Jetstar International Pax figures... WTF???
 

Ok, I have checked this a couple of times and it doesn't add up;

In the January preliminary traffic figures released by Qantas, the pax numbers given for JQ International was 358,000 pax carried at a load factor of 78.5%.

http://redirectingat.com/?id=42X4874...g-points-90%2F

At the bottom of the release was a paragraph that basically says that you only counted as a JQ Intl pax if they carried you either in or out of Australia, so JQ domestic feeders or QF codeshares should not count.

"The number of passengers carried is calculated on the basis of origin/destination (ie. one origin/destination journey represents one passenger regardless of the number of stage lengths undertaken)."

Below I have listed every scheduled JQ Intl flight that left or entered Australia in January. I took the maximum number of seats for the A320 and used the scheduled departures to arrive at a seats-per-week (spw) figure offered for each scheduled flight. i.e. Load factor 100%.

Even if a flight was actually cancelled during the month, it still appears here.

If you trust that I got them all and the arithmetic is close, feel free to skip past..

A321 SE Asia Flights Max 210 seats per A/C

DRWSIN JQ61 Daily/ 1470 spw
SINDRW JQ62 Daily/ 1470 spw
SINDRW JQ58 Daily/ 1470 spw

Total 4410 seats per week.

A320 SE Asia Flights All A320 flights use Max 177 seats.

DRWSGN JQ73 12.4.6./708 spw
DRWSIN JQ57 Daily /1239 spw
DRWDPS JQ81 Daily /1239 spw
PERCGK JQ114 1…5../ 354 spw
CGKSIN JQ114 1…5../ 354 spw
PERDPS JQ116 Daily /1239 spw
DPSSIN JQ116 1.3.56/ 708 spw
PERSIN JQ109 Daily /1239 spw
SGNDRW JQ74 12.4.6./708 spw
DPSDRW JQ82 Daily/ 1239 spw
CGKPERJQ115 …4..7 /354 spw
SINCGK JQ115 …4..7 /354 spw
DPSPER JQ117 1.3.56. /708 spw
DPSPER JQ113 .2.4..7/ 708 spw
SINDPS JQ117 1.3.56/ 708spw
SINPER JQ110 Daily/ 1239 spw

Total 13098 seats per week

A320 Tasman Flights

SYDCHC JQ143 Daily/ 1239 seats Per week
SYDCHC JQ151 ..3.5.7/531 spw
MELCHC JQ159 1..4.6./531 spw
MELCHC JQ171 12345.7/ 1062 spw
BNECHC JQ175 .23.5.7/708 spw
BNECHC JQ183 1..4.6/. 531 spw
OOLCHC JQ191 …..6./ 177 spw
OOLCHC JQ191 .2…../ 177spw
OOLAKL JQ239 Daily/ 1239 spw
SYDAKL JQ205 Daily/ 1239 spw
CHCSYD JQ140 Daily/ 1239 spw
CHCSYD JQ150 ..3.5.7/ 531 spw
CHCMEL JQ156 1..4.6./ 531 spw
CHCMEL JQ166 12345.7/ 1062 spw
CHCBNE JQ172 .23.5.7/708 spw
CHCBNE JQ182 1..4.6. / 531 spw
CHCOOL JQ190 …..6./177 spw
CHCOOL JQ190 .2…../177 spw
AKLOOL JQ238 Daily/ 1239 spw
AKLSYD JQ204 Daily/1239 spw

Total 14868 seats per week

A330 flights (303 seats per A/C)

SYDDPS JQ37 ..3.5/ 606 spw
MELDPS JQ35 .2…6./ 606 spw
MELBKK JQ29 .2.4..7/ 909 spw
SYDHKT JQ27 ..3…./ 303 spw
SYDHNL JQ3 12.4.6. / 1212/ spw
OOLKIX JQ19 Daily/ 2121 spw
CNSNRT JQ25 1..4567/ 1515 spw
CNSNRT JQ25 .23…./ 606 spw
OOLNRT JQ11 Daily /2121 spw
DPSSYD JQ38 1…..7/ 606 spw
DPSSYD JQ38 ..3.5../ 606 spw
DPSMEL JQ36 .2…6./ 606 spw
BKKMEL JQ30 .2.4..7 /909 spw
HKTSYD JQ28 ..3…. / 303 spw
HNLSYD JQ4 12.4.6. /1212 spw
KIXOOL JQ20 Daily /2121 spw
NRTCNS JQ26 1..4567/ 1515 spw
NRTCNS JQ26 .23…. /606 spw
NRTOOL JQ12 Daily /2121 spw

Total 20604 Seats per week

Total seats offered per week on Jetstar International flights to and from Australia = 52980

Seats offered per day= 7568

Total seat offered for January 2010= 234625

Claimed numbers carried = 358,000

Claimed load factor= 78.5

Actual Pax numbers if Load factor correct= 184500 approx.

