737 Type Freeze coming at Qantas: Crew shortage bites?
 

From a reputable source, David Andrew has reportedly realised the scale of the shortage. All fleets at Qantas are short in most ranks, none more so than the 737. Crew shortages left uncovered lead to cancellations and this has shown an alarming increase.


Whilst union concessions will continue to be relied upon, Executive Management cannot escape the damning reality that lack of crew leads to loss of Operating Revenue. Crewing and training levels have now allegedly fallen below safe establishment levels.



Cancellations are now discussed at board meetings. There are the equivalent of 5 airframes sitting idle, as crew shortages are increasingly evident.
Operating revenue is being substantially impacted.


With no end to the structural shortage in sight, Andrew David is reported to be considering a fleet freeze for the 737. All pilots will be type frozen. Sources were reluctant to confirm a time frame.
Training resources were stretched to the limit generating around 300 pilots. Estimate north of 600 for the next period are being openly spoken about. Qantas cannot train its pilots rapidly enough.

Pilot progression was the only thing holding it all together. Qantas pilots we know endured a lost decade as JQ grew. Their careers stagnanted. They were insulted, grounded and locked out. If management actually do such a thing, it is not going to end well.


We welcome current pilots discussing such a proposal, would it work? Can it be done?

What section of the LH or SH EBA would allow this?

I agree with you, I bet AD would love it but I don’t see how you can just breach the EBA.
I’ve not had a good look at those sections though so perhaps you can show us what part will permit it.

Legislation..... 457, DEC, the whole 9 yards....

Maybe they're testing the water to see how far the pilots will cave in.

Wild guess; it's a Qantas claim in the short haul EBA. Gee, surprising, not.

Smells like a distraction

The mail I’m getting is that they are also going to go for 457 visas for direct entry 737 FOs. They just don’t get it, fix the short haul contract and the training will drop. I’m also hearing 6 787s coming from October 2019 thru to April 2020 at which point all the 747s will go. All this will do of course will make the training problem worse. I believe Joyce met AIPA on Wednesday, what was discussed I do not know.

Throw in a 10-15% payrise and it could happen, but I doubt it.;)
Unfortunately after taking to AD a couple of times I have got the impression he is not the sharpest tool in the shed despite his salary.:E

Replace nine 747s with six 787s.:ugh:
Yeah, that will solve everything!:rolleyes:

What are the crewing ratios per aircraft to generate around the clock ROI?

EG: one 787 requires 5 of each Capt, FO & SO.

I ask as this informs the level of the shortage. I.e fleet numbers vs crew.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...pilot-shortage

As we stated repeatedly to howls of protest, this shortage is global it is structural and it is demographic. Sorry detractors, but this time it is real.

Qantas management taking the traditional IR approach to this is not going to work.

That is correct.

Sources stated that the Jetconnect and Network play was aimed at establishing the narrative for direct entry contract 457 737 pilots.
Qantas were lobbying in Canberra well before Christmas. This is why it was announced in the Christmas hiatus; it caught the unions napping, digesting their Christmas pudding. From what was communicated by Qantas pilots there has been no further mention of it


Am told that there is quiet concern that this may well get out of hand..

Or perhaps, dare I say it, the current training demand has brought to light onerous provisions in the agreements which effectively magnify training requirements.

Is it reasonable to require up to 12 training movements just to replace 1 A380 Captain? All up this would easily equate to at least $600k in training cost at $50k per head (and I am being conservative).

5 B737’s laying idle represents significant wasted capital. That gets shareholder interest. The resulting reduction in capacity and consequentially full flights and yield increases means pissed off customers. Pissed off customers impact politicians as well as shareholders.

Yes the pilot shortage is a problem, unfortunately it is a also bringing to light how the agreements restrict Qantas from growing or replacing crew rapidly. You can apportion blame all you like, but managements job is to run the company, which includes resolving issues. Now that this issue has come to light, it will get scrutiny and management will seek solutions.

Either the pilots come on board with a solution, or be part of the problem. Bitching about lost decade etc. ain’t going to solve the problem.

Have a look at how they are solving the pipeline issue. The cadet program, headed by a lawyer under HR and supported by rostering department. Flight ops dealt out (despite many successful programs of the past).

The problem is real and now, get on board and you have a chance to influence the future.

Improve conditions in SH in line with LH, increase my pay (plus a bit as an incentive) and equivalent super to that of what my seniority could hold, and I'll keep my current lifestyle. Win Win.

