You might want to look up the difference between weather and climate...

AFR article - The ugly truth about Alan Joyce

Behind a paywall

New to the subject eh, Wizofoz…:hmm:

If yer believe the scientists WX is related to climate. When talking about global warming, the climate, one then might cover the WX ‘associations’.




:)

Richard Goyder said that ‘despite what some say, Alan does have a heart’. That’s the funniest thing I’ve heard yet, and also the most revolting thing I have heard. Alan cares about Alan, his own personal wealth, and Shane Lloyd. That’s it. He couldn’t give a tuppence about anything else, or anyone else. To insinuate that he does, is plain farcical.

Chair Peeps are just side jobs, or retirement jobs. Aim is to hold about two or three at once. How many chair’s does the Virgin CEO hold? How can one run such a business yet oversee all that other stuff? Who could forget, the business collapsing during peak strains and she is in the Royal box at Wimbledon attending to her other chair responsibilities.

Bryan at Virgin was another. CEO ran rampant, did nothing. Yet when it all collapsed, threw him under the bus on Four Corners? Goyder at Wesfarmers, had the Target CEO doing all sorts of shifty **** with the numbers, now he never sacked him, he sacked himself.

The only way Alan will go is if he sacks himself. His departure will be on his watch and his financials. The chair is just a puppet.

2 peas in a pod there! Both telling each other what a great job they do whilst lining their own pockets & living in a fantasy world.

But noting trends in climate is NOT "predicting the weather:"

Weather is the atmospheric conditions at a particular time, climate is the weather trend/average over a period of time. Weather over time is the climate and climate can then be used to predict the weather. If the Weather starts to significantly change from the expected climate you are then experiencing climate change. If you have enough climatic trend data you can extrapolate that into the future and make a prediction of future climate patterns and therefore expected weather.

Not really, Next summer will be hotter than next winter. That's climate. What the weather will be like in Toowoomba on 23rd November 2023 is anyone's guess,

You are talking about a prediction. Weather is what it is at a particular time, so on the 23rd November 2021 (at 3pm) it was 20C in Toowoomba, overcast, 100% humid with a moderate easterly. The climate is listed as a warm humid subtropical climate. As for the climate trend November has temperature avg for Nov of 23' max to 15' lows with 8 days of rainfall. So a loose prediction (of weather) without actual precis information I could say on the 23rd Nov 2023 it will likely be around 19-27C, odds will be favoring on an easterly wind 15-25 kph, humidity 80-100% with likely cloud 4/8 to overcast and the chance of a storm around that date likely, rain around 25% chance.

Also if you say next summer will be hotter you are stating a change in the climate year on year, although over 100 years it could be part of a stable climate cycle.

Caused by what?

You are new to the subject..;)

Re the BoM: The last 100 years of daily WX recordings are utilised in the making of the record of climate. The BoM have WX records that go back much further, but they are hotter and very ‘inconvenient’.

The WX records of the last 100 years are ‘adjusted’, fed into a computer program that gives out the same answer no matter what info is inputted, and then out comes the climate record and future climate predictions. If you believe the BoM one can then glean the WX associations - eg, the WX will on average steadily get warmer at a particular location.

In the past on Pprune I have covered my dealings with the corrupt Blair Trewin. https://theconversation.com/profiles/blair-trewin-3692. To repeat one incident: During ‘discussions’ on the now defunct WXzone forum covering the very hot temperature records of the Victorian bush fires of 1851 Trewin made the claim that there were no official WX station in Melbourne and that whatever temperature reading that were recorded in the newspapers of the time were from thermometers located on the back veranda of houses under a hot tin roof. A simple google search showed, via the government gazette, that there were indeed an official WX station in Melbourne. More searching showed roofing iron had only just been invented so bugger-all hot tin roofs. So much for our Australian BoM climate expert who is deeply involved in building the global warming hysteria…:hmm:







.

This in theory is correct, there was a weather station in Melbourne, it was properly equipped with devices of the day and thermometers were mounted in locations that provided consistent ambient readings. However that station shut down during 1851 and a new station in the same location not officially operating until 1858. So there are no reliable records from 1851 to 1858.

