Post Covid19 Aviation
 

I am a realist, as I'm sure many of you are. What can we expect when all this is over? Some have reason to believe there will be no more flying for the VA A330s, QF 747s/A380s and some are even speculating that Project Sunrise will be expedited and could be flying as early as late next year.

Who knows. However I think it is safe to assume that some of us won't be invited back when this is over. Irrespective of where you work: Oz, Asia, ME, grounding fleets for such a period of time is going to have consequences.

Best wishes to all, but it would pay to have a plan b in the back of your mind just in case.

The restoration of international flying is going to take some time, especially to the US. I cannot even imagine what a recovery looks like domestically after everyone is broke or behind a year in their repayments. Uncharted waters.

On the other hand, its not too farfetched to imagine a return to regulated fares and protectionism. I would be very surprised if any ME carrier ever has more than one or two services a day to Oz. The government is going to have to abandon its free market ideology in order to restore local jobs ( and crucially, the local tax base)

One world
 

There will probably be 20 major airlines worldwide. Qantas will be one of them. None of them will be in good financial standing initially, but that will change as they rebuild. Smaller players, regionals airlines, charter and GA will be gone, all of it. Freight operators will slowly grow.

This event has and will change society collectively. Don’t be surprised if in a few months time the World emerges from this with almost all terrorism eliminated, church doors never to be allowed to open again and we have a cashless society now using a global digital currency. Realestate as you currently know it will crash back to earth and they will ban the private use of Gold as currency or trade. Governments will retain the special emergency powers they have implemented and we will be watched and monitored in everything we do. Governments will capitalise on this crisis to do things they have never done before and none of the plebs will fight it.

Wow! That made me feel better. Cheers for that.

Don’t intentionally want to depress you, but people who understand the machinery of Government and understand how high level international agendas work can see that this crisis is much bigger than just a disease outbreak. The actions Governments are taking worldwide is unprecedented and far outweighs the risks. They will use this crisis to bring about plans and agendas years in the making.

Aviation as we know it will change substantially. At the top end of the industry the days of the Quad jet are done, maybe on a few select routes but the worldwide pax volume will not return anywhere as quickly as most people here hope and as the 787/350 have demonstrated lower volume point to point is the new norm and the 77W will be the big boy in town. Oil prices will see the NG & CEO stay for a longer time than NEO & MAX (cough cough) would have liked, airframe residual prices will falter as demand will be much weaker.
With a more focused view on Aus, TT's days are numbered but JQ will return with LR & XLR picking up quite a bit with their lower cost base and the punters in saving mode. The QF group 65% line in the sand total market share will be challenged, VA will become a leaner beast. VARA, Network & QQ will fight it out for world Fokker domination as the fuel price remains low until they can no longer sustain spares support and then cheap as E170/E190 will take over.
A lot of the old salts will actually enjoy LWOP and say bugger it and take up residence at the holiday house, go fishing in their tinny on the goldy or die worrying about the share price of their portfolio... but all three of those options will be much better than EA10 and 22hr TOD in a "sunrise special A350".
Personally having survived the last 30 years in aviation this is the flush the toilet needed and whatever comes back will not be as big as before, management will chase yield, volume wont exist because there are too many punters that are scared enough to buy too much bog roll and every freezer in the metro area.
Cash is king right now and if your like me and out of a job, enjoy it, the sun will still come up. Fix up the pushy and go for a ride just not to the pub and watch the footy 'cause that pleasure palace is gooooone to.

Very well said and I agree entirely

The way St Kilda's started the season, probably not a bad thing!!!

I think you've got the ME market a little wrong. For traffic to/from Australia and NZ the ME acts as an incredible hub from mainland Europe as well as Africa. They can consolidate passengers from regions with 100's of millions population.

However, having multiple carriers in close proximity (e.g. Emirates, Etihad, Qatar) dilutes that potential market. I can see the first two merging, but they will still serve multiple cities between them, and they will still sardine backpackers into A380's

Just to be clear, do you believe that the lunar landing was real?