Jetstar had a fleet of 34 A320's 6 A321's and 6 A330's in January. If the ENTIRE fleet was available for the month with no maintenance planned, it comes out at a little over 9000 seats available on J* aircraft each day.

If JQ actually did carry 358,000 pax at a load factor of 78.5% then actual seats required to be offered to achieve that = Approx 450,000 seats per month or 14500 per day!

That equates to about 75% of the seats that would be available from the entire fleet doing a typical two sector Intl day.

Keep in mind also that the claimed figures for JQ DOM in January were 746,000 pax for a combined monthly total of just over 1.1 million.

The JQ DOM Load Factor was 81.8%. To achieve 746,000 pax at a load factor of 82% requires approx 930,000 seats per month to be offered or another 30,000 seats per day!

Is it possible to offer 44500 seats per day on a fleet that size, especially when over half your ASK's are on long haul and regional flights?

I am not having a dig at JQ staff here, and I hope someone will come along and poke a big hole in these figures. The only possible hole I see is that the preliminary figures do not include JQ NZ DOM figures.

Nor should they; they have nothing to do with passengers carried in and out of Australia.

QF domestic codeshares should also not raise the INTL figures due to the covering paragraph. I am not sure about the DOM figures, but considering most, if not all Qantas/JQ codeshare pax are travelling on a QF flight to catch a JQ Intl flight, then they shouldn't count as extras either.

So how can JQ Intl offer 234000 published seats in a month and claim to carry 358,000 passengers in that same month?

What about the DOM figures... how are they possible with the fleet size and the Intl commitment? I look forward to some interesting answers from ppruner's.

Probably because they count a whole lot of Jetstar pax that actually travel on QF services, even though they booked Jetstar, as usual a massive subsidy service.

Send it all to Ben Sandilands. He and the rest of the Crikey team love stuff like this.

WOW! You must have a lot of spare time on your hands. :8

You've included the flights below in your calculations;

No Aussie soil involved in these flights. :=

Good bit of detective work there Capt Kremin. Do you think it's likely they've also added in the figures for J* Asia?

You may be missing the DRWSIN flight which changes to JQ58?

Tail Wheel, thanks. Yes I missed that one. Amend seats offered per month to 241135.

Mister Hilter. The J* Asia numbers are included separately, elsewhere in that release.

Spanner Turner. I was conservative so I included those flights as they mave have pax complexing through DPS and CGK. However they should be counted on the flights to get them to and from those two ports I guess. Leave it in to be conservative.

AOA. As far as I am aware, no J* Intl passengers are carried on QF Intl flights. If they were then those flight should be on the published J* Intl schedule.
J* Intl pax ARE carried on QF DOM services but only to get them to ports that have J* Intl flights operating from them. e.g. CBR-SYD-CHC. Therefore they should have been counted under the covering paragraph.

Kremin, if I interpret your analysis correctly, it would indicate:
358,000 - 244135 = +113,865 more claimed filled seats than could actually possibly exist for the month of January for J* international. Is this correct?

Out of interest 78.5% of 244,135 = 191,646

THE THE said;
Well sir, so must you if you have time to look and post on PPrune. Could it be that people like you are to lazy to do the same hard work as Capt Kremin?

It's to bad more people don't get involved with this type of investigative work to keep the "bastards" honest.

This joker must have mental problems. How long did this take? Get a life son. This is way too sad.

Tunedog, do you actually have anything meaningful to add?

91.3%, does that strike you as worth questioning? Or would you just swallow it hook line & sinker?

Kremin's either right or wrong. If he is wrong, yes, what a waste of time. What if he is right, would that be a waste of time too? The answer to these questions could have significant ramifications.

Yeah that's right Qantas making figures up for the ASX. Yep you guys know more.

Rubbery Figures for the ASX
 

Wouldnt be the first time that spurious figures have been presented to the ASX.
Certainly wont be the last

HIH, Lehman Brothers, Enron, worldcom, do I need to go on.
Yeh, they did just make it up, and they were all listed companies, including the ASX. Some of the perpetrators even went to gaol.

Great piece of sleuth work Kremin. . . and yes, I think that is the conclusion breakfastburrito.

I re-read the Qantas Group announcement looking for a 'sneaky' line which might account for the discrepancies . . . perhaps this is it? Despite the release portending to be about the Group defined as . . .

. . . a later sentence implies that Jetstar Asia’s number are also included

I'm guessing Jetstar Asia's numbers have been bundled in with Jetstar International?

The context of these selected quotes are provided in context below (my bold/italic).

Just a thought?

