I can understand why some newcomers to the profession are feeling gloomy, as well of course as those colleagues who have lost their jobs or been stood down. A personal view (and I am standing by to be flamed) is that, at least in some cases, companies are being opportunistic and "not wasting a crisis" by aggressively repositioning their workforces for the recovery.

Let's look at some underpinning facts. For the last several years a world pilot shortage has been brewing. In July last year, both Airbus and Boeing agreed that the world needed three-quarters of a million pilots over the next 20 years https://www.boeing.com/commercial/ma...ician-outlook/ These are not just figures from the OEMs. Every airline in the world (including Australia) was recruiting hard, with many introducing subsidised ab-initio cadet programs. The potential shortage was acknowledged by initiatives from ICAO and IATA.

Let's assume that it may take 2 or 3 or even 4 years for a vaccine to be found, administered, and for people to start traveling again. (I haven't seen any predictions/estimates of longer than this, although I do agree that its guess-work). In any case, whenever a vaccine is found and distributed, people will start flying again - why wouldn't they? Assuming that things only recover to 2/3 of the 2019 figures that still means half a million new pilots, needed plus the extras from those who have retired or decided to give it away. Like an earlier poster, I agree that numbers of the older demographic (of which I am one) may well be considering giving it away earlier than originally planned.

I don't buy into the "Drones will take over / airliners will have single-pilot operations by then" and other such rhetoric being spread by doom and gloom merchants. Maybe in the distant future, but not in my lifetime. I am predicting that the pilot shortage will come back with a vengeance. Having said this, I appreciate that pilots are very big into uncertainty avoidance and not having a fixed date for the bounce back is very stressful.

I believe that the unions and associations have a difficult path to tread, with conflicts between accepting expedient measures for short-term job protection sometimes conflicting with longer-term thinking to protect the profession. Just bear in mind that the airlines are positioning themselves for the future.

In summary, "Steady team, steady"! Everything will be OK.

Be Safe
PJ88

I am new here so I want to say thanks so much for the encouragement! I was reluctant to sign up to pprune because I've heard it gets really nasty... but came here to share my little story and so thank you to everyone!

I did everything (airline integrated)... so the more expensive route... and as mentioned earlier, regretting it slightly as I don't know how to pay it back.

Things will come good again. It won't be as it was before for a while - but as it ramps up again, 15-20% of the workforce won't be there (if a flying career is 40 years, many over over 57 now probably won't fly again, and add into it those younger who leave the industry and don't bother coming back.). Maybe in fact more.

Late last year, the pilot shortage was really bad. Companies were struggling to find applicants for all levels - jets and turboprops and pistons.

When it picks up again, the shortage will be worse.

If it's your dream, hang in there lad. Get something to tide you over for now, keep the car boot packed and be ready to bolt at the first whiff of something.

G'day Chrismonson85, welcome to the wonderful reality that is aviation. You've just learnt the most valuable life lesson. Reality is very different to the sales pitch. Don't worry, we have all been there.
Right now, you're justifiably worried about paying off this humungous debt and staying current. There's several ways to play this. Find any job you can and approach the bank with a repayment plan. Forget about keeping things current until this sh!tshow settles down. That's an option.

You could research the heck out of GA "up north" and work on getting the various tickets, such as Dangerous Goods, First Aid, small bus drivers lic. I doubt you'll be traveling at the moment if I've understood Australia's lock down properly? (I'm in the UK - now that's a mess. Fortunately the private jet side of aviation is absolutely booming - busier than we were last year.)
Unless you land a nice airline job first up, you'll be flying piston aircraft. So, see if you can find an Maintenance organisation that'll let you learn how to change the oil, change spark plugs, change the tyres etc.

Can you find a job in an FBO? (Fixed Base Operator). I am not sure how the business jet market is in Oz, could be worth a look.

Bottom line is you need to keep yourself occupied adding strings to your bow that won't cost you much. Any job will keep some money coming in and the bank off your back. Hopefully, showing some initiative now will help you nail the future interview.

Good luck

Don't worry about it mate. I did the same thing. Fee Help / University degree (which actually funnily enough has probably helped me out a bit in more recent times)

Government student loans are the most forgiving thing you can get:
- No affect to your credit score or ability to buy a house, car, etc.
- Interest pretty much just pegged to inflation.
- No consequences for your family if anything happens to you, and no consequences to you if you never get to pay it off.

