Post Covid19 Aviation
 

I am a realist, as I'm sure many of you are. What can we expect when all this is over? Some have reason to believe there will be no more flying for the VA A330s, QF 747s/A380s and some are even speculating that Project Sunrise will be expedited and could be flying as early as late next year.

Who knows. However I think it is safe to assume that some of us won't be invited back when this is over. Irrespective of where you work: Oz, Asia, ME, grounding fleets for such a period of time is going to have consequences.

Best wishes to all, but it would pay to have a plan b in the back of your mind just in case.

The restoration of international flying is going to take some time, especially to the US. I cannot even imagine what a recovery looks like domestically after everyone is broke or behind a year in their repayments. Uncharted waters.

On the other hand, its not too farfetched to imagine a return to regulated fares and protectionism. I would be very surprised if any ME carrier ever has more than one or two services a day to Oz. The government is going to have to abandon its free market ideology in order to restore local jobs ( and crucially, the local tax base)

One world
 

There will probably be 20 major airlines worldwide. Qantas will be one of them. None of them will be in good financial standing initially, but that will change as they rebuild. Smaller players, regionals airlines, charter and GA will be gone, all of it. Freight operators will slowly grow.

This event has and will change society collectively. Don’t be surprised if in a few months time the World emerges from this with almost all terrorism eliminated, church doors never to be allowed to open again and we have a cashless society now using a global digital currency. Realestate as you currently know it will crash back to earth and they will ban the private use of Gold as currency or trade. Governments will retain the special emergency powers they have implemented and we will be watched and monitored in everything we do. Governments will capitalise on this crisis to do things they have never done before and none of the plebs will fight it.

Wow! That made me feel better. Cheers for that.

Don’t intentionally want to depress you, but people who understand the machinery of Government and understand how high level international agendas work can see that this crisis is much bigger than just a disease outbreak. The actions Governments are taking worldwide is unprecedented and far outweighs the risks. They will use this crisis to bring about plans and agendas years in the making.

Aviation as we know it will change substantially. At the top end of the industry the days of the Quad jet are done, maybe on a few select routes but the worldwide pax volume will not return anywhere as quickly as most people here hope and as the 787/350 have demonstrated lower volume point to point is the new norm and the 77W will be the big boy in town. Oil prices will see the NG & CEO stay for a longer time than NEO & MAX (cough cough) would have liked, airframe residual prices will falter as demand will be much weaker.
With a more focused view on Aus, TT's days are numbered but JQ will return with LR & XLR picking up quite a bit with their lower cost base and the punters in saving mode. The QF group 65% line in the sand total market share will be challenged, VA will become a leaner beast. VARA, Network & QQ will fight it out for world Fokker domination as the fuel price remains low until they can no longer sustain spares support and then cheap as E170/E190 will take over.
A lot of the old salts will actually enjoy LWOP and say bugger it and take up residence at the holiday house, go fishing in their tinny on the goldy or die worrying about the share price of their portfolio... but all three of those options will be much better than EA10 and 22hr TOD in a "sunrise special A350".
Personally having survived the last 30 years in aviation this is the flush the toilet needed and whatever comes back will not be as big as before, management will chase yield, volume wont exist because there are too many punters that are scared enough to buy too much bog roll and every freezer in the metro area.
Cash is king right now and if your like me and out of a job, enjoy it, the sun will still come up. Fix up the pushy and go for a ride just not to the pub and watch the footy 'cause that pleasure palace is gooooone to.

Very well said and I agree entirely

The way St Kilda's started the season, probably not a bad thing!!!

I think you've got the ME market a little wrong. For traffic to/from Australia and NZ the ME acts as an incredible hub from mainland Europe as well as Africa. They can consolidate passengers from regions with 100's of millions population.

However, having multiple carriers in close proximity (e.g. Emirates, Etihad, Qatar) dilutes that potential market. I can see the first two merging, but they will still serve multiple cities between them, and they will still sardine backpackers into A380's

Just to be clear, do you believe that the lunar landing was real?

Given Cahills Crossing has been blocked with boulders and all remote communities shut QLD, NT & WA - charter and GA will continue in the top end states and territory.

