Will you ever go back to Aviation?
 

Hi all,
So, like many, I lost my dream job, though was only newly checked to line and still very few hours on my jet type, now I'm looking at trying to get back into GA eventually or even for an airline again- anywhere in the world- but with all these super experienced people out of work, what are those of you thought's on people going back into the business? (Personally I would think that many of the older heads may leave to not come back??) The foreseeable future- and how things are going to be when the new normal will be up and running? ie; no social distancing etc...

Not looking to start fights or anything, but just throwing it out there??

Personal opinion only, not based on any research, just gut feel:

Pilots over age 60 who do not have seniority-protected status mostly won't get back into the game for various reasons.
1. They don't want the hassle of all the revalidation training and checks that will be required
2. Some (not all), who have been hanging on at minimum standard anyway, simply won't make the grade
3. They have found that they rather like golf five days a week, tinkering with old cars, sailing, playing with the grandchildren
4. Those who in the past have rolled over and only kept flying to pay off multiple ex-wives will say "enough" to the lawyers and simply default on their alimony
]5. Recognition of dwindling years remaining to complete bucket list items will motivate some to take off to wherever the above-mentioned lawyers can't touch them anyway (I am told one can live well and cheaply in Costa Rica)

At the other end of the experience/age spectrum: for a low-hour 'newbie' it is certainly not rosy in the short to mid term, with so many experienced pilots available who will crawl over broken glass and sell their mother-in-law as a sex slave for an airline flying job. This won't be lost on airline managements who will exploit it to the max. At what point will airline recruitment and conditions start to favor low time pilots? It seems no one really knows - guesstimates seem to vary from no less than two years to five or more years.

I always recommend that a pilot determined to remain in the game during any downturn must be prepared to fall back on any G.A. job going, as current experience wins over someone with two or three years of sitting on the beach hoping for a gig. The worse the location (forget that nice city or coastal resort town), the older the equipment (40 year old clunkers rock), the tougher the employer (the tough ones in GA tend to remain in business), the better your chances of a job.

Good luck, don't give up just yet!

Just gut feel....you’re not over 60.

I wish that were the case....!
I know one sad individual aged 60-something who was not protected by seniority. He has not flown for some time, yet he fantasises that his flying days are not over. Unless he can afford his own private aircraft, they are.
I know another of similar age who would be highly unlikely to pass his next check ride, should one ever be offered. He simply can’t accept that he was in decline before being stood down. A year on the beach will be great for his blood pressure but won’t do much for his flying skills. He would be wise to avoid humiliation by going gracefully.
Elsewhere in these forums is much vitriol between millennials and boomers, which the O.P. isn’t seeking to ignite here, so let’s leave that one out of it and perhaps debate a newbie’ s options in these uncertain times.
Now, how soon can I travel to Costa Rica?

A 35 year old Captain is likely to be in the best position when it comes to reemployment, he would have a reasonable level of experience, still be sharp and keen and have 30 years of work ahead of him. It will be difficult to justify spending a large sum of money on someone who's 60+ and likely to retire in a few years time. After the cherries have been picked it will come down to age/experience/currency as companies will be looking to get the most from a pilot whilst spending the least on him.

Basically younger pilots on or above the experience graph whose last flight wasn't too long ago will be first in line. Those without too many years left who haven't flown for so long that their ratings have lapsed will be last in line. Newbies may have a bit of a wait ahead of them but time is on their side, remaining current as far as possible and being ready jump at the first chance they get are the keys to getting back in the door.

I knew a pilot who waited nine years for his first job and went on to become Chief Pilot with a major company.

Indications are that RAA/SAAA aircraft kit and associated equipment orders are way up in the last few months. The alleged buyers are older airline pilots who figure that they will not be returning to airline flying. They are finishing existing projects or starting new ones.

Those smart enough in the early years had other skills behind them, that corny old saying always applies sometime in ones life.....never put all your eggs in one basket.....good advice for the youngins' getting into the uncertainty of commercial flying!
As for the original question? Well a little revolution can be a healthy thing sometines-)

With dark clouds brewing on the northern horizon, anyone young enough and with the skills and required education who really wants to fly should be applying to the Air Force. I’m sure they must be or soon will be recruiting intensively.