Flight Operations dear fellow are irrelevant. The current incumbent neither directs nor assigns expenditure. There is always 'Corporate overreach'. Assigned budget is one thing, directing strategic spending quite another. They are known as figure heads for a reason: necessary but rather quiet. From memory it was Mr Strong who objected to the title of 'Director of Flight Operations'.

Of course they have a 'pipeline in mind', our sources confirm they are well aware a 'solution' if any remains years away. So naturally adversarial IR will ratchet up the rhetoric. Even Mr Joyce is not that stupid.


The board is well aware.

The key distinction to draw Arthur is they indeed have a problem. To whom that problem belongs is the distinction.
Management have the problem. Union concessions are continually granted. It is no longer of the pilot's making, nor is the pilot's concern to fix.

We do suspect you are right, idle threats are the go to tool for adversarial IR. When the screaming subsides, management will probably then appeal to the 'professionalism' of the pilots.

The possible threats inspired by Mr O'Leary's extreme union avoidance posture, which Mr Joyce aspires to, put Mr O'Leary in quite a pickle. We expect Qantas to run down the same line, as we have stated endlessly, they know no other way. For airlines have embraced globalisation, Qantas egged on by unlimited supply drove terms and conditions ever downward.


Operating Revenue declines may necessitate a call to the ASX under listing rule 3.1

Either way, the problem belongs at the feet of corporate, whom we hasten to add is a direct report to Mr Joyce. It is there that expenditure of capital has been declined repeatedly, presumably to be spent on share buy backs and other 'shareholder value generating activity'.

The problem is Arthur, the pilots can't to fix the mess, and it will cost QF many dollars if they seek this type of solution. I guess its up to them to determine what they think its worth.
I believe think this kind of agreement could be in everyones interest, if the company are willing to work with the pilots.

Like others in the QF recruitment thread have explained, some of us are very happy in SH, and only seek to move to LH for the financial security it provides. Eliminate the discrepancy and many would stay in SH forever.

There is no freeze provision in the SH EA. Freeze me, I’ll see you in court, and while I may end up staying on the 737, you’ll be paying me bypass... I’m outta here ASAP.

Of course....fix the SH EA, provide me with some protection rather than have me assume all the risk, give me proper sick leave, give me more balance throughout the rotation and a few other things, and I’m staying put. based on contribution to the bottom line, my pay and conditions should be at the very least, equal to a 330 FO. Don’t even get me started on what SO’s ‘earn’. (BTW....that’s not their fault at all, nothing against them, just a glaring example of the inadequacies and inequalities of the SH EA....how about recognising the crew who assume all the risk!!!!)

We are not experts in contracts, our sources communicated that the lobbying is taking place to somehow step around the contractual road block.

Respectfully we would suggest the nexus is the 'story' they told about Jetconnect and Network. The lack of progress recruiting 'suitable pilots' a cornerstone of their endeavour to expand the visa issue beyond what was initially stated.

As we stated at the time, it appeared they were playing checkers and the response of the union 'more akin to checkers'.

Don you may be closer the pin than you realise, the Operating Revenue losses are beginning to mount. There are material changes to trading conditions that must be reported. One may ask just how Mr Joyce 'DE-transforms' Qantas now?

It's almost like they could have foreseen this training requirement, eh

If only :hmm:

I think it’s Andrew David.

There is an operator over the road that has 700 B737 pilots. The reality is that the SH conditions and the 787/330 entry package isn’t compelling enough for most.

Likewise working in China. Close but no cigar. No one wants to put up with that crap even at 30k a month!

That is not correct. The labour agreement that Qantas have applied to Home Affairs for does not cover mainline operations. ie. Does not apply to 737.

Arthur D(aley) from Hyperspace - join date Feb'18. Probably not a person with anything more than a bonus at stake to write on these pages.

A source suggested that may be the case for a short period of time.

Simple, the trainers just refuse to train 457 visa pilots, if that means they all resign from training, that is going to really put the company in a pickle.

Time to man up and protect your future

I’ll put it to you Raded De that the only reason cancellations are being discussed at board level is because it effects Canberra and the boards mates. And that’s the 717/ DSh8 primarily . Anything else would be day of operations and wouldn’t make the minor CEO of Qantas let alone the board.

Andrew David can say all he wants but I doubt he can do much about individual awards.

Now what would AIPA agree to? Let me see Network, Jetconnect and 457 visas are on the table....

