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Doom and Gloom at Air Partner

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Doom and Gloom at Air Partner

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Old 28th Dec 2008, 15:44
  #21 (permalink)  
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The only thing that Air Partner has is cash; how much more is the market cap of the business than the value of the cash it currently holds?

The commercial side of the business has been terribly wounded in recent months. Losing the only real commercial aircraft star performer they had, after all the other key people had left, gives the impression of a crew abandoning ship.

Truth is AIP really isn't that good, and is beginning to lose those juicy government contracts, either because of extraordinary margins it charges or providing aircraft that are unfit for purpose.

A recent example involved the Irish Defense Forces:

THE DEFENCE Forces paid €2.5 million to lease two helicopters in Chad that have effectively been grounded since it emerged they were not licensed to carry troops.
The cost of leasing the two Russian helicopters and Ukrainian crew is contained in a report on the embarrassing mix-up which will be handed to Minister for Defence Willie O'Dea.
An investigation into the matter was launched in September by Defence Forces Chief of Staff Lieut Gen Dermot Earley with Mr O'Dea requesting the full report.
The investigation examined how senior military personnel signed off on a 10-month contract valued at €2.5 million without realising the aircraft they were hiring could not be used for their primary purpose of carrying Irish troops around Chad.
The helicopters can still be used to ferry equipment and could be used to evacuate personnel in an emergency, a spokesman said.
The Mi-8T choppers were leased from Air Partner Commercial Jets, a UK company, and became operational in July. Dutch personnel serving alongside the Irish in Chad raised concerns that the helicopters were flying without proper certification.

With that level of service, governments will look elsewhere, AIP will continue to lose customers and profitability.
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Old 28th Dec 2008, 16:52
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beginning to lose those juicy government contracts, either because of extraordinary margins it charges
You guys crack me up! These contracts go out to tender, and you don't win a tender if you charge too much! How do you know what margins Air Partner are working on? The Commercial Jets part of the business works on very low margins I believe. Maybe Blake 7 lost out on a deal to Air Partner and is feeling bitter?!

Face it - Air Partner have been around for nearly 50 years, there's money in the bank and they have a loyal customer base which isn't going anywhere in a hurry. Like it or not, they'll be around for a long time so I guess we'd all better get used to it!
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Old 30th Dec 2008, 00:32
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Monkey Boy

If they're using dodgy operators to win contracts on price, they are not going to last very long.

They've been telling customers for far too long how good they are. When clients start to see through the bullsh1t, AP start to lose clients, full stop. AP's profits have been far too big for far too long. It is a competitive world out there. And the old AP bullsh1t story of 'we have been around for a long time' is starting to wear thin.

As I said before, AP are the biggest in terms of chairs occupied, coffees consumed and air breathed under one roof. That's all.

Their share price says it all. They are on their way out.

They may have a bit of money in the bank, but it doesn't last long if you have to pay 120+ staff every month.

My opinion - the show's over.

MS
Affretage
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Old 3rd Jan 2009, 20:08
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Question

G-TTTT,

Ref your post on 24th December, #8:

"Did you get muddled that AP France grew again last year and its biggest rival closed down last month?"

Who closed down last month?!

Thanks.
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Old 3rd Jan 2009, 20:40
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guys

I said it before and I will repeat..


A/P have been riding the waves for 50 + Years they started as Air London way back with Tony Mack Snr (RIP) a lovely gentleman.


They Have Massive Surf Boards with the Worlds Best Surfers so no matter how big the Waves they will Survive and they deserve to they are not goingy to give up and drown

Good luck to all at A/P you deserve it

Lets Knock this one on the head Guys/Gals A/P are here to Stay


As I said in previous statements I Do not work or have any financial involvement with A/P but have known them for many Years



Regards
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Old 4th Jan 2009, 01:49
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A/P have been riding the waves for 50 + Years they started as Air London way back with Tony Mack Snr (RIP) a lovely gentleman.
They may have been riding the waves for 50 + years, but as and when the punters disappear, it becomes extremely difficult to stop 120 + staff from drowning in those rather high waves !!!

AP's average punter is rich. But they are unlikely to add to their wealth next year or the year after, so they will tighten the purse strings. And guess what, the first thing they will cut out is private air charter. Suddenly, first class with BA seems good value for money !!

I am not the only one who has lost confidence in AP's business model. Just look at their share price. Doesn't inspire confidence, does it ?

Middlemen / Parasites get cut out when the going gets tough !

If you still have shares - start selling !!!!!!!!