I did exactly the same thing in 2009. Would have I worked and paid my way through flight training having known what I do now? Probably.

I also had the opportunity to take a similar loan from a family member. I'm so glad I didn't do that. The pressure to pay it back would have completely stifled my career. You made the best decision with the knowledge you had available.

At the time I rationalised the premium as being the best way to keep age on my side and to get all of my licences done asap. I'm still thankful for that, and the timeline it set me on is still worth it in my opinion.

My only real suggestion with the debt would be to do your best to keep it where it is. Even though it's indexed at a low number, it can run away from you if you ignore it's existence for a few years, as I did. You might just scrape in at the repayment threshold every year, but if you make a plan to keep it where it is with extra voluntary repayments, you'll thank yourself for it later on.

Now I live in the USA and am extremely lucky to still have a job which will help me to make a good dint my student loans next year.

There are so many things with this pandemic that are unknown. It has the potential to create a downturn in the aviation industry for many years, but it also has the potential to exacerbate the pilot shortage to numbers you never even thought of, if the recovery happens quickly enough. A lot of airlines still have orders on the books and will be forced to expand over the next 5 years or so.

In the mean time, as soon as you're allowed, grab car and go for a drive to Darwin and WA. You never know what opportunities might pop up for you. Also keep on the lookout for jobs like survey operator, loader driver, or anything else that directly supports the operation of an aircraft. Lastly don't be afraid to go overseas to further your career. The US definitely has a lot of problems, but its still host to the greatest aviation industry on the planet. If you're interested in taking that route, at the very least you could apply for the green card lottery every October and see if you get lucky with a selection combined with a low case number.

I started training the month after Sept 11, 2001 and the outlook then was extremely bleak. Jobs were few and far between and I ended up doing the drive up north that so many recommend - luckily getting my first job within a month or so.

I’m now also working overseas, was affected by the 2008 downturn and currently trying to hang on to a job due Coronavirus. Like the above poster I highly recommend flying in the USA, at the very least it will help you advance your career to become more competitive for a job back home.

Its an industry like no other but what it shares in common with other occupations is that you really need drive to succeed. You may get lucky with timing but at some point you’ll need some inner grit to stay the course.

I do see that happening in the next 20 years. The Co-pilot seat removed and replaced by a fully robotic AI, connected to all of the Aircraft systems and external surveillance systems. Fully Autonomous, fully situationally aware. The Captain in his/her seat will be the only human on the flight deck.

I empathise with how you’re feeling right now - having spent a huge sum on getting your CPL, with little or no prospect of employment upon completion of the course. I have been in your shoes before, spending a huge fortune only to end up in a period of financial crisis with no opportunities for employment.

I am sure you (and most people) would have considered the possibility of not being able to find jobs after getting the licence before starting the course, but it hits real hard and it is a hard slap in the face when you’re truly in this situation facing reality. I had to go through a long period working in other jobs and the wait for a flying job without certainty was frankly, hard to deal with.

No one could foresee this pandemic coming, you’ve made the decision there and then with the best information you had. It’s not a mistake.

Do not give up.

I went through it too, at the very beginning for exactly the same reason and then 3 more times while I was in it. It's an industry hazard, one which I don't miss one little bit and the very reason I diversified into other areas. That ended up taking more of my time and making more money. It is the main reason I retired early. I didn't give up flying though, just for my own purposes (business) these days, to the retirees if you fly on other than in recreational aircraft, make sure it's tax deductable.

More negativity from the master himself. Just like NSW will fall by Xmas, robots will replace us.

My Tip, Xeptu, there will still be 2 pilots in the cockpit in 20 years. Feel free to correct me then if I’m wrong.

As there are no new commercial airliners being developed with 2 pilots let alone single pilot I can't see an autonomous airliner being in service much before 2080 in which case the OP will be a retired airline pilot.

Well they managed without a flight engineer and a navigator, why can't they manage without a human first officer, whats wrong with a robot, that doesn't get tired, never leaves the flight deck, is fully situationally aware continuously and doesn't cost $100,000 per year, seems perfectly sensible to me. I don't see the travelling public will accept no humans at all up the front

I have no doubt it will happen at some stage mate, but not in twenty years IMO.

Seriously though, you bring lots of negativity to all of these forums.

You have mentioned numerous times you are in a much better life position than most of us average airline drivers with our few qualifications outside, and I believe you.

Best thing for you to do is stop essentially telling us how bleak our future is with robot and COVID threats.

