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Recession, war and the airlines

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Recession, war and the airlines

Old 29th Sep 2022, 13:59
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Recession, war and the airlines

I made the mistake of checking the news after accepting an airline job. What’s everyone’s predictions for the Australian airlines surviving 2023 with a potential recession and/or war ?
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 01:38
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Originally Posted by fwypwane View Post
I made the mistake of checking the news after accepting an airline job. What’s everyone’s predictions for the Australian airlines surviving 2023 with a potential recession and/or war ?
🤷‍♂️ In my 30 years in the industry the surest sign of a coming economic shock has been the airlines hiring pilots flat out. They’re always behind the curve.
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 01:43
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Find a partner with a stable job and good income who can supplement an income in the early years and step up during the down turns or periods of no employment.
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 01:56
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Or you can just not read the news. They always make it sound like the world is about to end.
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 02:24
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If your job is primarily domestic flying that’ll probably be more resilient than international flying in a recession.

The amount of capacity in the Australian domestic market is still less than 2019 so technically it has “receded” yet airlines are still hiring. We did have a lot of retirements in the last two years so those people have to be replaced to return to 2019 levels.

Australia will be less affected by what’s happening in the northern hemisphere, and more affected by what’s happening in our region. When the GFC hit there were no mass layoffs in Australian aviation. For the most part hiring did slowdown, but no redundancies, so the fact you’ve gotten a job already is good.
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 02:25
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Join Atlas or National and fly shelf-expired munitions of war to Eastern Europe. It won’t be over by Xmas.
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 03:32
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Originally Posted by Gnadenburg View Post
Join Atlas or National and fly shelf-expired munitions of war to Eastern Europe. It won’t be over by Xmas.
That would be painting a hot red [email protected] target on your ass would it. Flying munitions during a full scale war would be the last thing you'd want to be doing.

If you do take it on and fly near a hot zone dont let them talk you into low valley approaches as safe. A goat herder with an rpg can hit a low slow transport, let alone a trained soldier. Ask some of the early herc pilots into Afghanistan how that went...
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 05:48
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One thing to be sure of is, where a downturn occurs in one place there's always an upturn somewhere else.
Accordingly, remaining up to date and flexible with such variations will see your employment continue in these upturns. The only problem is many can't keep moving around the globe chasing employment due to family commitments etc. KAPAC has good advice above in that regard, though I am yet to find such a partner... could be coz I'm ugly
Those with a keen eye and up with news might have noticed Indonesia, Vietnam and India as the three largest markets awakening to online shopping and rising middle-class spending...
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 07:40
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with a potential recession and/or war ?
It is fascinating how the media has everyone frightened of recession. Just like the record interest rate rises we have had, rising up to still very low rates. The good news does not sell.

What does a recession actually mean? Just that the economy is not growing.

If you are in a stable job guess what? You are usually better off as prices fall. I saw first hand what the mining boom of 2010-2014 did to prices in Perth. Crazy food and drink prices everywhere. As soon as the boom ended, prices fell and a few people had to chnage jobs.

A recession will not hit travellers in Australia hard so unlikely to make a dent in flying numbers.

This graph shows how something as catastrophic globally as Covid still did not stop a rapid recovery in numbers...



This graph covers , that year, the 1990s recession we had to have, bird flu, GFC...






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Old 30th Sep 2022, 09:07
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Airline activity in Australia is a strange situation compared to global aviation. The industry is hamstrung by facility congestion, so peak times always have significant custom. There's probably another 30% of domestic trunk route tickets that could be sold if there was capacity at the right times to sell it, so in downturns these gravy times are never really going to see much decline as there is significant excess market to fuel it. International is a different ballgame, and ebbs and flows with economic terms as most routes are saturated with wide body internationals.
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Old 30th Sep 2022, 14:11
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43 Inches -
That would be painting a hot red [email protected] target on your ass would it. Flying munitions during a full scale war would be the last thing you'd want to be doing.

If you do take it on and fly near a hot zone dont let them talk you into low valley approaches as safe. A goat herder with an rpg can hit a low slow transport, let alone a trained soldier. Ask some of the early herc pilots into Afghanistan how that went...