It’s always been a union for protecting the conditions of the old men on the gravey train.

“Don’t worry son you’ll be senior one day”
For anyone less than 55 that’s the 787 with no overtime no night credits. And the new award each aircraft will now be on.

The gravey train get shorter and shorter each year. As does the overtime of those on it

Rated De,
What is the connection here that you refer to? You keep mentioning Jet Connect and 457 visas. You do realise that Jet Connect is based in New Zealand and as such will definitely NOT be sourcing pilots on a 457 visa?

It ain’t five. Closer to three. And that’d be the three equivalent hulls mainline gets back by having Jetconnect pilots fly VH aircraft.

When Jetconnect and Network can’t get enough crew not sure what 457 visas will achieve. They still need to be employed under the same award as currently. That means they join as S/Os. No way would AIPA agree to a variation to permit DE 737 F/O for 457s

Maybe this is a good opportunity for QF to get serious about “short” training courses and coming up with some clever ways to utilise the relative Boeing/Airbus experience within the airline.

We all know the Certified Agreements rule the roost, but surely the pilots, AIPA and the Company can come up with a solution which sees more sensible progression. For example, 737 F/Os go to the 787 or hang around for the left seat of the 737, and the Airbus pilots do something like A380 S/O to A330 F/O and stay on that fleet for a command, rather than the ridiculous flow of people from 737 to A330 and A330 to B787. Specifically those two moves are what is really hurting the company right how.

Plenty of talk of jetconnect crewing Bne-Pom (as a start) despite the stated words in late 17 that j/c would only crew the Tasman (but apparently no assurances.....)

How about starting with 4 year freeze instead of 2.
This would have to be paid for of course!:E
This is going to be a fun year with 2 EBAs.:E

How about QF actually have realistic hiring criteria. There are plenty of experienced, able, competent & qualified drivers getting a thanks but no thanks from Qantas. Skywest doesn't seem to have problems hiring Aussies with just a resume and a skype interview, and they are many many times bigger than QF. Flying in weather and airspace we can only dream of down here in the sheltered workshop of Oz. I predict a whole lot won't ever come back from the USA. It seems like even the Boeing Chief Pilot or Chuck Yeager would have a 50/50 chance of a knockback from QF.

One change to make a cost difference in training.
In UK some airlines pay is tied to seniority not aircraft type. i.e.
A pilot with 10 year Company seniority on an A320, gets the same basic pay as someone with 10 year seniority on the A380. Flying hour pay and allowances can make a difference, with LH flying usually paying more.
The system allows a pilot who wishes to stay in the Short haul lifestyle not having to bid for LH to get the higher pay from a bigger aircraft type.. It also saves the Company multiple Type Rating courses as people move from fleet to fleet.

From a previous post, I'm amazed that a QF S/O on LH types, making no decisions and never flying the aircraft, gets paid more than a B737 FO on two pilot ops.

Put the 737 on the 787 contract ( including super)

And how do you suppose they will run jnb and scl?

And no, that can’t freeze 737 pilots

Presumably later this year, when more 787s arrive, and they pay off a bunch of 747s...there will be another RIN. I wonder if any of those newly minted 787 pilots will lose their slots to the displaced 747 people.

None of this would be happening if QF had a reasonable recruitment system, and took a few pilots every year, instead of turning the spigot on and off every decade or so.

If they RIN off the B747 quite a lot of the senior people there would be able to displace junior A380 people- and so on...
MDC for the B737 please.

No disrespect, but if Mr Yeager didn’t have a 99% likelihood of a knockback, then QF would really have to reconsider its selection criteria. Also, he’s 95, so would have to join as a direct entry FO on the 737.

They don't RIN from the top, but from the bottom. And you need to be RINned to be able to displace. So, yes, some can displace to the 380, but not a lot. On the other hand, pretty well all (from 747 and 380) could displace to the 787.

I'm probably glad that my time is just about up.

I disagree, only because I was senior on the B767 (top 20), when they RIN'd I was able to bid for the A380 and was awarded it.
I am happy for you that your time is up, because you can get before this mob totally destroy the place. Cheers.

If Mr Yeager applied with his boyfriend they would have no problems.

To the original premise by Rated De. Freezing pilots on the 737 doesn’t help with crewing the A330, 787, and A380 vacancies that exist. Those vacancies (and there are lots of them) still need to be filled. The crewing shortages are almost as bad on the A330 in any case.