There is no such thing as a straight forward part 121 operation in CASA 's eyes. Any new AOC application will be very long winded and cost $$$$ - that's after the key operational appointments have been approved by CASA and issued their instruments. If a start- up operation is only just mustering together their senior team I cannot see how their AOC will be in the final stages, maybe embryonic stages.

Nothing will start until they get a HOFO. CEOs and CFOs can talk rainbows and lollipops with CASA for as long as they wish, the dial has not moved.

Bonza might spend the festive break putting manuals and it’s case together. However it will take Canberra 6 months to ‘review’ them. I would gather a million questions would follow soon after.

It really depends how much patience and cash they have.....to wait. The bill to have a MAX sit idle for a month is in the region of $350,000.

Haven’t they only just advertised for a ‘safety manager’? CASA aren’t going to pay them much attention until they have at least the head positions filled.

Wouldn't any professional new start have jumped up and clarified the position, free press/publicity and all that for their future?

Just wondering but when was the last time a new OAC was attempted that wasn't associated with an existing operator?
Never an easy exercise with CASA at anytime, new operator with no association...?

Statements/perception/reality don't really add up.

Taking out the annual Canberra festive reduced workload period, they have about 100 days to its inaugural flight (going off it’s April claim).

Im Bloody Possible

Friend just pondered the chances of the Tiger AOC being dusted off, tweaked and presented to CASA.
Whether could be done/how receptive CASA would be....??

He also wondered as both money sources are USA could Bonza be the "new" Jetstar for Virgin MK 2??

Bain putting more lipstick on the pig before sale

Jesus!.....this tips us over the edge to official White Trash.

....and while I'm here, WTF happened to that other dumbass startup...Doug, or Brad or whatever?

Man, you'd have to have manure for your brain.

Brad raised a total of 3000 dollars ( after several resets of his clock). Probably went out for a big dinner.

reminded me of a David Brent interview

Priceless!
So the entire management team so far is made up of ronin desperados who have been shown the door from such revered entities as Australia Post ("hey kid, wanna buy a watch"), Old Virgin Blue and Tigerair.
You'd think there was a pretty good reason why these bozos are currently unemployed and clutching at straws.
Marvellous, just 'king marvellous!
Still, it may be worth a laugh, but it does devalue our profession.

After hearing a few interviews I still don't get it. New aircraft, low frequency, under served cities pairs etc. But if you look at all the airlines he references none of them did that. They were originally charter operators with old aircraft operating charter services to either holiday destinations or secondary airports. Bonza is none of this and there are no secondary airports in Australia. So I have no idea why he thinks it will work in Australia as he is not doing what all the airlines he references did. Second to this Australia doesn't have a "winter sun" market which is what alot of LCC in cold weather climates rely on. What is the leisure market in Australia out of school holidays? Australia doesn't have a Las Vegas or Orlando type destination either.

Gold Coast would be close. But how big is the market from Albury or Wagga or Dubbo to GC? Maybe bigger than you'd think. Will be interesting to see.

Spot on - Allegiant made money by flying Maddogs that had minimal ownership costs, sometimes only 2-3 times per week, on routes that would not make sense for a large scale airline. There is no way that you can replicate that using shiny new Maxes among such a small population without a well defined target market, Australian labour costs, and manage to turn a buck by filling those 189 seats at leisure fares. If you were running 100 seat aircraft that were being thrown at you for nothing, then there may be something to it. But this just doesn't stack up.

Avalon
Gold Coast
Toowoomba
Western Sydney (eventually)

Thats a few places I reckon they’d be looking at for bases.

Just a few routes that would show promise 2-3 times a week that are possible with bases like that:

Avalon
- Gold Coast
- Ballina
- Newcastle
​​​​​​- Proserpine
- Hervey Bay
- NZ?

Toowoomba
- Newcastle
- Cairns
- Darwin
- Melbourne
​​​​​​- Adelaide

Gold Coast
- Wagga Wagga
- Albury
- Proserpine
- Cairns
- Townsville
- Darwin
- Canberra
- Hobart
- NZ?

Adelaide
- Newcastle
- Proserpine
- Ballina
- Hervey Bay

Yup, and every pax gets guaranteed their very own row to snooze in. Or to put it another way, there will be more than ample “social distancing”.