Given Cahills Crossing has been blocked with boulders and all remote communities shut QLD, NT & WA - charter and GA will continue in the top end states and territory.

Mustering shall continue - aviation is still essential in the regional areas.

And I imagine that the RFDS and other aeromed operations wont be drying up anytime soon.

I understand the crossroads model pretty well because its pretty basic. I was speaking to the end of open skies and a return to a more protectionist model. Ie: local traffic with limited beyond rights. Its going to be a different, much poorer world. Expect to see some old fashioned remedies.

Are you that ignorant that you believe everything will return to normal and the Government(s) won’t retain some of the draconian laws that they have rushed through and sneaking through as we speak? You are not aware of Western Governments reducing large cash denominations over the past few years? You are not aware that it is now illegal to spend over $10k in cash without declaring it? You obviously believe there is no such thing as fractional currency and you believe that quantitative easing (printing money) eventually reduces debt and doesn’t create inflation? You certainly don’t believe that a cashless society is bad and you are happy that we will end up with only electronic money and transfers, all which can be tracked and monitored by big brother, just like with crypto currency? Printed on nothing and backed by nothing.

And no, not a conspiracy theorist. Happy to answer the lunar question - yes it was real. And no, I don’t believe Mossad was responsible for 9/11 either nor do I believe that Elvis is alive.

Can you name three of these "draconian new laws" passed in Australia? Other than the public health ones on isolation.

Clearly you didn't get the memo that the Illuminati are making their move ;-)

Too early to tell... But why not?
 

What the post-Covid aviation world looks like will depend heavily on how this crisis plays out over the next 6-18 months, or thereabouts. For example:

• is the outbreak largely controlled within 6 months, or does it linger
• is the death rate kept (relatively) low, which might limit the long-term impact on the public psyche - or is there a deep social change in mindsets about (among other things) being in close quarters on airplanes
• how deep is the economic harm, and how quick is the economic recovery - which will affect how quickly demand for travel picks back up, especially in premium classes, corporate travel and leisure travel (so most travel)
• how do the airlines fair, themselves - do they reduce fleet sizes during the shutdown, are they in a financially weak position coming out of it, how do key competitors come out of it etc.

But, I think there are a few things I'd be willing to bet on:

• demand between Australia and Asia (possibly excepting Japan) will be lower, for longer, due to perception that travel there is higher risk - that may be a problem for Qantas, which has been wanting to redeploy the A380s onto Asian routes for a while
• Qantas is going into this in a far stronger position than Virgin, and so will come out of it in a far stronger position - I'd expect Virgin to downsize aggressively (TT fleet, A330s etc) and to have limited capital to invest in 2021-23, which may allow Qantas to pick up market share and profits (Government assistance may affect this equation - it's becoming pretty clear that the Government wants to retain Virgin as a strong competitor)
• if there is a bias towards Australians travelling to Western countries (Europe, US) or Latin America/South Africa - that might boost Qantas' PS plans (provided that premium travel recovers enough to fill the large premium class sections)
• Qantas will hold onto the 747s until it can work out whether demand will pick up enough to fill the A380s.

I think some of the end games mooted in this thread are a bit OTT. I am fairly certain that confidence in flying will return pretty quickly. Right now it is very easy for people to think of a short-termist armageddon, but airlines do look at the longer term picture. People won't just stop travelling, especially with the cost base lowered even further. That said, clearly it'll take time to get up and running to full speed. In China, already you're seeing domestic traffic back up to 90% of previous levels so there's a glimmer of hope there already.

It's inevitable that some of those in the unfortunate position to be out of work right now (myself included) will not be asked back. In Europe we're seeing many airlines "not letting a good crisis go to waste", but it has been proven time and time again that the aviation industry is immensely resilient.

Whatever is left of the world's devistated economies after this history making event Aviation will take a huge hit!
It will be a brave new world, Aviation will continue on but it won't continue on for all!