AN MkII Load Factors & Financial Results
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AN MkII Load Factors & Financial Results
Administrator Mark Mentha revealed on Business Sunday (9 Network) this morning that AN MkII is losing up to $ 1m per week on flying operations, and has load factor overall of 50 % when he needs 66 % to break even.
No wonder AN are struggling when QF web fare Mel/Per is $ 220, Virgin Blue $ 229 and AN asking $ 429 just before Christmas.
Seems the Truckie and the Ragtrader are taking a hell of a gamble , and starting way behind the eight ball. Commentators are saying everywhere this week that only one airline out of Ansett MkIII and Virgin Blue will survive . Tragic part is that people get hurt every time and lives ruined; now twice with Compass,once with Impulse (in a sort of way), once with Ansett (the original) and who will be the next casualty in 2002 ?
Two winners out of whatever happens the public (fare wise) and QF .
No wonder AN are struggling when QF web fare Mel/Per is $ 220, Virgin Blue $ 229 and AN asking $ 429 just before Christmas.
Seems the Truckie and the Ragtrader are taking a hell of a gamble , and starting way behind the eight ball. Commentators are saying everywhere this week that only one airline out of Ansett MkIII and Virgin Blue will survive . Tragic part is that people get hurt every time and lives ruined; now twice with Compass,once with Impulse (in a sort of way), once with Ansett (the original) and who will be the next casualty in 2002 ?
Two winners out of whatever happens the public (fare wise) and QF .
Moderate, Modest & Mild.
With an admission such as that, the few people who do fly Ansett are unlikely to make any advance bookings for fear of losing their dough.
It's a tough call, but PERHAPS Ansett staff might like to offer their services FOC for (say) 2 or 3 days to eliminate the current $1million/month...ooops, per WEEK... loss, in the interests of seeing what's left of the company survive?
Edited to correct the $1 million loss to reflect WEEKLY, not MONTHLY.
[ 02 December 2001: Message edited by: Kaptin M ]
It's a tough call, but PERHAPS Ansett staff might like to offer their services FOC for (say) 2 or 3 days to eliminate the current $1million/month...ooops, per WEEK... loss, in the interests of seeing what's left of the company survive?
Edited to correct the $1 million loss to reflect WEEKLY, not MONTHLY.
[ 02 December 2001: Message edited by: Kaptin M ]
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From what I understand, it is better to lose $1 million per day and have the airline operating because apparently if it wasn't operating they would be losing more. Don't ask me why but that's what one of the financial commentators has stated.
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They could fill the flights tommorrow if they wanted to. It's not the Administrators job to do that, it's the new owners. The only sectors that are quiet are ML to SY, and thats only because QF do half hourly services with conservativley 30% of their pax ex- Ansett. Virgin fly the route now which doesn't help load factors. The only way to get on an Ansett flight is via the internet or walk up to the counter. Perth flights are full and they are about to increase services. Every single passenger on Ansett has made the conscious decision to fly Ansett, knowing full well that there is no catering or in- flight entertainment, many of these people are wearing suits. As soon as the new owners fire up travel agents, corporate accounts, Star Alliance on-carriage etc. things will be very busy indeed.
On the question of losing money, the two Marks have briefed flight ops. It all revolves around the Sydney terminal. They say that sitting unused it's worth $100 million, but with flights in and out, full, half-full or empty the terminal is worth $450 million. Losing between $500 thousand and $1 million a week of creditors money is nothing compared to the loss of value in an un-used terminal. These guys are a lot smarter than we are, if they weren't they'd be the losers trolling the internet to copy newspaper reports or bitching about lost causes from years ago or even picking on poor unfortunates whose only crime was being born in New Zealand!
On the question of losing money, the two Marks have briefed flight ops. It all revolves around the Sydney terminal. They say that sitting unused it's worth $100 million, but with flights in and out, full, half-full or empty the terminal is worth $450 million. Losing between $500 thousand and $1 million a week of creditors money is nothing compared to the loss of value in an un-used terminal. These guys are a lot smarter than we are, if they weren't they'd be the losers trolling the internet to copy newspaper reports or bitching about lost causes from years ago or even picking on poor unfortunates whose only crime was being born in New Zealand!
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BB, throw on top of that the $150MM in staff entitlements Fox/Lew are assuming that effectively go to the creditors. The anti-Ansett moronic embeciles probably couldn't give you the correct change from a dollar.
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I am sure most of you will scoff at what I am about to post but ever since I heard about the partnership between the Shakeperean two, Shylock and McBeth, to purchase Ansett I have been bemused, to say the least. Not that I wish Ansett ill will. I hope they buy it and make it the best airline in the world but why would you, in their position? Both are very astute businessmen in their own right. They both have huge amounts of money. Between them they could probably buy Tasmania if they wanted to but nothing is truer than the old saying. "How do you make a small fortune in Aviation? Start with a big fortune". Those two men must know this. They are not stupid. Unless their buying Ansett is a flight of fancy by two would be pilots going through male menopause on their way to a mid life crisis, there is much more to this deal that has been disclosed. And I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't political in origin and things might not turn out how we all hope it will. Shylock will get his pound of flesh and McBeth? We will have to wait and see.