Again 1851 is an odd point to pick as it's just as the Iron pre-fabs were just starting to arrive in Melbourne. Houses made completely of Iron and shipped from the UK to Victoria for makeshift housing for the goldrush. The buildings were completely wrong for the Australian climate, but about 3 still exist today. I can't get an exact date of the first arrival, but there was around 100 existing by 1855. Corrugated iron was indeed new technology, but that was during the 1830s, by the 1850s it was being mass produced for pre-fab items and shipped to places like Australia, and had already been shipped to California by the late 1840s. So the idea of an iron veranda being a thing during the 1850s is quite plausible.

The ugly truth about Alan Joyce article here, don't know if it's the same as the one behind the paywall mentioned above.

https://latest.worabia.com/the-ugly-...-joyce/270634/

From memory my research showed there were three prefab houses in Melbourne in 1851. There is a lot of literature about Melbourne roofing of the period as a lot of houses burnt down back then because of the roofing materials used. Apart from being either brush, wood, or tiles many of the houses also had a very flammable insulation. I very much doubt, somebody of the period able to afford a thermometer, would be placing it under a hot tin roof. Thermometers of the period were a fairly expensive item and were generally bought by governments or ‘enthusiasts’ who would likely have understood the requirements relating to the readings given by the placement of a thermometer.

I would like to see your links to the claims made referring to the official Melbourne government met station…:)





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https://lindenashcroft.com/2015/06/2...-in-melbourne/

That's a nice little run down. I was mistaken about the date without an official station, it was between 1851 and 1855, in 1855 it resumed recordings at the same site. It changed locations in 1857/58 which was my error in dates.

I completely agree with that, those involved with meteorological study were wealthy and very keen on the subject and generally were aware of the basics of use and where to take measurements. The measurements were not 100% accurate though but they would have been close to actuals so that you have an idea of what the climate was like. There is also a lot of written accounts from the gazettes and papers of the day, there's a link to a gazette describing the 1849 snowfall in Melbourne, that was obviously not a hot year, however the piece makes out it was a one off strange event in otherwise 'agreeable' weather.

I could have sworn last Monday's 4 Corners wasn't about the climate and weather...

If you want to talk about environmental issues ask the question why the Qantas Group is adding over 50,000+ fully recyclable plastic bottles to Australian Landfill every day.

Recycling has only been available in Australia for the last 30 years…

I was thinking the same thing, Leady.:hmm:

Can we return to the subject please, you lot?

And now we're on to recycling. Is it a full moon?

If its the ABC it is always about global warming…:hmm:


And from the Qantas web site:

“…The Qantas Group commenced reporting its international emissions for CORSIA compliance from 1 January 2019, complementing the reporting of domestic emissions it has been conducting under the Australian Government’s National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Scheme since 2009…”

https://www.qantas.com/au/en/qantas-...anet%3Aen%3Ann


Lead Balloon, the global warming crap supported by Joyce is one of the biggest threats to Oz aviation going forward. I would have thought you’d be interested to see just what sort of corruption the global warming ‘issue’ is founded on ?




:)

And were those matters the subject of scrutiny during the 4 Corners program the (original) subject of this thread)?

Qantas leased a Boeing 747-21AC from Martinair (PH-MCF) for a number of years. It was painted in a hybrid livery. It had sensors fitted (presumably on the landing gear) as the Flight Crew would always compare the readings to the Loadsheet, sometimes question it. My impression was that because of variances in passenger actual weight versus standard weights used, it was not that useful for anything but detecting gross errors, which to my recollection, there were not any.

On the point of standard weights, I have heard that audits conducted found them to be acceptable with no real issues. The main thing that has changed in the last 20 years is the charge for baggage issues, so that now everybody is trying to cram as much into overhead bins as they can. Carry on baggage is generally only accounted for an average of 5 kg per passenger. Its quite obvious that is now the minimum people are carting. I've never seen so many flights where cabin bags have to be put in the hold due to absolutely no more space in the cabin, esp on 737s.

The saddest/most telling thing about the 4 Corners story was the last couple of quotes from staff:

”We feel like management hate us”

That sums up the way aviation management has evolved, particularly since the pilots dispute of 1989 and the privatisation of Australian/Qantas.
A similar thing has happened at Cathay Pacific recently, a textbook example of how to stuff up what was once a quality product. Invariably the cause is egotistical CEO’s, hellbent solely on shareholder returns and lining their own pockets.