Is it possible that NZ domestic is included in international (ie not Aust domestic)? This would also help explain the high increas in international PAX

breakfastburrito HIH, Lehman Brothers, Enron, worldcom,

I think son you will find those componies had very complex balance sheets. Simply bulls$%tting monthly figures by JQI as the Kremin dude so easily worked out simply does not gel and Q would not get away with it.

Next please!:ugh:

Capt Kremin has done some work on this. Accurate or not I don't know but it does raise a debate and he presents his workings.
777, you just going to bleat and call people son or are you going to debunk the figures with more than just name calling? If not Kremin wins one nil by TKO

What about adding Jetstar Pacific and Jetstar Asia?

ozbiggles,

Don't waste your time. All of tooldog's posts are about sledging, condescending, pontificating and generally making a prick of himself. Then when someone asks him a straight to the point question, such as yours, he'll disappear off into the ether, not to be heard of again til the next thread.

Apparently there are no mirrors in your house.

J* Asia's figures are incorporated in the release. If you add all the figures they match the Group Total at the bottom of the document.

The clue is on the Jetstar website.

Jetstar Route Map - Flight Information - Travel Information - Jetstar Airways

The services that Jetstar apparently consider to be Jetstar International are the ones I have counted PLUS Jetstar NZ DOM. Must be something about a common aviation market I guess.

That doesnt solve the discrepancy however. In January JQ NZ had 131688 seats available for a JQ INTL total of 371840. With a 78.5% Load factor that means they carried 291895 pax. A discrepancy of 66,000 passengers on the official figures!

Tunedog, I am simply trying to explain some figures which, prima facie, do not tally. The work took me about 1.5 hours to gather and collate, something that no aviation journalist seems to be capable of doing.... I printed it here so people could see and check my working.

Its not rocket science when you have the schedules available.

breakfastburrito
Some of the perpetrators even went to goal.

Was it for offside.

adsyj, yes, one that got passed the keeper... tish boom

Fantastic work Capt Kremin. The concocted figures show us what a sham the whole Jetstar operation is.You have showed Qantas/Jetstar management at its finest.It is all done with smoke and mirrors.The master plan and the aspirations of the bastard child are obvious.The bastard child of the group has only one purpose , to smash the unionised workforce at QF.The brand, like "No Name" spaghetti , has not one loyal customer. It is valueless.Any figures released are to be taken with a grain of salt.When it achieves critical mass it will be buried, the red and white paint bought out , the orange and silver obliterated. No one will miss it.

Does J* code share on any inbound or outbound QF flights? Could this be the extra seats?

A lot of effort Captain Kremin, well done.

I am a bit frantic right now but will have a look at the numbers and your analysis and see if I can help find a way out of this seeming paradox.

Have to say up front though that I really doubt the answer is going to be in deliberate porkies being told by Qantas to the ASX. That way lies jail and I really don’t think anyone’s that company minded!.

As for the numbers. Til I get a chance to look closely I can’t comment.
But as for methodology…..a couple of points…..there are many caveats but these are a start.

First…..grown men have over the years lost their marbles over attempting to track what constitutes “ a passenger”. Is it:

• An occupied seat for a take off and landing on one sector?
• A person traveling from A to B through any number of intermediate stops, flight number changes and stopovers?
• Ditto….within the one 24 hour period?
• Seat occupied on the same flight number no matter how many stops?
• Etc etc

Second…..be very careful in using “Load Factor” for analysis. It is not simply the ratio of seats occupied to seats available (though for a given flight that is usually true). Load Factor is more usually defined as the ratio of Passenger Kilometres (either revenue or total) to Available Seat Kilometres. So an airline operating lots of short range flights that are largely full and a few long range flights that are only half full might sell way over 75% of all available seats but maybe only 60% of all available seat kilometers.

Anyway….I will look though the numbers and see what the aging Sherm brain can add to the discussion if anything.

Yes

Kremin dude discovers JQ fraud. Yeah I guess the JQ and Q management weren't counting on conscientious dude such as yourself.

The way you guys band together and believe everything your fellow pilot mate state makes me laugh even harder. I tell you pilots and the business world do not match.

Next please:p

sherm
 

I have no doubt jq numbers are correct in some form. As you say there are many ways to count a pax and they will bend over backwards to make them look as good as possible using a plausible method.

Many asx listed companies do what they can to attract attention of investors to put the best gloss possible on their numbers.

You can forget about the asx and asic they are toothless tigers.
They admit they do not have the people or money to chase everything and have come off second best in some high profile cases of late.

I admire kremin for at least trying to dissect their numbers.:ok:
The more scrutiny the better and not just for jq or qf.

Who said all of us believe Capt Kremin?
However he has presented a case, showed his working and allowed for a debate to be held on the issue.
777 has just allowed us to see what happens when a circus loses its clown.
The only real difference is a clown is funny.....and probably has some debating skill

Why don't you guys go to the Crikey website and type in "Jetstar" on the search page?