The question is of the 40 weeks a year that are not school holidays who is going to fly on those routes? You are really looking at the 60+ market. The problem there is they have money to spend and are not necessarily interested in putting up with the all the LCC antics or driving for hours to get to the airport. I just don't see enough passengers available to make it viable all year round. This is where Europe and the USA are different. There is a significant market flying to Las Vegas and Florida in the winter, or the Mediterranean/Canary Islands/Middle East that make it work.
If it was my money I would be looking at doing exactly what the airlines he referenced did and run school holiday period RPT then run the rest of the year as a Charter operator as there isn't a 180+ seat charter operator in Australia. I imagine there would be enough football/mining/military work to make it viable the rest of the year.

Not really. It’s all contracted out.

I'd really laugh if they thought Wagga or Albury to the Gold Coast would work, in a 737 Max, when you can't even make an Ejet work direct to Sydney, where 90% of traffic flows. Still no way those jets would be doing enough flying to pay the ROI or financing arrangements without a bread and butter 24/7 main route.

There is also a reason older aircraft generally do FIFO, less capital investment, so the machine can sit idle for most of the day at not much expense. Otherwise your corporate tender bid will include paying for the massive loan on a new aircraft for the whole day, which would blow it out of the water.

Virgin used to run a 737 into Mildura. Even the -700
was too big.

Sometimes its not about whether the aircraft will work for the route ! If Boeing finance are despite enough to move Max's off their factory parking lot and government regulators would like for regional centres to receive scheduled air services, then anything is possible.
Look how Emirates initiated their New Zealand services from Sydney, purely in response to parking fees at Kingsford Smith and perhaps cargo capacity later. Nothing to do with aircraft suitability.
Problems occur later when the airline attempts to expand on a flawed revenue stream or competitors come onto a developed route with aircraft that operate more efficiently.

Any subsidy offered by government state or federal for an air route service has to be put to tenders first. The most a council will subsidise an operation is via waiving airport fees. Nothing will come close to covering the cost of operating a 737 on those routes. Boeing does not give 737 away to small customers, large airlines will get big bulk discounts for showing loyalty to Boeing and creating trust in the airframe. Even if you got a Max for 'cost' you are still talking about $50+ million USD. You can buy 50 or so older 30 seat turbo-props for that price and flood the regional market properly.

Emirates can do what it likes, its already on a subsidised cost base through poor worker conditions for staff and fuel benefits. Big airlines do some things for profit, others for principle, like fighting charges they don't like, they can act like spoiled kids sometimes. New entrants don't have the capital to waste airframes on loss making, ill fitting routes.

Well, seeing that it is ex VA/VB staff putting the airline together, maybe Godfrey and Sherrard will make a return and lend a hand and put a few manuals together on the back of some beer coasters? And good luck getting CASA to do any work at the best of times, let alone now, October 2021. They will already be planning their Xmas shutdown and they will be in ‘holiday go slow mode’ from now until September 2022. Surely COVID poses a grave risk to employees welfare and its to risky working with the people from Bonza?

I was ridiculed several months ago for mentioning ‘inflation’ as being an emerging issue. I was correct in my previous comments and still stand by them. Oil prices are rising, building material costs are rising, house prices are exploding and freight costs are ballooning. There is nowhere left to go. Interest rates are low and no country wants to raise them to stem inflation. Reducing them further is impossible, so inflation is inevitable. Best of luck to any new airline startup at this time in history. Success is unlikely. I’m happy to be proven wrong so let’s bookmark this post and revisit it in 12 months time. The can has been kicked down the road for a long time now, eventually the road runs out.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp....icle/100572046

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/thin...ation-reality/

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www....ite-gauge.html

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www....ation.amp.html

No doubt, the US especially is printing money and giving it away. The national debt figure has just been blown away by Trump and now Biden and is massive compared with the Obama days where they tried to block supply because of debt. Massive Covid stimulus on the back of GFC stimulus, it's starting to bite now and the economy has become used to living with high stimulus input. Add the stupid US/China Trade war and yes, the next few years will see US inflation go bonkers unless something drastic happens.

Australia has managed to remain almost fiscally sensible in all this, that does not mean we are immune, but much better off at a baseline. Still actual inflation, when you take into account all the things mentioned is through the roof. CPI is a silly measure of inflation as the government uses the supermarkets to cap basic item prices here so the number means very little. Ever wondered why milk stays $1 a litre? Bread $2 a loaf... so on, if inflation had affected those goods they should now be at least double those numbers and maybe significantly more.

It seemed with Tiger out, and Virgin repositioned, the market was finally setting itself up for a sustainable medium to long term.

I don’t understand why people I speak to get all angry at me when I start questioning the ongoing viability of ZL Jet and Bonzo. I kept getting shot down....just be thankful that these orgs are creating jobs and giving us a wage...and so on...

