The distant future may see some 787s doing LH but we are talking about the distant future. You wouldn't want to hold your breath.

Thats just your opinion right? Or is there a reference somewhere?

Both Scurrah (when he was around) and Hrdlicka have indicated over the past year a desire to eventually return to some long-haul operations (probably just LAX and HND) but they believed international would come back slowly which has turned out to be correct.

The 77Ws went back to their mortgagors as part of administration whilst the A332s were returned to lessors. The 77W was too big for VA's needs and they have indicated that something like the 789 would probably be more suitable for their requirements in future particularly as it would be flexible to do both HND and LAX.

Do I believe that VA will return to long-haul? I don't know. It certainly isn't the most important thing they should address with getting their core domestic franchise profitable being where they need to concentrate their minds once state borders reliably reopen.

With regard to the former Long Haul crew...

Have any been offered positions in the new entity?

Krusty, yes as per the seniority list from the top (Group Date Of Joining). 88 positions published (44 Capt 44 FO). Some are now in training. A few 737 crew (who were not compulsory redundancy) bailed last year for REX and Alliance (Ejet) along with a few ex LH at those operators. Some other redundant crew are in Pionair(146), a few on bizjets, instructing, GA etc. But I would say the bulk of the 900 total redundant last year are probably not in a flying role, which should not surprise you.

Thanks slice.

Sad Times for many still.

If L/H crew take the 73 slots…if L/H were to restart would they have first go at those slots or would it go to the next people on the GDOJ list?

All bidding goes off the GDOJ list and if they take a 73 spot, they’re type Frozen.

Partially correct there. Bidding is in accordance with the GDOJ but pilots are not frozen to the 737 unless they're in a tiny minority to have never flown the type before (ie E Jet to A330).

I reckon they need to get domestic profitable first and then IPO (and Bain exiting) before longhaul gets a look.

Bain was on record of saying they'll want to re-enter Long Haul in the future, but has said that Long Haul is a long while off.

If International Travel recovers to 50-60% of 2019 figures, I could see Bain re-entering LAX only (or HND if Int'l travel recovers faster and they somewhat manage to keep that slot) before exiting the company.

Otherwise if Int'l Long Haul travel demand lags behind 2019 figures, Bain will likely concentrate on Domestic and Short Haul international before exiting.

Anyone else hearing VA are pushing for 100 73s and a dozen or so 78/350s?
please tell me it’s true!

...and so the Bain smoke and mirrors show starts to ramp up, gotta do something to con any possible investors that she's all "you beaut", let us take your money and we'll give you the ride of a lifetime. :ok:

Mainline fleet up to 77 aircraft now. With 20 odd Max’s on order. Always a rumour about WBs. At this stage I doubt there is any truth to it. 2yrs time maybe. Crystal ball gazing and all

out of curiosity, what was the VA fleet breakdown pre covid? (Including TT and VANZ if possible)

Another 44 inactive pilots awarded 737 F/o slots as they are planning 104 aircraft.Pre COVID with VA and VANZ the number was 84.

Is JH trying to out Borghetti Borghetti? 20 airframes over the precovid fleet sounds like she is preparing for a capacity war once all the borders are open which wont be until April 22 if the WA Bonaparte is to be believed. Probably the first casualty she is aiming for will be Rex but capacity wars are like the nuclear option.

Well, let's not forget that VA are now owned by a Private Equity firm with the moral compass of a virulent disease microbe - they will try anything to make a quick buck and will not care a crap if they take VA down again as the modus operandi of these privateers is that their first act is to raise loans in the target company's name to pay themselves back for the takeover and let the target business carry all the risk. So, if it fails, it fails. PE walk away with a bag full of money and everyone else can go screw themselves.

Tiger 320/737 and Virgin 737 was 98 combined in FY19. Widebody domestic capacity was equal to around 5 737s.

Pretty much the 104 quoted above.

I really don’t think you need to have an all out capacity war against Rex, and it’s what 5 737s, to remove it. Lack of scale will basically kill that operation. I mean it will probably go on for a bit, Tiger persisted 13 years with no earnings. Not sure if they have as much patience.

With the return of the crews made redundant, are they required to pay back any of the pay out cash or has it worked out to be a golden handshake. You would have to think they had it best- good pay out 12 months off and slip right back in to the left on the good cash. If you were senior I’m sure there was no doubt that you would be back in the time frame in the EBA.