Our heart is in the country (Armidale now excluded)
 

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a59cac1f2c.jpg

Wow. That’s the sort of petulant BS you expect from the CCP.

I have a feeling there is not much difference between being the first city to be granted resumption of services and the last city, as their issues are unlikely to improve in the short term.

Cites "Supply and Demand" to support expanding 737 ops...
and in the same PARAGRAPH moans about the lack of regional pilots willing to fly*
Now THAT is "Supply and Demand"














*(for ****ty terms and conditions)

Double the pay and they'll have every saab crewed.

Three additional 737s to join the fleet as Rex announce a small loss, on the last day of VH-RQG being in the fleet.

The last line of the Media Release got me.

Cop that Armidale!

That "small loss" is largely propped up by Rex booking a $20.7 million gain on a revaluation of the PAG convertible notes and warrants, a handful of other book value losses/gains, and the waiver of a settlement payment by Cobham that netted out to a $4.3 million "benefit" - total booked benefit being $28.8 million.

Rex actually incurred an operating loss of around $27 million for the six months to 31 December 2023; somewhat astoundingly NJE continues to lose money.

Losing money, losing crew and cutting routes. It is heading inexorably in one direction.

Mick, when does the cash run out? Assuming they continue to burn 50-60m per year.

The fairytale will only go as far as the money pot will let it.

It's a bit hard to say. They have $30 million left in the PAGgybank. Here though it is worth noting that after drawing down $30 million in H1FY24, their net cashflow was only +$5.3 million. Suffice to say, they are running out of runway and still not airborne.

At least one of the important numbers is buried in the notes, namely the segment results. RPT (domestic jet and regional) clocked a $25.1 million loss on revenue of $315.8 million. That means that for every dollar of revenue they booked for RPT, they spent $1.08. Dress that up any way you like and it is a problem.

But hey, what do I know? Apparently there's a school of thought that if you don't talk about it then it's not really a problem.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....675c1f2702.jpg

Rex out blaming everyone else again for their demise. Jimmy just can’t help himself.

“Due to relentless poaching of Rex’s pilot group by other airline carriers, on 22 September 2023, Rex announced that the airline was forced to
make further reductions to its regional network.”

Someone needs to send a dictionary to Baxter Road

Yep. Astounding that people running a ASX listed company don't have a basic grip on the English language nor economics. However what it does show is that the standard of Business journalism in this country is terrible. They love to write a headline about gender imbalance or how work form home is more efficient (apparently), yet when a ASX company is out there basically denying fundamental economic theory they are silent. The REX chairman had a long form article written about him last year in the AFR and the only criticism that the author could make was about gender imbalance in the board and paint him as a bit of a old fashioned chauvinist.

Any economist in the world will tell you that the resaon is there is a Labour Supply problem at REX is because they don't pay enough. Up the salary and the problem will fix it self. It is very simple. Adam Smith wasn't an idiot. However these people who seem to be all "free market" are really not that at all. It is very telling that when the market works against them or their ideology they suddenly want the government to do something about it.

Now if you can't afford to pay more then either you have to get creative (country basings anyone?) or your fundamental business model is flawed. If your entire business is built around under paying pilots whose license these days is worth over $150K then they have a big problem. Maybe REX will be the first to show us what a real pilot shortage will do your business and unlike the US Regionals there is no Chapter 11 Bankruptcy to hide behind.

I suspect that pilot numbers is amongst the lesser of their worries.

Crewing issues notwithstanding they managed to increase capacity by around 13.7 percent. Bums on seats increased by less than half a percent (that's the number of bums, not the size thereof). Rex's core business was losing just shy of $136,500 a day on low 70s load factors for the six months to 31 December 2023. If they're still planning on bringing on more capacity over the next few months they need to do something quickly about pax numbers/revenue.

I'll go back to what I was saying in a different thread about how you can tell whether your marketing is working or not; if it is not translating into pax numbers, and the transfer of cash from said pax to your coffers, then it is not working, no matter how "good" it looks or sounds.

Separately, while it is at the edges, you do have to wonder as to the mechanics of losing $2 million on $4.2 million worth of training revenue. Rex's FY23 results presentation talked up the "Influx of foreign cadets at the pilot academies" as a positive for FY24; that certainly did not play out over the first half.

Hopefully they can pull in another $100m from somewhere to keep the show going

Who writes Rex's media releases? That whole thing reads like it should have been in quotation marks.ie a rant from a member of management, rather than a statement to the public/industry interspersed with a couple of quotes. Did they have an essay writing competition down at the local high school, or does someone at Rex Corp Relations not know where quotation marks start and finish?

REX's investor presentation is amazingly amateurish It looks like it was put together by someone who was using PowerPoint for the first time.

Their performance is disastrous. YoY, they increased from 7 to 9 737s (a 28% increase) but only managed to increase RPT revenues by 6% which has led to the $25M loss in RPT services as highlighted by Mick. In addition, their cheap as chips lease deals they got their first 737s are now all expiring and they are being forced to pay market rates, which, for a small tenuous operation like REX, will be more than lessors will agree to with the bigger more secure operators.

The Nationals aren't in power so I'm not sure where it's going to come from.

Are you forgetting that they cut back a lot of SAAB flying as well which explains just a small increase in RPT revenues