The direct result is that inevitably the airline product suffers and once great airlines become mediocre at best.

Impractical and unrealistic to re-nationalise airlines (though we should have got a stake in QF after that huge government capital injection) but there’s got to be some circuit breaker to halt this corporate greed.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....55b2e6bb7.jpeg

This has become the standard and it’s nothing new. Whoever took the photo is lucky they didn’t shove their hand down between the seat cushions, and whatever you do, never use the feral food tray - even if it ‘looks’ clean, by Christ it isn’t. In the good old days of the Ansett and Qantas duopoly most aircraft would undergo a thorough internal clean after the last flight of the night. First flight of the morning would be in a mostly clean, crisp aircraft. Today, it’s all aboard the ‘Salmonella Express’.

The other thing that you probably don't want to know is how often do the seats even get the slightest attention. QF has gone back to cloth seats so you can guarantee you are surrounded by whatever has gone before and is trapped in those fibers. At least the Leather seats you could wipe down with disinfectant every now and then, not surer they even do that. All you have to do is check out the windows for the grimy hair and face residues from previous passengers to have an idea of what soils the seats your head and backside are rubbing into. I've seen some pretty nasty stuff on seats, from urine, to blood to stuff I can't identify, usually a quick wipe to remove the visible evidence, and sounds like QF were using water wet cloths at best. I remember the days they had the small replaceable head covers on the seats, with velcro so they could be changed. Now your hair just wipes in whatever was before.

i didn't realise how big his head is till that video .
its huge .

…all which partly explains why some have their own aircraft..:cool:

Ha Ha, that’s funny. Yep, I noticed that also, and the weird thing is that I’ve met him in person and don’t recall his melon looking so big. Perhaps it has grown as he ages? A giant head on tiny shoulders, like an orange sitting on top of a toothpick!

Management don’t hate the staff, they just don’t care.

The attitude of any business flows from the directors. The directors of Qantas don’t care. They is getting their big pay checks and running Qantas down because they ‘know’ that airlines will be mostly banned under the global warming overlords. The directors, by appeasing the global warming overlords know they will have another cushy directorship to go to once Qantas, and most other airlines, is done. No director cares about somebody who is looking for a long term career in the airlines because they don’t see themselves there in the long term…:hmm:


Apparently, Qantas management has this belief that when the sun goes down and the wind don’t blow that the power just works under some miracle.

Yer just gotta ‘believe’…

“…From this year all Qantas Group buildings will be powered by 100 per cent renewable electricity in Australia…”


https://www.qantas.com/content/dam/q...ction-plan.pdf





:hmm:

QANTAS’ ISSUES NOT ‘ALL THE CEO’S FAULT’ ARGUES CHAIRMAN

Qantas chairman Richard Goyder has said Alan Joyce and his executive team have done “exceptionally well” in a strongly-worded riposte to the CEO’s critics.

Writing in the AFR, Goyder hailed his senior staff for steering the airline through a pandemic that “sent other airlines and their creditors packing”.

It comes amid criticism that Joyce’s annual salary increased by 15 per cent to $2.27 million despite a string of problems to plague the business, including record delays and hours-long call wait times.

The 900-word opinion piece argued most aviation companies globally are grappling with the same problems as Qantas.

“This is what happens when you shut down an entire sector for more than two years,” he wrote. “Companies make deep cuts to survive. Skilled people walk away because the uncertainty seems endless.”

He said Qantas is now well on its way to fixing its problems, quipping, “If you haven’t heard this, it may be because the data showing the improvement received far less media attention than stories showing how bad things got.
“In the meantime, the corporate obituary writers have been busy. Their analysis has (mostly) been unencumbered by what’s happening at other airlines, or that Qantas’ performance has turned around.”Goyder then said in order to “set the record straight”, he would give a “quick response” to common criticism.

In a section titled, “It’s all the CEO’s fault”, he said, “People who think Qantas couldn’t have failed or was enriched by government handouts are simply wrong.