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This is why I cannot understand why the ex employees seem happy about what the administrators are doing...... 
You say it is GOOD to lose $1m a week for the next 2 months, ie $8m in funds that would be your entitlements probably, to make the terminal in Sydney worth (I think you said) $450m, instead of $100m to sell now with Ansett stopped.
That $100m now would go to you, not to mention NOT losing the other $8m..
and a lot of you would have full time jobs with Virgin.
IF the company continue on, with most of you working only part time or job sharing, even IF the terminal suddenly is worth $450m, so what, they aren't going to sell it, or are they....
What use is it having the terminal worth $450m for Fox/Lew, if the ex employees have blown another $8m of the money in the kitty.......
I can see why Fox/Lew are happy, and the administrators are being paid very well, but I cannot see what is good about it for the ex employees?
You say it is GOOD to lose $1m a week for the next 2 months, ie $8m in funds that would be your entitlements probably, to make the terminal in Sydney worth (I think you said) $450m, instead of $100m to sell now with Ansett stopped.
That $100m now would go to you, not to mention NOT losing the other $8m..
and a lot of you would have full time jobs with Virgin. IF the company continue on, with most of you working only part time or job sharing, even IF the terminal suddenly is worth $450m, so what, they aren't going to sell it, or are they....
What use is it having the terminal worth $450m for Fox/Lew, if the ex employees have blown another $8m of the money in the kitty.......
I can see why Fox/Lew are happy, and the administrators are being paid very well, but I cannot see what is good about it for the ex employees?
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As I have pointed out many times I, like a lot of other PPRuNers, worry about what is going to happen to you.
However the majority of you just will not even listen to alternative ideas, you just follow blindly what you have been told by, I assume, the administrators and the ACTU and Unions.
I give up, while I still wish you all the best, I will waste no more of my time trying to help you, good luck with Fox/Lew. Sadly though IF it goes ahead at all, it will be short lived.....
ENDTRANS.
However the majority of you just will not even listen to alternative ideas, you just follow blindly what you have been told by, I assume, the administrators and the ACTU and Unions.
I give up, while I still wish you all the best, I will waste no more of my time trying to help you, good luck with Fox/Lew. Sadly though IF it goes ahead at all, it will be short lived.....
ENDTRANS.
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If Ansett MKII haven't got every seat occupied by a fare paying passenger for the 12 days prior to and including Boxing Day, I personally can't see how any new start up buyer will survive. Apart from which the fares look completely unsustainable, but it is a matter of how you do the accounting and deferred maintenance costs etc at the time settlement is made. We also don't know what if any special deals have been done with the Airbus lessors. Prices this low haven't allowed other start up carriers to enter the market and survive. 
[ 02 December 2001: Message edited by: rpt2 ]
[ 02 December 2001: Message edited by: rpt2 ]
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If AN-2 is still only operating 12 A-320s
at a million a week loss, this works out
at $83,333 per aircraft, even with travel
agents back in the loop, it looks like a
hell of a hill to climb, as I undestand it
the maitanence facilitys are not in the
F/L deal, A: Where is the maitanence to
be carried out? B: Where will the catering
come from?
Wirraway
[ 02 December 2001: Message edited by: Wirraway ]
at a million a week loss, this works out
at $83,333 per aircraft, even with travel
agents back in the loop, it looks like a
hell of a hill to climb, as I undestand it
the maitanence facilitys are not in the
F/L deal, A: Where is the maitanence to
be carried out? B: Where will the catering
come from?
Wirraway
[ 02 December 2001: Message edited by: Wirraway ]
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Now even if the AN terminals are worth more with planes flying than not, these facts remain :
1. QF will only use AN gates as a last resort, when they have plenty of space in both Mel & Syd of their own. QF will work their gates harder (sweat the assets) or put on bigger a/c before paying a competitor.
2. AN MkIII will only require small proportion of previous gate requirements a/c reduced size of the proposed new operation.
3. DJ will only use AN gates where they have to and where they can get a reasonable price relative to their budget operation.
So it may be nice for Fox and Lew to own the terminals but in reality utilizing all the available gates will be hard given on a worst case scenario QF ends up with 70 % market share, and other obvious client users are limited.
Finally, things must be really bad as Ansett are giving one seat free for each paid seat
paid in a promo to begin with Murdoch Press this week. If you can't get 2/3 load factors
at this time of the year with the existing artificially low level of fares then Ansett MkIII would appear to be really up against it.
1. QF will only use AN gates as a last resort, when they have plenty of space in both Mel & Syd of their own. QF will work their gates harder (sweat the assets) or put on bigger a/c before paying a competitor.
2. AN MkIII will only require small proportion of previous gate requirements a/c reduced size of the proposed new operation.
3. DJ will only use AN gates where they have to and where they can get a reasonable price relative to their budget operation.