I know you are probably just after a “bite” from people just like me, but I couldn’t let this go after we just tried to tell an up and coming aviator new to PPRUNE that there is hope ahead.

Enjoy flying your King Air 200 in the flight levels (I’m actually envious) and voting for your Premier keeping the borders closed until a vaccine is here, but please give PPRUNE a rest if it’s all about telling us to make a career change because you had to.

Well you did have the audacity of telling me I'm old and out of touch I think you said. This is a public forum, for news and rumour, If you or anyone else has a personal problem with what's posted here, interpretation, opinion or otherwise, then it is you who should consider, giving it a rest. You take care.

Xeptu,

Do us all a favour and get off pprune, jump in your caravan and head north with the rest of the Sandgroper Grey Nomads. Find the nearest caravan park where you can sit around the camp fire and circle jerk over what a fantastic job McMoron is doing.

The rest of us will then carry on with finding some positivity, and encourage each other out of this mess so we can hopefully resurrect our careers.

My biggest advice to anyone who has a fresh CPL , if you want a long lasting and prosperous career in Aviation. Seek flying jobs OVERSEAS. I left Australia with about 400hrs , scored single piston day VFR charter job. Got my hours , then got a job flying airliners in the U.S. straight from piston to Jet.

opportunities like that do not and will not exist in Australia unless you become a cadet. Myself as well as thousands of other Australians are flying all over the world Asia, Africa , U.S ....the aviation industry in Australia is its own worst enemy. Take a leap of faith , I did 4 years ago n haven’t looked back 👍

Leaving Australia with only a few hundred hours means your only employment options are one operator in lndonesia or maybe a job flying tourists around Southern Africa.

Even pre covid the USA was the only place an Australian could walk into a jet job with no previous jet time. You still needed ATP mins. Whilst it is possible to do what you did, you were very lucky and it's not a common outcome.

+1

Best career move I ever made and that was 35 years ago. Despite not being a religious person, but the word blessed is the only one to properly describe my career after leaving Oz. If I can do it, anyone can.

Although for the next couple of years everyone will have to accept that there will be zero opportunities overseas. Eventually, as sure as day follows night, they will return.

Occupy the next few years with care. Add value to yourselves.

I've always seen myself as a bit of a visionary since Dick Tracy's watch, you young blokes might need to look that one up.

I watched Neil, Buzz and Mike fly to the moon. Ten years later I was flying myself. I've seen The INS, VLF Omega, IRS, VOR and DME replace the Navigator. I've seen the auto throttle replace the flight engineer. I've seen propellors become turbo jet, become fan jet and four engines become two. Analog become digital, the dark cockpit, the glass cockpit, the FMS, the GPS, the TAWS the TCAS and ADS. The 33k dialup modem, become broadband become fibre, from cable to wireless. The first mobile phone become digital, become smart, home phones and public phones fade away. I've used the first pc, laptop and tablet. DOS, visual basic, C+ C++ and HTML5. I've seen automation and robotics do things so tiny and precisely that humans cannot. I've seen recession, mergers, collapse and emergers.

Most of those things we had barely heard of before we were learning and using them. Most of those changes occurred in the last 30 years, evolving ever more quickly. I think I've seen my fair share of change and adapted quite well Thanks.

So just in case I missed anything, if you wouldn't mind updating the last 5 years and if you feel so inclined your expectation in the next 20 years.

Propjet88 is on it, post 41, good post.

Whilst it is technically possible I think the development, certification, insurance costs are going to make it uneconomical for now. Additional to that it is actually riskier to start experimenting with automation as the current system of two pilots with a computer system is already very safe. Single Pilot with a computer is actually a higher risk proposition.

And I agree with you "For Now" but in 20 years, that's a long time in our rapidly evolving world.

Interesting because he actually contradicts what you state:

The only real technological advance in the last 20 years has been the use of carbon fibre in the manufacturing of airframes and thats by only one manufacturer. As far as I am aware an autoland can still only be conducted in what would best be described as benign conditions.

Umm! really!!!, where have you been ???

Flying 737s and A320s. Updates to technology is not the same as new technology. There are more checks and cross checks required before an RNP approach than there are for an ILS. So why is the 2nd pilot not required?

I didn't say "not required" I said replaced by an AI, The vision, A self contained, fully independent, totally situationally aware, fixed installation robot, so good you can't tell the difference from a real first officer performance wise.

