You can round out Rex's SYD-MEL flights with ZL009 with 46 pax. That gives them 252 pax across five flights. Revenue would likely not cover fuel and airport charges.

Yeah, but hardly the teens and twenties the likes of PoppaJo have been quoting
Likely still going to fill a few more seats today

The numbers that PJ quoted were accurate at the time. They were essentially confirmed independently by the study put together by The Australian newspaper. How many times does that point need to be made?

But, staying with the present situation, here's how MEL-SYD looks for Rex tomorrow;

ZL018 30
ZL042 49
ZL102 48
ZL152 56
ZL182 28

That's 211 pax over five flights. That sees the day out for Rex on one of the busiest city-pair routes in the world with sub-30 percent loads. They would have lost money for the entire day on that sector and it should be their money-maker.

Separately, you were correct in stating that -MFM will be their next jet (anyone's guess as to why they didn't request -RXU). Don't assume that it will have the same hex code as the previously registered aircraft though.

The Rex numbers won’t be accurate until pushback. They will probably double, or you would hope, triple. To make money, well, they need to quadruple.

So it's fair to say that REX's numbers are on the improve, all be it slowly and admittedly, far from where they would want them....
If they are looking long term, then growth is far better than stagnant or declining

Unrelated, can anyone elaborate on why, when searching QF, half the seats on a lot of Sydney-Melbourne flights are blocked?

wait - going off your subsequent post, are you saying these are good or even acceptable loads on this city pair..?

Load numbers in their 30’s or 40’s are loss making numbers, not even close to breaking even. Simply awful numbers and no sustainable long term.

They’re better than the 12 average a flight last week.

Yes and no
No obviously as some low loads are negative $$
Yes
Numbers are trending up
Passengers are experiencing REX Jet and from trip reports, are having better experiences that QF/JQ and VA and passengers are getting more bang for their buck
Being somewhat of an unknown and their lack of mass advertising, a slow start was always on the cards

Cast your minds back a few years pre pandemic
REXs loads had never been high, low to mid 50%s average over 10 or so years
But they always turned a profit, not massive, but a profit is a profit....

Post pandemic
REX has moved away from some low yielding routes
Kangaroo Island, Albury-Melbourne, Grafton, Lismore, Ballina, Bathurst, Cooma etc
Some through direct competition, some indirect
They moved their SAABs to Port Macquarie, Coffs and Devonport, even had a lash at Sydney-Canberra
Their SAAB loads have are now up in the 60%-70% range
Most of the above was a direct result of QF bullying REX

But REX are in no way down and out
They may have exited some low yielding routes, but QF lost the battle on Melbourne-Mount Gambier and Wagga, citing lack of frames for Wagga and passenger revolt (sorry low patronage) for Mount Gambier
Then buying Cobham
50% increase of 737s by Christmas
Likely trans-con and higher frequencies on the triangle as a result

Again, it's more likely REX is looking at 5 years, 10 years, not how many bums on seats in the short term

Right so things will magically improve in 5 or 10 years. That worked for Tiger. Only lost a billion in 13 years. In fact, as time went on, things got worse. Same at Ozjet. Same at Strategic.

They are definitely not a Pilot. I know some pilots think they can run airlines but $hit this stuff is off the charts, do us a favour and stay the heck away from this industry with this dribble.

Where are they getting the Sydney and Melbourne slots from? Thought they were all allocated.

After years of gestation, Tiger were operating profitably with very high load factors. The stupid decision by VA to convert them from A320s to 737s, then stop half way, meant they were losing money with full aircraft. The market exisisted for them to have a profitable business.

A "lack of mass advertising" was entirely Rex's call. They decided to get into jets, cut their marketing budget and relied on Sharpie spruiking on Sunrise. Great plan. That whole "slow start" was on them, and it most assuredly wasn't inevitable.

Same same with the agency deal. They could have signed up with Flight Centre from the get-go. It took them 18 months of being bled white to get the message.

Where do you come up with this stuff? Regional load factors have been in low- to mid-70s for the entire time that Rex has been in existence, bar 2020-21 when they slumped into the 60s. By Rex's own accounting they've flown high-50s to 60-something load factors for the last half a decade. Even with the leg-up from subsidised routes, no one makes money with half loads.

As the Zen Master was fond of saying, "We'll see."

As many a failed enterprise has learned, 5-10 year plans are meaningless if you go broke in three. You need to be able to navigate the short term in order to get to the long term.

cheers Sharpy 👍🏼

Update
ZL 31 Sydney Melbourne 46 now 65
ZL 125 Sydney Melbourne 68 now 84
ZL 141 Sydney Melbourne 45 now 63
ZL 161 Sydney Melbourne 47 now 63
ZL 009 Sydney Melbourne ?? now 54
Not including business....
329 / 66 average from 168 seats around 40%

Yep, thanks. I can see those numbers myself.

Where do you think the break-even point is for one of those flights?

Good question Mick
I'll have a stab at 100-120
As you know there are an awful lot of factors in determining a break even
I have not as yet looked at other routes or weekend loads
I'm assuming (without looking) they are doing better on the Weekends and Gold Coast and Adelaide, which may push up their average loads though
If I were running REX and got to triple digits average by November, then that would be a very encouraging outcome

Lets be kind and say 90 pax for break even. How many break even flights in the last six months?

What a pointless question
I know of hardly any new entrants getting huge loads just after start up
Remembering we only really got back up and running this year

If your bet is 90 to break even, then November is a given
I'd reckon, factoring other routes, I think REX ain't far off, particularly when you factor weekend loads

You cannot guess at a break even load factor until you have an idea of their yields. Even the cost side of the profit equation is muddy because we don’t know when their lease escalators kick in. Given that fuel on the MEL-SYD route is costing $5,200 per sector average this week you would guess that the total cost is somewhere near $12k Maybe more.

For comparison, Southwest Air's costs on a similar leg would be around $7,700 USD in 2021. Fuel has only increased since then.

Just looked at a SYD MEL return flight late in last week of Aug. $213 round trip. The break even at that number is laughable.


editted to correct SWA data. Their costs are around $0.106/ASM.

Historically industry typical break even load factors are around 75%. When a carrier achieves significant cost savings they often squander it by offering too low fares.