So it may be nice for Fox and Lew to own the terminals but in reality utilizing all the available gates will be hard given on a worst case scenario QF ends up with 70 % market share, and other obvious client users are limited.
Finally, things must be really bad as Ansett are giving one seat free for each paid seat
paid in a promo to begin with Murdoch Press this week. If you can't get 2/3 load factors
at this time of the year with the existing artificially low level of fares then Ansett MkIII would appear to be really up against it.
Moderate, Modest & Mild.
The "potential worth" of Ansett's terminals is precisely that...potential...until it is realised, ie. SOLD!
Are Lindsay/Fox are buying into a real estate venture (rather than an airline) because they have been told by by Markx2 that it is PRIME property?
What does Mr Fox intend to do with his Avalon and Essendon estates?
Is he considering selling Tulla to Virgin Blue, and operating Ansett II from elsewhere?
Perhaps Ansett II is seen as "You are passing another LinFox" air cargo operation - after all, the current losses in the pax sector must be a strong deterrant for two relatively newcomers who want to turn a small fortune!
Expect to see Tullamarine sold to Virgin Blue, and Foxsett operating out of Tulla with freight!
Are Lindsay/Fox are buying into a real estate venture (rather than an airline) because they have been told by by Markx2 that it is PRIME property?
What does Mr Fox intend to do with his Avalon and Essendon estates?
Is he considering selling Tulla to Virgin Blue, and operating Ansett II from elsewhere?
Perhaps Ansett II is seen as "You are passing another LinFox" air cargo operation - after all, the current losses in the pax sector must be a strong deterrant for two relatively newcomers who want to turn a small fortune!
Expect to see Tullamarine sold to Virgin Blue, and Foxsett operating out of Tulla with freight!
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Lame,
What alternative ideas. The people at AN probably just want the best chance of returning to work they can get. Why are you and others so keen to deny them that ability. Do you have an axe to grind. Do you think the staff at AN have a say.
Why do you spend so much time on pprune.
To quote a moderately famous singer - why are people so unkind.
What alternative ideas. The people at AN probably just want the best chance of returning to work they can get. Why are you and others so keen to deny them that ability. Do you have an axe to grind. Do you think the staff at AN have a say.
Why do you spend so much time on pprune.
To quote a moderately famous singer - why are people so unkind.
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I think youll find the plan is for all the Star Alliance operators to pull up to the gates at the existing terminals in Sydney and Melbourne. Seamless connections and no spare gates for QF or DJ, unless they want to use some of the international gates.
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oicur12,
You obviously didn't understand the meaning of ENDTRANS...
That post was the END of any TRANSMISSIONS on the subject from me.......
I have been trying to help ex employees, but have now given up because of all the negativity from you people.
Best regards,
"lame"
You obviously didn't understand the meaning of ENDTRANS...
That post was the END of any TRANSMISSIONS on the subject from me.......
I have been trying to help ex employees, but have now given up because of all the negativity from you people.
Best regards,
"lame"
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Thanks for all of the concern about Ansett employees. I feel that the concern may be slewed about 50% of us still being employed 12 months from now. If that happens then a few of the people who have been gloating and having parties in Brisbane should start feeling a bit nervous.
The load factor up until Jan 31 is not important. You can’t expect full loads with no advertising and travel agents.
The promo of buy one and get one free is to introduce people to the new Ansett. I seem to remember some $33 fairs not to long ago from the new starts.
I feel Ansett will be in a better position than Virgin in 6 – 9 months…only time will tell.
Let the games begin!
The load factor up until Jan 31 is not important. You can’t expect full loads with no advertising and travel agents.
The promo of buy one and get one free is to introduce people to the new Ansett. I seem to remember some $33 fairs not to long ago from the new starts.
I feel Ansett will be in a better position than Virgin in 6 – 9 months…only time will tell.
Let the games begin!
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Yes I've heard about the proposal to create Star Alliance terminals with AN domestic and int'l star carriers.
Initially, hopes are for a YSSY terminal with a possible third finger built around the current catering areas (??) to allow space for the 747s. Currently I doubt there is the gate space for the morning Star 747-fest (UAx2, SQx2, NZx1, TGx1) not mentioning other widebodies from NZ, AC, NG etc...
Initially, hopes are for a YSSY terminal with a possible third finger built around the current catering areas (??) to allow space for the 747s. Currently I doubt there is the gate space for the morning Star 747-fest (UAx2, SQx2, NZx1, TGx1) not mentioning other widebodies from NZ, AC, NG etc...
Evertonian
Not sure if I posted this elsewhere, but anyway...
It will be extremely difficult to operate INTL services from any domestic terminal as HMC are none too keen on such ideas. The AN terminal at Tulla was supposed to be readily converted to an INTL gateway for the proposed AN to NZ flights, but when they heard what HMC would charge them for sending over staff, they shelved it!
It will be extremely difficult to operate INTL services from any domestic terminal as HMC are none too keen on such ideas. The AN terminal at Tulla was supposed to be readily converted to an INTL gateway for the proposed AN to NZ flights, but when they heard what HMC would charge them for sending over staff, they shelved it!