You also said in the next 20 years. Technology hasn't advanced that much in the last 20 so I can't see your version of a pig with lipstick coming to fruition. Even less likely as the manufacturers will be concentrating on building more of the same 20th century aircraft to make up for their losses. There will be no incentive to spend billions to replace something costing them thousands.

Well it's all academic then, personally I don't think progress will just stop, in fact after every crisis there has been a burst in development or change, hence the term "never waste a good crisis" I'm optimistic for the future, it would be nice to have a crystal ball and know in advance what that's going to be and how it will look.There's gains to be made if you can predict it right and get in early enough.

Pig with lipstick...thanks mate, gave me a good laugh and I happen to agree with you.

single pilot is dangerous unless you fit the robot with a crash axe.

Which is why the 737 is a 1960s jet with a 1990s computer strapped to it.

The A320 is a 1980s jet with a 1990s computer strapped To it.

The rest is just marketing.

The advancements in aerospace are in the materials and manufacturing. The actual interface is very basic. There is probably less computing power in an A350/B787 than an iPhone.

100% reliable two way data comms is the key. Once that holy grail has been attained, its all over for the 2 pilot cockpit. They can build autopilots with all kinds of sensors to guide the aircraft to land without a Cat 3 ILS. An early but crude adopter is https://discover.garmin.com/en-US/autonomi/

Think Tesla autopilots and how they manage in a complex, dynamic and constantly changing environment. Getting an aircraft from the gate at A to the gate at B is computational child's play in comparison.

When 2 way data comms reach that 100% reliability stage pilots will be replaced by former call centre operators in Mumbai who will each be managing dozens of aircraft simultaneously. Scary, hey?
CPDLC is the Trojan Horse. Indeed, its all very cool not having to use the HF but it's now technically possible for ATC to issue commands directly to the autopilot and only a question of when they will be allowed that capability.

The major obstacle will be marketing this new pilot-less, airline manager's wet dream to the general public. Price is their only consideration. Low enough and people will fly in anything - just look at the LCC's stooging around the skies of our northern neighbours - all packed to the gunwales with price conscious punters.

I think not, it has to be more than a glorified autopilot, it has to be better than human, updated yes but self contained, so well that from a captains perspective is flying with the same first officer every time, even though it's a different unit. It must learn human individual uniqueness, remember every conversation. It doesn't need to walk or leave the flight deck, just be able to operate the rudder and brakes along with two hands. It must see everything, know everything, understand and respond to verbal conversation. external input in flight is ideal but not essential. Then we are in the zone, but only the first officer and I wouldn't expect to see that in a commercial airliner for at least 20 years, but I'm sure it will happen.

As soon as you said 100%, I stopped reading....
Ain't no such thing...

“As soon as you said 100%, I stopped reading....
Ain't no such thing...”

Agreed. Poor choice of words on my part. It was just simpler and less pedantic than saying a probability of failure that would be low enough to assuage the fears of the travelling public. Nevertheless, I’m sure most got my drift no matter how inexpertly I may have worded it.

But anyone who rejects the idea that crews of aircraft which operate between major city airports can’t eventually be replaced by automation is just being hopeful. It’s coming, the capability is very nearly here, the only question is when.

And which manufacturer is going to design,test then mass produce this aircraft within a reasonable time frame and budget? Then tell us all why they will do that when the worlds airlines are still happy to buy designs that are 40-60 years old?

Well that's the best part, an AI doesn't need to be tested in a real aircraft, a simulator will do nicely. The development of an AI is a stand alone project, it just needs to be adapted to an aircraft/airline environment. It's not without it's challenges, in recent times and I'll hunt down the name of the AI project, when powered up it's very first action was to write it's own language at an alarming rate, no-one could understand or keep up with what it was doing, it took just 20 minutes before they pulled the plug. I guess that got moved underground into a faraday cage.

ipsoft.com/amelia

Go and meet Amelia and you'll sorta get the idea, imagine 20 years from now.

If AI is realised, just about every job in the entire world will be done by it, not just flying. So to all you sadists loving the demise of aviation, your employment will be confined to history too.

That's right, well for about half the workforce, that's why it's time to have the conversation about how we want to live when half of us are not employed because of robotics and automation.
How should our society look.

At some point it will need to be integrated, tested and certified into a real oxygen breathing aeroplane. Integrating different "systems" into something that needs to actually fly not just be simulated is a very difficult proposition. I'm thinking Kaman Seasprite and the RAN.