Mustering shall continue - aviation is still essential in the regional areas.

And I imagine that the RFDS and other aeromed operations wont be drying up anytime soon.

I understand the crossroads model pretty well because its pretty basic. I was speaking to the end of open skies and a return to a more protectionist model. Ie: local traffic with limited beyond rights. Its going to be a different, much poorer world. Expect to see some old fashioned remedies.

Are you that ignorant that you believe everything will return to normal and the Government(s) won’t retain some of the draconian laws that they have rushed through and sneaking through as we speak? You are not aware of Western Governments reducing large cash denominations over the past few years? You are not aware that it is now illegal to spend over $10k in cash without declaring it? You obviously believe there is no such thing as fractional currency and you believe that quantitative easing (printing money) eventually reduces debt and doesn’t create inflation? You certainly don’t believe that a cashless society is bad and you are happy that we will end up with only electronic money and transfers, all which can be tracked and monitored by big brother, just like with crypto currency? Printed on nothing and backed by nothing.

And no, not a conspiracy theorist. Happy to answer the lunar question - yes it was real. And no, I don’t believe Mossad was responsible for 9/11 either nor do I believe that Elvis is alive.

Can you name three of these "draconian new laws" passed in Australia? Other than the public health ones on isolation.

Clearly you didn't get the memo that the Illuminati are making their move ;-)

Too early to tell... But why not?
 

What the post-Covid aviation world looks like will depend heavily on how this crisis plays out over the next 6-18 months, or thereabouts. For example:

• is the outbreak largely controlled within 6 months, or does it linger
• is the death rate kept (relatively) low, which might limit the long-term impact on the public psyche - or is there a deep social change in mindsets about (among other things) being in close quarters on airplanes
• how deep is the economic harm, and how quick is the economic recovery - which will affect how quickly demand for travel picks back up, especially in premium classes, corporate travel and leisure travel (so most travel)
• how do the airlines fair, themselves - do they reduce fleet sizes during the shutdown, are they in a financially weak position coming out of it, how do key competitors come out of it etc.

But, I think there are a few things I'd be willing to bet on:

• demand between Australia and Asia (possibly excepting Japan) will be lower, for longer, due to perception that travel there is higher risk - that may be a problem for Qantas, which has been wanting to redeploy the A380s onto Asian routes for a while
• Qantas is going into this in a far stronger position than Virgin, and so will come out of it in a far stronger position - I'd expect Virgin to downsize aggressively (TT fleet, A330s etc) and to have limited capital to invest in 2021-23, which may allow Qantas to pick up market share and profits (Government assistance may affect this equation - it's becoming pretty clear that the Government wants to retain Virgin as a strong competitor)
• if there is a bias towards Australians travelling to Western countries (Europe, US) or Latin America/South Africa - that might boost Qantas' PS plans (provided that premium travel recovers enough to fill the large premium class sections)
• Qantas will hold onto the 747s until it can work out whether demand will pick up enough to fill the A380s.

I think some of the end games mooted in this thread are a bit OTT. I am fairly certain that confidence in flying will return pretty quickly. Right now it is very easy for people to think of a short-termist armageddon, but airlines do look at the longer term picture. People won't just stop travelling, especially with the cost base lowered even further. That said, clearly it'll take time to get up and running to full speed. In China, already you're seeing domestic traffic back up to 90% of previous levels so there's a glimmer of hope there already.

It's inevitable that some of those in the unfortunate position to be out of work right now (myself included) will not be asked back. In Europe we're seeing many airlines "not letting a good crisis go to waste", but it has been proven time and time again that the aviation industry is immensely resilient.

Whatever is left of the world's devistated economies after this history making event Aviation will take a huge hit!
It will be a brave new world, Aviation will continue on but it won't continue on for all!

Well they are very happy thoughts! Would you mind expanding on why all churches will be closed forever, money will disappear and Real Estate will crash. ( i agree it does not look good for Real Estate.. but you seem to suggesting the end of days.)

Could you kindly inform the rest of us how and why all this will happen? Im
very interested.