Why?

Air Force has just had a load of airline guys flood back into the service, along with the overall realisation amongst the pilot workforce that leaving to fly anywhere else other than a few niche roles is a fruitless endevour. The RAAF will no doubt keep recruiting at the exact same pace it always has, knowing that retention of it's people is likely to be at record levels for the next 3-5 years at least. Regardless of whats happening in the Pacific, there are enough pilots to put on all the seats of the RAAF's fleet. For a recruiting expansion there would have to be a fleet expansion, and that isn't going to happen anytime soon.

Yep, can confirm.

I know for myself and a large number of my fellow Australian pilots who have been made redundant or likely to be in the near future, regardless of if we want to believe it, the pointy end of a jet just probably won’t happen for a very long time in Australia and most parts of the world for us and some, maybe never.

There are far too many highly qualified guys willing to do anything to get back in as previously pointed out and the demand just is not going to be there for everyone to do so.

Yes its terrible. But gotta face facts. A few hundred or even a few thousand hours in a 320 or 737 right seat isn’t going to mean anything at all when you consider how many guys will be on the market with a lot more from all over the world, not just down unda.

Thankfully, there’s more to aviation than the airlines.

I agree that there will be no real change in the amount of people recruited. However, I would imagine that for those in their mid to early 20's the RAAF will have become much more attractive. Perhaps the RAAF will see a higher quality candidate walk through the door? Nothing like a good crisis to turn people to the military for job security!

There is more to life than aviation. The reality is that a lot of pilots will probably never get re-employed as a pilot again, which I assume is going to effect all age groups and experience levels.

Couple this with the fact that some operators will use this crisis as a catalyst to degrade salaries and conditions.

There are still quite a few pilots out there who have been stood down who are in denial of reality, based on the regular correspondence I’m getting from some of my colleagues.

Solution is the look beyond aviation, diversify and up skill if required. Also probably requires a bit of thinking outside of the square for some.

Agree with just about everything you've said Duck.

However, make no mistake. Once the first operator exploits this situation and lowers the bar for T&Cs, others and eventually all will follow. They'll have to in order to remain competitive.

i was actually in an EBA meeting just last week when the pilots' Log of Claims was tabled and the management chuffed and stated something along the lines of well you haven't seen ours yet and and I think you'll need a reality check very shortly!

Effectivley share markets around the world are down around 25%-30% and some so called "property experts" are predicting property values will head south @ 25%.

My gut feel is that salaries will follow and take @ 25% hit as well. It's all about supply versus demand, and there's not going to be any supply shortage any time soon, let alone much of a demand!

Just my two bobs worth of course.

Look after yourselves and fellow colleagues.

I dont believe there will a material change to terms and conditions (certainly at the bigger end of town). I dont remeber seeing any significant improvements to T&Cs directly attributed to a pilot shortage in the past, so unless pilots buckle under threat I dont see an adverse change now.

The quality of the new hire will improve, and all that really seems to happen in more prosperous times is that anyone with the ever reducing requirements seems to get a job.

A minority will find lucrative opportunities outside of aviation, but most will given a realization of how good they had it in aviation despite the many drawbacks.

There's a few trainee train driver's jobs going round the country at the moment. :} Warwick, Mackay, Albany & Wagin, Adelaide, and Sydney Trains has been recruiting for trainee suburban guys too!

Slezy9. Interesting comment on "higher quality candidate". I can only take it that your inferring that higher quality aviation applicants go commercial.

[QUOTE=Lapon;10797958]I dont believe there will a material change to terms and conditions (certainly at the bigger end of town). I dont remeber seeing any significant improvements to T&Cs directly attributed to a pilot shortage in the past, so unless pilots buckle under threat I dont see an adverse

Maybe not in OZ but expat around the world have taken hits to terms and conditions. China, the Pacific, UAE to name a few all getting BELTED and it’s only the beginning.

Not at all. Over the past 20 years the RAAF has seen a steady decline in applicants. The reduced numbers in through the door of recruiting would imply that there is just a smaller pool for the RAAF to choose from. A larger pool means more chance of higher quality applicants.