Best rgds
Affretage
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Old 4th Jan 2009, 15:34
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Pathetic (de)ramping Affretage

Gone short on AIP, have ya?!
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Old 4th Jan 2009, 16:28
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Learjet50

Agree Tony Mack Sr. was one of my mentors at LGW in the early 60s. I asked the questions, he gave me the answers, it still holds today
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Old 6th Jan 2009, 00:27
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Time Traveller

If you thing AIP is such good value, you had better start buying some shares. As for me, I am dumping my stock. Wanna buy some ?

Good luck.

Meilleures Salutations
Affretage
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Old 6th Jan 2009, 08:47
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Thumbs down

Sir

why do have such bias against Air Partner.

if you have shares in A/P its up to you what you do with them..

You are obviously an ex A/P employee who for some reason left the Company or were disposed of.

Air Partner Management may be misguided at the interview stage with how good am i however they soon find out the true colours of any employee they are not fools and they dispose of the fool

Stop calling A/P and let them get on with the job which we all admit will be difficult in the next year and we shall see if your predictions come true
If they do I will eat my Beret @@@@@

I Think Not ....

A/P have a Strong Customer Base Worldwide they will survive maybe by the skin of there teeth bt they will survive.


Is the Uk Royal Family/PM going to start using
Esay Jet for Travel around I THINK NOT

As I have said before I Do not work for or have any dealings with A/P any more however they will survive (Trust me I used to be a Doctor)



Au Revoir
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Old 6th Jan 2009, 15:31
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Some good posts on this subject and almost everyone has a valid point of view despite the badinage. Fact is that the share price is down from a high of over 1360 to as low as 444 last week - but in reality, who in the world of AIM listed firms is doing any better?

AP has always been a solid performer and we can expect the hard working boys and girls to pull themselves out of the mire through sheer hard work and determination. AP does that better than anyone and it has an unshakeable belief in its own strength which can be a double edged sword. Of course, that won't work if all the hard working boys and girls go leaving only the not so hard working. The AP staff really don't love their management - in fact quite he opposite so the good staff tend to be easy pickings for those upcoming brokers who want quick wins.

The problem for AP is that this time round the recession is deeper, the heights they reached in the good times higher (so the fall is further and harder) and for the first time they face the bad times with the weight of an enourmous and unyeilding overhead at Biggin Hill which must be bleeding them of cash at an alarming rate in the current market.

If recent their press releases are to be believed they are going to build a big hangar at Biggin Hill - I think I actually saw it under construction when I taxied past recently or is that Bernie Ecclestones place? Anyway, that must be another drain on the money front surely? There are always huge costs to that kind of project and even with finance it must take 3 million in hard cash to kick start it all. Then of course, even when it is finished there will be a few years of losses as the business builds up.

Then there is the AP senior management. They have been running AP for over20 years and as a result have no real experience outside the charter broking industry. Operating aircraft is very different to broking charter and arguably a lot more complicated for much less return. I know that they have some inherited expertise but even so there is little anyone can do to turn a profit in the current market. I am surprised that market analysts have not picked up on this Achilles Heel in the AP model - it may be AP's undoing because this time around they cannot just shed wages, dig in, work harder and pray - they have fixed overheads in terms of rents, aircraft mortgages or leases etc. which if not serviced will turn nasty and bite.

Over the years AP has shed a lot of talent which has gone on to add value to other operations or set up on its own - Chris Chapman or Jonathan Breeze for instance

This, I am reliably informed, has been a result of the managements short sighted attitude to anyone who thinks outside their particular box. They cannot be questioned or contradicted. The question is, as well as AP has done over the past few years, how much better could it have done if it had recognised and harvested all that talent? Talent is apparently stiffled under AP managment unless it is prepared to be told how to do things the AP way. That is a question that the management should ask itself and the perhaps shareholders should ask the management.

No matter, I read that they are now losing government contracts by the dozen to other brokers and upsetting existing customer base. Half year results can only be expected to be poor (surely leading to a further decline in the share price)and then inevitably cost cuts and massive redundancies.

The problem with being listed is that you always have to dance to the tune of the City - well you don't have to but if you don't you will need to have deep pockets to buy back your own shares. The AP information releases on the London Stock Exchange web site suggests they have 21 million in cash and a market cap of $47 million - So by calculation, the share can go to about 2.06 before you will be buying assets at book value - IE paying no premium or goodwill price for the share in real terms - the price you pay will exactly match the value of the assets divided by the number of shares. This assumes they lose no further cash in the meantime.