“We don’t shy away from the service failures that happened as the airline restarted. But any reasonable assessment has to start with looking around the world and Australia to see how Qantas compares in an industry that is working incredibly hard to get back on its feet.

“We will continue that hard work to meet the high standards all stakeholders expect from us.”

In 2022, Qantas has faced a string of problems, including huge delays at Easter, hours-long call wait times, and even a revelation that the cabin crew of a Qantas A330 were made to sleep across seats in economy.

Last year, the Federal Court ruled the Flying Kangaroo was wrong to outsource 2,000 ground handling roles and subsequently rejected an initial appeal.

The airline last week insisted Joyce’s salary was effectively 77 per cent lower than pre-pandemic levels because of the lack of an annual bonus. Joyce also took no pay for three months in 2020 and for one month in 2021, alongside periods of reduced pay.

In August, Australian Aviation reported how Qantas recorded an underlying loss before tax of $1.86 billion in its full-year financial results.

Joyce said the result takes the before tax impact of COVID-19 on the wider group to $7 billion, which he called “staggering”.

“The past year has been challenging for everyone. We had to ramp down almost all flying once Delta hit and stay that way for several months before ramping back up through multiple Omicron waves as we all learned to live with COVID-19 in the community,” said Joyce.
https://australianaviation.com.au/20...gues-chairman/

Can people please, please, please not post links that are paywall protected???

Through the seething anger of Qantas customers came the resounding endorsement of the airline’s largest – and only substantial – shareholder, Pendal’s Crispin Murray.Murray, unsurprisingly, reckons Qantas’ current $400 million buyback – after the carrier gobbled $870 million of Commonwealth subsidies in financial 2022 – is “both prudent and appropriate capital management” after tapping the market for $1.4 billion of fresh equity in June 2020.
https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0...5664edee16eda9What Alan Joyce is leaving Qantas, as the cost of capital rises dramatically, is a capex mountain like nothing in the airline’s history. Michael Quelch

It is certainly arguable that the best use of $400 million, in the company’s current position and after more than a decade of capital underinvestment, was handing it back to the owners and propping up the share price.

Murray anticipates Qantas shares returning to pre-COVID levels (north of $7) and calculates that one of “the two main sources” of Qantas profits being even higher in 2024 than in 2019 is its international flying (including Jetstar’s).

“When you look at international capacity today, Qantas is back to 60 per cent of where they were pre-COVID, but the other carriers are only back to 50 per cent,” he said.
Murray’s data points seem disobliging to the argument he wants them to support.

Using the latest available data from the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics, the Qantas Group’s international market share fell from 29.5 per cent in June 2019 to 26 per cent in June 2022, despite the near total evaporation of capacity operated by Chinese and other East Asian carriers.

By comparison, Singapore Airlines’ (group) market share has nearly doubled to 20.5 per cent from 10.5 per cent. Emirates, Qatar, Air New Zealand and United – all natural premium competitors – have each grown their share.

Total passengers carried between Australia and the United States has nearly halved from June 2019 simply because Qantas and Jetstar have more than halved theirs. Delta and United are back to where they were.

Qantas is currently so short of international aircraft that its dog-tired mid-range A330s are operating ultra-long haul routes to India and Los Angeles with severe payload restrictions and crew sleeping alongside the passengers.

Yes, that’s mostly due to COVID – as mothballed A380s take many months to reactivate – but it is also a product of strangled fleet investment through the Alan Joyce era.

To be clear, Joyce has done many, many good things at Qantas, particularly effectuating a lower and more flexible cost base. Until recently, these efficiency measures were even legal!

In 2008, Joyce inherited Geoff Dixon’s order for 20 A380s and 65 787s and a fleet whose average age “is forecast to remain between 8.5 and 8.9 years [based on] the existing contractually committed long-term fleet plan…”

Until June 2019, nearly 11 years into the job, Joyce had never ordered a single new aircraft for Qantas mainline.

Joyce might’ve been right to defer and then cancel eight A380s, though those could’ve been cycled in to replace the oldest ones (now 14 years old). Reducing the 787 order to just 25 inarguably killed a great deal of potential growth. The average age of the fleet, meanwhile, has blown out to 14.7 years while Qantas has returned more than $3 billion to shareholders.