Nobody asked them to start these airlines. They weren’t needed. These jobs were never meant to be created. People are just wasting other people’s time. It’s all it is. Pilot’s careers down under will be a much more sustainable profession for each individual and their families, with only JQ/VA/QF. Alliance/Vara/Network on the side.

Well said above.

I reckon there is a hole in Aus for a true ULCC.

Tiger proved it will work, yes burnt some cash and some seemingly stupid decisions but the core business worked. We all know the 737s and the Bali and the xyz caused much pain. But the model worked.

Think back to Air Paradise (I think). New Indonesian airline, A300’s I think, they were smashing it, Bali direct to the capitals. Then very sadly boooooom then booooooom 2 and no more Paradise.

People want cheap flights simple. If Bonza have cheap flights it will work. Yes they need the schedule but ya have to start somewhere.

Straya - Tall poppy syndrome alive and well!

Jetstar and Tiger were the equivalents of kids spending their parents cash. Whether either was doing well no one really knows, but considering Tiger was shelved probably permanently is saying not that well. Creative accounting could make either look better or worse depending on Mothers agenda. So far the only semi low cost airline in Australia that has proof of concept is Rex. Even Jetstar uses Mothers buying power to get cheap airframes and airport deals, slots, advertising, fuel hedging etc, so it's no real case in point of working LCC in Australia, it is proof of an industrial relations device unfortunately.

The schedule is very important. You could offer $1 fares from MQL to ASP but that's pointless if there are no passengers offering.

Whereas if the passengers are wanting to travel SYD-OOL cheaply but you refuse to fly the route??????

How do you figure that?

Whilst JQ might use ‘Mother’s’ buying power, Rex used a 1 in 100 year pandemic to get very cheap leases and essentially qualified flight crew.

Quite simply Rex is the only surviving independent airline in Australia at the moment, and it's model isn't exactly full service. Not strictly talking about RexJet or whatever its called either, I mean Rex in general. Tiger and J* are/were subsidiaries of a mother company. J* might pretend to be separate from mother but it's quite clear they operate with shared interests. Q-Link is the same boat as J* and co.

There are some distinct differences between operating a separate viable/successful airline and buying/creating subsidiaries that are tools for either blocking competition, stifling industrial unrest or such. Southwest is the example of a successful LCC, Ryanair the ULCC. J* and Tiger just prove that we need scope clauses in Australia and are not really viable in their own right, not in the long term, the revenue either has made is pitiful with hopeless ROI.

There are one or two other airlines in Australia that would be surprised to hear that.

If you mean Alliance, that's pretty much a charter company that leases big airplanes to other airlines for routes, and Air North is a basket case. Does skippers do RPT at all anymore?

The problem is you just end up flying to the same places at the same times paying the same for fuel, landing charges, enroute charges, terminals etc as everybody else. There is no point of difference in Australia as there are no secondary airports to fly too. Go build a secondary airport in every city in Australia and LCCs will get really big and bring real pressure on the other carriers. Until then there is no market in Australia for real LCC. Cairns is a classic example. There is a huge market there for a LCC but when you are getting cleaned out by the airport in a low margin game how do you actually make money?

Yes Cairns…. “Cleaned out” is a good summary. Ask why the local bus service doesn’t swing into the airport in what is undoubtedly a tourist dependent town….. $$$

As an example, look to the Gold Coast for what “could be”. 20 metre walk out of the arrivals hall and you can jump on a double decker bus (with luggage space) straight to Broadbeach. I think it was $6 last time we used it!!

We need more Avalon type airports (built by Wagner’s hahaha) close to major cities.

And look what QF is doing to Airnorth by jumping on the Darwin - TSV/CNS routes. Especially TSV, which Airnorth has built from scratch.

They should have pushed harder years ago create a bigger ejet network ex-DRW. E195’s to Bali or down to southern Australia.

Either that or stick to their knitting and just focused on being the dominant turboprop operator in the NT. Now they’re going to be squeezed like all the other regionals that went broke in the last decade.

Australia does have a viable market underneath QF (less than 70 seater routes). REX dominate this with the Saab and low costs.

IMHO there’s a case for another large independent running a combination of B1900 and C208’s from bases all over the country as well. A combined Torres Strait/Tiwi Islands/Kimberley/Bass Strait network. Historically there’s always been work in these areas for that size aircraft.

If “Bonza” can find a niche flying 2-3 times a week to some places, go for it. I don’t think they’ll ever be very big though and with that, means they’ll be vulnerable to Jetstar just coming in and also flying 2-3 services a week to cut their grass.