With hindsight, AP has maybe been too liberal with its dividend policy in the past as it now needs to keep up its history of returns to shareholders in order to keep the confidence of the remaining institutional investors. However, how does a Board justify keeping more than 20 million as a war chest as opposed to paying it to shareholders when times are good? One way of course is to build a big hangar and pay cash for it and I imagine that is what they are doing. That is fine when times are good but dangerous in bad times - more fixed overhead and no customers to fill it when it's finished. A big broker needs a few million in cash to buy charter lift in emergencies, particularly if it has contracts with governments as AP does - the government concerned essentially pays the broker to be able to move quickly on its behalf - something which protocol might prevent the government doing for itself. If the cash is in the bank they can weather the losses of the coming 24 months. If not it will be terminal no matter how big and ballsy they think they are. G-TTTT sounds like a post from the management the way he poffs on about the brilliance of AP and its wonders - if so he has missed an "I" from his callsign

So anyway, the good points for AP are that it has some good staff (excluding senior managment) and 21 million cash in the bank. The biggest threats to its survival are the disastrous investment in an operation at Biggin Hill and its senior management who have remained unchallenged for far too long - after all, it was the management who decided to buy the aircraft operation and move out of the comfort zone of broking. I can't imagine any other firm holding on to its managment for so long under such circumstances. heads have to roll surely? I see they have just appointed Justin Barber to the main Board. It is stunning that he has made it that far up he AP greasy pole - or maybe the greasy pole made its way up... In any case, perhaps he is in line to be the new CEO - in which case SELL

Maybe there shareholders will demand that the CEO steps down. I notice form the website that a number of shareholders voted not to renew the appointment of the Financial Director at the last AGM - quite unusual in public companies. What lies behind that?

Anyway, I am going to wait to see how it pans out - when AP shares get to 250 or less I'm buying! But I will wait for their new hangar and see what happens in the Board room...! Justin case....
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Old 6th Jan 2009, 15:49
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Antanov when the head constructer steps down, thus a form of initial leadership
mentoring falls away
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Old 6th Jan 2009, 16:10
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This, I am reliably informed, has been a result of the managements short sighted attitude to anyone who thinks outside their particular box. They cannot be questioned or contradicted. The question is, as well as AP has done over the past few years, how much better could it have done if it had recognised and harvested all that talent? Talent is apparently stiffled under AP managment unless it is prepared to be told how to do things the AP way. That is a question that the management should ask itself and the perhaps shareholders should ask the management.
This has always been their problem, and I suspect, always will be. Lions lead by Donkey's.
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Old 6th Jan 2009, 17:23
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Originally Posted by Monkey Boy
Lions lead by Donkey's.
Who is this person named 'Donkey' and by what of his are the lions being led?*



Antanov. you had me thinking you knew your stuff right up to this point........

Originally Posted by Antanov
AP has shed a lot of talent which has gone on to add value to other operations or set up on its own -......... Jonathan Breeze for instance
.........then you lost me.





*Sorry. I'm an apostrophe nazi
 
Old 6th Jan 2009, 18:16
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Who is this person named 'Donkey'
Ok, you got me bang to rights on that one, however there is a specific "Donkey" there I could mention.......


Antonov's post is very much on the money though, I'm guessing he may well be one of the many who made the break. There is life beyond Platinum House, and it's a good one too!
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Old 6th Jan 2009, 22:21
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I was staying out of this one but I must say, if the internet had smell-o-vision, I’d be overpowered. One of the things I’ve noticed with this thread is that there’s distinct difference of opinion between the people with many posts to their names and most of those with only a few.

Affretage - not sure what you’re background is but it’s pretty obvious that you’ve got some axe to grind, and you’re not the only one (if indeed, all the new posters are different people). Post #23 may be wishful thinking but certainly shows no resemblance of reality.

Monkey Boy

If they're using dodgy operators to win contracts on price, they are not going to last very long.

They've been telling customers for far too long how good they are. When clients start to see through the bullsh1t, AP start to lose clients, full stop. AP's profits have been far too big for far too long. It is a competitive world out there. And the old AP bullsh1t story of 'we have been around for a long time' is starting to wear thin.

As I said before, AP are the biggest in terms of chairs occupied, coffees consumed and air breathed under one roof. That's all.

Their share price says it all. They are on their way out.

They may have a bit of money in the bank, but it doesn't last long if you have to pay 120+ staff every month.

My opinion - the show's over.

MS
Affretage
“No, of course I’M not saying (insinuating) that they’re using dodgy operators, but if they were…” What a load of tripe. The only person to suggest as such is you who can’t produce any form of evidence to back up such an allegation.

Yes, it is a competitive world out there and AP have been doing well. How about you?

If you want to speak about coffee, you need to go and chat with Jet Republic.

With regard to the Stock Market, as has been pointed out, Air Partner is not the only company to have seen a drop in share price. The more observant among us have noticed that all of the world indices have taken a bit of a dive. The FTSE 100 is down something in the order of 30% over the last year.

Blake 7, regarding the helicopters in Chad, you obviously were part of the negotiations and have a copy of the contract signed by AP and the MoD, but you’re example is just as indicting of the MoD as AP. After all, we all know the success the MoD has had with its helicopter procurement.