The Qantas fleet has never been this old.

The A330s are now, on average, 16 years old (the eldest are 20), yet Qantas has still ordered no replacement for them. Doing so will require capex – not built into forecasts – of approximately $US9 billion ($13.5 billion) at list prices, and then take many years to arrive.

The mainline domestic fleet of 737-800s is now, on average, 15 years old (nearly a third of them are 20), and is worked harder than almost any other 737 fleet in the world. These 74 planes are at the absolute twilight of their usable lives and replacing them will cost approximately $US8.5 billion at list prices. Qantas placed that order, for A320neos, with Airbus in May this year. Airlines have been receiving this aircraft since 2016 but Qantas will get its first just before Christmas of 2023.

Qantas has also ordered 12 A350-1000ULRs, which can fly non-stop from Australia to London and New York, to arrive from 2025. These will cost $US4.2 billion at list prices.

On international routes, Qantas is competing with much younger fleets. Singapore, for example, has retired all 12 of its initial A380s and since 2016 has taken delivery of 62 A350s and 35 787s. Its fleet is just 6.5 years old. What’s more, Singapore has renewed its fleet while maintaining very strong cashflows.

Joyce has preferred to retrofit new seats onto his old planes. While that has reduced his capex, he runs at a major opex disadvantage on fuel burn and maintenance.

And Qantas loves talking up its sustainability credentials but when you willingly fly aircraft that burn 25 per cent more fuel per passenger than your competitors, your environmental credentials are all too easy to see through.

By rough calculations, in the next decade, the Qantas Group will need to spend up to $US28 billion to replace its fleet without even growing it. Bear in mind this is based on list prices, to which airlines command significant discounts, though this estimate also excludes any replacement of its A380s.

Qantas also needs major, urgent technology investment. qantas.com is absurdly unreliable, constantly crashing on users mid-task. Customers have faced hours-long waiting times on the phone mostly for things they should be able to do, but can’t, on the Qantas app or website. It is a far cry from the seamless mobile touchpoints of most major foreign airlines. It is the shoddy amenity of a virtual monopoly.

This is chronic underinvestment in systems, which is extremely expensive and slow to fix (maybe Joyce could poach some engineers from ANZ Plus?). It is almost completely unrelated to COVID, but has probably done the most damage to customer satisfaction.

These are just some of the reasons why many market participants are maddened by the latest Qantas buyback. They reasonably wonder why anyone would be conducting a buyback at this famished point in the company’s capex cycle.

Of course Pendal and others prefer buybacks to capital expenditure, and this is a powerful incentive for Joyce and the board to prefer them too. Institutional investors prefer buybacks because institutional investors are myopic. They will be long gone from the register by the time a company’s looming bills need to be paid.

Joyce should be leaving Qantas just as these new planes start arriving. His timing will be impeccable.

To repeat, Joyce’s doggedness on the cost side is laudable and the market loves him for it. But what Joyce is leaving his ultimate successor, as the cost of capital rises dramatically, is a capex mountain like nothing in the airline’s history, and one almost entirely of his design.

Agreeable to a fault, chairman Richard Goyder is nowadays performing a vigorous and public defence of Joyce’s honour. Let’s see how that scrubs up in a few years’ time.

And that is the same hole Ansett dug itself. This is the main issue with the QF group, with no significant capital partner they have to fund that cost themselves. So small reserves of cash and what looks like good profits pale in comparison with the CapEx required in this industry. AJ looks like he has done a great job, by restricting costs, but this has been at the expense of new equipment. IF like Rex they had in house RnD and maintenance shops capable of extending the life of your prime workhorses, fair enough. But QF outsources most of its maintenance now making older aircraft very expensive to operate. The QF success over the last few years before covid were just smoke and mirrors. Now they really have a fight on their hands moving forward. I do remember a quote from many years ago about new aircraft needing less maintenance so less engineers required, well AJ, the fleet ain't new anymore...

Rex will have to replace their Saabs soon enough. They're starting to cannibalise airframes to have serviceable parts.

I don't recall fleet replacement being a hole for Ansett. When the AirNZ storm broke in 2001 the domestic fleet's average age was less than 12 years.