profit (that is SQ,NZ,AN) of some 700 million dollars. This of course was contradictory to the evidence provided by Jim Farmer from NZ stating that AN was in dire straits and would need a resolution on its ownership issue "immediately". This was backed up by a similar statement by SQ. We now know which information was factual.
The tactics employed by QF were probably not inappropriate but the response from Howard was. Unless of course there was a wider agenda of ensuring the ongoing certainty of the QF business and the viability of the new entrant, Virgin.
Had Howard, Anderson and Fels not acted to prevent SQ from buying into the group, the results would be vastly different.
[ 26 December 2001: Message edited by: Doctor Hibbert ]</p>
No, not kidding at all. My contacts at AN assure me that the SQ people have not yet left the building (actually, Silkair are more involved).
The strategic need for SQ to have access to a domestic network in Oz has not changed. This is also true for the Star Alliance in general.
The Howard Government has been effectively lobbied by QF - Jackson and Dixon. These two corporate hyenas convinced the government that AN was "returning to profitability" and projected a group profit (that is SQ,NZ,AN) of some 700 million dollars. This of course was contradictory to the evidence provided by Jim Farmer from NZ stating that AN was in dire straits and would need a resolution on its ownership issue "immediately". This was backed up by a similar statement by SQ. We now know which information was factual.
The tactics employed by QF were probably not inappropriate but the response from Howard was. Unless of course there was a wider agenda of ensuring the ongoing certainty of the QF business and the viability of the new entrant, Virgin.
Had Howard, Anderson and Fels not acted to prevent SQ from buying into the group, the results would be vastly different.
[ 26 December 2001: Message edited by: Doctor Hibbert ]</p>
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Thu, Dec 27 2001 9:36 AM AEDT
Targeted: Virgin sets sights on Ansett II
Virgin offers $5 fares
Virgin Blue has begun offering $5 flights from Melbourne to five major cities, in an aggressive attempt to stave off potential competition from a revamped Ansett.
The 10,000 midweek seats are only available on the Internet until Monday, for travel between January 9 and March 27.
The one-way fares are for flights to Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Launceston and Canberra.
Vigin Blue spokesman David Huttner says the fares are to thank customers for their support, particularly in Victoria, which has become Virgin's second largest operational base.
However, he says it is also very much about ensuring the airline's position in the market.
"Suggestions recently in the press by Mr Fox that Ansett's main goal is simply to put Virgin Blue out of business, well, you know, we wish them the best of luck in that endeavour," he said.
"Everybody else has failed so far but if that's the only goal in business, they claim to be in the spirit of competition then well, good on them."
[ 26 December 2001: Message edited by: Interceptor ]</p>
Targeted: Virgin sets sights on Ansett II
Virgin offers $5 fares
Virgin Blue has begun offering $5 flights from Melbourne to five major cities, in an aggressive attempt to stave off potential competition from a revamped Ansett.
The 10,000 midweek seats are only available on the Internet until Monday, for travel between January 9 and March 27.
The one-way fares are for flights to Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Launceston and Canberra.
Vigin Blue spokesman David Huttner says the fares are to thank customers for their support, particularly in Victoria, which has become Virgin's second largest operational base.
However, he says it is also very much about ensuring the airline's position in the market.
"Suggestions recently in the press by Mr Fox that Ansett's main goal is simply to put Virgin Blue out of business, well, you know, we wish them the best of luck in that endeavour," he said.
"Everybody else has failed so far but if that's the only goal in business, they claim to be in the spirit of competition then well, good on them."
[ 26 December 2001: Message edited by: Interceptor ]</p>
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Whiskery for your info SQ have assisted with the new business plan and the timetable amongst other things. Check you facts before you make another wrong announcement.
VB cannot survive the rebirth of AN and that's why Godfrey went cap in hand to the Fed Gov for more taxpayers money (they've been given over $67 million so far. How much would you get if you launched an airline in this country???)
He was quite rightly told he'd been given more than he should have and left empty handed.
Godfrey also approached the 2 Americans who are now on board at AN and they nocked him back. Why? Because VB is a tin pot airline nothing more.
The 2 American gentlemen will be taking 40% of the new AN initially. One of these men has sold over $5 billion worth of Airbuses around the world so fleet expansion wont be a problem in the future.
VB wont survive because they have no assets against which to borrow. They dont have the infrastructure of a proper airline. They operate out of the freight shed. And they cant get anyone to invest even when they get a huge leg up from the Australian tax payers and get unbelievably lucky when AN go down in Sept.
VB cannot survive the rebirth of AN and that's why Godfrey went cap in hand to the Fed Gov for more taxpayers money (they've been given over $67 million so far. How much would you get if you launched an airline in this country???)
He was quite rightly told he'd been given more than he should have and left empty handed.
Godfrey also approached the 2 Americans who are now on board at AN and they nocked him back. Why? Because VB is a tin pot airline nothing more.
The 2 American gentlemen will be taking 40% of the new AN initially. One of these men has sold over $5 billion worth of Airbuses around the world so fleet expansion wont be a problem in the future.
VB wont survive because they have no assets against which to borrow. They dont have the infrastructure of a proper airline. They operate out of the freight shed. And they cant get anyone to invest even when they get a huge leg up from the Australian tax payers and get unbelievably lucky when AN go down in Sept.