From Crickey...

Qantas has been quoting NZ Domestic passengers and Australian Domestic passengers who travel internally on a flight with a JQ International flight number as JQ International passengers.

Jetstar International didn't carry 358,000 people in and out of Australia in January, they carried 195,000.

Jetstar International are not the third largest International Airline operating in and out of Australia.

Jetstar International didn't grow 100% since January 2009, most if not all that growth came from their replacement of Qantas NZ with Jetstar Domestic NZ, and then quoting those domestic passengers as Jetstar International Passengers.

Good work CK, we all smelt the stench of a rat when J* figures were released, but you quantified it and just showed how much smoke and mirrors are thrown around the joint! :ok:

Jetstargate
 

Some major discrepancies in the figures . Not just a little fudging.
Captain Kremin has struck a blow for honesty and integrity . . He has revealed the compliant , worthless journalistic hacks that mindlessly regurgitate QF/J* press releases into main stream media without any interest in researching the facts. He has revealed the QF public relations spin doctors for what they are. Snake oil salesman .Now that the ASX is involved , as Keg suggested ,these masters of spin in the QF bunker will need to think twice before releasing any dodgy figures.Let's see what the fallout is.Let's see where the rotting stench emanates from.Thank you PPruNe and Captain Kremin. Jetstargate is getting really interesting.

This is too funny. You honestly think the Kremin dude knows the facts. I think a bunch of sheep comes to my mind. Bah bah

Tunedog. Qantas confirmed my analysis was correct to Crikey. So yes, I do know the facts.

So far Kremin is the only one posting any hard numbers. If his numbers are incorrect then point out how exactly. At the moment you've got nothing. The reality is that most people have looked at Kremin's numbers and found them to be pretty good.

Compare that to how you obviously believe the spin out of QF. Who's the sheep in reality? :rolleyes:

I note that Ben Sandilands has either been trolling PPRUNE or someone has contacted him as he's got an article on Crikey about Kremin's numbers:

I registered on the trial to have a look at his comments but it's not working as advertised.

So, does anyone have the additional bits and pieces to this start:

I'd be interested in Ben's take on the numbers. If his analysis confirms Kremin's it may be worth forwarding the info to AIPA. I've got no problems with J* being talked up but I'm certainly not impressed at having it talked up to this extent to the detriment of mainline with the sorts of distortions that appear to be going on here.

Qantas cooking the books on passenger numbers
 

Ben Sandilands writes:

JETSTAR, QANTAS

Qantas is inflating its stock exchange filings of monthly data for its Jetstar International operations with those of its Jetstar New Zealand domestic operation.

The anomalous figures have been referred to the ASX following an analysis of the January traffic figures by "Captain Kremin", a regular poster on Pprune.org, the Professional Pilots Rumour Network.

For the month of January, Qantas claimed to have boarded 358,000 paying passengers on Jetstar International flights to or from Australia with a revenue load factor of 78.5%. However, Kremin added up all of the seats available on Jetstar International flights. "This is physically impossible to achieve with JQ's Australian fleet and schedules," he found.

"Analysis of the Jetstar schedules shows a massive shortfall in the number of available seats on purely international flights in and out of Australia. There were only approximately 241,000 seats available on those flights in January."

His argument is that Jetstar is not only counting those flown trips entirely within New Zealand but those flying on Australian domestic services that connect with, or continue as, Jetstar International flights. He points out anyone can book a purely domestic seat on these feeder flights, mainly Sydney-Melbourne, and be counted as an international passenger.

Captain Kremin, who has been a thorn in the side of Qantas online for some time, said: "Failure to acknowledge that approximately half of their passengers are flown on domestic sectors in Australia and, incredibly, New Zealand, is misleading at best. Perhaps it is also something that investors should be informed about.

"If I am right the they only carried approximately 190,000 passengers in and out of Australia in January instead of the 358,000 they are attempting to project."

The apparent exaggeration of Jetstar International’s success will be a sore point with those Qantas employees who argue the company is transferring massive assets or subsidies into the low-cost subsidiaries operations in order to hollow out and collapse the terms and conditions under which they work.

This child-eating-the-parent concern is very widespread in a Qantas that is now the junior source of profits for the group.

In response, a Qantas spokesperson conceded Kremin’s analysis of the figures was correct, but defended its inclusion of purely NZ domestic statistics in its international figures as something it had always done.

Qantas also said all passengers on board domestic flights in the Qantas or Jetstar brands that carried international flight numbers for a service with an ultimate destination overseas were counted as international, even if they were getting off before the flight left Australia. (This would have the effect of depressing the reported market share of Qantas compared to Virgin Blue.)