- - Post Covid19 Aviation
(https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/630863-post-covid19-aviation.html)
f1yhigh
27th Jul 2020 03:50
Originally Posted by SecretAngel
(Post 10726079)
What the post-Covid aviation world looks like will depend heavily on how this crisis plays out over the next 6-18 months, or thereabouts. For example:
is the outbreak largely controlled within 6 months, or does it linger
is the death rate kept (relatively) low, which might limit the long-term impact on the public psyche - or is there a deep social change in mindsets about (among other things) being in close quarters on airplanes
how deep is the economic harm, and how quick is the economic recovery - which will affect how quickly demand for travel picks back up, especially in premium classes, corporate travel and leisure travel (so most travel)
how do the airlines fair, themselves - do they reduce fleet sizes during the shutdown, are they in a financially weak position coming out of it, how do key competitors come out of it etc.
But, I think there are a few things I'd be willing to bet on:
demand between Australia and Asia (possibly excepting Japan) will be lower, for longer, due to perception that travel there is higher risk - that may be a problem for Qantas, which has been wanting to redeploy the A380s onto Asian routes for a while
Qantas is going into this in a far stronger position than Virgin, and so will come out of it in a far stronger position - I'd expect Virgin to downsize aggressively (TT fleet, A330s etc) and to have limited capital to invest in 2021-23, which may allow Qantas to pick up market share and profits (Government assistance may affect this equation - it's becoming pretty clear that the Government wants to retain Virgin as a strong competitor)
if there is a bias towards Australians travelling to Western countries (Europe, US) or Latin America/South Africa - that might boost Qantas' PS plans (provided that premium travel recovers enough to fill the large premium class sections)
Qantas will hold onto the 747s until it can work out whether demand will pick up enough to fill the A380s.