Antenov, not associated with Will C at all are you? But then, it seems that you’re either not in the know and/or are fishing for the information about which you speak. How many aircraft at Biggin Hill are actually owned by AP? What other services are provided by AP? It may disappoint you but there are other activities that more than pay for the facilities at Biggin Hill. As it stands, the new hangar is going ahead. So, the investment at Biggin Hill is making them money, not losing it. But now I see you have only 10 posts.

Regarding cash, you seem to be unsure of whether having it is a good or a bad thing. You question AP’s holding large cash reserves and in the next sentence say that a good operator should. ?????. The fact that AP have large cash reserves means that they are more able to see out the current financial challenges while other brokers and operators fall by the way-side. Isn’t that good for the share holders?

Also, your assessment to the value of AP is also misguided and misleading. A company is not valued on the amount of cash on the books. It is valued on its total assets and its ability to make money in the future. Ultimately, serious investors look for long-term investments rather than making a “quick buck” (which contributed to the current financial mess). When you look around and ask "who will be here in five to 10 years time?", I’d put money on Air Partner being one of the survivors.

In all, this muck-raking exercise has run to two pages and there haven’t been too many responses from AP. Must be that they’re busy working to bring in some business.
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Old 7th Jan 2009, 08:07
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Smile

Chippe Chappy

Well said A/P are not fools and they will survive as its 2 of us eating our Breet s for Affretage (Never did like the French)


Regards and may they long suceed which they will
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Old 7th Jan 2009, 08:26
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In all, this muck-raking exercise has run to two pages and there haven’t been too many responses from AP. Must be that they’re busy working to bring in some business.
Not strictly true - I believe their staff are banned from posting on internet forums during working hours and many probably couldn't be bothered to do it from home!
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Old 7th Jan 2009, 12:20
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Not sure about AP not getting involved - Chippie Chappie seems to be very AP defensive?

Not sure why though as I thought I had said it was a great company that would pull through the bad times if any could but with some problems with its aircraft operation and the senior management.

I have met some of the AP broking staff during my time as a pilot in GA - but not for 5 years or so now as have been mainly corporate since then. I used to work for Gold Air earlier in my career - so yes Chippie Chappie you could say I was once associated with "Will C" but not any more - I cut my teeth at GAI but I moved on to fly bigger birds as soon as I could - chasing the dollars like anyone. Obviously I stilll have ex-colleagues and even friends working there. I also like to dabble in shares (though I sometimes wish i didn't!) so their position is interesting as they are capable of good earnings when times are good - hence my interest in buying AP shares. I am sorry if my knowledge of how listed companies are valued is not to your liking Chippie Chappie - i am sure you are correct and I am totally wrong but it seemed to me that if they had 21 million in cash and the market cap was 47 million (all from the LSE web site) then given brokers don't really have many assets as a rule (just computers, office furniture and the cash in the bank) the goodwill is worth approximately 27 million. If you divide the number of shares by the assets you get 205 per share. Anything over you are paying for their future earning potential and goodwill.

Of course, that may be complete rubbish like most of this forum!

Anyway, didn't mean to upset anyone. Just wish i hadn't broken a 5 year rule and made a post. It almost always ends up with someone slagging you with venom and hatred and it is really a negative forum when it should be positive and helpful.
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Old 8th Jan 2009, 07:22
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Antonov - I quote from your last post:
"Anyway, didn't mean to upset anyone. Just wish i hadn't broken a 5 year rule and made a post. It almost always ends up with someone slagging you with venom and hatred and it is really a negative forum when it should be positive and helpful. "

Perhaps you should just re-read your earlier post and enlighten us into which parts of the personal onslaughts and insults towards senior AP Management were not meant to "upset anyone", not include "venom and hatred" and not be "negative when it should be positive and helpful". Am I missing something here!!

AP are facing exactly the same issues as many other aviation companies, sorry, many other companies, given the current economic climate - it is tough for us all. Maybe our industry would benefit from us pulling together and supporting each other rather than tying to undermine those who are working tirelessly to try and ensure employee's jobs are safe, companies survive and we come out of this downturn stronger and more resiliant. Our industry gets enough of a 'bashing' from those outside it!!

Justin Barber has worked at AP for many years and has led one of the highest performing brokerage teams in the UK or even probably Europe. He has been rewarded for his continued hard word and dedication with a board appointment. Why not offer congratulations?!!

You are entitled to your opinion, however is it correct to hide behind 'Antanov' when making personal comments? I have known and respected Justin Barber for many years as have several other 'players' in our industry. Your opinion is not shared by many!!

Just a quick note on your post - some is true, but some very basic facts are not!

Trust me - I am 'well informed' on the topic of this thread!
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