I think aviation in general has suffered over the past decades from a low level of interest. I think being a pilot is the best job out there, but it also has its downsides! I just wish I didn't love staring out the window so much!

I think there is a smaller percentage of young people these days willing to hand over control of their life for 11.5-14.5 years to the military. I can't blame them, with the options that were available only months ago within the industry, there were other avenues. People talk about HECS debt, but very few mention the burden of being told where to live, when to go on leave etc that comes with the military. Nothing is ever free!

I agree that the numbers have declined coming through the doors and that with a lower number the likelihood of having quality candidates reduces but is maintained via entry requirements. But the RAAF have attempted to address this by changing the requirements for entry. This allows more applicants to progress to the selection process but whether this will translate to a greater graduation number of high quality candidates remains to be seen.

Yes general aviation has suffered but not over the last decade but more likely over the last three decades. I do not think you will find many if any that would argue that todays commercial career bears no resemblance
to pre 1990's commercial career.Unfortunately world events have conspired to make the attraction of a career as a commercial pilot, well not attractive. The lack of experienced pilots was becoming an issue when 911 occurred. Than SARS etc. I know there has been oddles of advice given to those looking at a career in aviation mainly revolving around have a backup and good luck. I agree.

Hmm, yes, no, maybe. We certainly have a more transient career population but also most professionals do not change career paths (do know a few who have but they generally having to many of those stray neurons upstairs). This has been highlighted for the last 20 + years and attempted to be addressed with a varying ROSO. Most people join the military for a career with the option or plan to move to commercial. In regards to the options that were available a few months ago in the commercial area I would argue that the military has changed, for the better, to what it was a decade plus ago ( as I would point out the commercial life is nothing to what it was 20 plus years ago). If you are flying for a commercial organisation where to live may well, and certainly is for juniors, not an option. Leave in the military has been recognised as a requirement and your superior that denies a leave app needs a very good reason.

I guess it all comes back to the individual and what they find attractive for career.

Given the very low numbers that actually pass every year and the disproportionate number of applicants compared to the pass rate, is there ever really going to be an issue for the RAAF? One thing they could change would be the failure rate. In reality if you get through the RAAF selection you should have close to 95% pass rate once on course.

It could also be just a way of dealing with some heat they have copped over recent years about their lack of "diversity" in pilot ranks.

NN, the "disproportionate number of applicants compared to the pass rate" is an arguable statement. How many apply and have no chance of making it through the first stage of recruiting due to a myriad of reasons ranging from medical to educational is not a valid comparison of the pass rate. What is a low pass rate? The RAAF has been around the 60% pass rate for years and with the new selection and training system planning to increase that percentage.

NN you are so right. In the perfect world the selection process would be perfect and to a large extent is fairly accurate with who has a high chance of passing and who is a risk and fails. Yes there are the surprises both ways where an apparent very good applicant falls by the wayside. A lot of that can be attributed to external factors that are beyond the control of not only the selection process but the individual. The same as the applicants that appears a risk but worth a go and ends up duxing the course. The latter is far less common. The new selection process is likely to improve the pass rate.

Your "diversity" comment has some merit but also has been in the system for some time with the IMPS being fairly constant apart for attracting the diversity numbers.

I feel at a loss.... I just finished my studies here in Adelaide and I'm in debt of around $140,000. All of us in the group are in so much debt and with no prospects. I think I have made a big mistake in my decision honestly.

You spent 140k on a CPL/IR????

Plenty of jobs out there for a fresh CPL Graduate, like just about every other pilot has done in the past you need to go looking for them. Head North and have fun! Wasn’t there a company in Shark Bay looking for an admin assistant?

At least there's a bit more reality in this thread than there is over in the QF Group thread. Age 55 is the magic number in the workforce generally, if you find yourself unemployed without a very specific niche skillset.

that admin role....I heard first hand they had 400 applications.

Unfortunately universities and flying schoolS have been telling pork pies to potential students for years. All the flashy beat ups about estimate pilot number that will be needed etc.
i even seen a Qld university advertising they have both an a320 and a 737 sim...WHAT THE HELL WOULD THEY NEED THAT FOR?

There are still jobs out there...but these next few years will be the most competitive it’s ever been...not just with added students with fresh cpls...but guys who were further up the ladder having to come back down...and operators taking full advantage of that.