The crappier the world gets, the more valuable land becomes. Whether it’s value is measured in dollars or potatoes doesn’t really matter. It provides security.

Very regular SLF and reader of pprune, I registered just now to post this to tell you guys to keep your chins up. Your industry is not dead - just in hibernation. I can tell you that there are plenty of people lile me who are already waiting to get back in the air - for me I know my travel pattern will be double what it's been pre-covid. So it's not all doom and gloom! The industries suffering right now will be filled by those industries like mine that are not currently in decline.

People are forgetting that fuel is heading toward 5-10 cents a litre. That makes flying ludicrously efficient compared to most other forms of transport.

The reality is that people need money to travel, premium class more money so successful business people and retirees. Many businesses will go broke here very quickly, retirees have seen their super go backwards, 80,000 people lost their jobs yesterday alone, landlords will either get no rent or reduced rent for a long time. Realistically without a quick return to normality unemployment in Australia will probably reach 15%. The AUS$ has also lost a lot of value so IMO there will not be anywhere near the demand for international travel. The wheels of commerce have jammed up badly, this is very very serious. My estimation is that for the next 18 months Qantas will survive with 14 787s and some of their 330s.

Why not? Religion is filled with Pedo’s, are exempt from paying tax, cost the Commonwealth hundreds of millions in inquiries and they are worth billions of dollars, possibly more. Doors were shut yesterday so why not take advantage of that and leave them shut for good and take all of their money to prop up the rest of society. Got nothing to do with end of days mate. More like commonsense.

Sweet! I was waiting for the first Nostradamus thread! So, who are we backing as the Third Anti-Christ???

Qantas A380 OQI arrived in Dresden today, next inline, for the advancing fleet refurb, ferried direct from Sydney. So, the A380 is not left for dead yet, even by those planning Sunrise. For the A380, the Sydney-Darwin-London demoed over the next few days, could come back much earlier then the rest of the world, preceded by the B787 out of Perth, IF we can make the islands of Australia and UK virus free, and lock down the borders. Yes, an optimistic IF. All bets are off, until the virus is contained.

Really disappointed in the way our PM, Premiers, health ministers, doctors, the whole western world have approached this whole thing. Not one of them have said,
do not be scared of this virus what you should be scared of is your own immune system? In the past month not one mention of your own immune system.
The human body was designed with a self defence mechanism. So use it. Boost it. Food is your medicine, not the corner drug store. We all know
that any drug you take lowers your gut flora hence lowers your immune system. If your going to eat junk food, smoke, don't get enough sleep, no proper nutrition
no exercise then the coronavirus can't wait to incubate inside you. However if you do the reverse your immune system will be bullet proof. So the pollies advise
you to stay indoors get depressed, no sunlit Vit D vital for fighting infections, look at screens all day which all lower your immune system. So in one paragraph
I've mentioned immune system 5 times. I believe that's 5 nil to me health minster. I preach what I say I'm in my late 50s and never bought a drug in 20 years, only
supplements, and the last time I caught the flu was in my 20s. Don't forget to drink your 8 glasses of water too. Now if everybody did this
the virus would die in it's own tracks within weeks. Hence no one would of lost their jobs. No economy melt down.

But the cost of traveling will decrease exponentially. At the current fuel prices it will cost around $4 in fuel per pax to do something like a SYD-MEL or BNE (That's around a 700km of travel). The Fees and Taxes will start looking absolutely outrageous at those sort of fuel prices.

You sound almost as bullet proof as the school kids are - when did they give up smoking, bad food and screens?

Much of Italy and Europe in general eat very well.

Bend alot OK put it this way, when you walk down the street or do the gardening you are exposed to thousands of germs. Your immune system fights them
off. The more you boost your immune system the less sick you get. The Italians they may eat well which is good, so why are they dying. What other things
will destroy your immune system. It comes down to other things relying on drug stores, no exercise, and yes smoking. When I was in Europe last smoking was
out of control. That's another 3 to me heath minister.

You missed it - kids that only eat nuggets and chips, wrapped in cotton wool since birth and spend all day on screens are not getting sick (in any numbers so we are told).