Such an asinine statement. You know nothing.....
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Old 1st Oct 2022, 00:09
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Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc View Post
43 Inches -



Such an asinine statement. You know nothing.....
I guess you havn't seen the actual pictures of the burning transports that were hit on approach until they changed the approach path to a high diving one specifically to avoid RPGs . Of course cant post pics as it was 'classified'. Then there was the 747 stall due to loading issues, and the Airbus that ended up in a minefield after being shot down by a SAM. But hey, you can believe hauling into hot zones is safe if you want.

You think these freight operaters will be safe in a full blown war when they stuff up regularly in peace time, with regular hull losses. If you are going to do it, keep your wits about you and monitor the loads personally. Theres a lot more traps than passenger bussing.
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Old 1st Oct 2022, 01:53
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Take a chill-pill. I was being satirical and well-indicating of the still very low risk of flying freight and coming to grief some ways from a war zone. Not sure we needed to get all serious? The Russian threat is far more reaching than Afghanistan. At a guess, I doubt 747’s loaded with Javelins or Vietnam-era artillery rounds would be landing in the Eastern Ukraine.

Still, if a young Aussie pilot, go abroad when you can. A lifetime flying domestically would be unfortunate.
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Old 1st Oct 2022, 02:23
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On statistics flying large cargo aircraft is far more dangerous than passenger hauling. There are far fewer cargo flights than passenger flights and much higher accident rates. This is due to a number of factors, not least of which being the cargo itself is more hazardous and liable to gross errors that are just not encountered on passenger flights. The UPS 747 freighter lithium battery fire a prime example and the National Air 747 crash at Kandahar due poor loading are two of the most notable but it doesn't take long to find hundreds of accidents even in recent times. The loss rate of 747s alone is huge, with at least two crashed at Halifax due loading and runway issues. The other big issue is the working conditions, long hours at night, with a lot of monotony, meaning tired pilots making mistakes on load sheets and bad decision making, as highlighted in the Halifax crashes.

I'm not saying these things to exaggerate or scare, its to highlight the threats you face doing this type of flying, which is not commonplace in passenger operations.

Contract freighters into warzones are another thing all together, at present Russia is only at war with Ukraine, not its suppliers. In Afghanistan all aircraft were targets so contract and military alike were targeted and downed. A loaded large jet with weapons is an easy target and things would be much different if the war became global, and Russia lost the plot completely. Then there's just sabotage to these supply chains as well if it goes global. Let's face it none of us have lived through a global world war, so it's easy to forget what happens when everything becomes a fair game target. The US lost a lot of transports in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, just with local issues. Most don't even realise that the US lost almost 800 F-4 Phantoms and 31 B-52s in Vietnam because they are good at confusing the numbers.

Global war is unlikely, if we believe the news Russia has lost almost all it's capacity to fight its small front in Ukraine, so the idea they will spread to other fronts is very low anyway.
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Old 1st Oct 2022, 02:41
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747F is a very, very low risk job. And I just pub tested it. None of the pilots present knew anybody killed flying 747F but we all knew people killed in GA & the military. 🤪
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Old 1st Oct 2022, 02:44
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On that pub test GA in Australia is way more dangerous than flying for the RAAF. Guess we should allow F-35s as GA aircraft.
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Old 1st Oct 2022, 03:03
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That’s an odd connection.

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Old 1st Oct 2022, 10:18
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It is going to be a bloody mess, as it has been stated above though, Australasia has generally been pretty resilient to worldwide recession. The UK and USA will be a bloodbath with furlough being the word by Christmas. Of course the other option is that Putin will claim the win at home with the new territory and won't push any further except to reinforce the new border and the West will protest but won't push Ukraine to retake it and the whole thing will fizzle combined with a Worldwide recovery as stability returns...... Thats the excitment of the current mix of events, we actually have no idea.
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Old 1st Oct 2022, 13:28
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Afghanistan was a great place to fly, and leaving the military to fly as a contractor was great too. Shootdowns in Afghan were actually very rare. Iraq was worse, but that abated. I actually felt much safer doing that kind of flying than I ever did in GA in Australia. More mates have been killed flying in GA too.

Civil aviation is going to continue to be a tough gig, recession, war or boom. Salaries and conditions are not improving in real terms ever again, even if the market booms. If that's what you want to do, enjoy the good times but otherwise embrace the suck.
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Old 1st Oct 2022, 15:50
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When has the world ever been stable?

Chaos is the new normal.

Live your life without worrying about the click-bait view of the world. You will be a lot happier
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