Goodluck to all...and if you do get that “crap c210 job based out of Arnhem Land”...it will be the most fun you’ll ever have in a plane :)

Pack the car and head north mate. I can think of at least 10 companies off the top of my head you’d be able to talk to before you hit Darwin

Don’t despair. In the long run your qualifications will come in useful.

Pandemics pass, this one will too, recessions pass, as will this one. I would say 2-3 years.

Aviation will still boom worldwide over the next 20 years. Boeing still estimates we’ll need another 600,000 airline pilots worldwide in the next two decades, half in the Asia Pacific, our region. In some parts of the world aviation is almost back at pre Covid levels today.

The youngest of the Baby boomer generation, born 1945-65, are now at age 55. So that means they’ll be retiring over the next 5-10 years. I’ve seen pilot age and retirement data from airlines and there is a big chunk set to go over the next 5-10 years in line with predictions. They’ll need to be replaced somehow. There is a reason airlines are continuing to invest in and recruit for pilot academies. They’re thinking 2030, not 2020.

For perspective I’ll assume you’re about 21, as are your classmates. In 4 decades retirement age will probably be around 70. That’s 50 years of working life. This current recession will take up 5% of the total length of your career. A tiny minority. It’s only because this is all you’ve seen in your time in professional aviation it will lead you to believe this is how it will be all the time. It won’t. In a 50 year career you’ll probably see at least two other downturns like this. Every other downturn in history passed, as will this.

You may need to do other things for a year or two, but keep your hand in aviation, keep current, network etc. You’ll be in a good spot especially if upon return to the norm a lot of the baby boomer generation have taken early retirement and some students planning to commence professional pilot training in the next 12 months decide not to, leaving a supply issue you can take advantage of.

Spot on Dr Dre

Feel for all you guys, it's going to be a long way back to anything normal if at all. Like a lot of others from my era we are all retired and a myriad of things have changed in Aviation since our day. You now have to deal with something no one saw coming COVID - 19 :\
We were lucky we only had to deal with an ars........le Prime Minister who saw us as Bus Drivers so we went driving Taxi's, Buses and took Labouring Jobs whilst awaiting placement anywhere in the World. That is obviously not on this time and getting any job not necessarily in Aviation is a priority - :(:(
:{:{:{

It’s not true that you have no prospects.
 

G’day Chris,

It’s ok to be “at a loss” in these crazy times. I can understand the feeling, but don’t go talking yourself down or buy into the gloom, doom and hysteria that is everywhere today. If you follow that path then you likely won’t be in a position to jump at opportunities when they finally do open up.

Yes, times have changed and you’ve got a big debt, but you do have prospects and something to look forward to.

You’ve got age on your side, health and proven skills/abilities. It may be that you don’t end up flying for a while - that’s disappointing, but not the end of the world. I suggest you prioritise your health/fitness and an income that is not flying to knock that debt over. Make it a challenge. You are not defined by being a pilot. Keep your finger on the aviation pulse but get comfortable hitting the pause button on your log book. Life is good. Don’t forget it.

All the best.

pithblot

FWIW
Will I ever go back to aviation? Yeah/nah. I’m pretty happy to rule a line under my last log book entry in March after 42 years in the game. I’ve had a great time, lots of ups and downs so-to-speak. It’s been the best job in the world and the worst career. But flying being what flying is, someone might just wheel out a PC24 for me to play with; or a DC3, or a glider. So I’ll rule the log book line in pencil, just for the moment :)

The B200 does nicely so long as it's all glass and has all the goodies in it :)

Agreed.
I wouldn’t want to sound selfish :)

We are old and retired, be as selfish as you like :) I'm not even embarrassed by it anymore.

In my day positions like that wouldn’t have needed to advertise! I would have been working at the pub waiting for a job like that to come up!

Hi mate, I feel for you and many others just starting out. But you have not made a big mistake.

You made a decision on the best info you had at the time and no doubt chose aviation because you love flying.

This will turn around, the hard bit to process is “when?” The day it does though, you will look at your job and say I am glad I chose something I enjoy.

Good luck, and as others say, chase a job even if it means moving somewhere else for a while.