They do the complete opposite to you, yet no recorded case even in Australia.

At over 50 you are at risk and a good diet will not help if you have underlying health issues, they can not be known to you now.

All people in Australia have a higher chance of dying from this virus in 2020 than an aircraft crash & I think we only have 7 to date from the virus, with possibly around 20 in aviation.

The outcome would differ greatly the sooner a cure or effective treatment is identified and put into practice.

(I don't have a lot of faith in our medical systems and scientists so I am not particularly optimistic on that happening sooner rather than later).

It's now a big problem and we need to be careful and avoid every kind of crowd.

The big question is of course, how long this goes on for. A vaccine available in mass quantities tomorrow would end the immediate crisis and we could concentrate on the economy, a second wave of a more severe virus strain with a higher mortality rate would plunge us into a depression that would still affect our grandchildren.

Generally people will downgrade a step or two, first class to business, business to economy, full service to low cost. Long haul holiday destination to regional, regional to domestic. The problem experienced in the UK after the financial crisis was that people's spending levels didn't instantly rebound once things improved. Money saving habits were ingrained and once it was realised that supermarket own brands did the same job as premium ones, you didn't actually need to upgrade your cell phone every year and a take away with supermarket wine was as nice as a meal in a poncy restaurant, at 1/4 of the price, it was hard to justify going back to the old ways. This was especially applicable if you were caught with your pants down financially having little in the bank and heavy monthly commitments.

After this pandemic and worldwide depression I predict a much smaller airline industry to emerge, similar to before deregulation. Airlines without a very healthy balance sheet before this started, or government backing will go under. What’s left will be nationalised or subject to heavy controls regarding routes, timetables and fares.

For most A380s it’s almost certainly long term storage for a couple of years and only back on a few limited routes where the numbers add up, if and when it does return. A small number of airlines might have the critical mass in terms of viable routes to operate them on. The B777-300 becomes the new A380

Probably the final nail for the B737 MAX as well. Why waste billions in patching up a fundamentally flawed design for which future demand has evaporated ? There may have been a case for a solution when the order book was in the thousands, but not any more. The current number of narrow bodies already flying will be able to cope with the reduced demand and the lower oil price will extend the life of the older less efficient versions. Far fewer reasons to spend on a new airframe when there isn't that much difference in the operating cost vs a 10 year old model.

The US government will likely take over Boeing due to its importance to the economy and as a defence supplier. The downturn could be used to develop an all new replacement aircraft.

I believe that the future is now all twins, with A320/B737s being used to the limits of their range and B777-200/B787s taking over from there. These types are already in existence in significant numbers and economical to operate, even though fuel price won’t be much of an issue for a while. High density seating in the narrow bodies with 10 and 9 across in the Boeings, possibly a couple of rows of business class will be the new norm. The A350 may be a better aircraft than the B787 but it won't be able to compete with second hand B777/B787s being sold at fire sale prices by bankrupt or downsizing airlines. The newer and larger Airbus variants such as the A321NEO could replace widebodies on many routes which would be unable to sustain a 300 seat aircraft.

Suites and lie flat seats won’t be filling up anytime soon. A holiday is likely to be an annual trip to a short/mid range destination on a low cost airline, rather than long haul on a premium carrier. Domestic tourism replaces international holidays for many people. Bali and Fiji become exotic destinations rather than run of the mill for Australian travellers.

bulletproof
 

Europeans tend to eat well but they smoke and drink. As far as kids go I have raised a number of them. Made them eat healthy but lot's of their friends survive on junk food and do not exercise. The general population is also addicted to pharmaceuticals which is a tragedy. People have gotten lazier and stupider. Oh well. Why are the numbers so high in Italy? Do some real looking at how they are collecting and presenting the numbers in Italy and you should be able to figure it out. This entire panic is nothing but a big cloud of bulls..t. But, yes, we needed a good flush. Something had to happen and here it is.

Are you sure you are not a direct descendent from Nostradamus? :E

I’m so glad I have got the truth from PPRUNE, not the illuminati shills...